NBA Power Poll #14

1. San Antonio Spurs (40-7): According to my rudimentary math skills this is a team on pace for 69.7 wins, or just about 70.  I've speculated that they can't keep up this level of play all year, but we are over half way through the year and they haven't showed any signs of slowing down.

2. Boston Celtics (36-11): Kendrick Perkins is back surprisingly soon from a horrific injury and playing very well.  This team has so many good role players to compliment the big four, yet Perkins is one of the most vital.  He is a boulder defensively, and when he shoots (rarely), it goes in.  The Celtics and Lakers have dominated the NBA over the past four years, but it has always seemed that Boston is the slightly better team.  Evidence this last game: Down the stretch it's Kobe shooting wild shots and going 1-on-5 while the Celtics move the ball, find the open man, and take good shots.  The Lakers have a very high ceiling when they are on their game, but the Celtics have a more consistent formula.

3. Chicago Bulls (33-14): Joakim Noah just got his cast off, the Bulls have won 5 straight, and Derrick Rose is playing despite two stomach ulcers!  This team is the current two seed out east, which means if things hold, the Heat would have to play as the lower seed against this uber-talented Bulls team in the East Semis.  By that time Noah will be back.  The Heat have struggled dealing with good opposing centers, not to mention good opposing point guards.

4. New Orleans Hornets (31-17): Shhh!  Has anyone noticed the Hornets have won nine of ten and are the best defensive team in the league?

5. Miami Heat (33-14): They've been banged up, but you can judge them as a whole right now.  They had everybody back against the Thunder on Sunday and survived a raucous environment to get the win.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (33-15): They haven't played many elite teams this year, and when they have, they've mostly lost those games.  The Spurs, Heat, Celtics, Mavs twice, Nuggets, Jazz, and Bulls have all beaten the Lake Show.  This Sunday against the Celtics they really only had one good stretch of 8-10 minutes when they shared the ball and looked great.  Other than that they wasted possessions, forgot to rotate on defense, etc.  This is not the same team as last year, but they have the ability to round into form.

7. Dallas Mavericks (31-15): I dropped this team from the rankings for a while because they lost Caron Butler (in my mind taking them out of true contender status), didn't have Dirk Nowitzki, and were playing awful.  They've since gotten Nowitzki back and won four straight.  But is this really a team capable of winning a couple series in the playoffs?  I think not.

8. Orlando Magic (30-17): The new faces have settled and this team now simply has to produce.  Does anyone else still get the feeling that, while they may be more talented now, they are still short on mental toughness and leadership?

9. Oklahoma City Thunder (30-17):  The Thunder did lose to the Heat Sunday, but Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are just a ridiculous young combination.  If this duo stays together for the next 5-7 years, I see at least one championship.

Adam: -I am going to start reserving the "tenth spot" in my power poll for a team that is rising, had a really nice week, or has something noteworthy going on despite not being high in the standings.

+1. Sacramento Kings: Sacramento's beaten the Blazers and Lakers on the road and the Hornets at home all in the last week.  That's three tremendous wins for a team that easily could be mailing it in at this point.  One big reason for their recent success: Demarcus Cousins is averaging 19 and 8 over his last five games.  A lot people want to ride this guy for perceived attitude issues, lack of work ethic, or not living up to his enormous potential.  Give the kid a minute fellas; he's 20 years old.

--from Adam

Season Profile: Green Bay Packers

Full circle.

That was the only way to describe the Packers' victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round three weeks ago.  In the first game of the regular season the Packers also played the Eagles, knocking then starter Kevin Kolb from the game, and in effect creating the monster they faced seventeen weeks later.  The injury to Kolb vaulted Michael Vick back into the limelight, and he performed like an MVP all year.

That first game also foretold much about what kind of season the Packers would endure.  They were going to have to earn it every week and without many of their best players.  Ryan Grant sustained a season-ending injury in the season opener.  Promising rookie safety Morgan Burnett, uber-athletic tight end Jermichael Finley, and heart of the defense Nick Barnett were all essentially done for the year after Week 4.  Mark Tauscher hasn't played since Week 9.  Aaron Rodgers suffered two concussions on the year, missing an entire game after getting knocked out of another contest at Detroit.  Al Harris never fully recovered from '09 knee surgery and was released.  Atari Bigby again sat out much of the season.  Johhny Jolly wasn't injured, but he was guzzling codeine syrup like he had an untreated broken leg.  He was dismissed from the team.  Donald Driver lost games to a quad injury.  The Packers' only talented running back on the current roster was physically unable to perform the first half of the season due to a hamstring injury.

Looking at the Packers in the preseason, they struck you as a championship caliber team because of the players I just mentioned, yet most of those men made little or no contribution to this year's team.  Andrew Quarless, Sam Shields, Tramon Williams, Desmond Bishop, Erik Walden, Brian Bulaga, James Starks, Matt Flynn; all these men filled in for injured players and did their jobs admirably.  The reason the Packers have made it this far is because of their astonishing depth, perseverance, and coaching.  Having #12 doesn't hurt either.

If the injury bug didn't test the Packers resolve, close loses would.  Green Bay shot out of the gate with a nice win at Philly and a home route of the hapless Bills.  Following that though, they lost in the ugliest game of the year, committing nineteen penalties against the Bears.  After a skin of their teeth win over the Lions, the Packers lost back-to-back overtime games to the Dolphins and Redskins.

Want to end a coach's career?  Call this guy.

After those loses the Packers seemed to find themselves and established a new identity amidst all the new faces.  They now knew how to use the personnel they did have, and Rodgers became more comfortable with his supporting cast.  In a three week period the Packers shut out the Jets, annihilated the Cowboys and ended Wade Phillips' head coaching stint, and blew the doors off of Brett Favre's career/exercised every single one of Rodgers' demons with a 28-point drubbing of the Vikings in Minnesota, a blowout that also signaled Brad Childress' termination as head coach.

They then rode into Atlanta on a considerable hot streak to face the Falcons, a matchup that many thought might occur again in the playoffs.  They lost in a nail bitter that, as was the case in all their games this year, the Packers really could have won.

They followed that loss with an easy home victory over the 49ers.  The only noteworthy development in that game was the emergence of rookie running back Starks.  Seeing his first action of the season, Starks ran for 73 yards on 18 carries.  And I was there too!

The next two weeks would have Packer nation soiling their trousers as Rodgers got knocked out of the Lions game and missed the Patriots game as well.  Flynn though, stepped in and played astonishingly well given the circumstances of that game.  (Trade bait! Trade bait! Trade bait!  Maybe we can squeeze out a second round pick for him!)

After the Patriots loss, it was hard to be upset with the team because they had played so well without their best player, but it was easy to be upset at all the things that had gone wrong for the Pack this year.  They lost six games by a combined 20 points.  That's unreal.  They never got blown out; they never even lost by a touchdown.  They were in every game, they had more key injuries than almost any other team, and now because of dumb luck, it looked like the Packers would miss the post season party.

Green Bay would have to win out, albeit at home, against two teams (Giants and Bears) with playoff positioning of their own to accomplish.  Luckily for Packer fans, Rodgers came back from his concussion and was simply unconscious.  Every throw was a dart, a laser, and a perfect decision.  Green Bay throttled the Giants, survived the Bears, and punched their playoff ticket.

As if they their last two games weren't asking enough, the Packers opened the postseason in Philadelphia against a team many thought had the chops to make the Super Bowl.  Vick was the story of the year, and the Eagles were perhaps the most explosive team in the league.  Yet the Packers once again found a way, not a conventional way, but just some way to win.  Starks re-emerged and had a dominant game running the ball.  The defense was terrific all day, Rodgers was surgical, and Williams, in what would become a theme, made the game-saving play.  Williams intercepted Vick at the tail end of the fourth quarter and sealed the game.

Winning in the playoffs is like being a kid and having your parents say, "I'm so proud of you, as a reward go do your homework and finish your chores."  The Packers beat the Eagles, and their reward was a trip to Atlanta to play the best team in the NFC, the best home team in the NFL.

Game Over

The game started as a see-saw battle with both teams trading scores.  Then it seemed Atlanta may have made the play of the day when they returned a kickoff for a touchdown, making the score 14-7.  Williams also made a touchdown-saving interception early in the game, plus took another interception back for a touchdown as time expired in the first half.  Amazingly, Williams was the playoff MVP to this point, despite the unrelenting greatness of Rodgers.  The Packers grabbed a two score lead with the Williams pick six and never looked back.

Rodgers put on as good a performance as I've ever seen from the quarterback position.  31/36  for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns.  A couple of guys dropped balls.  It was as close to flawless as possible in the biggest game of the year, the highest level of football.  It was greatness, pure and simple.

After eviscerating the Falcons, the Packers entered the NFC Championship Game with momentum and the support of Vegas oddsmakers.  The 183rd matchup of the Packers and Bears would be for a trip to the Super Bowl; the oldest rivalry in football would decide who would play for the biggest prize in sports.

The Bears had reached this apex moment through a lot of luck, sporadic offense, and a good but not great defense.  This Bears group was not a great team.   They faced four backup quarterbacks during the regular season, and had only to beat Seattle–the worst playoff team ever–to get to the NFC Title Game.  Jay Cutler is an average quarterback, and the Bears have a bad offensive line and no real threats at receiver.  They can return punts and shut you down on defense for the most part, but that's about it.

The Packers struggled to close the game out, but that's to be expected in a cold, road environment against a team that knows you inside and out.  Though it was the game with the biggest stakes to this point, it was also the game I felt most confident the Packers would win.  The Eagles and Falcons, in my mind, represented much more difficult opponents.  Bottom line: The Packers beat their bitter rivals in an ugly game that made Packers fans think, "Thank God the Super Bowl will be played indoors."  And with visions of the Georgia Dome dancing in their heads, that is what now awaits the Packer faithful.

Green Bay traveled a treacherous path to get this far, but the biggest challenge lies ahead.  The vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers, winners of six Super Bowls, and perhaps football's most storied franchise–if they aren't the Packers are–stand in Green Bay's way of history.  The Steelers possess the best defense in the NFL, a seasoned and talented coaching staff, and a roster full of guys that have reached this pinnacle moment before, including a quarterback with two rings already.  On the other hand, the Packers have just two guys that have ever played in a super bowl, Ryan Pickett and Charles Woodson, and they both lost when they got there.  The Packers are in for a heavyweight title fight with the baddest team in the league, but if this year has taught us anything about Green Bay, it's that they know how to fight.

Pittsburgh won the last Packer-Steeler matchup, a 2009 barn burner

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com)

Season Profile: Pittsburgh Steelers

You may ask yourself, how did I get here?  Well that is a question we are asking of both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers as both parties ascend to the ultimate stage in professional sports.  The story of an NFL season certainly breaks down into chapters, some tumultuous, some rewarding, some exhilarating, and some gut-wrenching.  Awaiting one of these teams is their dream captured, the other their dream shattered.  But before we attack the Mount Everest of game breakdowns, predictions, and analysis that is the Super Bowl, let's take a look at each team's path navigating through an NFL season.

Here is the Steelers' road to the Super Bowl.

The Steelers had a horrific offseason, one that seemed to set the stage for a down year.  Ben Roethlisberger got himself in yet another sticky situation, starting left tackle Willie Colon sustained a season ending injury in offseason workouts, and off the field troubles ran Santonio Holmes out of town, traded to the Jets for a fifth round pick.  With Roethlisberger's league-mandated 6-, later shortened to 4-game suspension, the Steelers began the year playing musical quarterbacks, trying Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch, and even a spot of Byron Leftwich.  And despite the lack of stability or talent at quarterback, they got off to an impressive 3-1 start that made everyone think, "What are they going to do once they get their best player back?"  Well, what they did was finish 12-4 with just one road loss.

The Punisher: Troy Polamalu

Defense, as always for the Steelers, was the defining characteristic of this team.  Even without Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh's defense was so good that they carried the team to a Week 1 win over the eventual #1 seed in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons.  Blitzburgh was back in a big way all year with a ferocious pass rush, the flying mass of hair that is Troy Polamalu, and a stifling run defense that allowed a paltry 60 rushing yards per game.

Examining the Pittsburgh defense, one must take into account its architect, Dick LeBeau.  LeBeau is as good a football mind as their is.  At 71 years of age, he has seen everything in his career yet still remains innovative on the cutting edge of  the game.  His scheme is designed solely to unsettle the quarterback.  But not only do the Steelers do an excellent job giving opposing passers different looks, they also stop the run better than any team in the league.  Throw in the versatile, experienced personnel of Polamalu, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, Lamar Woodley, James Harrison,and Casey Hampton, and you have a unit that single handedly dominates a game.

When the Steelers actually lost games this year, they looked ugly, but you always got the feeling that they had a playoff gear that they could switch to.  Since Week 11 the Steelers have lost just once, a Week 15 AFC Championship precursor to the Jets, a game they easily could have won.

Guiding Steelers ship through murky offseason

Along the way to the Super Bowl, even though the Steelers suffered more injuries to their offensive line (Flozell Adams and Maurkice Pouncey), secondary (Polamalu), and defensive line (Aaron Smith), consistency has been the name of the game.  Luckily for Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin is a master at maintaining a consistent approach.  Exhibit A: No starting left tackle, no starting quarterback and they still start the year 3-1 ping ponging between Dixon, Leftwich, and Batch.  The Steelers also survived huge offseason controversy never losing focus on anything but winning football games.

12-4 is a record that indicates consistency.  You can't have any sustained losing or even flat play and finish the year with a 12-4 record.  This year they lost to the Saints, Patriots, Ravens, and Jets.  All elite teams, all playoff teams.  They didn't have any "bad losses."  In other words they never lost to a bad team or a team they clearly should have beaten.  To me that's coaching.  Sure they have some very good players, but so do the Jets, so do the Chargers, so do the Ravens, so do the Falcons, so do the Eagles, and yet here stand the Steelers.  Again.  This is Tomlin's second Super Bowl appearance in three years.  Tomlin's career record is 43-21; in the playoffs he's 5-1.  That's what this guy brings.

Tomlin is as organized and in tune with his team as any head coach in football.  He has the youth and energy to relate to his players and the old school, no-nonsense mentality to keep them focused on the task at hand.  He's a player's coach in the sense that he understands where his guys are coming from, but he's not the easy going Wade Phillips-type.  He's an excellent game manager and makes good adjustments–just witness the Steelers' comeback against the Ravens in the second half of that game.  Additionally, Tomlin has already won a Super Bowl before; he should be very comfortable with the preparation, the stage, and the spectacle that is the Super Bowl.

Making the plays to win

Also consistent throughout the year, at least after Week 4, was the winning combination of Tomlin and Roethlisberger.  Big Ben, as cliche as it sounds, simply knows how to win.  He could be playing the worst game of his career, but if you give him the ball late in the game and down 5 points, he is going to get a touchdown.  There is no quarterback I'd rather have in a late game, must score scenario.  Roethlisberger is the best in football at shaking tacklers, extending the play with his feet, and keeping his eyes downfield.

Another development was the breakout play of Mike Wallace, now the most dangerous deep threat in football.  He has averaged 40 yards per touchdown reception this year and may just be the fastest man in the league.  Rashard Mendenhall continued his rise to stardom with nearly 1,300 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.  Hines Ward was ol' reliable as usual.

And yet, even though the Steelers have done nothing but persevere, win, and survive the tough AFC all year long, they are underdogs in a game they've been to before and know how to win.  Don't sleep on these Steelers.  Pittsburgh makes their third Super Bowl in six years in pretty much the same way they always have: Defense, Roethlisberger, and great coaching.  The added dimension of Wallace makes this team especially dangerous.  They have Super Bowl experience up and down the roster, and now face a Packer team with only two players that have reached this stage before.  Sure Green Bay is white-hot right now, but Pittsburgh will be the toughest team the Packers have played all year, and you can bet they're ready to take home their record seventh Super Bowl title.

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com)

Internet Watch #10

Here we have the AP's 2010 All-Pro team.  Tom Brady was unanimous, Ndamukong Suh was the only rookie, and our resident 49er fan's lone bright spot, Patrick Willis made his third All-Pro team in four years.

We've entered the worst week of the entire year, the weekend with no football in between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl.  To give us something to salivate over, here's a new mock draft complete with trades.

The Steelers face an uphill battle as their best offensive lineman, Maurkice Pouncey, learns that he has both broken bones in his ankle and a high ankle sprain.  His status for the Super Bowl is "highly doubtful."

More on the Super Bowl front, Sports Illustrated writer Don Banks shares his notes from Packer camp.

Tracy Morgan, who is no longer on Saturday Night Live, visits the Inside the NBA pregame show.

NFL Conference Championships Game Notes

Steelers over Jets

Adam: -In a game in which the star quarterback had a bad stat line, those numbers don't tell the story one bit.  Ben Roethlisberger went 10/19 for 133 yards, 2 interceptions, no passing touchdowns, and one rushing score.  Yet he extended plays all day long, moved the team in key situations, and made enough plays to win.

-Rashard Mendenhall was huge in this game, toting the rock 27 times for 121 yards against a very stout run defense.

-Give the Jets a ton of credit for their perseverance, coming back from a 21-point halftime deficit and shutting out the Steelers in the second half.

-The Jets' coverage was again impeccable, but New York has to find a way to add a complementary pass rush.

-Mark Sanchez lost one fumble, but again did not throw an interception and did toss two scores.  It's important to remember that Sanchez is just a second year player.  Wait until after his third year before you really start to judge him.

-The Jets are a very talented football team, but Pittsburgh was more prepared for the big stage and shot off to an ultimately insurmountable lead.

-The Jets this year seemed to be more of an amalgamation of really good players than a cohesive team.  Great individual talent, but as a team, I'm not sure who their leader is or what is their identity.

-The injury to Maurkice Pouncey is a huge one.  He may be the Steelers' best offensive lineman, and this unit is already banged up.  Against Dom Capers, Clay Matthews, and company, you do not want an injury plagued offensive line.

-Both Pittsburgh and Green Bay will benefit from the extra week in between now and the Super Bowl.

Eric: -Rashard Mendenhall put the Steelers on his back and was much more effective than his similarly long named backfield mate, Ben Roethlisberger.  Mendenhall ran for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 carries, whereas Roethlisberger went 10/19 for just 133 yards and 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns.

-Offense was not the story though in this one; look to the defense.  Ike Taylor's strip sack of Mark Sanchez and the touchdown return by William Gay essentially ended the game with 1:13 left in the first half.  After spotting the Steelers a 24-point lead, Sanchez and the Jets' fervent second half comeback attempt came up short with Gay's touchdown as the decisive score.

-To maintain their edge, Pittsburgh held up for a fourth quarter goal line stand, but poor management from New York was what really contributed to their not scoring.  Even heading into the red zone there were communication problems between Sanchez and the Jets sideline.  Then after a Shonn Greene run got them inside the five yard line, their power back only touched the ball one more time.  Miscommunication on getting the second down play action pass call in meant Sanchez had to rush the snap and couldn't sell his fake, leading to an incompletion.  Then on third down came another inexplicable pass that Lamar Woodley batted down at the line of scrimmage.  And on fourth down the Jets tried to pound away with LaDanian Tomlinson but to no avail.  A note to Brian Schottenheimer: Give it to Greene, your horse, the guy that got you down knocking on the goal line, and give him four opportunities to punch it in.  Don't put it in the air in a very congested ten yards and don't give it to the ancient Tomlinson.

Packers over Bears

A: -Aaron Rodgers wasn't the machine he's been lately, but he was effective enough to win the game.  One of his two interceptions was a freak play that bounced of his receiver's foot, and on the other pick he made the touchdown saving tackle.

-The game really shifted when Jay Cutler went down, interestingly though, it improved things for the Bears.  Todd Collins was awful in two series, but then Caleb Hanie came in the game and moved the offense well.  He tossed a touchdown to Earl Bennett but also threw the game clinching pick to BJ Raji.  In addition, Sam Shields intercepted Hanie on his last gasp throw late in the fourth quarter.

-James Starks was just enough on the ground–22 carries for 74 yards–to eat some clock and keep the defense off balance.  As a team, the Packers rushed 32 times for 120 yards.  If they can carry that on to the Super Bowl, they will have an excellent chance to win the game.

-People are all over Cutler for not finishing the game, including NFL players tweeting about his lack of toughness.  I'm not going to kill the guy though.  He hurt his knee, and if he was going to be ineffective because of it, then the Bears needed to replace him.  I don't think he quit on the team; I think he couldn't play at a competitive level so he sat out.

-Both defenses were really good on this day.  The offenses combined to go 3/24 on third down.

-Devin Hester was a no factor.  Credit the much maligned Tim Mastay who punted beautifully all day.

-The Packers outgained the Bears on the ground, through the air, and won the turnover battle.  That may have been expected, but if the upset was going to happen, the Bears needed big days from Hester, Julius Peppers, and Matt Forte.  They got none of the above.  Hester returned three punts for just 16 yards.  Peppers only had two tackles, no sacks, and one hit on Rodgers.  Forte had 160 total yards but failed to find the end zone.

-The Packers have played on the road, in bad conditions, or both since Week 16 of the regular season, and all five of those games came against top competition.  The Super Bowl will be a beautiful reprieve for the Pack, playing in pristine conditions with a neutral crowd.  Two of the greatest franchises and best fan bases now meet up in Dallas: Packers vs. Steelers.  Damn it feels good to say the Packers are in the Super Bowl!

E: -People are getting real testy about Jay Cutler and the extent of his injury.  If the man can't go, he can't go.  Sometimes the pain in one's head and thinking about the injury would make a player just as incompetent as a more serious injury would.  And hell, had Cutler finished the game we never would've seen the Caleb Hanie show.

-When a third string quarterback comes in and starts tearing up your defense, there might be some problems.  Fortunately for the Packers, Sam Shields picked the right time to be a hero, intercepting a Hanie pass on a potential game-tying drive to seal the victory for Green Bay.

-Speaking of Hanie interceptions, let's give it up for the big man, BJ Raji.  The nose tackle's fourth quarter pick six was the Packers' margin of victory.

-Eric's Game MVP honors go to Packer punter Tim Masthay.  He probably had the toughest assignment on the field Sunday: contain Devin Hester.  He consistently gave Hester unreturnable punts, either high ones that gave his coverage teams ample time to get downfield or long, angled line drives that bounced away from Hester and deeper into Bears' territory.

-The team I picked to win the Super Bowl back in July is still active.  And just to rub it in, the team Adam picked went 6-10.

NBA Power Poll #13

1. San Antonio Spurs (38-7): Ranking them atop this list is getting as monotonous as, well, the Spurs themselves.  They just keep producing.  How good at the art of winning is Tim Duncan?  He's never played with another superstar, ever.  David Robinson was on his way down when Duncan arrived and won his first title.  Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker are very nice players, but could Karl Malone, Charles Barkely, Kevin Garnett, or Dwight Howard carry those guys to three championships?  I don't think so.  Duncan continues to be under appreciated.  Though his production is down this year, he is still the focal point of the best team in basketball on both ends of the floor and in the locker room.

2. Los Angeles Lakers (32-13): Wins over the Thunder and Nuggets book ending a loss to the Mavericks make this a solid week for Showtime.  They finally played some tough competition and fared pretty well.  There was a stretch in their latest game against Denver where they looked like the best team in basketball.  Their bigs shared the ball and Kobe Bryant facilitated and scored without doing too much of one and not the other.  Sometimes Bryant picks his role, predetermines it.  "OK, tonight I'm scoring the ball," or, "OK, for this quarter I'm gonna be the assist man."  Here he let the game come to him, and that's when he is truly great.  Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Pau Gasol combined for 54 points and 30 rebounds against Denver.  If those guys play like that come June, everyone else can just go home because it's three-peat time.

3. Boston Celtics (33-10): Even though a loss to the Wizards is a little embarrassing, they do have a winning record at home.  Still, Boston beat the Magic, Pistons, and Jazz prior to this loss.  A 3-1 week with two quality wins ain't all bad.

4. New Orleans Hornets (30-16): Well, well, well.  A team that was left for dead by many, including me, is rallying.  Nine straight wins has this team right back among the league's elite.  During this streak the Hornets have beaten the Magic, Nuggets, Hawks, Spurs, and Thunder.

5. Chicago Bulls (31-14): 10-0 in their division, the Bulls are in the midst of building a terrific season.  They've won six of seven, Derrick Rose is in the MVP race, and Joakim Noah should be coming back relatively soon.

6. Miami Heat (31-13): This team is having a little mid-season lull, but I think they'll be fine.  They need to get all their guns back and healthy, and I would bet they are just getting tuned up for a big stretch run.  The big three have plenty of personal accolades, and now I think they're just ready to put it together during the playoffs.  How fun will the Eastern Conference be this year?  If the postseason started today: #1 Celtics vs. #8 Bobcats (OK, blah),  #2 Heat vs. #7 76ers (Sweep), #3 Bulls vs. #6 Knicks (Two of the biggest markets in America, resurgent teams, young superstars, old rivalry renewed, yes please!), #4 Hawks vs. #5 Magic (How will this new cast work in the playoffs for Orlando?  Can the Hawks actually do something?).  Then just imagine East Semis of Bulls vs. Heat and Magic vs. Celtics.  Those are four really good teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the four in the finals.  We are going to see some changing of the guard this year in the playoffs; the Bulls are ready to move, the Heat aren't quite there as a team yet, the Celtics and Lakers are old, the Thunder are up and coming.  Something that's not "supposed" to happen this postseason will.

7. Atlanta Hawks (29-16): A franchise that was completely down and out ten years ago puts together another stellar regular season.  This talented group really should be developing playoff chemistry since they've been together for so long, but they still just seem like a me-first group.

8. Orlando Magic (29-16): I don't think they're worse than the Hawks, but they are playing worse as of late.  Their latest loss, at home to the Pistons, was a head scratcher.

9. Oklahoma City Thunder (28-16): Playing average ball of late, are they going to take a true step forward this year or are they in a holding pattern?

10. Nobody: The Nuggets are locked in Melo-drama.  Utah has four straight losses.  The Knicks are backsliding.  The Grizzlies are the Grizzlies.  Keep it up Clippers, we're holding auditions for the tenth spot.

--from Adam

Conference Championships Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Jets at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Packers at Bears	Packers	Packers
	Adam	Eric
Divisional Round Record	2-2	1-3
Divisional Round Points	4	0
Total Points	162	157
Playoff Record	5-3	3-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	153-111	154-110

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

ESPN Line: Steelers by 4

Opening Salvo: Each team is coming off an incredibly emotional win over its most bitter rival.  The Steelers did less talking than the Jets during the week while the Jets felt like the kid brother to New England.  Why does that matter?  Because the Jets poured every ounce of emotion into that game last weekend.  You could just see it.  Bart Scott's insane post game interview, Antonio Cromartie trash talking Tom Brady after the game, Braylon Edwards back flipping, the whole team was jubilant and also relieved.  On the other side, the Steelers expected to beat the Ravens.  Though they had to make a mad comeback, they did what they thought they would.  The Steelers expect to both be in Super Bowls and also win them.  One intangible for the Jets is that they made the AFC Title Game last year.  They know what this game is about, and they certainly don't want to go home losers again.  They also won't fear Ben Roethlisberger after taking out Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks.

When the Steelers Have the Ball: The Jets have built there reputation under Rex Ryan as a blitz-happy, sack the quarterback defense, but their pass rush has been absent much of this year.  Where they truly excel is in pass coverage.  Cromartie is great in man-to-man press coverage, and I believe we will see him matched up on speedster Mike Wallace most of the day.  If there's a guy that can run with Wallace, it's Cromartie.  This will be the type of matchup Cromartie likes.  Wallace doesn't run short crossing routes; he goes deep downfield early and often where Cromartie is most comfortable.  On the other side, get ready for a fist fight between Darrell Revis and Hines Ward.  Revis is the perfect matchup against Ward because he has great balance, terrific ball skills, and is very strong.  Ward won't be able to separate from this guy, and you may see Big Ben really searching for open receivers.  One guy that is hard to account for is Heath Miller.  He is a big body that really knows how to get open, and Roethlisberger loves finding him, especially in the red zone.  The Jets sacked Brady five times last week, but much of that was due to tremendous coverage rather than great pressure.  Playing behind a shoddy offensive line, this week they get Roethlisberger, the hardest quarterback to tackle in the league.  The Jets are stout against the run, allowing only 90 rushing yards per game, but Pittsburgh has to pound the ball as much as possible.   Rashard Mendenhall is a talented back that can break a big run, but I don't know if the Steelers' offensive line can create enough push.   If Roethlisberger throws too often though, he will turn it over; the Jets secondary is just too good.  Advantage: Slightly Jets

When the Jets Have the Ball: Pittsburgh will be eager to improve on the 24 points they allowed last week, and I believe they will.  Mark Sanchez had a great game last week, but we haven't seen him be consistently good yet in his young career.  Still, give credit because he has made two AFC Title Games in two years.  Pittsburgh's most important defensive player, Troy Polamalu, didn't look quite right last week, still nursing a strained achilles tendon.  The Jets have maybe the best offensive line in the league, and Pittsburgh has an incredible pass rush led by James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, with the occasional Polamalu blitz thrown in.  That should be a great matchup.  Pittsburgh is also insanely good against the run, allowing just 63 yards per game during the regular season.  My guess is that the Jets' terrific offensive line will win some battles, and the Steelers tremendous defense will win some too.  Dick LeBeau is a genius defensive coordinator for the Steelers, and I think with young Sanchez at the helm, the Steelers will hone in on the run and force the Jets to pass.  Edwards and former Steeler Santonio Holmes are really nice targets in the passing game.  The question is, will Sanchez find them?  Advantage: Steelers

Special Teams: Brad Smith won't be playing in this game and that makes a difference, though Cromartie has been really dangerous as a substitute return man.  Nick Folk has a strong leg but missed nine field goals in the regular season plus his only try against the Patriots last week.  His inaccuracy is a concern.  Steve Weatherford has been masterful this year at pinning teams deep in their own territory for the Jets, which could be a huge advantage in a game decided by two great defenses.  For the Steelers, Shaun Suisham has been really good, but the playoffs are different beast, and who knows what the kicking game will produce?  Daniel Sepulveda has an impressive 39 yard net punting average.  Advantage: Slightly Jets

Bottom Line: To me, this is a much closer matchup than the NFC Title Game; you can't really go down the list and say definitively who has the advantage in each area.  Roethlisberger represents the biggest advantage over his counterpoint, Sanchez, in this entire game.  I don't put much stock in home field advantage at this point.  The Jets won't be rattled, they are tremendous on the road, and they are a seasoned playoff bunch.  I am really agonizing over this pick, but I think the Steelers played their "B"-minus game last week while the Jets played their "A" game.  I expect that to even out, both defenses to play great, and Big Ben to be the difference in the end.

Prediction: Steelers 19 – Jets 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

ESPN Line: Packers by 4

Opening Salvo: These teams have met twice already this year, and much like last week's AFC matchups, there won't be any secrets in this game.  In the first matchup, the Packers set a team record for most penalties committed and still only lost by 3.  The Bears have struck me all year long as a fortunate team that was slightly more lucky than good.  They faced something like four backup quarterbacks this year.  They also rank 28th in passing yards per game, 22nd in rushing yards per game, and 20th in passing yards allowed per game.  They are very good against the run, but it's not as if the Packers are a running team in the slightest.  Speaking of the Packers, this is one hot team right now that has marched through the best the NFC has to offer in the last four weeks (Giants, Bears, Eagles, Falcons).  Aaron Rodgers is not only playing at an MVP level, he's playing at a robotic perfection-type level.  Every decision, throw, scramble, or audible seems to work perfectly.  In his last four games, which were all essentially playoff games, Rodgers has 11 touchdowns and just 1 interception.

When the Bears Have the Ball: Jay Cutler has been good lately, but you know that turnover-happy pouty face is hiding just under the surface.  He didn't throw any picks in his last game, which means he's essentially a shoo-in to throw it to the wrong team a couple of times this week.  In fact, he should have been picked off early against Seattle, but the defensive back just didn't make the play.  The Bears have really no receivers that strike fear into a defender's heart, especially when you consider the stellar play of Green Bay's defensive backfield.  Tramon Williams is the MVP of the postseason so far, and he's the best corner left in the playoffs not named Revis.  Sam Shields has been really solid lately, and you absolutely aren't going to run past him.  He is the fastest player on the team.  And oh yeah, Pro bowl safety Nick Collins and last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson, are pretty good too.  Woodson has played a rover role the last few weeks with Shields and Williams handling most of the man coverage.  That leaves the ever-dangerous Woodson to ball hawk and blitz, two of his main strengths.  Johnny Knox will be taken away by Williams, but Greg Olsen has to concern Green Bay, who have been burned by tight ends this year.  Still, the Pack allowed future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez just one catch last week.  Additionally, when Cutler drops back to throw, he will be protected by a shoddy offensive line that has improved but is still a weakness.  That's not good news with BJ Raji and Cullen Jenkins penetrating up front, Clay Matthews firing off the edge, and the aforementioned Woodson coming from all angles.  The Bears' offensive line will also be an issue when they try to run the ball, and if Mike Martz is smart, he will call as many runs as possible to avoid turnovers and keep Rodgers off the field.   Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are very good backs, but again, they won't be running through massive holes.  While the Packers can be susceptible to the run, I believe that curtailing the ground game will be priority one for Dom Capers' crew, knowing that if they can force the Bears to throw, they have a tremendous advantage.  Overall the Packers have the scheme and an abundance of playmakers to really disrupt what the Bears want to do.  Capers is going to make a nest inside Cutler's head and stay there all day.  Advantage: Decidedly Packers

When the Packers Have the Ball: At this point there is absolutely nobody you'd rather have under center than Rodgers.  Not only can you trust him to not make the big mistake, but you can count on him to continuously make big plays, escape the rush, and make laser-like throws across the field.  Yes it will be outdoors in swirly Soldier Field, so don't expect another 31/36 and 3 touchdown performance, but do expect another unbelievable day for the People's Champ.  Since Soldier Field is a notoriously clunky and slow playing surface, conditions will not be ideal for the passing game, but Green Bay is no stranger to this field or adverse conditions.  I look at the Packer gameplan in the Wild Card Round against Philadelphia as a blueprint for this coming weekend.  It was cold and nasty and the Pack leaned heavily on a ground game nobody knew they had.  I do not expect James Starks to ring up 123 yards again, but I think he, John Kuhn, and Brandon Jackson should get 25-30 attempts cumulatively and hopefully rack up 90-100 yards, just enough to keep the Bears honest and open up some passing lanes.  The one thing the Bears are great at is run stuffing, so that will be a tall order, but the Packers have to stick with it.  The Packers have the better offensive line between the two teams, but it still isn't great.  Josh Sitton and Chad Clifton have been very good, and Brian Bulaga shows promising flashes and is pretty solid.  Julius Peppers is a gameplan wrecker so I think Mike McCarthy will make him corralling him a focal point.  They need to run directly at Peppers early and often to wear him down, and when they pass, they need to keep a back or tight end in to help block him.  Nobody else on the Bears' defensive line really worries me too much, especially with Rodgers' quick release and escapability.  Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are incredibly smart and tough football players.  They will likely be focused on reading Rodgers, stuffing the run, and playing shallow zone coverage.  The Bears' secondary is decent but nothing more.  They occasionally take big risks, and that could spell trouble against the vertically aggressive Packers.  If Rodgers can get time, he will burn the Bears down field all day.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson are far superior to the men who will be covering them, so offensive line play and Rodgers' decision making will be the key.  Another thing to consider is the masterful play calling of McCarthy on the sideline, who has been dialing up magic all year long.  He and Rodgers are on the same page and it shows.  Advantage: Slightly Packers

Special Teams: Robbie Gould is as reliable a kicker as you are going to find, and this game could come down to field goals.  Mason Crosby has the leg to make any kick, but he is erratic with his accuracy.  Tim Mastay has not been great punting the ball for Green Bay, and this is a game where field position will be at a premium.  Brad Maynard is a solid punter for the Bears and can usually place the ball where he wants to putting 24 punts inside the 20 yard line this year.  Devin Hester is the best return man in the game, and the Packers' coverage units have allowed a lot of big plays this year.  The strategy will be to kick punts away from Hester, hang them high in the air, or just plain kick it out of bounds.  Even if they don't get a great punt off, the Packers have to trust their defense to make a stop rather than rolling the dice with Hester.  Advantage: Decidedly Bears

Bottom Line: Better quarterback-Pack, better defense-Pack, better offensive line-Pack,   better receivers-Pack, better running back-Bears, better special teams-Bears, better coaching staff-Pack.  The Packers have a lot of advantages in this game, especially in the most important areas.  In a game where scheme will be less important because the teams know each other inside and out, it will be up to the players to decide this thing on the field.  Rodgers is brimming with confidence after defeating two teams that were superior to the Bears in my opinion, the Eagles and Falcons.  Additionally, I just don't believe you can trust Cutler to not throw the game away.  Even if he doesn't, I don't think the Bears can put up enough points to win against a defense playing at an all time high level.  This is a bad matchup for the Bears, and the only way they will keep this division rivalry close is through special teams.  The Packers must simply avoid the land mines of Hester and Julius.  If they can minimize the impact of those two individuals, this should be a comfortable win for Green Bay.

Prediction: Packers 26 – Bears 16

Divisional Round Game Notes

Jets over Patriots

Adam: -The Patriots were the best team in the regular season, but that was because Tom Brady played at a surreal level all year.  On Sunday he played just pretty good, and it wasn't enough.  He had ages to throw in that pocket, but nobody was open.  Credit amazing Jets coverage.

-If I had told you the Patriots would win the time of possession battle by a substantial margin and would lose by a touchdown, would you have believed me?  That's exactly what happened, in part because Mark Sanchez was incredibly efficient.  He tossed three scores with no picks and had a passer rating of 127.

-I thought when David Harris returned his interception to the Patriots' 20 yard line and the Jets got nothing that it would be the Pats' day, but the resilient Jets fought the whole game and were the better team on this day.

-We are set for an incredibly physical showdown between New York and Pittsburgh next week.

Eric: -Sanchez missed some throws early, but came on strong to polish off a resounding win over the hated Patriots.  He finished 16/25 passing for 194 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

-The real star of the show though was the New York defense.  They made Brady uncomfortable all day.  They didn't bring the blitz every down, but they created enough pressure to notch five sacks on the Justin Bieber lookalike.

-The single play that really turned the game was the Patriots' failed fake punt right before halftime.  New England had the ball at roughly their own 40 yard line with about a minute left in the half.  Lining up for a punt, the Jets probably would have gotten the ball deep in their own territory and been content to go into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  Instead, Patrick Chung drops the direct snap to the upback and can't regain his momentum to convert the fourth down try.  The Jets get the ball in Patriots territory and finish off the half with a Sanchez-to-Braylon Edwards touchdown connection.  That was all the validation the Jets needed the rest of the way to put the Patriots on ice.

-The Jets talked the talk all week, and walked the walk on Sunday, earning a berth in the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row.  The only question is, how will New York follow up their extremely emotional win heading to Pittsburgh?

-This marks New England's third straight postseason loss.  Now, winning a playoff game is never easy, but we expected more from a crew that obliterated all doubts in the regular season.  Moving forward, there's not much the Patriots should have to improve on.  Just get that young defense more experience and keep Brady healthy on offense, and this team should be right back in the postseason mix a year from now.

Steelers over Ravens

A: -A tale of two halves if I've ever seen one.  The Ravens had this game in the bag with a 21-7 halftime lead, but Ray Rice and Joe Flacco turned the ball over second half, the opening Pittsburgh needed.

-Ray Lewis' comments after the game revealed a decade of pent up frustration with an offense that is just never quite good enough.  Rice only ran the ball 12 times, not nearly enough, and the Baltimore receivers repeatedly dropped catchable balls.

-The clock is ticking on Lewis and Ed Reed, and they may never get a chance as good as the one they squandered on Saturday.

-The Steelers just hung around, and when the Ravens opened the door, they walked right in.  Ben Roethlisberger got sacked a bunch, but he didn't throw a pick and he passed for two scores.

-This wasn't quite the 9-6 game we thought it would be, but it was still a blood bath.  I think the better team won the day.  Roethlisberger was better than Flacco as he usually is.

E: -Where did Baltimore go the second half?  After a dominating first half that included converting two Pittsburgh turnovers into easy scores, the Ravens disappeared, allowing another Roethlisberger comeback victory.

-Flacco played as well as could be expected, but key drops by his wide receivers–Anquan Boldin dropped a sure fourth quarter touchdown and TJ Houshmandzadeh dropped a fourth down pass that would have moved the chains on the Ravens' final drive–and the normally sure-handed Rice's fumble on the 2 yard line put the kibosh on Baltimore's chances.

-Pittsburgh moves on to their third AFC title game in the last six years, where victories were followed by Super Bowl championships in each of the past two occurrences.

-I see things getting a little worse for the Ravens in the near future.  The core nucleus of their team is very old and an influx of youth is needed to rejuvenate the roster, which is a tough thing to do all of a sudden.  Lewis, Reed, Derrick Mason, Boldin, Houshmandzadeh; I'm not saying these guys don't have anything left, but the Ravens need to start preparing for the day when they don't see #52 and #20 in the locker room.

Packers over Falcons

A: -Hello Mr Rodgers!  If there was a better quarterback performance all year, I didn't see it.  In fact, I'm not sure it would have been possible to play any better.  Keep in mind that Greg Jennings fumbled away a big completion as well.

-James Starks wasn't great, and certainly didn't validate the outrageous "The Packers have a running game" claims, but he did just enough to keep the defense off Rodgers and allow for effective play action.

-If James Jones plays to his potential, he can be a Pro Bowler.

-Clay Matthews was a natural disaster out there.

-Tramon Williams is the MVP of the postseason thus far.  First, he saved the day against Philly, then he slowed down Atlanta on a big drive, and essentially ended the game with his pick six just before half.

-BJ Raji was a monster, creating penetration on almost every play, and Cullen Jenkins was a force as well.

-Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game.

-Roddy White, who may have been the best receiver in the league this year, was held to only 57 yards on 6 catches.  Again that points to the stellar play of Williams.  Tony Gonzalez also had just one grab for 7 yards.

-The Falcons got eliminated in its first playoff game for the second time in three years.  The Falcons are a very good team, but if they turned the ball over and got behind, you knew they would struggle.  

-The Packers held the ball for 38 minutes against a Falcons team that specializes in holding the rock, what a performance.

-This defense is nasty, and if they can just survive the Bears next week, the Pack will get to be in a nice dome environment for the Super Bowl.  Aaron Rodgers is the best player left in the playoffs.

-The Packers have beaten the Giants, Bears, Eagles, and Falcons all in a row, proving they are the team to beat in the NFC.

E: -Anything Rodgers wanted to do in this game, he did it.  The Falcons had no answers for his laser-like throws, his escapability, or for Mike McCarthy's ingenious play calling.  Dig these numbers: an 86.1% completion percentage that went 31/36 passing for 366 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and he ran for a score as well.  By the way, that completion percentage?  The fifth-best playoff performance ever.

-The Packers' defense meanwhile made it look like we made the wrong Pro Bowl selection; Matt Ryan's two first half interceptions basically sealed it for Green Bay.  With one pick in the end zone and another that Williams turned into a house call to end the first half, about as good as Rodgers was, Ryan was equally bad.

-No one's hotter right now than Rodgers and the Pack.  Look out, Windy City.

-This game got out of hand for the Falcons very quickly.  The unstoppable Packers, racking up touchdown after touchdown, knocked Atlanta out of its "pound the ball and manage the tempo" gameplan.  (Even the Eric Weems kickoff return touchdown took them out of their element.  Yes it meant points, but they gave the ball right back to Green Bay rather than draining clock, which was probably the best defense against Rodgers anyway.)  That's as good a formula to win as any, so with the right offseason moves and if they can stay healthy, this team should challenge for the NFC South crown again next year.

Bears over Seahawks

A: -The Bears were never really tested in this one, though Seattle threw a couple garbage touchdowns up late.  The 28-0 start said everything about this game.  Seattle was nowhere near good enough to be a solid team on the road.

-Jay Cutler had two touchdowns to no interceptions, and the Bears ran 45 times for 176 yards.  If they can do that, they can beat anyone with a good defense that's shutting people down.  Still, the Bears are 28th in passing yards per game, 22nd in rushing yards per game,and  20th in pass yards allowed.  Yes they are very good against the run, but that's the only thing they're great at.  Well that and Devin Hester.

-The Seahawks exposed a major chink in the Bears' armor  by throwing the ball vertically down the field, but it was too little, too late.  Rodgers to Jennings and Donald Driver won't be as easy to contain as Matt Hasselbeck and company.

-Now we get set for the oldest rivalry in football to determine who gets a spot in the biggest game in football.  Absolutely can not wait!

E: -The Seahawks could not replicate the outcome of their shocking victory over the Saints last week, and frankly, laid an egg versus the Bears.  The score was 28-0 at one point, and though Hasselbeck threw up some garbage points, the final 35-24 score was not indicative of the game at all.

-The Bears run stuffers handled their duties with aplomb, forcing the Seahawks into one-dimensionality.  As a pass-only offense, Seattle's dearth of playmakers on the outside manifested with drop after drop and general ineptitude.

-Even when he doesn't touch the ball, Hester is the Bears' greatest weapon.  Just the fear of kicking to him causes opposing to punters to angle their punts or go high and short, which inevitably puts the Bears' offense at about the same position if Hester was kicked to normally and allowed a big return.  Teams must trust their coverage units, or else they will be defending short fields all day long.

-The Bears and Packers will play for the Halas Trophy this week for the right to play for the Lombardi Trophy in three weeks.  Is there a better possible NFC Championship Game matchup?  To answer my own rhetorical, no.

-The Seahawks are putting the pieces together and ended much better off than where they started the season, but no one really knows what this offseason–or even what the upcoming regular season–will mean for the NFC West.