NFL Week 16 Game Notes

Steelers over Panthers

Adam: -The Steelers weren’t the only ones trying to clinch something of significance in this game.  The Panthers guaranteed the number one pick in next year’s draft with this loss.  Do they believe in Jimmy Clausen, who I thought was going to be very good but hasn’t shown much yet, or are they in love with Andrew Luck?  I think it’s too early to say much about Clausen as a player, but if they feel Luck can be a superstar, they have to take him.

Eric: -What an unspectacular matchup.  I have no interest in the Panthers anymore, at least not until draft day.

Cardinals over Cowboys

A: -I didn’t know this game was even being played until it was over.

E: -Jon Kitna's two pick sixes dug the Cowboys into too deep a hole they couldn't clamber out of.

Lions over Dolphins

A: -We’ve said all year the Lions are better than their record, and now they’ve won three straight games with two of those coming on the road.

-The Dolphins finish the year 1-7 at home.

E: -Detroit has won three games in a row, a feat they have not accomplished since 2007.

-Something else the Lions hadn't done since 2007?  Win a road game.  Now they've won two straight.

Ravens over Browns

A: -A workmanlike win keeps Baltimore alive for the two seed in the AFC.

E: -There wasn't much to this one other than the better team won.  Baltimore keeps pace with the Steelers; the two teams are tied at 11-4 going into the final week of the season.

Vikings over Eagles

A: -The Vikings had nothing to lose, and they played like it, especially defensively.  They blitzed all night, and in the process provided the best blue print thus far for stopping Michael Vick.  They sent corners and safeties all night on pressures, guys that can actually run with and contain Vick.  Vick does his damage when he rolls out or extends the play in the pocket, so you have to send athletes that can curtail his movement.  Additionally, Vick took a lot of hits, and you could tell that affected his rhythm and accuracy.

-The Eagles had a chance to stay in contention for a first round bye, and even had an outside shot at the one seed.  That's gone now, but they are locked in at the three seed and can rest their main guys next week to gear up for the postseason.  Still, this was a troubling late season loss to an inferior opponent.

-Joe Webb, how about that?

E: -After their insane win over the Giants a week ago, Vick and the Eagles came out flat and never got into the game.  Over the last two weeks, the Eagles have played one good quarter of football.  The other seven were, quite frankly, kind of shitty.  That does not bode well when teams need to play their best football in December going into the postseason.

Patriots over Bills

A: -With this win the Pats can take off next Sunday's game and the week after, their bye, to rest their bodies.  That’s nearly three weeks for this team to study and get refreshed.   They are certainly the favorites to reach the Super Bowl.  I would bet Bill Belichick won’t play anyone important at all next week considering Wes Welker shredded his knee last year in a game that meant nothing.

E: -The Bills forced a close finish the last time these two teams matched up, but could not duplicate or better that performance here.  Week 3: Pats 38 – Bills 30.  Week 16: Pats 34 – Bills 3.

Buccaneers over Seahawks

A: -Despite having one of the league’s worst point differentials, Seattle has a chance to play at home for a playoff berth.  Let’s hope they don’t get there.

-The Buccaneers probably will fall short of the playoffs, but they should be really proud of their season, improving from three wins a year ago to nine, possibly ten, this season.

E: -This outcome keeps the Bucs' slim playoff hopes alive and keeps the NFC West up for grabs.

Redskins over Jaguars

A: -The Jags really needed to win this game.  They aren’t out of playoff contention, but now they must win next week and hope the Colts lose.

-Look out world, the Rex Grossman train is back on the tracks.

E: -The Jaguars have lost two games in a row, which, had they won either, probably would have sealed up the AFC South crown.  They instead go into the final week of the season a game behind the Colts in the standings.

Bears over Jets

A: -Who thought this game would end up 38-34?  This as actually an indictment of both teams.  Each team's strength is supposed to be its defense, but neither unit showed up on Sunday.

E: -This was a completely uncharacteristic game as 73 total points were scored, put up against two top defenses and in less than pristine weather conditions.

Chiefs over Titans

A: -The Chiefs are 7-0 at home and clinch a home playoff game by winning the AFC West.  Nobody wants to go into Arrowhead in the playoffs.   Matt Cassel should at least be on the ballot for MVP.

E: -This win, coupled with San Diego's loss, sealed the AFC West crown for the Chiefs.  Watch out, whoever has to come to Arrowhead; Kansas' City's 7-0 at home.

Rams over 49ers

A: -From my perspective it was good that the Niners lost this game.  Yes I would have enjoyed watching them make the playoffs, even at 7-9, but that would have given them a draft pick in the 20s instead of the top ten.  This team needs a quarterback, and with this loss, has a chance to grab a good one.

-San Francisco now moves forward from the Mike Singletary era, which was characterized by mistakes, underachievement, disorganized play, and general chaos.

-The Rams are the NFC West’s lone hope.  If they win next week, they will be 8-8 and this division won’t have to put a sub-.500 team into the tournament.

E: -So the Singletary regime is over.  With a whimper.

Broncos over Texans

A: -The Texans blow another late lead; they started the season 4-2 and are now 5-10, yikes.

-Tim Tebow leads his first career fourth quarter comeback and made some really nice throws in the process.

E: -How many times have the Texans given up a lead to lose the game?  Well, it happened again here.  Houston was ahead 17-0 only to lose 24-23.

Colts over Raiders

A: -The Colts now must only beat the lowly Titans in Indy and they will clinch a home playoff game.

-The Raiders hung tough all game and showed they are a different team than in years past.

E: -Even in the Black Hole, the Raiders could not derail the Colts' playoff hopes.  With one more win or a Jacksonville loss, Indianapolis wins the AFC South.

Packers over Giants

A: -Aaron Rodgers was absolutely magnificent and he made it through this game without a major hit, which means another week for his head to heal.

-Green Bay now must beat the Bears at home, and if they do so, they may very well play at Chicago to open the playoffs.

-The Giants look like a broken team, and now have to win and get help to make the playoffs. 

E: -With Ol' Pouty–Eli Manning–throwing four picks, there was no way the Giants were going to beat a Packer team already in playoff mode, needing to win out to guarantee a wild card.

Bengals over Chargers

A: -All San Diego had to do was beat the Bengals to stay alive in the playoff race, and they couldn’t.  This team does not belong in the playoffs.

E: -Give me a break, San Diego.  With this loss, the Chargers eliminated themselves from playoff contention.

Saints over Falcons

A: -This game meant more to New Orleans, but it was still an absolute slug fest.  Both teams proved that they are Super Bowl contenders once again in this game. 

-Atlanta will clinch the number one seed in the NFC if they can just beat the lowly Panthers next week in the Georgia Dome.

E: -The Falcons are a team predicated on a balanced offense, but in this mathcup, the Saints completely shut down Atlanta's running game.  The Falcons had to throw more than they were accustomed to and looked out of sorts doing it.  They could not capitalize on New Orleans' mistakes.

NBA Power Poll #9

1. San Antonio Spurs (26-4): I’m not going to penalize this team for losing a single game; you can’t win em’ all.  Even though, the Spurs have nearly done just that so far.   I’m especially not going to penalize them for losing to a reloaded Magic team that really needed a statement win.

2. Dallas Mavericks (24-5): Finally Dallas is doing it with defense.  They rank sixth league-wide in points allowed.  In addition, they have as much depth and talent offensively as they’ve ever had.  My only concern right now with this team (and with the Spurs) is that this is a veteran bunch that may be peaking early.

3. Boston Celtics (23-5): They got routed by Orlando on Christmas but had won fourteen in a row heading into that game.  Rajon Rondo has been in an out of the lineup, yet this team just keeps winning.

4. Miami Heat (23-9): The win over the Lakers really doesn’t mean a thing in terms of how this season will shake out, but it’s a definite confidence builder that sends a message to the rest of the league.

5. Orlando Magic (19-12): There are plenty of teams with better records that could go here, but I’m judging this team on their recent results since their roster is brand new.  Wins over the Spurs and Celtics will sky rocket any team up the rankings.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (21-9): Laker fans are just going to have to get used to inconsistency.  This team has sprinkled in a lot of lethargic games over the past three regular seasons, and they’ve never been able to remedy that issue.  It makes them frustrating to watch, but at this point you just have to trust that this group knows what it’s doing.

7. Chicago Bulls (19-10): The Bulls have gone 8-2 over their last ten games with wins over the Thunder and Lakers in that stretch.  Carlos Boozer is averaging 26 points and 10 rebounds over his last five games, and if he keeps up that production, they won’t miss Joakim Noah quite as much.

8. Utah Jazz (21-10): This team strikes me as the type that will routinely win two out of three and three out of four in stretches, but won’t go on long winning streaks.  They are solid, smart, and well coached but don’t have the talent to get on extended rolls.

9. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-11): Kevin Durant leads the league in scoring by more than two points per game.  That’s a hard deficit for anyone to make up especially with over a third of the season gone.  Two NBA scoring titles at age 22?  Not bad at all.

10. New York Knicks (18-12): They stay in the rankings because they gave Boston all they could handle, played with the Heat for 3 ½ quarters, and then beat the Bulls on Christmas.  Winning one of those three games and playing well in all of them keeps them in my good graces for now.

--from Adam

Wanna See a Magic Trick?

Alright folks, no flowery introduction, let’s get down to brass tacks.  The Orlando Magic just pulled off a true set of blockbuster trades, but the question is, will they help and why.  Though the Wizards and Suns were part of these deals, the only contending team involved was Orlando, so I’ll focus solely on what these trades mean for them.

Orlando loses Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, and a first round pick.  While these are all quality players that had an entrenched role, none of them were guys that could carry the team for any substantial stretch.  In other words, none of these players was indispensable.  Carter has really slowed down, and he has to take a lot of shots to get points.  He is no longer an explosive athlete, and his defense is at an all-time worst.  Lewis is no more than a three point shooter, but without providing an inside presence at 6'10", he did not contribute enough, especially when he’s making $20 million a year.  Gortat’s absence will be felt because he provided quality size and depth behind Dwight Howard, and now Orlando is left without a true backup center.  Pietrus was a nice role player that may be missed, but his production can be replaced.  The theme here is that these were all solid players for the Magic, but they weren’t going to put Orlando over the top.

Orlando's Best #2 since
Howard became Superman

Orlando gains Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark, Hedo Turkoglu.  Arenas is the linchpin of the deal.  If he can return to his prolific scoring form of two years ago and keep his ego in check, then this deal is a slam dunk for Orlando.  Out of all the players that were moved, Arenas has the highest ceiling by far.  He can be the dominant perimeter scorer that Howard has always needed.  Orlando has relied so much on Howard and the three point shot in recent years; now they have an isolation breakdown player and excellent scorer.  Richardson is essentially a younger more athletic Carter with a better three point shot.  His style is a perfect fit for Orlando as he’s a tremendous outside threat to draw coverage away from Howard.  Clark may not see much playing time, but with the Magic’s relatively thin frontcourt, he will still log some minutes.  He’s a terrific athlete but is still very raw offensively.  Turkoglu is another wild card, but with so much talent around him now, he can return to the facilitating role he thrived in when he was with the Magic two years ago.

Ultimately Arenas and Richardson represent a more talented and athletic combination than Carter and Lewis did.  Turkoglu has a chance to revive his career in Orlando, and while Gortat will be missed, the Magic may make another trade as they search for a backup center.  Only time will tell how this trade really works out, but on the surface I think Orlando improved their talent and got much better offensively.  Their rotation now boasts Arenas, Jameer Nelson, JJ Reddick, Chris Duhon, Jason and Quentin Richardson, Clark, Turkoglu, Brandon Bass, and Dwight Howard.  That is a very deep and talented squad, and there is an abundance of backcourt depth, which may serve as trade bait to bolster Orlando’s frontcourt.
 
Even more than the Big Three in Miami, this unit will take time to gel as Orlando essentially imploded its roster in the middle of the season.  Orlando may lose some ground in the standings until they figure things out, but they could be dangerous come playoff time.  No longer satisfied by merely reaching the East finals, realizing they weren’t going to win a title with the Carter/Lewis duo, the Magic made a drastic change.  Orlando took a big risk, but it was one they had to take.
 
--from Adam

(image from espn.com)

Week 16 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Panthers at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Cowboys at Cardinals	Cowboys	Cowboys
Lions at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Ravens at Browns	Ravens	Ravens
Vikings at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Patriots at Bills	Patriots	Patriots
Seahawks at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Redskins at Jaguars	Jaguars	Redskins
Jets at Bears	Bears	Jets
Titans at Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
49ers at Rams	Rams	Rams
Broncos at Texans	Texans	Texans
Colts at Raiders	Raiders	Colts
Giants at Packers	Packers	Packers
Chargers at Bengals	Chargers	Chargers
Saints at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
	Adam	Eric
Week 15 Record	9-7	8-8
Season Standings	130-94	132-92

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers still have a lot to play for even though they have clinched a playoff berth.  They are fighting for a first round bye and to win the AFC North.  So it's nice to have Carolina in town.  The Steelers are 15 point favorites, which is a huge spread, but sounds just about right.

Prediction: Steelers 26 – Panthers 7

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Both teams have bad records, but in the NFL you can be a decent team who has had bad luck and injuries (Dallas) or you can be just plain bad (Arizona).

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Cardinals 10

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Break up Detroit, they've won one road game in a row!  They have a shot to make it two against the hapless at home Dolphins, but I just don't quite see that happening.

Prediction: Dolphins 22 – Lions 19

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens got a huge win against the Saints last week, and here they try to steal the AFC North and a first round bye from Pittsburgh.  I like the way Cleveland competes, but Baltimore is too talented and too motivated right now.

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Browns 16

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

I'm not sure if Brett Favre will play.  If he does, it will be closer than if Joe Webb plays, but the Vikes will  lose either way.  Michael Vick and the Eagles are just too explosive.

Prediction: Eagles 30 – Vikings 17

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The Pats can clinch home field throughout the post season with a win in this game.  I guarantee New England doesn't want to have to clinch home field in week 17 when road warriors Miami come to town.  The Patriots almost never overlook an opponent, and with big time incentive, they should punish the Bills.

Prediction: Patriots 29 – Bills 13

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle has a chance in this game because of Tampa's injury situation, but when you are waffling between Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, you're in trouble.  Josh Freeman is really good; he will be the difference.

Prediction: Buccaneers 20 – Seahawks 10

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are just a more solid and together team right now than Washington.  And Jacksonville isn't starting Rex Grossman.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Redskins 13

New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Lots to play for in this one: the Bears are looking for a first round bye and the Jets will be hoping to catch New England.  It should be cold and possibly snowy again in this game, and the Bears will be determined to protect their home field after they got pummeled by the Pats two weeks ago.  I like the Bears defense to contain the Jets, and in a low scoring game, Jay Cutler will make enough plays.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Jets 16

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are a different team with Matt Cassel in the lineup.  Without him they got routed by 31 points against the Chargers; with him the easily beat the Rams on the road.  I can't see Kansas City losing to an inferior team at home, where they're undefeated, and with a season in the balanace.  This team hasn't sniffed the playoffs in a while, and they get two straight home games to try to get there.  Arrowhead is a nice advantage to ride.

Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Titans 10

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

This is essentially a de facto play-in game for the playoffs believe it or not.  If the 49ers win, odds are that Seattle, the Rams, and the Niners will all finish 7-9 or worse, and if there is a tie, the Niners get in.  Unfortunately, the Niners probably aren't good enough to win this road game.

Prediction: Rams 26 – 49ers 16

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

It's Tim Tebow vs. Matt Schaub, and that's the only difference I can find between these two bad teams.

Prediction: Texans 21 – Broncos 20

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

At the beginning of this year this would have been unthinkable, but I think the Raiders can run the ball over Indy and will pressure Peyton Manning all day.  Oakland at home will play physical football and end the Colts playoff hopes.

Prediction: Raiders 24 – Colts 23

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

These two teams are battling for the last wild card spot.  Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play and has now had two weeks to recover from a concussion.  Lambeau is going to be absolutely rocking for this game, and Green Bay will be eager to play the type of football they're capable of.  The Packers' offensive line needs to have the best game of their season, and Green Bay must continue to run the ball throughout the game even if it doesn't produce huge results.  The Giants will pound the ball, but Green Bay has a stout run defense, and Eli Manning has been interception prone all year.  That's not good against Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Nick Collins.  Clay Matthews should make a big impact in this one as well.  Ultimately I think Rodgers is going to have a signature performance and save the Packers' season.  Go Pack Go!

Prediction: Packers 27 – Giants 23

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

Two in a row for Cincy?  Nope.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Bengals 17

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

This game isn't actually huge for Atlanta because they can still clinch home field without winning this game, and they play Carolina the last week of the year.  The Saints will be amped for this showdown and I think that will make this a very tough game.  But I can't pick against the red hot Falcons playing at home.

Prediction: Falcons 28 – Saints 27

NFL Week 15 Game Notes

Chargers over 49ers

Adam: -Sometimes when you're a fan of a team, you hate them more than anybody else does.  It's hard to root for this team, but amazingly, they are still right in the playoff race.
-San Diego looked good, but most decent teams do against the Niners.

Eric: -Look who's ready to play.  Vincent Jackson catches 5 balls for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns.
-The revolving door at quarterbacks named Smith continues to turn.  Troy Smith starts next week in a big divisional match against St. Louis—as big as an NFC West divisional matchup can get anyway.

Bills over Dolphins

A: -I should have known the Dolphins couldn't win at home.

E: -I know that none of them were closer than 48 yards, but missing four field goals in one game Dan Carpenter?  C'mon man!
-Miami is 1-6 at home this season, including going 0-3 against AFC East opponents.

Cowboys over Redskins

A: -Mike Shanahan wants to "see what he has" in Rex Grossman.  Can we revoke Shanahan's "genius" label?

E: -It is one thing to bench your veteran starter after your season's lost and you want to see what the young backup has got.  But in Washington's case, we all know exactly what Rex Grossman brings to the table.  I just don't get it.

Titans over Texans

A: -See ya Kubiak.

E: -Tennessee snapped its six-game losing streak and even dished out some payback in the process.  After Chris Johnson ran for just 5 (one, two, three, four, fif) rushing yards in the last Texans game, the Titans held Arian Foster to just 15 yards rushing this Sunday.

Bengals over Browns

A: -The Bengals had to win another game at some point.

E: -Speaking of getting out of a losing funk, the Bengals broke their own ten-game skid.

Eagles over Giants

A: -This game may totally shift the way the playoffs will shake out in the NFC.  How on earth do you punt to DeSean Jackson with just seconds left to play?  Horrible mistake, the Giants really blew a huge chance.  Now they have to travel to Green Bay, and instead of being in the playoffs driver's seat, the Giants could soon be kicked out of the whole picture.

E: -Don't kick it to him!

Panthers over Cardinals

A: -Bueller...Bueller...Bueller... Anyone…Anyone?

E: -Umm, Jonathon Stewart broke the century mark.

Colts over Jaguars

A: -Shame on you Jags for not sticking with the run game.
-The Colts finish with the Raiders and Titans.  The Jags get the Redskins and Texans.  It wouldn't be a stretch for both of these teams to end up at 10-6.

E: -The Colts live to fight another week.  If Indy wins out, they are AFC South champs.

Ravens over Saints

A: -This was a bigger game for the Ravens than the Saints.  People have been dogging Baltimore for their up and down play on both sides of the ball, but this is a really nice, clutch win against a Super Bowl contender.
-The Saints are likely playing for a wild card anyway so this loss won't kill them, but of course they would have liked to win.
-Ray Rice rushing for 153 yards on 31 carries is the formula for a happy Baltimore team.

E: -There's one man on the Ravens' offense that a defense you cannot have beat you, but Rice beat the Saints on Sunday.  His 233 total yards and two touchdowns earn my player of the week nomination.

Lions over Buccaneers

A: -26 straight road losses, not so fast.  Lions win.
-The Bucs are literally limping to the finish with a laundry list of injuries.

E: -With back-to-back wins against two teams in the heat of the playoffs race, Drew Stanton and the Lions have really embraced their role as spoiler.  If either the Packers or Bucs miss the postseason, they can look to their loss to Detroit as a main reason why.

Chiefs over Rams

A: -Pretty impressive: Matt Cassel could come back from an appendectomy in eleven days.
-Not so impressive: The Rams get routed at home.

E: -The Chiefs will not go away quietly, will not relent to San Diego just because they're winning.  They still lead their division and are playing like it with four wins in their last five games.
-Kansas City went 4-0 against the NFC.

Falcons over Seahawks

A: -This could have been a trap game but turned out not to be the case for the mechanically consistent Falcons.  Matt Ryan was efficient and Michael Turner put Seattle in the meat grinder on the ground.
-Atlanta appears to have the number one seed all but locked up needing only one more win to seal it, which if it doesn't come against the Saints next week, could easily happen against the Panthers the last game of the year.
-Atlanta has won eight in a row.

E: -With this win, the Falcons were the first NFC team to clinch a playoff spot.
-This is the third week this season that the NFC West has gone a combined 0-4.

Jets over Steelers

A: -The Steelers fall back into a first place tie with Baltimore, and the Jets get a huge win.
-I like this win for the Jets and Baltimore's win over the Saints.  Both teams were hearing doubts about their abilities.  This should help silence the critics.
-Troy Polamalu is out until the playoffs for the Steelers.

E: -Without Polamalu, the Steelers are a completely different unit.  In a game where many expected Mark Sanchez to struggle, missing Polamalu, the Steelers could not play their all out Blitzburgh style as they are wont to do.

Raiders over Broncos

A: -Tim Tebow's debut was unspectacular but he's tough to judge when he plays on perhaps the worst team in football.
-Oakland has a shot to go 9-7, which would be a landmark accomplishment for this franchise.

E: -Tebow had a decent debut with two touchdowns, one rushing and one passing, and no turnovers, but the Raiders had control of this game from the get-go.
-Oakland remains mathematically alive in the playoff race.  With two wins and some help, the Raiders could still take the division.

Patriots over Packers

A: -I was really impressed with Mike McCarthy in this game.  He managed this game in every aspect, shortened the game with the run, and allowed Matt Flynn to be surprisingly successful.  Ultimately the Patriots just had a little too much ammunition and the Packers came up one big play short.
-Green Bay still has a fighting playoff chance as they welcome the Giants and Bears to Lambeau the next two weeks.

E: -Flynn showed some moxie, but in the end we knew he wouldn't beat Tom Brady.
-Despite allowing 31 points, I applaud Green Bay's defense for never letting the game get out of hand for their overmatched signal caller; the game was close the whole way.

Bears over Vikings

A: -We likely saw the last play of Brett Favre's career in this game, though he loves playing so much that I wouldn't be shocked if he gave it a go next week.  Joe Webb looked athletic, but that's about all he looked.  Those were tough conditions for a rookie.
-The Bears, who I have doubted all season long, just won the NFC North and have a shot at getting a first round bye.  Amazing.  Jay Cutler was good and the defense was swarming.  Devin Hester doesn't hurt their chances either.

E: -The team that nobody has given any credit to, Chicago is the first team in the NFL to clinch its division.  Nice work Bears.

NBA Power Poll #8

1. San Antonio Spurs (23-3): This team in on pace to break the the record for wins in a season set by Michael Jordan's 72-10 Chicago Bulls.  I don't expect them to continue on this pace, but it's one hell of a start.

2. Boston Celtics (22-4): Thirteen wins in a row would usually put you in the top spot, but the Spurs just keep winning.

3. Miami Heat (21-8): Miami's on a twelve-game winning streak with a huge Christmas Day matchup against the Lakers looming.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (21-7): LA has had up and down stretches this year, but with Andrew Bynum back, this team should really start to take off.  A great sign is seeing Bynum score 16 points in his last game.

5. Dallas Mavericks (21-5): They drop to the fifth spot only because an average Bucks team snapped their win streak.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder (19-9): I don't think of this team as elite yet just because they rely too much on just two players, but they are certainly dangerous every night.

7. Utah Jazz (19-9): They are playing solid ball with five players scoring in double figures.  I still worry Deron Williams carries too heavy a burden.

8. Chicago Bulls (16-9): It's a shame that Joakim Noah has gone down for 8-10 weeks because he was playing great and this team was starting to gel with Carlos Boozer coming back.  I think they have enough talent to stay above water while Noah is out, but they'll struggle on the boards and with post defense.

9. Orlando Magic (16-10): Out go Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Marcin Gortat; in come Hedo Turkgolu, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark, and Gilbert Arenas.  The Magic improved their athleticism and talent level, but it may take all year for these new pieces to establish their roles and rhythms.

10. Denver Nuggets (16-10): Reports say the Nuggets are now aggressively listening to offers for Carmelo Anthony.  How does one listen aggressively?

--from Adam

Week 15 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
49ers at Chargers	49ers	Chargers
Bills at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Redskins at Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Texans at Titans	Texans	Texans
Browns at Bengals	Bengals	Browns
Eagles at Giants	Eagles	Giants
Cardinals at Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Jaguars at Colts	Jaguars	Colts
Saints at Ravens	Saints	Saints
Lions at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Chiefs at Rams	Chiefs	Rams
Falcons at Seahawks	Falcons	Falcons
Jets at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Broncos at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Packers at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Bears at Vikings	Bears	Bears
	Adam	Eric
Week 14 Record	11-5	9-7
Season Standings	121-87	124-84

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers

If you're searching for a legitimate reason to pick the Niners in this game, I guess you could point out that they are 5-3 over their last eight games.  Of course, they were 0-5 to start the season, but let's stay in the present.  Fortunately, I'm not looking for a reason to pick the Niners; I'm just going to pick them no matter what.  I do think that they are coming off their best game of the season against Seattle, and this short week may actually help them maintain some momentum, particularly offensively.  The Chargers are also coming off a blowout win over Kansas City, so we may get a game between two pretty confident teams.  Bottom line though, I'm picking my boys even if Vegas has them as 9 point underdogs.

Prediction: 49ers 27 – Chargers 22

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

It's hard to pick the Dolphins to win any home game, but with the Bills in town, it's a bit easier.

Prediction: Dolphins 26 – Bills 20

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

These teams are going in different directions.  After a solid start, the Redskins are falling apart.  After a horrific beginning, the Cowboys are playing some pretty good football right now.

Prediction: Cowboys 28 – Redskins 17

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

I'm not sure how the Texans can bounce back after that gut wrenching loss against the Ravens.  Luckily for them, the hapless Titans await.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Titans 13

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

This probably doesn't make sense but I just don't think Cincy will lose out.  They have to get another game this year, and this looks like a promising opportunity.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Browns 19

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

I think the weather is really important in this game.  If it rains/snows, the Giants have the edge because the game will turn into a battle of the running games.  But it's only a 30% chance of precipitation, and it won't be horribly cold with a predicted temperature of about 30 degrees.  A dry surface helps Michael Vick and his speed receivers gain traction.  The Eagles will make some big plays down the field, but they'll have plenty of issues blocking the Giants defensive line.  The Eagles' defense is underrated; I think they might pick off Eli Manning a couple times.  Asante Samuel should play, and that's a huge boost for Philly.  LeSean McCoy has been really good lately, but I'm not sure how many holes he'll have to run through this Sunday.  This game is a virtual toss-up, but in the end I'll go with Vick to outduel Manning.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Giants 24

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Yuck.

Prediction: Panthers 19 – Cardinals 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

The Jags can clinch the division with this victory.  The Colts have been up and down all year and have obvious deficiencies that even Peyton Manning can't conceal.  Indy can't stop the run, and that's not good news with Maurice Jones-Drew coming to town.  I also just saw an excellent E:60 piece on MJD, and I will be rooting for him from now on.  I think the Jags' front four will bother the Colts and the Jags will control the ball on offense.  If David Garrard is solid, the Jags will be in this game the whole way.  By the way, has anyone mentioned that Garrard has a 93 QB rating this year? This is the biggest game in years for Jacksonville.  With sixty good minutes, they can punch their playoff ticket, and for a franchise in danger of relocation, this is a game they must have.

Prediction: Jaguars 27 – Colts 21

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

This great matchup should be a test for both teams.  Right now though, I think the Saints are playing better football.  Drew Brees will be ready for this type of playoff environment.  The Saints are getting healthy and the Ravens defense is looking a little old in the past couple weeks.

Prediction: Saints 24 – Ravens 20

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs beat everyone they're supposed to, and the Lions don't win two in a row.  Or ever on the road.

Prediction: Bucs 20 – Lions 17

Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams

I don't think Matt Cassel will play in this game.  It just seems like ten days isn't enough to recover from an appendectomy.  In the case that Brodie Croyle starts, that's not good for the Chiefs.  He's 0-10 lifetime as a starter and led them to exactly zero points last week against the Chargers.  The Chiefs will pound the ball and ugly this game up a bit.  I think they can gash St. Louis on the ground and give rookie Sam Bradford problems with their 3-4 defense.  Ultimately the Rams may win because they will have the decided edge at quarterback, but I'm rooting for a Rams loss, so...

Prediction: Chiefs 16 – Rams 13

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Atlanta wins so consistently because they have a smart accurate quarterback, really good offensive line, playmaking receivers, and two punishing running backs.  They are so balanced that opponents can't take away all their strengths.  The defense has been playing extremely well too.  The Seahawks are reeling a little after getting blown out by the Niners, but this team is different every week, so no one knows which Seattle team will show up.

Prediction: Falcons 30 – Seahawks 19

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jets just don't scare me as a football team.  Their passing game is really anemic at times, and the defense doesn't seem to be creating havoc like they used to.  This is a bad time to travel to Pittsburgh, winners of four straight.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Jets 6

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Denver can't beat anybody.

Prediction: Raiders 21 – Broncos 9

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

I really want to pick the Pack in this game, but I can't justify it without knowing Aaron Rodgers' status.  Even if he plays, the Packers will have to travel to red hot New England, who boast the best offense and the best team in football.  If Rodgers is there, he will be able to hit some big plays against the Patriots so-so secondary, but I just can't see the Packers winning in this environment.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Packers 21

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikes will be up for this game since it's on Monday night.  Predictions are for -18 degree temperatures.  Ouch.  That normally wouldn't matter, but with the Metrodome popped, this game will most likely be held at the Gophers' outdoor stadium.  How many people are going to sit in that temperature to watch their 5-8 football team, which will be starting third stringer Joe Webb?  That should neutralize the Vikings' "home" field advantage.  The Bears will be eager to rebuild some confidence after the Pats wore them out last week.

Prediction:  Bears 17- Vikings 9