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Week 8 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Bills at Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Panthers at Rams	Rams	Rams
Packers at Jets	Packers	Packers
Redskins at Lions	Lions	Lions
Dolphins at Bengals	Dolphins	Bengals
Jaguars at Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Titans at Chargers	Chargers	Titans
Buccaneers at Cardinals	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Seahawks at Raiders	Seahawks	Seahawks
Vikings at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Steelers at Saints	Steelers	Steelers
Broncos at 49ers (London)	Broncos	Broncos
Texans at Colts	Texans	Colts
	Adam	Eric
Week 7 Record	11-3	10-4
Season Standings	56-48	62-42

Bye Weeks: Bears, Browns, Eagles, Falcons, Giants, Ravens

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills are an untalented team that doesn't do the little things right.  The Chiefs are a moderately talented team that does everything right.  Well coached, well prepared, and with a belief in their system, the Chiefs should beat Buffalo soundly.
Prediction: Chiefs 23 – Bills 13

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams
The Panthers got their first win last week, and Matt Moore gives them a chance to continue their competitive streak.  DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have to find some running lanes for Carolina to win this game.  Unfortunately, the Panthers' offensive line has been bad this year while the Rams' defense has improved.  Sam Bradford plays well at home, as does this whole Rams team.  Rams win.
Prediction: Rams 27 – Panthers 20

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
I have no idea why I'm leaning toward Green Bay with all their injuries, and the rested Jets ready to dial up the blitz against the one dimensional Packers.  Still, I gotta take Aaron Rodgers over Mark Sanchez.
Prediction: Packers 23 – Jets 20

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford will be back this week, and it will be good to see this Lions team get their franchise player back.  Stafford makes the deep pass, especially to Calvin Johnson, a much bigger threat.  Detroit has been close in so many games this year, and Washington has won a lot of close games.  I can't really justify my pick, but I think it will be close and the Lions have to win one of these games sometime. Additionally, the Redskins just don't have any offensive weapons that are imposing, nor do they have a very good offensive line.  Lions win.
Prediction: Lions 24 – Redskins 20

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals just aren't a good football team.  They have their moments on both sides of the ball, but they can't put it all together.  The Dolphins are in every game, and are 3-0 on the road.  I like the way Miami has a plan and believes that if they execute that plan, they'll be in a position to win.  I'll take Miami.
Prediction: Dolphins 21 – Bengals 16

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
Jon Kitna comes in for Dallas, which may mean that the Cowboys will run the ball more often.  That would be a good thing.  Kitna represents a big drop from Tony Romo, but the Jags just don't have much on either side of the ball, and Dallas is going to win some games this year.
Prediction: Cowboys 23 – Jaguars 14

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
I don't know why, but I think the Chargers have got to start winning sometime.
Prediction: Chargers 28 – Titans 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Tampa gets a huge opportunity to move to a shocking 5-2 record.  Arizona doesn't have a QB at all, and I just think Tampa will be able to score enough.  Bucs win.
Prediction: Buccaneers 21 – Cardinals 13

Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders
This is a tough one.  I don't believe the Seahawks are very good, but they are stable.  They stop the run well and Oakland's strength is its run game.  Jason Campbell will likely start; I just don't trust him.  I'll take Seattle to play less poorly and win.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 – Raiders 16

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
The Vikings are 0-3 on the road, and the Patriots are 3-0 at home.  Brett Favre has two fractures in his ankle, and if he plays, he won't play well.  If he doesn't play, Tarvaris Jackson won't play well.  The Vikings can't muster a pass rush and can't cover in the secondary: not a good recipe for beating the Pats.  Gimme New England.
Prediction: Patriots 27 – Vikings 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
The Saints haven't shown much of anything this year, and the Steelers are back at full strength with a tenacious defense and a loaded offense.  Pittsburgh wins a good one.
Prediction: Steelers 30 – Saints 23

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (in London)
It's too bad this is the game that Europe will get to see.  The Broncos got hammered last week by Oakland, and the Niners will be starting their third string quarterback.  I think the Broncos' struggles last week weren't entirely indicative of the type of team they are.  Denver will be able to throw the ball against a poor Niner secondary, whereas the San Francisco can barely muster a first down through the air.  I'll take Denver.
Prediction: Broncos 24 – 49ers 13

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are coming off a bye week with a chance to sweep the team that has done nothing but beat them up until this year.  The Colts are banged up with Dallas Clark gone for the year, Austin Collie questionable, and Bob Sanders out.  I think the Texans will be able to focus solely on stopping Peyton Manning, and the Colts won't be able to slow Matt Schaub and company.  Texans win.
Prediction: Texans 31 – Colts 24

Catch and Shoot: 10/27/10

Adam's thoughts from Wednesday night, opening night for most NBA teams

Cavaliers over Celtics

-The Celtics are going to struggle in back-to-backs this season as they did last year.

-The Cavs win their first game, and maybe for the only time all year, have a better record than the Heat.

Nets over Pistons

-The Pistons could be this year's Nets.

-The Nets just need a handful more wins to match last year's total.  Brook Lopez and Derrick Favors are going to be good together.

Heat over 76ers

-The Big Three weren't great, but they got a win.

-Evan Turner played well and looked like Philly's best player.

Knicks over Raptors

-Amare was good, and Wilson Chandler was better for the Knicks.

-It's going to be a long haul this year for Toronto.

Hawks over Grizzlies

-The Hawks get an easy win because Zach Randolph was M.I.A. in the post.

Kings over Timberwolves

-The Kings won a high scoring contest without Tyreke Evans, their best player.

Hornets over Bucks

-Andrew Bogut returns to action and records a double-double in the process.

-Chris Paul was magic with 16 assists.

Thunder over Bulls

-In a matchup of up-and-comers, the Thunder win.  Durant hit his averages from last year exactly with 30 points and 7 rebounds.

Mavericks over Bobcats

-How are the Bobcats going to score points this year?

Spurs over Pacers

-By pulling away in the fourth quarter, the Spurs manage the easy win.

-Darren Collison, Danny Granger, and Roy Hibbert combine for 73 points.

Nuggets over Jazz

-Carmelo looked comfortable in Denver blue.

-Memo to Al Jefferson: The season started last night.

Warriors over Rockets

-These two teams combined to put up 260 points.  Monta Ellis, Steph Curry, and David Lee will put up numbers all year.

Trailblazers over Clippers

-The Blazers net the nice win a back-to-back situation.

-Blake Griffin was really impressive going for 20 points and 14 boards.  He also had an incredible play where he dribbled the length of the court and flicked a no-look bounce pass to his teammate for the score.

Opening Night Thoughts

Celtics over Heat

-What I couldn't wait for all off-season was to see the star power oozing from Miami's starting five.  Despite three mega stars on the same team, on opening night, the Heat looked a lot like last year's Cavaliers—lots of LeBron James and everybody else watching.  James canceled Dwyane Wade out a bit because they both thrive on isolation and pick and roll sets.  So if one doesn't have the ball, he isn't nearly as impactful.  Neither Wade nor James is a great spot up shooter, so it is not as if those two can really set each other up.  Chris Bosh, while a skilled offensive player, doesn't play with his back to the basket, so just like Wade and Bosh, he needs space and the ball to be effective.
-Against deep teams with great defense like Boston, the Heat will look one-dimensional.  The good thing for Miami though is that not too many teams can D up like the Celtics.  This is only opening night; this Heat team will win plenty of games.  They need time to gel and figure out how the three stars can play off each other.  Boston's roster has largely been together for a long time, and has a lot of guys comfortable in their roles.  When these teams play again in a month or two, it will be a much different game.
-Boston looked really good.  Shaquille O'Neal was good crashing the boards, anchoring the paint on defense, and drawing fouls (though not at making many free throws).  Rajon Rondo had seventeen assists, Ray Allen was hot from outside, and Paul Pierce defended well and made plays to get others involved.  Glen Davis and Jermaine O'Neal looked like really good front court depth.  Marquis Daniels made some nice plays as well.  Kevin Garnett looked really live out there; he was moving great and was hedging on the pick and roll like he did in his prime.
-The Heat made a comeback in the third and fourth quarters, but that was largely because Boston was playing to protect a lead and the Heat were bombing away from outside.  The Heat must learn how to play in a half court mode, because that's what wins in the playoffs.
-Also for Miami, Eddie House cannot be playing twenty-seven minutes per game.  He is a streak shooter that should get no more than ten minutes when he is shooting well.

Blazers over Suns

-Steve Nash and Jason Richardson combined for forty-eight points in this game, but nobody else on Phoenix did much of anything.  Nash only had six assists, which is not the formula for this team to win ball games.
-The Blazers dominated this game by winning the battle inside and utilizing a balanced scoring attack.  The Blazers out-rebounded the Suns 48-30.  Rebounding is something the Suns will struggle with all year, and they will hope to combat that deficit with the three point shot.  The Blazers also had sixteen more assists than Phoenix, which is unusual for a Steve Nash team.
-LaMarcus Aldridge only scored eight points, and that is a good thing considering how much they won by.  Aldridge will have to do more throughout the year, but it's a great sign that they have other guys who can step up and score.  Once Greg Oden is back and healthy, this team could be really good.

Lakers over Rockets

-Laker fans, meet Steve Blake and Matt Barnes.  Last year in a pinch, we went to Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic, who were always good for a turnover or a bonehead play.  Now they have two veterans who can score and are born role players that have been coming off the bench and contributing their whole careers.  Blake was lethal from outside and showed his great ball distribution skills.  He also showed that he is leagues quicker than Derek Fisher, playing down the stretch because only he could stay in front of Aaron Brooks.  Shannon Brown was the other hero in this game, coming off the bench to put in sixteen points.  Blake and Brown have to take more minutes from Fisher, because they are simply better players.  Blake, Brown, and Kobe Bryant is a lethal backcourt.  Add it to Ron Artest, Barnes, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum and you've got the best team in the league.
-Bryant looked really good on that surgically-repaired knee scoring twenty-seven, and Gasol was huge going for twenty-nine points and eleven rebounds.  Odom looked great as well.
-The only issue last night was the Laker defense, which will come with time.
-The Rockets played really well in this game, and the backcourt combo of Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin showed that it is one of the best in the league.  Luis Scola was a monster with eighteen points and sixteen rebounds.  Yao Ming was good in the time he played, especially considering all the time he's missed.  I think he will give the Rockets about eleven points and eight rebounds if they stick to the twenty-four minute limit.  The Rockets also showed their great depth.
-The Rockets will be a playoff contender, and if Yao stays healthy, will be one of the Lakers' top challengers.


--from Adam

NFL Week 7 Game Notes

Browns over Saints

Adam: -Whenever you return two interceptions for scores and four picks overall you are going to win, even if you're Cleveland.
-Drew Brees threw the ball fifty-six times, and whenever that happens, some bad things will occur.  Brees is on pace for twnty-three interceptions this year, yikes.

Eric: -How does a defensive lineman return two interceptions for touchdowns?  That is pitiful, Brees.

Chiefs over Jaguars

A: -The Chiefs are a confident bunch that has shown they can play right with very good teams, and they also show that they can blow out the bad teams.  Thomas Jones was great and Matt Cassell was efficient.  The Chiefs are going to be right in the mix of playoff contention, considering they get the Bills at home next week, and then play Oakland, Denver, Arizona and Seattle.
-The Jaguars are worse than their 3-4 record indicates.

E: -Two teams matched up here that have so far outplayed preseason expectations, but that's as far as Jacksonville could get.  The Jaguars' third string quarterback, Todd Bouman, was not going to get it done in Arrowhead against a very tough Chiefs team.
-The Chiefs are playing well right in the middle of a very cushy spot in their schedule.  They are probably going to build up a big lead in the division race and squash any hopes the severely underachieving Chargers have for a fifth straight division title.

Ravens over Bills

A: -Oh, the Bills.  They had this game and then just gave it away.  Ryan Fitzpatrick had great numbers but couldn't get the win.
-The Ravens thank their lucky stars that they escaped with the victory.  Anquan Boldin has been terrific and is on pace for eighty-seven catches and 1,200 yards.

E: -A win's a win, but this was a head-scratcher for the Ravens.  How does a legitimate Super Bowl contender get dragged into overtime by the winless Bills and get outgained 506-364?  This was a scare, and the Ravens have to be glad that they have time to fix the problems from Sunday, rather than being in a situation where they're trying to build momentum.
-It's good to see Ed Reed back on the field.

Panthers over 49ers

A: -The 49ers are in absolute disarray.  I never thought I would pine for Alex Smith, but once David Carr came in, that's exactly where I found myself.  If Smith can't play for a while and Carr starts, the 49ers will lose all those games.  Carr is horrendous, and it's just a shame that Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are being wasted on this offense.
-The 49ers' defense was good against the run, but their coverage was awful against a terrible passing team.
-The Panthers have found their guy again in Matt Moore.  He wasn't incredible, but he was solid and made some really nice throws.  I'm not sure why they are interested in winning at 1-5, but more power to em'.  David Gettis is a player to watch at wideout; he's incredibly fast and ran some great routes.

E: -The Panthers notch their first win against a travelling, moribund franchise, the 49ers.
-Thanks to Charles Johnson, we'll now get to see if Alex Smith was the source of the 49ers' woes as another former first overall pick, David Carr, gets his chance to play quarterback.  Carr's Niners tenure did not get off to a good start though as he threw the interception that set the Panthers' game-winning field goal drive.
-There's no official diagnosis yet, but based on watching the play, I would be very surprised if Smith starts in London Sunday.

Titans over Eagles

A: -Andy Reid may be secretly smiling now that Kevin Kolb played poorly, and his decision to put Michael Vick back in gets a bit easier.
-The Eagles reach their bye week at a perfect time.   Still atop the division, they get an extra week to ease Vick back into things and get him fully healthy.
-The Titans scored thirty-seven straight points in this game, and Kenny Britt had the best day of any receiver so far this year.  Kerry Collins moved this football team up and down the field, even with mediocre production from Chris Johnson.

E: -Collins stepped up in a big way for the injured Vince Young to get the Titans past a surging Eagles team.  With Johnson bottled up for only sixty-six yards on the ground, Collins connected with Britt for big play after big play to the tune of seven grabs for 225 yards and three touchdowns.

Buccaneers over Rams

A: -Both these teams are really improved and likely got confidence from playing each other.
-The Bucs are 4-2.  They've won against some bad teams, but they've won the games and are right in the NFC South division race.  Josh Freeman has only thrown three interceptions this year and has been exactly the game manager this team needs.
-Sam Bradford is really good.  He throws a beautiful ball and is incredibly accurate.  He has three touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games.  This team has a chance to win the NFC West because of Bradford's play, though Seattle looks like he best team in this division.

E: -In a matchup between two of the NFL's feel-good teams, unfortunately, one team cannot leave the game feeling good.  And after losing by the slimmest of margins, one point, that unhappy team was the St. Louis Rams.

Steelers over Dolphins

A: -This game came down to a strange replay call, which is really unfortunate, because this was a terrific contest.  The Dolphins have played very well all year, yet have had some tough loses.
-They are 0-3 at home and 3-0 on the road, wacky.
-The Steelers lucked out and get the benefit of a dubious call.  Still, Ben Roethlisberger is fully back in the swing of things and his team is 5-1.  Next week should be fun as the Steelers travel to New Orleans to play the Saints.

E: -Between a slow start and a controversial replay near the end, the Steelers seem pretty lucky to leave South Beach with a victory.

Falcons over Bengals

A: - The Bengals were awful in the first half, but exploded for twenty-two points in the third quarter, much like week one against the Patriots.  We have seen the Bengals put up points in bunches, but they have just been too inconsistent.  With Baltimore and Pittsburgh driving forward, the Bengals are being left in the dust.
-The Falcons take control of the NFC South with a nice win, and Roddy White had an enormous game.  Even bigger than White, Michael Turner is on a 1,300 yard pace.  Throw in Tony Gonzalez and the play of Matt Ryan and we may be looking at the most balanced offense in the NFC.

E: -Even after a twenty-two point third quarter, the Bengals learned that the hard way that The Falcons are practically unbeatable at home.  Ryan is 16-1 in the Georgia Dome.

Redskins over Bears

A: -The Redskins have won their four games by a combined seventeen points.  That is the difference Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan make.  They have been winning really ugly, but nonetheless are still right in the NFC East mix.
-Jay Cutler looked like maybe he had kicked the turnover bug early this year, but he threw four completions to DeAngelo Hall Sunday, who happens to be a Redskin.  Matt Forte isn't getting the ball enough in the run game, maybe that's because the offensive line is horrible, but they certainly aren't doing any better at pass protection.

E: -What a strange game; Cutler throws four interceptions, all to Hall, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  The Redskins' offense also did not look very explosive, but they didn't have to be with the Cutler-to-Hall connection on full display.  Ryan Torain did go over a hundred yards on the ground though.

Seahawks over Cardinals

A: -The Cardinals simply don't have a QB.  Too bad the 49ers have a two game head start on getting that top pick!!  Ha!!
-The Seahawks are the best team in this division by default.  Matt Hasselbeck is good enough, and Marshawn Lynch is solid carrying the ball.  Russell Okung is back and really helps this offensive line.

E: -In a situation that no one's quite sure how transpired, the Seahawks beat the Cardinals in a game where first place in the NFC West was on the line.  Just think about that one for a minute.
-Mike Williams continues his resurgent season under Pete Carroll and catches ten balls for the second straight week.

Raiders over Broncos

A: -The Raiders score nine points in a loss to the 49ers last week so...it just makes sense that they would put up fifty-nine points the next week.  What?
-Darren McFadden would be leading the league in rushing had he not missed two games with injury, and the Raiders are still in the mix at 3-4.
-I thought the Broncos were a better team than their record indicated, but when you get housed by forty-five points at home against Oakland, you are as bad as it gets, 2-5 and headed to London to face off with the vaunted 1-6 49ers

E: -Prior to this matchup, the AFC West cellar was full up with three 2-4 teams.  The Raiders blowed out and stepped up to the West's second tier behind Kansas City.  The standings are completely flip-flopped from where we thought they'd be before the season began.

Patriots over Chargers

A: -I'm not sure the Pats are as good as 5-1 would indicate, but give them credit, they keep finding ways to win.
-The Chargers aren't as bad as 2-5, but keep finding ways to lose.

E: -This game went down to the wire, and there was another fourth and short late where Bill Belichick went for it to try and run out the clock but failed to convert, like the Indy loss last year.  It didn't come back to bite him here though as Josh Brown missed the fifty yarder that would've tied the game.

Packers over Vikings

A: -The Vikes are in disarray with Brad Childress and Brett Favre bickering like an old married couple.  Next for the struggling purple people eaters comes a trip to Foxborough to play the Patriots.
-Favre has been just plain bad this year.  He has a passer rating of 68, has turned the ball over fourteen times (ten picks and four lost fumbles), and is on pace for twenty-seven interceptions, twenty more than last year.  Adrian Peterson might be the MVP if he were on a better team.
-The Packers struggled with running the ball and Aaron Rodgers made a few bad plays.  The defense didn't get enough pressure on Favre, but did pick him three times.
-At 4-3 the Packers are right in position to win their division, but they better be ready to play; their next four games are against the Jets, Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons.

E: -The Packers escape with a win; Brett Favre was not so lucky.  He exits Lambeau with a fractured ankle and heel.

Giants over Cowboys

A: -For the Cowboys, this game started like they were going to get on a roll and save their season.  It's hard to believe a team this talented is 1-5.  Dez Bryant is a budding star, Roy Williams is playing great, and Miles Austin and Jason Witten are true stars.  With Tony Romo out for at least six weeks, any hopes of a revival in Big D are undone.  This team may be picking in the top five of next year's draft.
-Since losing consecutive games to the Colts and Titans by a combined forty-three points, the Giants have won four straight games by an average of just over twelve points per game.  Their defensive line is intimidating, and Jason Pierre-Paul is a nice addition to this athletic front.  He could be a breakout player in the second half of the season.
-Offensively the Giants look really good.  Their offensive line has recaptured their 2007 form, Eli is solid and getting the ball to one of the league's best receiving corps.  Hakeem Nicks is going to be a superstar, Steve Smith is a great route runner with smooth moves and great hands, and Mario Manningham is quick with big play ability.  Kevin Boss is a very good all around tight end.  And, oh yeah, Ahmad Bradshaw leads the NFC in rushing.

E: -It's not often that a team creates five turnovers, returns a punt for a touchdown, and still loses the game.  The Cowboys figured out a way to do it though.
-So long paper champions!

2010 NBA Season Preview: Position Rankings

Point Guard

1. Deron Williams (Jazz) - He gets the nod over Chris Paul because of his bull-like strength and his range from outside. Paul is better at controlling the pace of an entire game, but Williams has slightly better court vision and has been healthier recently. With both guys dealing with the worst set of teammates in years, we should get a good look at who can elevate their team higher.
2. Chris Paul (Hornets) - Lightning quick, a great passer, and probably the best ball handler in the NBA, Paul impacts the game as much as LeBron James, Dwight Howard, or Kobe Bryant. If he's healthy, he can pass Williams on this list.
3. Russell Westbrook (Thunder) - This is a bit of a projection, but I think this guy, alongside Kevin Durant, is about to absolutely take off. He is the fastest, highest flying point guard in the league, and he might be the strongest too. He is a slightly better than average shooter and a very good passer. He is a better athlete than Derrick Rose and a more natural player on the floor.
4. Derrick Rose (Bulls) - He kind of looks like a kitty and is certainly as quick as one. Rose lacks a shooter's touch and is a good but not great passer. He can, however, get to the hoop whenever he pleases, and is still young and learning the game at 22 years old.
5. Rajon Rondo (Celtics) - If he could develop a jumper, Rondo could be at the top of this list. As he is, the man is a walking triple double. He controls the pace of the game nearly like Paul and is absolutely fearless. He also gets props for leading a group of veterans despite his young age.

Shooting Guard

1. Kobe Bryant (Lakers) - You're going to have to knock off the king before you take his throne. No NBA player has ever had the plethora of offensive moves that Bryant possesses. He is deadly from mid-range, great in the post, and is pretty good from long range too. His health and the fact that he is entering his fifteenth year are real concerns.
2. Dwyane Wade (Heat) - He is clutch like Bryant and a tremendous finisher around the rim. He has a good mid-range game, is a tremendous defender, and can absolutely fill up the stat sheet. This great pure scorer plays off the ball well.
3. Joe Johnson (Hawks) - A great pure shooter with good size, Johnson plays a smart game. He is an excellent ball handler and has shown the ability to score in the clutch for his team. He is a sizeable step below Bryant and Wade, but is still an elite player.
4. Tyreke Evans (Kings) - You could argue he is more of a point guard, but this guy is a chucker, and really is a natural two guard. He has a decent jumper, but his greatness stems from his size, ball handling, and vision. He can get to the hoop whenever he wants.
5. Monta Ellis (Warriors) - He is a little hard to judge because he plays for the Warriors who fire at will, but Ellis still makes for a very good shooter, athlete, and pure scorer.

Small Forward 

1. LeBron James (Heat) - The best all-around player in the game today has likely the best bundle of size, athleticism, and talent in the league's history. James can be anything he wants, and now that he has Wade and Bosh to help him in the clutch, he can just relax and be the playmaker/facilitator that he was born to be. A beast in transition, a transcendent passer, a great defender, and an improving shooter, this guy is unstoppable.
2. Kevin Durant (Thunder) - "Smooth" is the singular word to describe this guy. He has a flat out pretty jumper, silky offensive game, and a great head on his shoulders. He neutralized Bryant during stretches in last year's playoffs and hit clutch shots. He doesn't fear the moment, and he has the talent to potentially move past James on this list.
3. Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets) - Anthony has as much offensive game as Bryant, James, or Durant. He might be the best offensive player in the game in terms of pure scoring: great mid-range game, chiseled big body that he uses well in the post, and a good three point shooter.
4. Danny Granger (Pacers) - The best player nobody knows about, Granger is a twenty-five point per game scorer over the last three years. This smooth shooter with a versatile skillset just needs some help to put his team into contention.
5. Rudy Gay (Grizzlies) - He needs to develop a better in-between game, but he is a tremendous, long athlete that is a beast in the open floor.

Power Forward 

1. Pau Gasol (Lakers) - Nobody has the skill or variety of weapons this man has in the post. Completely ambidextrous with the softest touch I have ever seen, he added a 15'-18' jumper last year that made him lethal. He is also the best passing big man in the game and probably has the best hands of any post player. He is just as smart on the court as his teammate Bryant, and that is why the Lakers have won back-to-back titles.
2. Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks) - Nowitzki is the best long range shooting big man in the league's history. This incredibly smart offensive player can handle the ball, pass, and post up with ease. There really is nothing he can't do, but he is getting up in age a bit.
3. Chris Bosh (Heat) - Bosh has a Gasol-like game, but he isn't quite as polished and is two inches shorter. He has an excellent mid-range shot and great post moves. With his super friends, Bosh can take his game to a new level.
4. Amare Stoudemire (Knicks) - He has as much offense as any player on this list. He has an underrated jumper, is still an elite athlete, and is great in the pick and roll game. His defense is awful however.
5. Luis Scola (Rockets) - This may surprise some, but if you saw what he did at FIBA, you aren't shocked a bit. He has a good offensive game and is a great rebounder and good defender. He does everything well and fits with any style of play.

Center 

1. Dwight Howard (Magic) - Easily the league's best center, this tremendous athlete is adept at blocking shots and is a superb rebounder. On offense he is mostly a dunker and needs to develop more of a post-game.
2. Tim Duncan (Spurs) - The old vet continues to be incredibly efficient. He has lost a step or two, but still uses the glass better than anybody else, and he can't be stopped on the block.
3. Brook Lopez (Nets) - A rare true center in today's game, Lopez is really strong, good with both hands, and has a nice touch around the rim.
4. Chris Kaman (Clippers) - He may be the ugliest man in the league, but his game looks a bit better. This guy is an absolute bruiser that gets garbage points and is great on the boards.
5. Andrew Bynum (Lakers) - If he could ever stay healthy, Bynum could shoot to second or third on this list. He has great size and strength and a really nice offensive game for a young center.

(all images from espn.com)

2010 NBA Season Preview: Playoffs and Awards

Red Carpet Section

MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

Rookie of the Year: John Wall, Washington Wizards

Sixth Man of the Year: JR Smith, Denver Nuggets

Most Improved Player: Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers

Coach of the Year: Mike D'Antoni, New York Knicks


The Playoffs Baby!

Where I make entirely pre-mature on predictions that are based games which exist only in my mind, let's do it!!

Finals Remix Edition - Lakers vs. Celtics

There is greater depth in the West, so each round will be a battle for the Lakers.  The Lakers will be a visible notch better than any other Western team, but they tend to let teams hang around and they will be tested.

While the Celtics should have an easy first round, the sledding will get real tough facing the Magic and Heat in consecutive rounds.  The salty veteran Celtics will ultimately relish being underdogs to the self-indulgent Heat.  Depth, defense, and chemistry will get Boston past Miami.

The matchup of Lakers versus Celtics is entirely reliant on health, as both teams are aging, and have key players that have had injury issues.  For the sake of fun, and having a control in this experiment I will assume that both teams are at relative full strength, which means a healthy Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant for LA, and a healthy Paul Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, and Kevin Garnett for Boston.

The layers to this matchup are so many and so juicy that I can hardly wait to see it happen.  Shaq vs Kobe in a Finals matchup between some of the deepest teams the league has seen in the past ten years, the Lakers will be looking to tie Boston with 17 titles for most all time, and Boston is still chirping that LA has never beaten them with their full complement of healthy players (Boston seems to overlook that LA hasn't had a healthy Bynum either time the two have met in the finals).  Bryant will still be the best player in the series, and Pau Gasol will be the second best.  Rajon Rondo though, could reach a new stratosphere this year, and has all the skill to make this Boston team the best in the league.

Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, and Theo Ratliff replace Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Josh Powell as position substitutes, and represent a huge upgrade in skill, reliability, defense, ball handling, and veteran stability.  Ratliff won't play much if the Gasol-Bynum-Lamar Odom triumvirate is healthy, but he can come in and rebound and challenge shots against any team.  Blake and Barnes are huge additions that could start for a lot of teams, and both understand exactly what their role will be.

Ultimately, I like the Lakers talent more than Boston's by just a pinch.  LA's offseason acquisitions close the defense and toughness edge Boston previously held.  The Lakers will three-peat, and Phil will get his twelfth championship.

Lakers in 7.

2010 NBA Season Preview: Best of the West

1. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have been to the finals three straight times, and by all outward appearances, they have their deepest and most talented team in the post-Shaquille O'Neal era.  They have added Matt Barnes who can shoot the three, slash to the hoop, is a great defender, and has played deep into the postseason numerous times.  Steve Blake is a quick point guard with excellent ball handling and ball distribution skills.  He also is a near forty percent three point shooter, and long range threats are one of the few things the Lakers have lacked recently.  Theo Ratliff may not have much left, but he won't be asked to play very many minutes.  Now consider what the Lakers bring back from last year.  Kobe Bryant is still a top-five player in the NBA, and Pau Gasol is the best offensive big man in the league.  Lamar Odom is an excellent sixth man whose greatest strengths are ball handling, passing, and rebounding.  Ron Artest struggled offensively last year, but was still a bulldog on defense, and may excel this year with a year of experience in the triangle.  Shannon Brown is a superb athlete with potential to be much more, and Derek Fisher will play a reduced role according to Brown's emergence and Blake's arrival.  Andrew Bynum has All Star potential, and last year averaged a very respectable fifteen points and eight rebounds per game.  With Bynum as the perfect segue, we reach the big hairy "but" for the Lakers coming into this year.  Yes they have huge talent, BUT, how healthy will they be?  Health is the only thing that can deter the Lakers march to the Finals this year.  If Bynum can't stay on the court, if Bryant starts to slow down and get banged up, or if Fisher can't hold up, then the Lakers could have some issues.  The biggest key is obviously Bryant, but if Bynum could play close to a full season without injury, this team could be historically good.

Predicted Record: 60-22
Team MVP: Kobe Bryant
Key Player for the Lakers' Championship Hopes: Andrew Bynum

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

I'm not real confident about who should be second in the West, which is part of the reason I am so confident the Lakers will finish first yet again.  There doesn't seem to be a team behind LA without major questions or flaws.  The Thunder have some incredible young talent and went toe-to-toe with the Lakers in the playoffs last year.  Kevin Durant is easily one of the best four players in the game.  Russell Westbrook has superstar potential, and is already an All Star caliber player.  I believe that we will be including him in the same conversation as Chris Paul and Deron Williams by the end of this year.  Despite the Derrick Rose stroking and Rajon Rondo infatuation, Westbrook is the better than either of those two.  The problem for the Thunder is that beyond Durant and Westbrook, there isn't much scoring punch or experience.  James Harden is probably their third-best player, and he could easily develop into an eighteen-to-twenty point per game performer, perhaps as early as this year.  If that does happen, then the Thunder have a chance to battle the Lakers for the West Crown.  Jeff Green is a nice, versatile player in the Lamar Odom role, and if Durant, Westbrook, and Harden can carry the scoring load, than Green can simply facilitate, rebound, and score when the opportunity arises.  Thabo Sefolosha is an athletic young slasher who is a really nice option off the bench.  Nenad Krstic doesn't offer too much in the pivot, and the Thunder will be hoping that top pick Cole Aldrich can be the physical body they lacked last year in the post.  However, in playoff basketball you must have a go-to post player on offense, and the Thunder simply do not possess one.  Aldrich is a live body with good strength and work ethic, but his offensive game is limited, and there isn't another big on this squad who can fill up the stat sheet.  The Thunder will be able to play up-tempo and outscore a lot of teams in the regular season, but their lack of a go-to player in the half court other than Durant will ultimately hold them back from a championship.

Predicted Record: 55-27
Team MVP: Kevin Durant
Key Player: James Harden

3. Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is up to their usual preseason tricks, talking a good game and preparing to walk the walk, that is until the playoffs arrive.  I think this is the year that Dirk Nowitzki will take a small step backward, and Jason Kidd may take a big step back.  Still with Nowitzki, Caron Butler, Kidd, Shawn Marion, and Jason Terry, the Mavs have loads of talent and veteran experience.  Roddy Beaubois is an exciting guard off the bench but he is not a breakout star like so many are claiming.  Tyson Chandler can be huge for this team if he stays healthy and realizes that his role is simply to rebound, block shots, and catch alley-oops.  Still, the Mavs over recent years have been searching for the right combination of players to put them over the top, but they've yet to find it.  Despite plenty of ability up and down this roster, Nowitzki is their only true superstar, and he has big weaknesses on defense.  A jump shooting seven footer is not really the formula for winning titles, and that has shown in the Mavericks' recent history.  Nowitzki won't get traded any time soon, but until he has a true second star to play with, this team will be stuck on the outer edge of championship contention.  Butler is a nice scorer, but he isn't a guy that carry this team for stretches in a playoff series.  The NBA is a league where a superstar player counts for much more than a bunch of good role players, and unfortunately for Dallas, they have just one star who's past his prime.

Predicted Record: 53-29
Team MVP: Dirk (Diggler) Nowitzki
Key Player: Caron Butler

4. San Antonio Spurs

I'm not just ready to throw the towel in on the Spurs.  I don't think they have a real shot at winning the Championship, but they can make a postseason run and be a very tough out for anybody in the West.  Tim Duncan is clearly slowing down, but his game is so efficient, methodical, and refined that a lost step in athleticism doesn't diminish its overall impact all that much.  Tony Parker is a star point guard, and Manu Ginobli, while getting long in the tooth, is still an elite offensive playmaker.  There are two keys this coming year for the Spurs' success: the first is the health of their big three, because if those guys aren't on the floor, the Spurs cease to be a scary team, and second is the play of European import, Tiago Splitter.  The Spurs drafted Splitter in 2007, and he has been marinating overseas ever since.  Splitter is regarded by many as one of the best international or non-NBA players in the world.  Now he enters the NBA, and with good size, a myriad of moves in the post, and a real grasp of the game, he fits perfectly into the Spurs efficient half-court approach.  Splitter can spell Duncan by playing center, or play next to him at power forward.  Splitter, Duncan, DeJuan Blair, and Antonio McDyess represent one of the deepest and best frontcourts in the NBA.  Parker and Ginobli were complemented nicely by rookie George Hill last year, who should continue to blossom under coach Greg Popovich, a master at player development.  Throw in swing man Richard Jefferson and you have a complete, multi-talented, experienced, and smart team that can beat anybody on a given night.  If Splitter can be very good—think fifteen points and ten rebounds per game—the Spurs can compete for a championship.  If Splitter is just solid, expect the same results as last year, an early playoff exit.

Predicted Record: 52-30
Team MVP: Tony Parker
Key Player: Tiago Splitter

5. Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers can no longer hide behind the "up and coming" label that they have worn over the last few years.  Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have to move their games a higher level if this team wants to make a run in the West.  Talent is present on this roster in abundance, but thus far postseason success has not been.  Roy is a very good player, top-fifteen in the league.  Aldridge may be a top-thirty player.  That is a very nice young core, but it has to be complemented by more than role players in order to compete with the Lakers, Heat, Celtics, Thunder, etc.  Greg Oden's knee is mending, which is one of two modes his knee can be in, the other being completely wrecked.  If he can't play solid minutes for most of this season, he has to be considered a full disappointment.  Oden doesn't have to be great, he just has to be on the floor and use his body to rebound, block shots, and intimidate opponents around the rim.  Marcus Camby and Joel Pryzbilla are solid veterans that provide good rebounding and defense, but little scoring punch at the center position.  Andre Miller has some good flashes left in him, but is mostly a slow veteran with an awkward jumper.  Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and Rudy Fernandez all bring talent to the table, but none is a complete player than can fully claim the small forward position.  The Blazers appear to be a team that will have to be content to be good but not great for another year, unless they can somehow swing a deal for Carmelo Anthony.

Predicted Record: 50-32
Team MVP: Brandon Roy
Key Player: LaMarcus Aldridge

6. Houston Rockets

Yao Ming is obviously the key for this team if they hope to be elite.  If Ming could possibly play a healthy full season—they plan to strictly limit his minutes—then the Rockets could be a serious challenger to the Lakers.  But the likelihood of Ming staying on the court is extremely low.  However, the Rockets are used to playing without Ming, and have a really nice collection of talent.  Kevin Martin is a really good scorer, especially because he shoots such a high percentage from the field.  He is one of the most efficient perimeter players in the NBA.  Aaron Brooks is a star in the making; his quickness is special.  I love Shane Battier as a role player.  He's incredibly smart, shoots the three very well, and is an excellent on-ball defender.  Luis Scola might have been the best player at the FIBA championships this summer, and I think he could make an All Star Game appearance this year.  Courtney Lee is a talented young guard that will give a nice scoring punch off the bench.  The thing I like most about this team is their coach Rick Adelman.  He is one of the few coaches in the NBA that really makes a difference.  His teams play organized every night, and they also play great defense.

Predicted Record: 49-33
Team MVP: Aaron Brooks
Key Player: Yao Ming

7. Denver Nuggets

Clearly this ranking is subject to change if Carmelo Anthony gets traded.  As they are presently constituted, the Nuggets are one of the most talented teams in the league, yet that talent has yet to translate into much postseason success.  This is a confident team, but they are a bit feast or famine.  At their best they have the mental edge to play right with the Lakers.  At their worst they are self-destruction personified.  Chauncey Billups is a great leader, but he is really getting up in years, and the supporting cast around Anthony, while talented, hasn't proven strong enough yet to get this team over the top.  Nene is a very solid post player, Chris Anderson is a good shot blocker, and Kenyon Martin has talent, but has battled injuries lately.  Nene is their best offensive post option, but they lack an elite inside player.  Al Harrington is a good addition on paper.  He is a proficient and versatile scorer, but he doesn't play much defense at all, and shares a "badittude" with just about every other player on the Nuggets team.  JR Smith has superstar talent, but has had plenty of time to capitalize on that ability and simply has not.  I think Ty Lawson may take some serious minutes away from Billups this year.  The Nuggets are ultimately a frightening team to play from a talent standpoint, but they have to stay out of their own way.

Predicted Record: 48-34
Team MVP: Carmelo Anthony (if he stays)
Key Players: Carmelo Anthony, because he has to stay for them to have a shot

8. Memphis Grizzlies

In the NBA, the traditional powers rule the day, and breaking onto the scene as a young team can be very difficult.  The Grizzlies took a major step forward last year, finishing just one game under .500.  Talent is on this roster in droves.  Marc Gasol is over seven feet tall with a wide body and has some nice touch around the rim.  Considering the relative league-wide weakness at the position, Gasol has the potential to be an All Star center.  Playing next to him at power forward is Zach Randolph, who put up MVP-type numbers last year.  He was potent offensively, averaging twenty points and twelve rebounds per game.  Then you look to the wing, and Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo represent maybe the best young guard-forward combo in the league.  Both guys can go for thirty points on any given night.  Point guard Mike Conley had been a disappointment up until last year when he started getting major minutes and played solidly.  He should continue to improve with scorers all around him.  Hasheem Thabeet really struggled last year, even pulling a stint in the D-League, but he won't have to score on this team.  If he can just give the Grizz fifteen minutes of rebounding and defense per game, he will have made a big contribution.  I really like the addition of Tony Allen, who comes over from the Celtics.  He is an excellent defender and brings a ton of championship experience to a team where most players have never even been to the playoffs.  The Grizzlies have the ability to beat anybody in the league; it's now just a matter of effort and execution.

Predicted Record: 46-36
Team MVP: Zach Randolph
Key Player: Mike Conley

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9. Phoenix Suns

The Suns were in the lottery two years ago and the Western Conference Finals last year.  So which team will we see this year?  The answer is probably something between those two extremes.  Steve Nash is still a great shooter, passer, and ball handler, but with major wear and tear on his 36-year-old body and the enormous responsibility of carrying this team, I think we will see a dip in his production.  Certainly the Suns will miss Amare Stoudemire's twenty and ten production, but they did bring in a lot of nice pieces to surround Nash.  Josh Childress returns from Greece to play for the Suns.  He brings athleticism, shooting, and smarts.  Hakim Warrick also comes aboard and is a terrific athlete who will be a very nice pick and roll and transition option for Nash.  Hedo Turkgolu struggled in Toronto last year, but may have a renaissance in Phoenix as this team perfectly complements his skill set.  Robin Lopez, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark, and Channing Frye fill out a deep and talented roster.  All of these players are really ideal for the Phoenix system, but ultimately there is no star on this team outside of Nash, and the old veteran may not be able to find the magic again this year.

10. Utah Jazz

Jerry Sloan and his squad aren't used to missing the postseason, but with the loss of Carlos Boozer, Matthews, and Kyle Korver, a rebuilding process is probably under way in Salt Lake. Williams is one of the top-ten players in this league, and Al Jefferson is a nice power forward who fills up the stat sheet but doesn't play defense.  Beyond Williams and Jefferson, the cupboard looks pretty bare.  Paul Milsap is a solid forward, and Memhet Okur can shoot but can't do much else.  CJ Miles , Raja Bell, Ronnie Price, and Andrei Kirilenko round out the lineup.

11. New Orleans Hornets

If Paul does end up getting traded, this could be the worst team in the NBA.  Trevor Ariza is a nice addition, but he wasn't the star companion Paul is looking for.  David West and Emeka Okafor are decent duo in the pivot, but won't scare anyone.  This team will win games only because of CP3.  The rest of the roster is mostly unproven young guys or over the hill veterans.

12. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have much more upward potential than a few of the teams ahead of them on this list, but it's just hard to trust this franchise.  Eric Gordon looked like a star in the making at the FIBA championships.  2009 number one overall pick Blake Griffin will be ready to go for this season after missing all of last year.  Chris Kaman is a rough and tumble center who puts up good numbers night in and night out.  Baron Davis has been up and down in L.A. and may be getting a bit old, but he still has playmaking ability.  Randy Foye is a talented third guard, and this year's top pick Al-Farouq Aminu is an impressive athlete who will need time to develop.

13. Golden State Warriors

This team gave up a lot of talent and depth to acquire forward David Lee from the Knicks, so Lee has to produce big time for this trade to be justified.  Fortunately, numbers come cheap in the Warriors' up-tempo offense.  Steph Curry and Monta Ellis make up a really dynamic young guard tandem.  Andris Biedrins is a solid rebounder and shot blocker in the post, and top pick Ekpe Udoh has the athleticism to fit nicely on this team.

14. Sacramento Kings

Tyreke Evans showed that he has superstar ability in his rookie year.  This year's top pick, Demarcus Cousins, has the chance to be an absolute monster in the post.  I think Cousins will be an All Star before long.  Evans and Cousins give this team great building blocks.  The problem is that there is almost no impressive talent on the rest of the roster.

15. Minnesota Timberwolves

The T'Wolves take their familiar spot in the basement of the Western Conference.  Michael Beasley adds talent and scoring punch to a frontcourt that sorely needs it.  Kevin Love is a solid player that rebounds and passes well, but is a liability because of his lack of athleticism.  Johnny Flynn had a promising rookie year and should improve measurably this year.  Swingman Corey Brewer had his best year as a pro last year, and brings defense and incredible athleticism to the wing.  This year's top pick Wesley Johnson could be a special player.  Overall this team has some talent, but not nearly enough.  They are just too young and too shallow on the bench to put any type of season together.

2010 NBA Season Preview: Beasts of the East

1. Miami Heat

The Heat have three of the best fifteen players in the NBA, and two of the best five.  That will be plenty to hammer the opposition during the NBA's semi-lethargic regular season.  Things will get much tougher for the Three Amigos once the postseason rolls around and they will have to compete with Boston's depth and savvy, Orlando's inside dominance, the Bulls' speed and versatility, and the general burden of having every team, fan, and arena live to see them lose.  Still, LeBron James is the best all-around player in hoops, and with Dwyane Wade on his wing, and Chris Bosh scoring in the post, his effectiveness will (alarmingly) skyrocket.  I don't expect James' scoring numbers to dip much because he, Wade, and Bosh will do the bulk of Miami's scoring.  James will have a chance though to showcase the two best elements of his game: his passing and transition basketball.  With two superstars to fill up the hoop around him, James can play at absolute full speed, which is to say, about two steps ahead of everyone else.  I think James is going to thrive in Miami because he has people to share the burden of the spotlight with now, and guys he can trust to make a big shot in the clutch.  With Wade and James on the wing, the Heat's perimeter defense will be stifling.  Bosh will be huge as, especially in the postseason, an essential offensive force in the pivot when the game takes on a half court style.  Health will be a major key for the Heat.  If all of the big three can stay healthy and log big-time minutes in the playoffs, they should be in the Finals.  If one of the big three goes down, I don't believe the supporting cast is strong enough to make up for that lost production.  Speaking of the supporting cast, I do like what the Heat were able to do with incredibly depleted resources after paying three mega-stars.  Udonis Haslem is a rock defensively and on the boards.  He also has a solid mid-range jump-shot, and that will be perfect for the pick and roll game with James and Wade.  Zydrunas Illgauskas has good size and a nice jumper, but he is an absolute statue on the floor and has a lot of weaknesses at this point in his career.  Mario Chalmers has a chance to really shine in this offense if he can accept a reduced scoring role and focus on getting the ball where it needs to be at the right times.   Mike Miller is a capable scorer off the bench and will fit in nicely as a deadeye, spot up shooter.  Still, the players I have thus far listed are about the extent of the Heat's depth, and while all of these players fill a role nicely, none are complete players who can log major minutes in case of an injury.  My analysis of this team ultimately comes down to this: James led a talent depleted Cavaliers team to back-to-back sixty win campaigns.  Those Cleveland teams were seriously weak, yet James made them elite.  Let James play alongside Wade and Bosh, and that trio is better than what Jordan had with Rodman and Pippen, at least from a talent standpoint.  The questions for this team will be: Can this team subvert their egos for the good of the team?  Can the ball dominating tendencies of the big three meld into an efficient ball sharing offense?  Can the big three stay healthy, and how much can the role players provide?  James, Wade, and Bosh have the ability to make a lot of these questions null and void.

Predicted Record: 67-15
Team MVP: LeBron James
Key Player for the Heat's Championship Hopes: Mario Chalmers

2. Boston Celtics

The great thing about the Celtics is how much they believe they are the best team in basketball.  You could just see that they thought they were better than the Lakers in last year's finals, and had Kendrick Perkins been healthy, they may very well have hoisted the Larry O'Brien last year.  The popular depiction of this Celtics team is that they are old and slow.  That is in part true, but Kevin Garnett is now two years removed from a serious knee injury, and he seems to be more agile than he has been since the championship season.  I think Garnett will look a lot like his old self this year: challenging shots, running the floor, and playing at an All Star level.  Ray Allen keeps himself in incredible shape, and he was the best of the big three during the regular season last year.  His playoff struggles have been a bit mysterious over the past three seasons, but he is still a very positive player for Boston.  Paul Pierce appears to be really slowing down, but can still score both with his back to the basket and in isolation sets.  Now, the big three alone can't carry Boston to a title like they did in 2008, but with the depth on this team, they won't have to.  Rajon Rondo is a top-five point guard in the NBA, and he increases the effectiveness of every other player on the roster.  Rondo gives the Celtics a matchup advantage at point guard against the Miami Heat, and against most other teams as well.  Another area where Boston can really exploit the Heat is down low.  Yes, Bosh is a great offensive player, but he isn't bulky, and he isn't a real presence at the rim.  Enter Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins, and Glen Davis, giving you by far the deepest frontcourt in the league.  They can throw so many bodies at opposing bigs that they will wear down other teams.  With the exception of Garnett, none of these big men has star potential; they are all viable starting players that can combine to create matchup nightmares for opponents though.  The depth in the backcourt is impressive as well with the return of Nate Robinson and Marquis Daniels, plus the addition of Delonte West.  This Celtics team has confident, experienced players up and down their roster, and age will be less of a factor because with their depth because no player will have to take on too large of a minutes burden.  In the playoffs, the Celtics will have a ton of options against the Heat and Magic, and with their incredible defense they will frustrate any team.  Nobody will take Boston out in less than six games, and I would put my money on the Green Machine in most any series.  I also think Doc Rivers may be the best coach in the NBA.  Talent, experience, depth, and savvy make Boston a frontline favorite for the championship.  They will pace themselves during the season, but once those playoffs start, look out.

Predicted Record: 56-26
Team MVP: Rajon Rondo
Key Player: Paul Pierce

3. Orlando Magic

Orlando is a very good team, but without a true sidekick for Dwight Howard, they will never be great.  As of right now they simply don't have the horses to beat Boston, the Lakers, or Miami.  Howard is as dominant a force as exists in the league, and so this team will win fifty-plus games as usual, but will ultimately be limited in the playoffs.  Jameer Nelson is good, not great, and Vince Carter is going to give up as many points as he scores.  Rashard Lewis is a good three point shooter, but he disappears for long stretches during big games and is just not worthy of the huge contract that he has.  I like the addition of Quentin Richardson, who is a good athlete and can shoot the long ball.  Surrounding Howard with shooters is vital because he sucks the defense inside, making kicking the ball out for three's very effective.  JJ Redick played very well towards the end of last year, and is a lights out shooter.  Michael Pietrus is a solid role player, but will never be more than that.  He is a good fit for what the Magic want to do, but he is not the type of player that can put this team over the top.  The Magic's only hope for winning a title is if Howard can take a quantum leap in his offensive game.  If he can develop a go-to move that takes him beyond being a simple dunker, he could be the best player in the league.  If he could improve his free throw shooting and stop fouling so much on defense, then the Magic can beat anyone.  But we have been waiting on Howard's offensive game for six years now and it hasn't come.  Ultimately the Magic will be held back by Howard's lack of super friends.

Predicted Record: 55-27
Team MVP: Dwight Howard
Key Player: Jameer Nelson

4. Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose is not ready to be the MVP like many think, but he is a top player in the league.  He controls the pace of the game very well, and can get to the hoop whenever he chooses.  The only thing holding him back is his lack of a jump shot.  If he develops that, he can't be stopped.  The addition of Carlos Boozer is huge because the Bulls' Achilles' heel last year was their ineffectiveness in the half court.  They did not have a polished go-to player at any position last year, and now they can dump it into Boozer and his refined post game and very nice mid-range jumper.  Boozer will be injured with a broken hand to start the year, but once he's back this team will be very tough to beat.  The Bulls look a bit like Jazz East with a great young point guard and Utah defectors Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and of course Boozer.  The Bulls' frontcourt should be a handful with Taj Gibson, who had a very promising rookie year, Boozer, and Joakim Noah, who is not a great player, but with the addition of Boozer, can simply rebound and block shots.  The frontcourt is versatile, young, and athletic.  Luol Deng and Brewer will split duties on the wing where Brewer adds tremendous defense and athleticism.  Korver gives the Bulls a veritable long bomber that they lacked last year.  The Bulls are going to be much better as they have seriously upgraded their talent, but I think they are still a definitive notch below Orlando, Boston, and Miami.

Predicted Record: 51-31
Team MVP: Derrick Rose
Key Player: Luol Deng

5. Milwaukee Bucks

As I look at their roster, I can't believe I'm putting them ahead of the Hawks and Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Josh Smith, but there is just something about this Bucks bunch that I really like.  They are like a football team that doesn't have huge talent but just hits hard and nobody likes to play.  Andrew Bogut suffered maybe the most disgusting moment in sports history last year when his arm turned practically inside out.  But he has had a full off-season and then some to recover; it appears he will be back to full strength sometime in the early season.  Let's hope so, because he was really starting to live up to his number one overall draft pick potential last year when he averaged sixteen points, ten rebounds, and three blocks per game.  In a league that is center-deprived, those are terrific numbers that give the Bucks a matchup advantage most nights.  Brandon Jennings was, at times, one of the best players in the league last year.  At others, he was an inconsistent rookie.  It was a great sign though that he played big in the playoffs.  That's a sign of a player who just has that "it factor" that will make them special.  Another special element of Jennings' game is his court vision, which is on par with that of Steve Nash and LeBron.  He is the reason that mediocre teammates turned into potent scorers last season.  The Bucks also went out and nabbed Corey Maggette who averaged twenty points and five rebounds last year, albeit in Don Nelson's frenzied, chuck-it-up offense.  Still, Maggette is a proven scorer upon whom the Bucks can lean to create points and get his own shot.  That gives them another isolation threat to add to Jennings and John Salmons.  Salmons was a really big re-signing for the Bucks.  He is a slasher and efficient offensive player who averaged nineteen points a game once he joined the Bucks in mid-season last year.  Jennings, Salmons, Maggette, and Bogut give the Bucks an imposing foursome (all of whom will start) that teams will have to deal with.  Drew Gooden was another good signing for the Bucks.  He brings experience, size, and solid production.  He could start alongside Bogut.  Gooden has a solid mid-range game, and had averages of eleven points and eight rebounds per game last year.  Carlos Delfino is a nice player off the bench who brings energy and scoring.  Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a scrapper, a good athlete, loves to rebound, and is slowly improving at the offensive end.  Chris Douglas-Roberts could find a spot in the rotation.  The nice thing for the Bucks is that they didn't think they would be able to re-sign Salmons because of cap constraints, but they not only re-signed him, they also added Maggette and Gooden.  After next year, Michael Redd's gargantuan contract will come off the books, and if they can lure a big time free agent to Milwaukee, they will have the cap space to sign him and have a very nice team waiting.

Predicted Record: 47-35
Team MVP: Brandon Jennings
Key Player: Andrew Bogut

6. Washington Wizards

The Wizards may have one of the most dynamic guard trios in the NBA.  John Wall is better than either of his John Calipari predecessors Tyreke Evans or Derrick Rose.  That is huge praise.  He might not produce like them immediately, but he will be the better player down the road.  Wall is blazing fast, and has better fluidity, ball handling, and court vision than Rose.  Both Rose and Wall are insane athletes, but I think Wall is more natural on the court.  Gilbert Arenas is still an elite scorer, and an even more elite dumbass.  But remember that he missed fifty games last year because of his behavior, not an injury.  At the start of last year Arenas was coming off knee surgery, but through thirty-two games he averaged twenty-three points and seven assists per game.  Throw in Kirk Hinrich, who is a superb defender, good ball handler, and solid offensive option, and the Wiz have a tremendous set of guards.  In the frontcourt, look for JaVale McGee to have a breakout year.  I see Wall and McGee as a lethal alley-oop combo like Chris Paul-to-Tyson Chandler from a few years back.  McGee is maybe the most athletic seven footer in the league (Dwight Howard is just under seven feet).  McGee has the biggest vertical of anyone that size I have ever seen, and he runs incredibly well for a big man.  McGee had highlight after highlight in the summer league and pre-season; look for him to thrive with three great guards opening lanes for him.  Andray Blatche is another interesting big body, who at 6' 11" could form an imposing, huge, and talented frontline with McGee.  Blatche rode the bench for much of last year, but got an opportunity late, and for about the last three months of the season was averaging twenty-one points and seven rebounds a game.  With Blatche lighting up the score board, and McGee's size and athleticism, this is one of the better 4-5 combinations in hoops.  Yi Jianlian is another nimble and talented seven footer that can play the 3, 4, or 5 spots.  With his talent and size I'm surprised he has moved so much, but this guy could be an All Star in the right system.  Al Thornton is a young, athletic swing forward that can play the 3 or 4 spot.  He can score, rebound, and defend, and if he is committed, can be a real impact role player for this team.  Nick Young is a long, athletic, offensive-minded guard with big potential.  This whole Wizards team has a lot of talent, and Young is no different.  I picture him in a Jamal Crawford mold, coming off the bench looking for his shot, and to give his team a lift.  Flip Saunders is a solid coach, and with the Bucks and Hawks likely his competition for this sixth spot out East, he should be able to milk this talented squad into a good position.

Predicted Record: 44-38
Team MVP: John Wall
Key Player: Andray Blatche

7. Atlanta Hawks

This may seem like a precipitous drop for last year's three seed and a team that won fifty games, but to quote Big Tom Callahan, "In auto parts you're either growing or you're dying. There ain't no third direction."  Tommy Boy reference, but it rings true.  The Hawks are largely the same team that has not been able to break through over the past three years, and with an aging leader in Mike Bibby and a soft superstar in Johnson, this team does not have the mental or physical makeup to be an elite team anymore.  Horford has not really improved since his rookie year.  He is good but not great, and that seems to be where he will stay.  Smith is a transcendent athlete that puts up good numbers, but his attitude is awful and he doesn't seem to understand the nuances of the game.  Marvin Williams is a pile of potential that isn't amounting to much more than twelve points per game.  I really like Crawford as a player, but I'm not sure his style is a great fit for a team that already has plenty of players that fancy themselves as scorers.  This team is very talented, no doubt, and if things start well for them, I may be completely wrong in my forecast.  But I think if they face some early adversity, they could struggle all year.  They also have a rookie coach in Larry Drew, uh-oh.

Predicted Record: 42-40
Team MVP: Joe Johnson
Key Player: Al Horford

8. New York Knicks

Yes Big Apple fans, your team is back.  Sort of.  With no real great candidates for the eighth spot out East (76ers, Pacers, Bobcats, Pistons) I will take the team with the best singular player of all those squads.  Amare Stoudemire should elevate to superstar production as the clear and obvious focal point of the Knicks, who also employ offensive maestro Mike D'Antoni as their coach.  I think averages of twenty-seven points and eleven rebounds are completely realistic if Stoudemire is healthy.  He has as much offensive variety, skill, and athleticism as any player in the league.  The trade of David Lee was also a great move for the Knicks.  Lee was overrated and only produced big numbers because he was the best player on a really bad team.  He was a good rebounder and a solid offensive player, but nowhere near the talent of Stoudemire.  So if Lee could average twenty and twelve, imagine the possibilities with Stoudemire.  The Lee trade brought in three talented players that can all fill a role for the Knicks, and depth and talent is just what New York needed.  Anthony Randolph is oozing potential, and at 6' 10" there isn't anything he can't do.  He is a good scorer, scary athlete, and possesses a guard-like skill set.  He's only 21 and hasn't become a star yet, but he could be.  Ronnie Turiaf was another nice pickup.  He is a tall, wide, and live body that rebounds and challenges shots.  Kelenna Azubuike is a veteran slasher, scorer, athlete, and long range shooter that is an ideal fit for what D'Antoni does.  Raymond Felton was a coup signing as well.  He has big potential and may flourish with all these athletic playmakers around him.  Danilo Gallinari has star potential and averaged fifteen points per game last year as a rookie.   He could join Stoudemire as a team star.  Wilson Chandler will round out their rotation as a versatile and extremely athletic swing forward.  This team should score a lot of points and finally has the horses to run D'Antoni's system.

Predicted Record: 41-41
Team MVP: Amare Stoudemire
Key Player: Raymond Felton

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9. New Jersey Nets

Yes, a huge rise for the lowly Nets.  I don't think last year's record was indicative of their talent level.  Devin Harris is an All Star-level player, and Brook Lopez could be a franchise player at center.  Derrick Favors has ability for miles, but likely isn't ready to be a big time scorer as a rookie.  Jordan Farmar will get a chance to log a lot more minutes than he did with the Lakers.  He brings speed and winning experience to a team that needs it.  Terrence Williams is a promising young forward, and Troy Murphy is a serviceable forward/center.  There is a long way still to go for this team, yet their position as ninth says more about the bottom of the East than it does about the Nets' progress.

10. Philadelphia 76ers

Evan Turner reminds me a whole lot of Grant Hill, but people who were born in 1995 can't stop comparing him to Brandon Roy, even though he is a lot more like Hill.  He has great vision, is a decent shooter, good ball handler, nice athlete, and a smart player.  He is good at everything and has room to improve in all areas.  This kid will be an All Star in two or three years.  Turner will be a really nice combination with the ultra-athletic Andre Iguodala.  Those two alone should keep this team in a lot of games.  Thaddeus Young is another really good athlete on the wing, and Lou Williams plus Jrue Holiday makes a talented but raw combo at point guard.  A key will be if Elton Brand can find a fountain of youth.  If Brand stays healthy, this team could push for the eighth spot.

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Larry Brown has got to be itching to ditch this declining team.  Yes they made the postseason last year, but there just isn't much exciting talent here.  Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace are good players, but on a Championship-level squad, either of those guys would be the third or fourth-best players.  DJ Augustin took a huge step back last year doing virtually nothing.  Boris Diaw is a solid but unspectacular veteran forward.

12. Indiana Pacers

Danny Granger is an All Star that absolutely fills up the bucket.  Darren Collison could be a top-ten point guard in this league someday and really played well for New Orleans when Paul was injured last year.  Those two players should be enough to hold off the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Raptors.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers

Oh poor Cleveland.  They are only this high because they have some holdover talent and guys that are used to winning.  Still, they have very little in the cupboard.  Antawn Jamison is a good scorer, and Mo Williams is ever so slightly above average.  JJ Hickson has some real ability, but he is raw.  The rest of the team is composed of role players that are now going to have to be go-to players.  Cleveland just doesn't have the pieces to make any kind of run.

14. Detroit Pistons

They signed Tracy McGrady; that should tell you enough.  Will Bynum, Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince will keep them in some games, but not enough.  Greg Monroe is a very skilled big man, but his body is not NBA ready.  This team will have to do some major restructuring to turn things around.

15. Toronto Raptors

Whoa is this roster terrible.  I almost cried just looking at it.  You know what, let me save my breath.  Look at it yourself and see how many of these guys you've ever even heard of.