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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

September 28, 2010

NFL Week 3 Game Notes

Chiefs over 49ers

Adam: -The pick-your-excuse carousel continues for dumb-founded, dismayed, and generally depressed 49er fans.  It's hard to find any justification for the Niners' Sunday debacle besides, they stink.  The Niners' most horrendous offence to football thus far this year has been their offense.  Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye is entirely uncreative, disorganized, and shows a complete inability to direct the talent his offense posseses.  Alex Smith has shown no ability to persevere, either above his offensive coordinator's ineptitude, or through his own lack of confidence.  He continues to be inaccurate and ineffective, completing a low percentage of passes for small to medium gains, and turns the ball over far too much.  Even the passes he does complete seem to barely find their way to the target and rarely go for long yardage.  Mike Singletary continues to mismanage game situations and doesn't have control over the pulse of his team.  The 49ers commit too many mistakes and general mental gaffes throughout the course of the game; they look ill-prepared and disorganized.  The Niner house is in chaos.
-On the flip side, the Chiefs are showing the 49ers how a rebuilding process is done, by accumulating good coaching (Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel are excellent NFL coordinators) and explosive playmakers.  Plenty of teams with average quarterbacks succeed in the NFL.  The Panthers went to a Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme, the Dolphins are a good team with Chad Henne, Eli Manning beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl, and look at what the Steelers are doing thus far minus Ben Roethlisberger.  The Chiefs have an average signal caller in Matt Cassel, but they have surrounded him with two very good running backs and some talented playmakers in Tony Moeaki and Dexter McCluster.  Dwayne Bowe is a nice possession receiver as well.  On defense, the Chiefs spent high picks in consecutive drafts to build their defensive line, and it has paid off.  The Chiefs have allowed 14, 17, and 10 points through three games, respectively.  They are winning the field position game with Javier Arenas and McCluster, playing attacking defense, and are very well-coached.
-Update: Raye gets the axe and the writing is on the wall for virtually everyone on the 49ers' organization besides Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis.  Raye was terrible, disorganized, and simply didn't challenge opposing defenses.  Now he is gone, but who knows what promoted QB coach Mike Johnson will do?

Eric: -The Chiefs keep winning.  Those rookies continue their great play and Matt Cassel has his best game of the season so far.
-The 49ers keep losing.  Offensive coordinator Raye has been fired with 49er brass looking for somewhere to point the finger after a 0-3 start.  This is the wrong move.  Smith has had a different offensive coordinator every year he's been in the league; this is the biggest reason why he has struggled adjusting to the NFL.  This season was the first that he's had the same coordinator as the previous season, and now the 49ers have let him go after just three games.  Consistency is key for a guy like Smith, and he has not gotten it with this organization.

Ravens over Browns

A: -Probably closer than the Ravens would have liked, but coming off games against the Jets and Bengals, I'm sure Baltimore is happy to have survived with a win.  Anquan Boldin looks like a huge addition going for 140 yards and three scores.
-The Browns are not a good football team but competed nicely in this game.  Seneca Wallace is average; he doesn't offer much down the field though.

E: -Since drafting Joe Flacco, every year the Ravens' defense has taken a slight step back while the offense has taken a slight step forward.  This season was supposed to be the coming out party for the offense with some big offseason moves, namely acquiring Boldin from Arizona.  We got the first taste of explosiveness this week with Boldin's three touchdowns marking the first time the Ravens have scored more than ten points in a game this season.
-The Ravens' defense is going to be ticked off after giving up 144 yards rushing to Peyton Hillis.  Watch out Pittsburgh, you're up next.

Titans over Giants

A: -Chris Johnson is huge for the Titans.  Vince Young was pedestrian but didn't turn the ball over.
-Eli Manning threw for a ton of yards but didn't get points.  The Giants are in trouble, losing by an average of twenty-five points over the past two weeks.

E: -Big Blue looked really ugly in this one.  There were a lot of bonehead plays plus five personal foul penalties.  The Giants had a hot start last year but then faded down the stretch.  As the season went on, you could tell the team had given up and were just playing for paychecks.  That looked like what happened here.  Tennessee went ahead and the Giants just said, "Screw it."
-The Titans get a good bounce back after playing terribly at home against the Steelers a week ago.

Steelers over Buccaneers

A: -The 3-0 start for the Steelers is a testament to Mike Tomlin and the general stability of the Steelers organization.  They rolled the Bucs with Warren Moon's older brother, Charlie Batch, at the helm.  That is amazing.  Pittsburgh's defense appears to be special, but I haven't gotten to watch them for any extended time to verify that sentiment.
-The Bucs are a building team, but 2-1 is a really nice start for them.  This team is clearly headed in the right direction; I like Josh Freeman as a quarterback.

E: -The Buccaneers were recipients of a favorable schedule out of the gate, and they maximized their potential going 2-0.  The Steelers were their first true test and they couldn't stand up to the challenge.  We knew the Bucs weren't going to be very good going into the season, and here they get stomped by a nasty Pittsburgh defense.
-Charlie Batch, you can't stop him; you can only hope to contain him.

Vikings over Lions

A: -The Lions had some opportunities in this game, got some bad calls, but were ultimately the inferior team at the Metrodome Sunday.  The Lions' offense just doesn't quite have the continuity or the quarterback to put points on the board consistently.  Even at 0-3, the Lions have shown some talent, now they just need some time.
-Brett Favre committed a bunch of turnovers again and wasn't all that impressive throwing the ball.  Percy Harvin made some nice plays and then pretended to be injured like six times.  Adrian Peterson was an absolute beast as usual; he was the difference in the game.

E: -Where has Jerad Allen been?  He has not been getting consistent pressure and has only one sack to his name, and even that came on a play where Henne was trying to scramble but ran into Allen a yard behind the line of scrimmage.  He has gone up against some good offensive tackles in Jermon Bushrod and Jake Long, but he couldn't even make life tough on Shaun Hill.  (Maybe he's like Samson without his mullet.  Yeah, we'll go with that.)
-A win's a win, but this one wasn't pretty for the Vikings.  There were a lot of penalties against Minnesota, and if Hill hadn't thrown interceptions in the end zone on two late drives, the Vikings could very well be 0-3.

Falcons over Saints

A: -A huge win for Atlanta knocks some of the championship luster off the Saints.  Corollary: A victory against the defending champs always gives a team a huge confidence boost.
-Matt Ryan was terrific; accurate, productive, efficient, and mistake-free.  Michael Turner looks like he has regained his 2008 form if he can just stay healthy.  Tony Gonzalez is an absolutely amazing fourteen year vet with eight grabs and 110 yards and a score.
-For the Saints, it may be good to get a loss.  It will be a good chance for them to see what they are doing wrong and to have some motivation to attack the business of winning football again.  I think the Saints are going to be a Super Bowl contender this year with this loss registering as nothing more than a wakeup call.
-We may be in for a season-long race between Atlanta and New Orleans.

E: -Once a game gets into overtime, both teams are equal; there are no surprises.  That said, Garrett Hartley missing from twenty-nine yards out was surprising.  This was a fun game and proves that the NFC South crown is up for grabs.

Patriots over Bills

A: -I suppose the Bills are probably happy to have been competitive in a game, but that's all they can really take from another loss to the Pats.  The Patriots were good in the passing game but have to be concerned with how well the Bills ran the ball against them.  New England is 2-1 so they are doing fine, but I see holes on this team.

E: -Let's hear it for the Harvard man.  Ryan Fitzpatrick finally makes the Bills competitive in the most unlikely of places, playing at Foxboro Stadium.  This is also the game where CJ Spiller gets his first two NFL touchdowns, one coming on a 95-yard kickoff return.
-This game goes back to the Patriots not being what they once were.  Sure they pulled out the win, but it should not have been this close against perennial AFC East bottom feeder Buffalo.

Bengals over Panthers

A: -Jimmy Clausen's debut is decent but nothing more.  We can't expect a rookie to come in a light the world on fire, but I think Clausen will make strides this year.
-The Bengals have to be wondering what happened to Carson Palmer.  He is less accurate and more hesitant than he ever was before his knee injury.  The Bengals won't go much further than Wild Card Weekend if they can't get more explosive plays from their offense.

E: -Clausen had an unspectacular debut for the Panthers, and Palmer had a similarly unspectacular, yet winning, performance for the Bengals.  A former fixture at the Pro Bowl, Palmer has really fallen, unable to climb back up to that level after blowing out his knee in the 2005 playoffs and suffering elbow injuries in '08 and '09.

Cowboys over Texans

A: -Dallas' big win comes against a good team on the road.  Tony Romo was excellent and the Boys' offense finally capitalized on all their talent.  1-2 is a lot better than 0-3, and the Cowboys can go about their business more calmly.  Dallas gains confidence while the Texans can be happy at 2-1 after their tough opening games facing the Colts, Redskins, and Cowboys.

E: -In the state of Texas, the Texans are looked at as the little brother to the Cowboys.  Coming into this game after two big wins and with Dallas reeling from a 0-2 start, this was the perfect time for Houston to flex their muscles and show the world they're for real.  However, it was not meant to be.  The Cowboys were not going to go winless for very long, and the Texans just ended up on the wrong end of that equation.
-We have a Roy Williams sighting.  Wow.

Rams over Redskins

A: -Kind of inexplicable, the Redskins, especially under Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan, should be much further ahead of a team without much talent on the roster and starting a rookie quarterback.  Most amazing of all is that the Rams did much of this while their best player, Steven Jackson, was on the bench.  This good win for the Rams gets them half-way to last year's win total.

E: -Sam Bradford has not had an overpowering start, but has lived up to expectations through three games.  He led the Rams to a nice win after their #1 offensive weapon, Jackson, went down early.

Eagles over Jaguars

A: -The Jags are a bad team, but Michael Vick's performance was still awfully impressive.  If he can play this way, the Eagles can compete for this division.  Vick accounts for 291 passing yards, four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and thirty yards on the ground.  Most important, Vick is getting the ball downfield to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.  Vick also looks more patient, accurate, and poised as a passer than I have ever seen him, although we are looking at a small sample size.  The Eagles are a very dangerous team.

E: -The Michael Vick Experience is back and better than ever.  Vick has looked comfortable in the pocket early on, which was not often the case back in his Atlanta days.
-Recently released Bills quarterback Trent Edwards was picked up by Jacksonville today.  David Garrard needs to perform if the Jaguars want to win some games.  Hopefully this is motivation.

Seahawks over Chargers

A: -San Diego is firmly committed to starting seasons like a really bad team.  Seattle is a surprising 2-1.  San Diego lost three fumbles and was twice intercepted by rookie safety Earl Thomas.
-Who in the hell is gonna win the the NFC West?

E: -In a game divided into three phases, the Seahawks beat the Chargers by winning the most overlooked phase, special teams.  Offseason addition Leon Washington ran back two kickoffs for touchdowns, one coming on the ensuing kick after the Chargers scored a late touchdown and converted on a two-point attempt to tie the game.  San Diego could not muster a comeback after that.

Cardinals over Raiders

A: -Somebody had to win.  Derek Anderson was bad again, but the Cards figure a way to beat the lowly Raiders.  Bruce Gradkowski does seem to move the offense better than Jason Campbell.
-Darren McFadden has 345 yards through three games, which I love.  I thought this guy had so much talent coming out of school and I'm glad he is having some success.

E: -Gradkowski gives the Raiders something they lack and something they weren't getting from Campbell, energy.  And had Sebastian Janikowski hit on a potential go-ahead field goal as time expired, he would've given them a win too.
-McFadden finally looks healthy and is showing why Al Davis picked him fourth overall.

Colts over Broncos

A: -The Colts get a win in a game that could have gone wrong for them.  They had injuries and Kyle Orton was great, throwing for nearly 500 yards.  Still, the Colts found a way to take advantage of opportunities where the Broncos didn't.
-Brandon Lloyd looked really good with 170 receiving yards.

E: -I was surprised—after the death of teammate earlier in the week, backup wideout Kenny McKinley—that the Broncos kept this game as close as they did.
-Ever heard of this guy, Peyton Manning? Yeah, he's pretty good.

Jets over Dolphins

A: -Mark Sanchez has thrown six touchdowns and no picks in his last two games.  Henne and Brandon Marshall finally got on the same page and really went off, but it was ultimately not enough.  I think the Jets, Pats, and Dolphins are all about on the same level competing in the AFC East.

E: -This was a fun, competitive game that went against character as two young quarterbacks put up a lot of points against two stellar defenses.
-LaDanian Tomlinson describes his last few years in San Diego as going poorly not so much because of his age, but because he wasn't completely healthy, and by the time he was all healed up, the Chargers had transformed themselves into a passing team.  Tomlinson looks rejuvenated playing for New York.

Bears over Packers

A: -The Packers' offense was very efficient but ultimately couldn't capitalize enough by putting the ball in the end zone.  It could be that the complete lack of a running game takes a bit of the bite away from the Packers' attack.  Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn are not going to get it done all season, no matter how good Aaron Rodgers is.
-The Bears have to be thrilled starting 3-0 and are now the NFC's last unbeaten team.  Jay Cutler has been very good, although he still makes some bonehead throws.  The offensive line for the Bears is below average, but Cutler has a lightning quick release and a series of veritable weapons in Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, Greg Olsen, Matt Forte, and Earl Bennett.  Mike Martz's system is producing for the Bears, and with a healthy and bolstered front seven, the Bears have a lot of good things going for them.

E: -The Bears did show up to play, but the Packers beat themselves more than anything in this game.  Setting a new team record with eighteen penalties, the Packers shot themselves in the foot over and over.  On the Bears' late drives, there were multiple times where the Packers caused a turnover only for it to be wiped out by penalty.
-Like Seattle, the Bears' domination on special teams helped win the game for them.  The Bears blocked a field goal, had numerous, dazzling kick returns setting up favorable field position, and even ran back a punt for a touchdown.

September 26, 2010

Sunday Slobber Knockers

Adam: How many wins does Michael Vick lead the Eagles to?  Can he make the Pro Bowl?

Eric: I think Vick could get the Eagles an extra 1-2 wins that they might not have gotten with Kevin Kolb.  He also could potentially lose them a few games too.  So I say they still finish around .500: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, somewhere in there.  A Pro Bowl in certainly within reach if Vick remains the starter.  I think the fans are ready to forgive the dog fighting if he can keep making electrifying plays with his legs; that's what he would be rewarded for if he makes the Pro Bowl.

A: Bruce Gradkowski starts for Oakland.  What are your thoughts on how it will go and overall on the move to bench Jason Campbell?

E: In the long run, Campbell should be the starting quarterback for Oakland.  That said, I really liked what Gradkowski was doing for them at the end of last season: nothing flashy, just winning games.  Like I said in my review of Week 2, I was a little surprised how easily they gave the starting job to Campbell when he came over.  Gradkowski won't be any worse than Campbell was, but he doesn't have as much upside either.

A: Who is the best team in the AFC East?

E: The Dolphins are 2-0 and are tough to play against, but the class of the AFC East still consists of the Pats and Jets, both at 1-1. If Mark Sanchez can continue to make strides as a starter, I give the edge to New York.

A: How many wins do you expect out of each team in the NFC West by the end of the year?

E:
49ers: 9-7
Seahawks: 6-10
Cardinals: 6-10
Rams: 3-13

A: What record will the Vikings and Cowboys have at the end of the year?

E:
Vikings: 8-8
Cowboys: 10-6

What are your thoughts on the AFC East?

A: I think at this point in Sanchez's career, he is somewhere between his two performances this season.  He's not as bad as he showed in Week One, but he can't consistently perform like he did in Week Two.  I also think that this whole bravado the Jets pride themselves on is going to bite them. Rex Ryan is starting to see that with the Braylon Edwards DUI, the Revis holdout, and the Santonio Holmes suspension.  The thing is, over this past decade, the most talented team has not won the Super Bowl plenty of times ('07 Pats, the Cowboys when they went 13-3, the Chargers every year).  Winning in this league is just as much about cohesiveness as it is about talent.  Offensive and defensive schemes are more complicated than ever, and 53 men have to be on the same page.  If you have a locker room full of egos and distractions, it's hard to make your team have that "one heartbeat" approach you need to have.  I think the Jets need to stop worrying about talking to everyone else and just focus on maximizing their talent.

I think the Dolphins will be in close games all year no matter who they play.  Chad Henne hasn't yet taken a big step where he can lead the offense to 25-30 points, and they are still very much a power running team.  The defense is strong but and the offense is methodical, which can be a successful formula, but you also lose a lot of close games in this league and it takes some measure of luck to win this way. If the Dolphins want to be a playoff team, they are going to have to light up the scoreboard a bit more, and they have the potential to do so with Brandon Marshall.

The Patriots over the past three years have lost some head-scratching games.  You still want to think, "Hey, this is the Patriots. They don't lose close games and they don't lose to teams they should beat."  But I think the reality is that they have come back to the pack, and while they are a playoff-level team, they are not a surefire championship contender.  They are on the same level with about six other AFC teams.  They don't have the defense that confuses and frustrates opponents, and their running game is really absent.  Kevin Faulk is gone for the year, and Laurence Maroney just got traded, so who do they really have?  BenJarvus Green-Ellis?  Fred Taylor?  They simply don't have a feature back, and they don't run the ball enough for their offensive line to establish a rhythm.  As a result, they don't hold the ball long enough, and the defense just can't hold up as it had during their Super Bowl run.  Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss are still great, but all three of those guys are aging, and Welker is only nine months removed from major knee surgery.  Aaron Hernandez (rookie tight end out of Florida) is a really exciting find for the Pats; he has made some really explosive plays across the middle.

The Bills are really in trouble.  Chan Gailey is not the right guy for an all-out house cleaning/rebuilding process.  You need a young innovative guy with energy to totally remake a team.  They need to overhaul the roster and change the culture in Buffalo.  The Bills have no quarterback worthy of starting in this league, they might have one starting quality wide receiver, they have a clusterfuck at running back, and they can't block well enough for any of those guys to go off.  I think CJ Spiller is a nice weapon, but he is the type of guy that could put a talented offense looking for one more playmaker over the top. He is not a bell cow, carry-the-offense-type guy.  Defensively, the Bills have a talented secondary, but the front seven is underwhelming.  They need more than a good draft or two; they need 3-4 good free agent signings and 2-3 drafts to turn up the talent and fill needs.  It's going to be a long time before this team is good again.

Rice of Passage

September 24, 2010

Week 3 Pick-Down

MatchupAdam's Pick Eric's Pick
49ers at Chiefs 
49ers
49ers
Browns at Ravens
Ravens
Ravens
Titans at Giants
Giants
Titans
Steelers at Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Steelers
Lions at Vikings
Vikings
Vikings
Falcons at Saints
Saints
Falcons
Bills at Patriots
Patriots
Patriots
Bengals at Panthers
Bengals
Bengals
Cowboys at Texans
Texans
Cowboys
Redskins at Rams
Redskins
Redskins
Eagles at Jaguars
Eagles
Eagles
Chargers at Seahawks
Chargers
Chargers
Raiders at Cardinals
Raiders
Raiders
Colts at Broncos
Colts
Colts
Jets at Dolphins
Dolphins
Dolphins
Packers at Bears
Packers
Packers



Adam
Eric
Week 2 Record
9-7
9-7
Season Standings
16-16
16-16

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Despite the loss Monday, the 49ers dominated the yardage battle against the Saints, and Alex Smith should have gained confidence from his terrific second half.  The 49ers could easily have put up thirty points if not for all their silly mistakes.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-0 and will be eager to make that 3-0 as they come home to Arrowhead.  The 49ers have been atrocious on special teams, where the Chiefs excel, and the Chiefs' defense is playing much better this year, flying around and playing freely.  On the flipside, the 49ers' defense played great against Drew Brees and they stop the run as well as any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs' strength is running the ball as their passing game has been incredibly anemic.  I think San Fran knows this is a must-win against a team over which they have the talent advantage.  Look for the 49ers to take care of the ball, stuff the run, and come after Matt Cassel.
Prediction: 49ers 23 – Chiefs 16

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finally get a break after brawling with the Jets and Bengals through two weeks.  Whether the Browns go with Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace is irrelevant because neither will be able to move the ball against this defense.  I think Joe Flacco will have a bounce back performance.
Prediction: Ravens 27 – Browns 9

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
Both teams are coming off head-scratching displays and will be looking to rebound.  I think the Giants' defense is better than they showed last week against Indy, but they are by no means an elite unit anymore.  Vince Young got yanked last week but accepted responsibility for his mistakes and will be back in the starting role this week.  Ultimately, these teams are close.  The Titans can run all day, but Eli Manning and company can really throw the football.  We have seen the home teams be dominant so far this year, so gimme the Giants.
Prediction: Giants 24 – Titans 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Charlie Batch looks to be the starter going in to surprising Tampa.  The Steelers have scored thirty-four points through two games, and needed overtime to get to fifteen against the Falcons.  Batch is not even an NFL-level QB anymore.  Pittsburgh's defense has been incredible, but I just have the feeling that the Steelers can't go 3-0 without their franchise quarterback.  In addition, the Bucs have an impressive, young, and deep defensive line to go along with some playmakers in the secondary.  Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm and has been very smart with his decision-making.  I think the Bucs will make a few big plays down the field, and playing at home, the crowd will be rocking with the prospect of a 3-0 start.
Prediction: Bucs 17 – Steelers 13

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
If the Lions had Matthew Stafford, I would be real tempted to pick them.  Brett Favre has been bad, looking immobile and out of rhythm.  Adrian Peterson has been a horse, but I'm wondering how long until he sustains an injury with his increased workload this year.  The Vikes are so desperate at wideout they are looking to add Vincent Jackson, which would likely cost them two high draft choices.  As a Vikings hater, I would love for them to lose more draft picks to add a receiver, especially because Favre won't even be there much longer to throw him the ball.  The Vikings have to be rethinking their choice to pass over Jimmy Clausen in the draft.  Jahvid Best has been dynamic for the Lions.  The Vikings certainly can't cover Calvin Johnson, but the Lions certainly can't block the Vikings' defensive line.  I think the Lions' defense will give Favre some problems, but ultimately the Vikings' defense will be more dominant.
Prediction: Vikings 20 – Lions 13

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
These two teams will be battling for this division all year, so this is a huge early season matchup.  Brees hasn't gone off yet; he has played well, but not as well as he can.  I think the Saints received a scare on Monday night and will be looking to come home and have a big-time performance.  The Falcons have weapons, but have been two entirely different teams at home and on the road.  They will be on the road this week, and that is enough for me to pick the Saints.
Prediction: Saints 31 – Falcons 21

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
I think the Bills will get blown out again, especially with the Pats coming off a loss.  The Bills' one saving grace is that the Pats don't have much of a pass rush, but even so, Trent Edwards is not a good passer.  The Pats will light up the score board against this defense.
Prediction: Patriots 28 – Bills 10

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Jimmy Clausen will get his first NFL start; unfortunately it comes against the bruising Bengals.  I love Clausen, but he's not ready to beat a playoff-caliber team.  The Panthers will run the ball early and often to help Clausen, but I think Carson Palmer and this offense will finally get off the ground.
Prediction: Bengals 24 – Panthers 20

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
The Texans would love to send their Texas brethren to a disastrous 0-3 start.  And I think they will.  The Cowboys' defense has been their strength thus far, but their pass defense has been a little shaky, and that is not a good sign with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson on the docket.  Arian Foster is a bell cow-type back, and this offense for the Texans has special potential.  Not to mention, the Cowboys biggest weakness is their offensive line and Mario Williams is one of the league's premier pass rushers.  The Texans are hungry to be an elite team.  How impressive would it be for Houston to beat Indy, at the Redskins, and the Cowboys in their first three games?  I think that is a question we will be answering after Sunday.
Prediction: Texans 27 – Cowboys 17

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams
The Redskins are coming off a very tough loss and have to be kicking themselves because the Rams will be an easy game that could have sent them to 3-0.  Either way, the 'Skins will punish the Rams' offense and should be able to throw all day on the weak Rams secondary.
Prediction: Redskins 24 – Rams 10

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Starting Michael Vick is the right move.  He is so tough to prepare for and he seems to have really turned a corner with his maturity and mindset.  He has stayed in the pocket well in the past game and-a-half; running is his last resort.  The Jags are an undermanned squad.  The Eagles are too explosive.
Prediction: Eagles 27 – Jaguars 16

San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahwaks
Seattle plays much better at home, and the Chargers played horribly at Kansas City in Week One.  Still, I think San Diego has too much talent for Seattle.
Prediction: Chargers 27 – Seattle 21

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
One of these teams will get above .500 this week, and it may be the only time all year that either team sniffs a winning record.  Derek Anderson is awful.  I think Jason Campbell is a bit like Alex Smith.  He has talent, but has had so little consistency in coaching and weapons.  At some point he has to produce.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Bruce Gradkowski come in, who is a lot like Jeff Garcia.  Both Raiders QBs are better than Anderson, and Darren McFadden may be breaking out as a runner.  Gimme the Raiders by a whisker.
Prediction: Raiders 17 – Cardinals 16

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
The Colts bounced back from their Week One loss to the Texans looking like the best team in football against the Giants.  Peyton Manning is the best player in the league and is at the height of his powers.  The Colts will get up early, and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will come after Kyle Orton all game.  The Broncos just cannot score with Indy.
Prediction: Colts 30 – Broncos 17

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Miami has a chance to really make a statement if they could win this game.  That would mean victories against the Bills, Vikings, and Jets: two division wins and one nice road victory against the fighting Favres.  I think the Dolphins will beat on Mark Sanchez and can stop the run.  Chad Henne hasn't had a big time performance yet, but I think he and Brandon Marshall are due, especially with Darelle Revis likely out.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 – Jets 20

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
It doesn't get any better than these two teams on Monday night.  Jay Cutler has been very good thus far, but Aaron Rodgers is the better player in just about every way.  The Bears' front seven is imposing with Julius Peppers, Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher.  The Pack's defense has been very good as well, and both the Bears and Packers have below average offensive lines.  I think the difference is that the Packers' offensive line is healthier and just a notch better than the Bears', and the Pack has more weapons on offense.  Also, Green Bay's secondary is more talented than the Chicago's.  I think all these elements add up to Rodgers outplaying Cutler in a competitive and fun game.
Prediction: Packers 27 – Bears 24

September 21, 2010

NFL Week 2 Game Notes

Bengals over Ravens 

Adam: -This game was just as it should have been.  The Ravens have played backyard brawls in back-to-back weeks and may be a little worn out heading forward.  All in all, both clubs can be satisfied going .500 through two tough games.  These teams will be competing for a playoff spot all year.

Eric: -Two teams flexed their defensive muscle in this one as just one touchdown and then six field goals constituted all of the scoring.
-Joe Flacco had a stinker of a game with four interceptions.  That would account for the winning margin—turnovers—because Carson Palmer threw no interceptions for the Bengals.

Dolphins over Vikings

A: -The Dolphins are feeling good.  They're 2-0 with two road wins and having scored just 14 and 15 points in their first two games, respectively.
-Brett Favre was terrible throwing three picks and losing a fumble for a touchdown.   Adrian Peterson was huge, but the Vikings don't have a go-to receiver.

E: -The Vikings had multiple opportunities to put points on the board where they didn't capitalize.  I'm looking at Favre's three interceptions, two of which came with the Vikings in the red zone, and Adrian Peterson getting stood up at the goal line on four straight runs.
-The Dolphins are a scrappy bunch and have the ability to get it done when the game's on the line.  I name check Karlos Dansby here.
-The other point I'll make is that Chad Henne doesn't have nearly as much confidence with his other receivers as he does with Brandon Marshall.

Bears over Cowboys

A: -The Bears looked awful and won last week.  This week was much better against a much more impressive opponent.  The biggest thing here was that Jay Cutler completed a high number of passes with three scores and no turnovers.  Chester Taylor has some key plays and Johnny Knox and Devin Hester looked like NFL-caliber wideouts.  The Bears' offensive line is worrisome though.
-For the Cowboys, going 0-2 is disastrous in the NFC East and they have to find a way to create a pocket for Tony Romo.

E: -Cutler has thrown together a very nice stat line so far under the Mike Martz regime.  When Martz comes in and says, "I want to throw the ball fifty times a game," Cutler says, "I'm all for it."  The re-emergence of Matt Forte has been something to watch too.
-The media ordains the Cowboys "paper champions" every year, and every year they find a way to muck that up.  It seems like they've found the formula earlier than normal this season.  It's only been two games though.  I'm not too worried that they can turn it around.

Eagles over Lions

A: -The Eagles get a win and Michael Vick passes the ball extremely well, also running for forty yards.  DeSean Jackson goes off and LeSean McCoy finally impresses with a 120-yard, 3-touchdown outburst on the ground.
-The Lions impressed by scoring 32 points with backup Shaun Hill, and Jahvid Best accumulates 232 total yards and 3 touchdowns, hello fantasy football.  Brandon Pettigrew also goes over a hundred yards receiving.  I know the Lions are 0-2, but things are much better than they seem. This team is a year away anyway, yet they have talent to compete now.

E: -Vick is ready to be a starter again in this league.  Even with Andy Reid's announcement that Vick will be the starter, I say the Eagles are a bad fit for him just because of the fact that they gave up Donovan McNabb so they could have Kevin Kolb be their guy.  Vick's services will surely be looked upon favorably elsewhere.

Falcons over Cardinals

A: -It's a different scene this year with no Kurt Warner; the Cards almost lost to the Rams and got destroyed by the Falcons.
-For the Falcons, it's nice to see the offense get rolling.  Also, the Falcons have to be happy only allowing twenty-two total points in their first two games.

E: -Like I said last week, Arizona is a team in flux, and they will have this type of game every so often, much more often than Cardinal fans are willing to admit.
-I think the Falcons showed in this game that they can be a serious threat to the Saints in the NFC South.  And what do you know; these two teams play each other next week.  Tune in!

Chiefs over Browns

A: -It's not like the Chiefs have bowled us over, and this week they only beat the Browns, but 2-0 is the same no matter who you beat in this league.  Chiefs rookies come up big again as Tony Moeaki snatches five balls and Javier Arenas/Dexter McCluster are explosive in the return game.  Eric Berry tallies seven tackles.  Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are a scary duo.  Matt Cassel has to be better.

E: -Here's a surprising 2-0 team: the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a young team in the right direction that has already beaten the de facto division champ, the Chargers.  I am still looking for more consistent play out of Cassel.
-The Browns suck.

Packers over Bills

A: -This one's as one sided as it gets.  Aaron Rodgers looked good but not as good as he can be, Jermichael Finley was a beast again, and the Pack schemed their way around the absence of Ryan Grant.  Clay Matthews is an absolute superstar, and rookie Morgan Burnett made a really nice play on his interception.
-The Bills are terrible; they can't go down the field whatsoever and their offensive line is embarrassing.

E: -The only thing that stunned me about this game was that the Packers didn't score seventy.  Buffalo's that bad.  Brandon Jackson still needs work.

Buccaneers over Panthers

A: -I know it's the Panthers and Browns, but who would have thought the Bucs would go 2-0 to open the year?  Josh Freeman looks sharp and the Bucs appear to have some nice young talent at wideout.
-The Panthers may struggle to score all year.

E: -Tampa Bay has found something in Freeman.  This is another young, surprising team at 2-0, but I think they have reason to be optimistic.  Freeman has a nice receiving corps headlined by rookie Mike Williams.

Steelers over Titans

A: -Pittsburgh just wins, running their record to 2-0 without Big Ben Roethlisberger.  Their defense has allowed twenty points through two games and held Chris Johnson to 34 rushing yards this week.
-Vince Young gets pulled for being ineffective, but I don't see that developing into much of a story.  He'll be back.

E: -Even with Charlie Batch taking the reins, superb defense racked up another win for the Roethlisberger-less Steelers.  Pittsburgh held Johnson to under forty yards rushing and baited the Titans into seven turnovers.  No team will ever win a game if it commits seven turnovers.

Raiders over Rams

A: -The Raiders will be happy to be at .500, and at least the Rams have been competitive the past two weeks.  Sam Bradford played well for a rookie QB.
-Darren McFadden has his signature performance as a pro going for 145 yards on the ground.  Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey have nice days for Oakland.

E: -This was an ugly game.  Jason Campbell is still not looking like the quarterback we thought he could be as a first-round pick coming out of Auburn.
-Bruce Gradkowski had to come in in this game to pull out a win against a sub-par Rams team.  When Gradkowski started for Oakland last year, he gave them a real jolt and they got on a roll late in the season.  I was somewhat surprised that they were so eager to hand over the keys to Campbell when he came over from Washington.

Broncos over Seahawks

A: -Seattle shows what I believe to be their true colors by getting stomped in Denver.  Kyle Orton is very efficient as usual; Matt Hasselbeck turns the ball over a bunch.  Demaryius Thomas has a breakout performance.

E: -I guess the hot start I predicted for Seattle last week only lasted one game.  Denver looked confident at home and the Seahawks looked ugly on the road.  Seattle couldn't make up any ground after committing multiple turnovers early and falling behind.

Texans over Redskins

A: -Matt Schaub and Donovan McNabb are unconsciousboth pass for over 400 yardsin a matchup of much improved teams.  Andre Johnson is a beast and the Texans make a great rally to force overtime.  Arian Foster doesn't give huge production but carries the ball a bunch and is solid.  The Texans ultimately get a huge win on the road and have a momentum-building 2-0 start.

E: -This was a tremendous game with the Redskins eking out a lead, the Texans coming back to tie and send the game into overtime, and eventually winning it off a kick from Neil Rackers.  Rack 'em up; the Texans are 2-0.

Chargers over Jaguars

A: -The Chargers rebound nicely with an easy week.  Phillip Rivers is up and down but ultimately is productive enough to win.
-The Jags are in the race for worst start to the season.

E: -I was expecting this kind of performance out of the Bolts last week.  Oh well.  They still have plenty of time to mop up the rest of the AFC West.

Jets over Patriots

A: -Tom Brady played OK but turns the ball over three times.  Randy Moss beat Darelle Revis on a nice play.  Aaron Hernandez has been a revelation for the Patriots.
-The story is Mark Sanchez throwing for three scores with no picks and LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene piling up the rushing yards.  If Sanchez is that efficient for the rest of this year, the Jets will be very good.  Dustin Keller has a big game as well.
-The Dolphins can really put themselves in a great position if they can beat the Jets next week.

E: -It was a tale of two halves for Brady and the Patriots' offense as they were unable to generate any ball movement in the second half.  In Brady's own words, "We sucked."
-The Jets played a different style of defense in the second half after Revis went down.  With Revis out there, the Jets blitzed a lot more, confident in their cornerbacks' one-on-one matchups.  Without Revis, they played more zone coverage and were less aggressive with the blitz.  That change threw off Brady's rhythm.
-Sanchez looked much more confident than he did a week ago.

Colts over Giants

A: -Peyton Manning is absolutely ridiculous.  Through two weeks, he's averaging 345 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and is completing over seventy percent of his passes.

E: -The Giants had no answer for Indy's premier pass-rushing duo, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.  With those two creating so much havoc for Eli Manning, the defensive backs only had to play ten yards off the line of scrimmage.  Any deep route ran by the wideouts, Manning wouldn't have time to get them the ball.

Saints over 49ers

A: -Don't ask.

E: -San Francisco's defense did a great job holding the Saints to twenty-five points, but they don't have enough offense yet, not with Alex Smith leading the charge.