The Mellow Sounds of the NBA Offseason

While this NBA offseason has been anything but peaceful and relaxing, there is still something 'Melo about it.  That would be the fact that Carmelo Anthony is going to leave Denver one way or another.  It's possible that the Nuggets may try to keep their current roster intact for one more title run, but they risk letting Anthony walk in free agency the following summer and receive nothing in return.

On the Move

More likely is that the Nuggets will see this dilemma as an opportunity to start from scratch.  No NBA fan wants to hear that about their team, but the franchises that realize when it is time to start over are the ones that spend the least amount of time picking in the lottery.  Every team goes through transitions, and the best way to ease through them is to maximize your assets.

Trading Anthony could net some very nice players/draft picks in return, and if he is certain to defect in a year, the Nuggets may as well leverage his worth into future building blocks for their franchise.  They do not currently have the pieces on their roster to defeat the Lakers, Heat, Magic, or Celtics, so they may as well implode the roster.

Dealing Anthony leaves the question of what to do with Chauncey Billups who would likely not want to participate in a rebuilding process at this stage in his career.  Billups could also be trade bait, and while he would not fetch the same return as Anthony, teams are always looking for a good point guard and the Nuggets could obtain solid players in exchange for the savvy veteran.

Though I wouldn't be entirely surprised if teams like the Mavericks, Lakers, Trailblazers, or Bulls at least inquire about Anthony, the following teams are rumored to be preferred destinations: the Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Clippers, Rockets, and Magic.  Let's take a look how Anthony could possibly land in these spots.

New Jersey Nets: With young assets to deal in return and likely another high draft choice, the Nets could make an enticing offer for Anthony.  (The only issue is that once they have Carmelo they will win many more games, thus devaluing the draft picks they could send to Denver.)  Perhaps Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, and two first round picks could pry Anthony loose.  That would leave the Nuggets with a very talented young point guard, a nice role player in Williams, and some picks to play with.  The Nuggets could also then deal Billups for a position of need.  The Nets meanwhile would have an imposing frontcourt of Carmelo, third overall pick Derrick Favors, and rising star Brook Lopez.

New York Knicks: This seems to be the trendy guess of where Anthony will land, but I'm not sure the Knicks have enough on their end to complete a trade.  Maybe a package of Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelena Azubuike could be enough to land Anthony, but the Nuggets would have to be desperate to move him for this to work.  These are promising players from the Knicks, but none of them are surefire difference makers.  The Knicks meanwhile would get the superstar tandem they have been looking for with Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but they would have no supporting cast and no defense.  It would be a start though for hungry Knick fans, and perhaps they could add a third star next offseason.

Golden State Warriors: This team has a lot of individual pieces.  Monta Ellis is a prolific scorer, averaging over 25 points per game last year.  A package of Ellis and sixth pick Ekpe Udoh might be enough for the Nuggets to pull the trigger on an Anthony deal.  That would leave the Warriors with Stephen Curry, Anthony, and David Lee.  That lineup doesn't have the makes of a title contender, but it could easily be a playoff team with a ton of upside.  The Nuggets meanwhile would get a young slasher in Ellis and a great athlete with upside in Udoh.

Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon has been proving his value in the FIBA Championships and his stock is rising.  Gordon alone would likely not be enough to land Anthony, but he would be the central piece in any deal.  Perhaps Chris Kaman and Gordon would do the trick, but the Clippers would be giving away a lot of production.  Still, if you can land a true superstar you should probably do it.  The Nuggets might like this deal because it could keep them competitive with their current roster.  Billups could stay and form a nice backcourt with Gordon, while Kaman would be a very nice inside presence.

Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is not trade bait because no team would take a chance on his injury-plagued body.  Kevin Martin may be the most tradable though, capable of scoring 20 per game in an efficient manner.  Perhaps he, Courtney Lee, and some draft picks could interest the Nuggets.  Houston would then have Aaron Brooks, Anthony, Luis Scola, and Yao (if healthy) as their core.  This would not be a great deal for Denver but it gives them something.

Orlando Magic: To me this is the most interesting potential landing spot, but also the hardest to work out.  The Magic's best tradable asset is Jameer Nelson, which means the Nuggets would likely have to move Billups too to make room for Nelson.  Rashard Lewis is an OK player but has a huge contract.  Vince Carter could provide some production and an expiring contract, but overall the Magic just don't seem like a financially feasible trade option.

Remember that Anthony does not have a no-trade clause, but it is in the interest of all parties that he goes to a place where he will be content; it just makes the logistics of the trade easier. So Anthony has some leverage, and ultimately we may see Carmelo in NYC, simply because that is where he wants to be.

--from Adam

(Image from coloradosportsdesk.com)

Who Will Rule the Next Decade of Sports?

As projections are one of the least certain and most fun exercises, I thought I'd give it a whirl.  Here is my list of the top five players that will rule the MLB, NFL, and NBA landscapes for the next decade.

MLB

Go Medical Science!

1. Stephen Strasburg: As unfortunate as it is that he has to have Tommy John surgery, most guys that throw huge heat have to undergo it at some point.  My hope is that he comes back even stronger from this surgery.  If he does, he will be embarrassing hitters for at least the next ten years. 
2. Albert Pujols: He still has some huge years left and we may see him take down some serious baseball records over the next decade. 
3. David Price: Here's a great young pitcher who has faced adversity and pulled through it.  A huge talent and a smart guy, Price should be a Cy Young candidate for years to come.
4. Jason Heyward: The hype was huge for this young man and while he isn't having the best debut season of all time, he is hitting .270 with 14 home runs.  He's only 21-years-old and should continue to improve each year.
5. Joe Mauer: Mauer is having a down year by his standards, but he still has the sweetest swing in the majors and a rock solid approach.  He may have to switch positions to prolong his career, but he is as good of hitter the game has seen in years.

In the Discussion: Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Phil Hughes, Matt Latos, Evan Longoria, Robinson Cano, Bryce Harper, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Wainright, Josh Johnson, Carlos Gonzalez

NFL

Go Green Bay!

1. Aaron Rodgers: With a great head on his shoulders, all the skills in the world, and a rock solid organization at his back, the sky is the limit for the real A-Rod.  Having Jermichael Finley doesn't hurt either. 
2. Patrick Willis: Ten years from now we will be saying about Willis what we currently say about Ray Lewis.  Willis is unique in his athleticism, work ethic, and passion for the game.  He may be off to the best three year start of any player in the league's recent memory. 
3. Darelle Revis: Already the best corner in football at age 25, Revis incredibly has time to improve.  Once his contract is settled he can get back to what he does best, stifling receivers.  His style of play is more reliant on technique than speed, so even as Revis' physical abilities decline, he will still be able to compete at a high level. 
4. Matthew Stafford: At only 22-years-old, the kid already has a full season of starting experience under his belt.  Stafford may have the best physical tools of any passer in the league and has an improving core of young talent around him. 
5. Jake Long: In two seasons, Long has made two Pro Bowls at the league's second most important position as it protects the livelihood of by far the most important player, the QB.  Long will thrive blocking for a blossoming talent in Chad Henne and for an old school coach that likes to run the ball.

In the discussion: Jermichael Finley, Calvin Johnson, Vernon Davis, Matt Ryan, Ryan Clady, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ndamukong Suh, Mario Williams, Nick Mangold, Joe Thomas, Ray Rice, Phillip Rivers, DeSean Jackson, DeMarcus Ware

NBA

Go Away!

1. LeBron James: He will be 35 in another ten years, and while I contend that once his athleticism goes, his game is not refined enough to maintain his greatness, he still has plenty of legs left.  He will do a lot of winning and a lot of stat stuffing over the next ten years. 
2. Dwight Howard: All he needs is a great player beside him to share the burden.  He needs a prolific scoring sidekick so that he can focus on blocking shots and vacuuming the boards.  I think with the right cast around him he can be the most important player in the league. 
3. Kevin Durant: This may be the only list he appears third on for a while.  He will be 31 in ten years and he already has a scoring title and a second place finish in the MVP race.  He will get some MVPs with the Three Kings sharing the spotlight in Miami, and some more scoring titles too. 
4. Russell Westbrook: This guy might be the most athletic point guard in the league.  He's a better shooter than Rajon Rondo or Derrick Rose, though he still needs to work on his stroke.  Playing with Durant, he could rack up lots of wins. 
5. Kobe Bryant: He probably won't be playing ten years from now, but he has the potential to add a couple more rings and an MVP title or two in the next five years.  That would be good enough to carry him to Player of the Decade honorable mention.

In the Discussion: Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Brandon Jennings, Brandon Roy, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Tyreke Evans

--from Adam 

(first two images from espn.com, third image from zimbio.com)

Inevitability and Albert Pujols

This may strike you as a bit of a mixed message seeing as I just ripped baseball to its core in my last article, but now I have to heap praise upon one of the game's most brilliant singular talents.  This is what the game is still good for, what makes the game watchable even when your team is being lapped by the competition and the doldrums of summer baseball are at their most monotonous.

Numbers are the game's saving grace and are what makes the sport compelling despite itself.  I may not be able to watch an entire game, but I will still check a box score to see what kind of day my favorite player had.  And in the history of baseball, certainly the recent history, nobody's numbers have been so mechanically consistent, so surreally productive, and so seemingly effortless to put up as Albert Pujols'.  His 400^th career home run is a landmark in baseball's historical landscape that we can all recognize, a good stopping place along the trail for us to sit and reflect on what we have seen and what may lie ahead.

Admiration for No. 400

As of August 27, Pujols' numbers are as follows: .321 batting average, 35 home runs, 93 RBI.  In the National League his batting average registers as second best, and in the latter two categories (homers and RBI) he leads the league.  This is clearly a wonderful statistical season, but the thing about Pujols is that this type of stat line, this place atop the leader boards in every category is, by his standards, simply average.  Nothing less is expected by Pujols and all fans of baseball.  Pujols is baseball's Roger Federer or Tiger Woods, yet because baseball is not an individual sport, Pujols is not the champion that Woods or Federer is despite his production as nothing less than the best of all time.

Through his first nine seasons Pujols has averaged (the word "average" here seems to imply something run of the mill, but in this case it is purely mathematical, and the numbers are dazzling) 41 home runs per season, a .333 batting average, and 124 RBI.  Those numbers standing alone could equal one of the best single seasons in baseball history; a stat line like that can make a powerful MVP argument in any year.

In terms of accolades Pujols is again king, although it seems he should have even more trophies adorning his mantle than he already does.  He has won the Silver Slugger Award (given to the best hitter at each position) five times.  He was won three National League MVP awards.  In the years that Pujols has not won the MVP he has finished 2^nd three times, 3^rd once, 4^th once, and 9^th once.  This means that in six out of nine years he has been considered one of the top two best players in his league, and every other year he was damn close.

Pujols may lay claim to yet another MVP this year, and he probably should.  The only danger is the personal ego of MVP voters who like to be seen as going against the grain, and seem to have disdain for dishing the award out to the same person over and over again.  Whether fair or not, Pujols' MVP chances will also depend upon his team's success.  If the Cardinals can beat out the Reds for the NL Central crown, then Pujols' MVP stock improves dramatically.

Prince Albert's got Pop

Whether or not Pujols wins the MVP award this year is largely irrelevant for the purposes of historical analysis.  He already has three and more will likely come at some point in his career.  What matters most now is whether Pujols can duplicate what he has done for the first decade of his career over his second decade of major league play.  Pujols is projected to end this season with 44 home runs, which puts him at 410 for his career.  He will be 31-years-old next year and likely will have 3-4 years of maximum prime production left.  Let's say he average 40 bombs for the next four years.  That would put him at a career mark of 570 long distance calls.  Then let's allow for a slight decline.  Say over the following three years he averages 30 home runs per year.  That would put King Albert at 660 blasts for his career and at age 37-38 he would likely be near the end of the road.  However, Pujols has been a true iron man and has had a career largely free of serious injury.  In addition he has a natural, smooth, and compact swing which allows him to generate power easily.  Perhaps to conclude his career he moves to the AL in order to DH for a team.  Let's say Albert plays to the age of 41, and hits 25 homers per year for his final three seasons.  That may be asking a lot, but he may also have an outlier season where he blasts 60 somewhere along the way.  If Pujols could produce according to these averages, he would hang up his cleats with 735 career home runs.   That would put him smack in between Ruth and Hank Aaron, good enough for second all-time on the home run list.  Note: Barry Bonds doesn't count… cheater.

We also need to understand the era in which Pujols is putting these numbers up.  This is an era where hitters typically face three or four pitchers every day.  That means adjustments, different pitches, and different styles.  Preparing to face four major league pitchers is infinitely more difficult than getting four at-bats against the same guy, which used to be the case before baseball became so specialized.  In addition, Pujols has likely faced numerous pitchers using performance enhancing drugs, which again makes things tougher.

The reason I put this article together is because 1) It is fun to think about numbers in a historical perspective and 2) it helps us understand just how good Pujols is, and hopefully helps us appreciate what is happening before our very eyes.

Pujols is the easiest superstar athlete to take for granted because his production never falters, he never draws attention to himself, and because he plays baseball.  His nickname, "The Machine," could not be more appropriate.  Yet we can't, as fans, be drawn into the line of thinking where we forget the magnitude of his accomplishments because of his hypnotic consistency.  We need to appreciate every swing, every two-for-four day at the plate, and every home run that brings us closer to watching history's greatest hitter.

--from Adam

(first image from espn.com, second image from johnnyarchive.mlblogs.com)

Somebody Help: Baseball is Boring the Bejeezus out of Me

Perhaps I'm being overly diagnostic or simply reactionary here, but something has got to change in the game of baseball.  I cannot watch it anymore.
 

It could be that my favorite team, the Brewers, are fulfilling their annual rite of summer by playing out the string of meaningless games and marching to a sub-.500 record.  The thing is, I should be accustomed to that.  It never used to bother me, or should I say, it never made me lose interest in the entire sport.  But this year I just cannot get into it, can't take the plunge, and I'm left to re-assess the game.

The term "pennant race" seems to be a bit ironic, perhaps even inaccurate.  "Race" seems to imply some kind of speed or urgency.  Even though the tortoise won, he competed against the hare; at least somebody in that competition was moving.  Baseball is like a race between the tortoise and…the other tortoise.
 

Can we really be on the edge of our seats yet?  Despite the fact that the Yankees and Rays are baseball's best two teams and share a division, I'm not exactly quivering in anticipation of a "race" that still has fifty games left to span and countless twists and turns yet to navigate.
 

The season is just too damn long.  162 games.  Should those games be spaced out over a full calendar year, teams are playing just about every other day.  I'm not interested in my own life every other day.  How can I watch a multitude of teams, most of whom are toiling in mediocrity, march towards another empty October?
 

The single game has no worth in baseball, which is to say, nothing separates one day from any other in this marathon season.  There are no particular games with heightened anxiety and anticipation.  Everything must be viewed as a whole and with the perspective that each game counts for less than one percent of the team's end of season record.  The NFL has 16 games (maybe soon to be 18 but I, for one, hope not).  Compared to an MLB season, losing one game in the NFL is equivalent to a ten game losing streak in baseball.  That is part of the problem, a baseball team can go on a ten game skid and it is essentially meaningless.

Another element in my baseball-induced coma is the style and pace of the game itself.  Any sport in which Manny Ramirez can survive and thrive is moving a bit too sluggishly.  One could reasonably argue (and I would agree) that the NBA season is too long.  But still at 82 games, the NBA plays half as many games as baseball and the games themselves are played at a fast pace.  The players' athletic abilities are so aesthetically pleasing; each NBA game is a chance to see something you have never seen before, whereas every home run looks about the same and every web gem a little bit repetitious.  Baseball lacks the flare and individuality of football and basketball, and without the heightened meaning of an individual game in a condensed season, I am left uninterested.

I don't mean to be all gloom and doom though.  I am a man with a plan, with the solutions for baseball's insufferable season.  It is a five step plan, and here we go:

1. Shorten the season: Games cannot be so worthless.  The Red Sox and Yankees have been playing for three centuries now; I cannot get hyped up just because they are playing each other yet again, for the fifteenth time this year.  Rivalries only work if there is a true desperation to them.  That is why postseason baseball is so fun, because games really matter then, where the pace of the game becomes less laborious and more artistic.  Purists will argue that this will skew the numbers game, but that's bogus.  Any time baseball changes its rules, there's an uproar.   In this day and age steroids have skewed that conversation even further.  So in short, shorten the damn season so I can watch through the fifth inning without having to drink so many beers that the game either becomes fascinating or I fall asleep.
2. Let more teams into the playoffs: No sport has as great of a dichotomy between haves and have-nots as baseball.  The Yankees have twenty-seven championships while the Pirates are working on their eighteenth consecutive losing season.  Yet, in a single series, anything can happen.  Baseball's playoffs are an exclusive VIP club.  You could almost hear the establishment groan when the Rays crashed the World Series party a few years ago.  But now the Rays are established and will be welcomed to the postseason like kings.  If baseball would merely open its door a little wider, the playoffs could provide more excitement, diversity, and surprises.  More magic.  Let six teams from each league in, and give two teams a bye.  That way the postseason expansion is not dramatic, but it's enough of a change to engage the slumbering masses.  Adding slots to the postseason would help solve the riddle of the meaningless regular season as more teams, more cities, and more fans would feel the excitement of a possible playoff trip.
3. Let the teams with the best records into the playoffs regardless of division: You can keep the divisions, and the rivalries, but simply take the six best teams and put them in the playoffs.  Doesn't it just make sense to have the most proficient ball clubs play each other?  If this change were made we could have the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees all in the postseason together.  That would add such fun, such rivalry, such marketability to the postseason.  And, with six teams making the playoffs, each division would still likely have a representative regardless.
4. Write the unwritten rules: I am so tired of hearing about the unwritten rules of baseball.  I realize it is part of the charm of our national pastime, but nobody seems to really know what these rules are, where they extend, and how they should be adhered to.  Let's stop allowing teams to clear benches when somebody gets thrown at either intentionally or innocuously.  I don't need to see the least athletic athletes in professional sports charge off the bench and then stand five feet apart pretending that they might actually fight each other.  (However, if we could have an annual replay of Pedro Martinez throwing Don Zimmer away like a rag doll I would be willing to reconsider this proposal.)  Make the rule that if you bean somebody you are suspended for your next start or appearance so that we can actually see who is just having control issues and who is trying to take people's heads off.  It is unsafe to have 100 mph fastballs hurled at player's heads just for the sake of some unwritten and misunderstood rule of retaliation.
5. Put some kind of salary cap measure into effect: Now, I don't mind dynasties one bit.  I'm a Laker fan for crying out loud and my happiest days were those cheering for the 49er dynasty (at least I think so as I was about seven the last time they won the Super Bowl).  But both pro football and basketball have benefited from a little bit of parity.  I don't want all teams to be equal, but I want the playing field to be leveled to some degree.  Organizational intelligence has to matter somewhat.  Sound personnel moves, quality scouting, well-timed decisions, the sustainability of your financial distributions: these things have to bear some weight.  Without a salary cap though, teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can spend themselves out of any problem they get themselves into.  The Brewers, Pirates, Padres, and other small market teams have to wait for a perfect storm of accumulated young talent, affordable veterans, and blind luck to make the playoffs once in a decade.  I don't want to destroy the financial landscape of baseball, just tweak it, to make things just a bit more equitable.

These are my half-baked, dream world proposed changes.  Take them, leave them, I don't care.  But until something changes in baseball, I really can't care.  I have no time for baseball, because to really enjoy it, I would need all the time in the world.

--from Adam

USA Basketball: How the Mighty Have Fallen

If you have been watching the FIBA basketball championships, and I know I haven't, you may be on the verge of an epiphany.  USA Basketball has either precipitously deteriorated, or the rest of the world has fast-tracked their programs to catch us.

It is hard to tell which is happening: is USA Basketball in the tank or do the rest of the world simply have some fantastic players and a new commitment to hoops?  I think as always, the answer lies somewhere between these two extremes.

Clearly, this FIBA team is not the best squad that the USA could trot out, but it still boasts some elite talent.  LeBron, Kobe, Dwight Howard, and D Wade are not here.  However, Kevin Durant, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala, Rudy Gay, and Chauncey Billups are All-Star level players, and there is plenty of other talent rounding out this squad.

So then why was this FIBA squad in a dog fight with Lithuania well into the third quarter?  The nationalistic announcers struggled to explain the US team's issues offering up choice nuggets like "Well, Linas Kleiza is a dangerous player," and, "Well, Lithuania has a couple of guys that played at the college level in the United States."  Are you kidding me?  Linas Kleiza and a battalion of Drew Neitzel wannabes that played unspectacularly at American University are giving NBA All Stars fits?

Why does the US need a last-second block to defeat Spain as time expires?  Ricky Rubio, Rudy Fernandez, Jose Calderon, Marc Gasol.  Yes, these are solid NBA players, but these names can be found filling up the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year ballot, not an All-Star roster.

There must be more here than meets the eye.  Sure the FIBA ball is different, as is the lane, and the rules differ a bit in international play, but with the US' talent and athleticism advantage, we should be able to blow the doors off of any other country even if they were dribbling tennis balls down the court.

I think the answer to these quandaries lies in the brand of basketball that is being taught to US players in this day and age along with the style of play being promoted by the NBA.  David Stern has created a league where Kobe Bryant and the Lakers take on Dwight Howard and the Magic.  It is not two teams playing each other, it is two CEOs and their assistants battling each other for star power supremacy.

Rudy Gay: Dunker

When this mentality rules the day in the NBA, and when all of these players conditioned to be individual talents are asked to mesh into a cohesive team, we see an identity crisis.  Watching Iguodala, Gay, and Lamar Odom share the floor is like watching Sage Steele and Hannah Storm run an episode of SportsCenter into the ground.  They are both eye candy, sure, but they serve the exact same function, looking good.  You need a Scott Van Pelt in there to provide the comedy, the insight, and some form of sports knowledge.  The entire USA roster contains long athletes that can rebound and give you a highlight dunk, but they have essentially one player (Durant) that can knock down a jump shot.  Versatility is completely absent from this team.

This generation of NBA players has become one-dimensional.  Dwight Howard—not on the FIBA squad—has not developed any facet of his offensive game beyond a power dunk despite being in the league six years.  LeBron still can't shoot a jumper.  Derrick Rose survives on pure speed and strength.  I am pretty sure I could vanquish Rajon Rondo in a three point contest.

On the flip side, we see all kinds of international players with well-rounded skill sets.  No player has a more polished post game than Spaniard Pau Gasol.  The best shooting big man is a German, Dirk Nowitzki.  The Italian Andrea Bargnani, the top pick a few years ago, was drafted as 7-footer with a guard's skill set.

Derek Rose: Textbook Jump Shot

Basketball is a team game where skills and chemistry will trump athleticism every time.  The Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, and Denver Nuggets have learned this over and over the past couple of seasons.  Don't get me wrong, athletes that can dunk from the free throw line and jump out of the gym have their place in the game, but they are only effective when complemented by floor-spacing shooters, skilled low post players, and ball distributers that can see the floor.

The United States continually produces the same type of player again and again.  Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett are a dying breed of versatile and multifaceted NBA players being replaced by the dunktastic Lebrons, Howards, Blake Griffins and the ultra-quick but no jump shot Roses, Westbrooks, and Rondos.

Clearly this has had an impact on the USA's international prowess, but it is also going to have an effect on the overall quality of basketball played in the NBA.  Ten years from now, what will the NBA look like?  Will jump shots be outlawed?  Will teams shoot 30% in games and receive three points for dunking?

Our last hope for a well-rounded player

I am not sure exactly how far the US has fallen, but it appears that this is a holistic issue of what players in this country are being taught, what they are seeing on television, and which players they are emulating.  United States basketball must take a page out of Europe's book, (and the US government should probably borrow some European ideas as well) and start preaching skill over athleticism.  If not, we could be looking at more international embarrassments and a truly ugly brand of basketball moving forward for the NBA.

--from Adam

(first two images from zimbio.com, third from espn.com)

NBA Crystal Ball

With busy personal lives and a preseason football overload, we had to take a little break, but now we're back.  Here's Adam's take on what to expect in the 2010-2011 NBA season.

Awards Section: OK, let's dive into the insanely premature awards section where I somehow determine who will have the best NBA Seasons, and then bullheadedly defend my predictions in the face of logic, reason, and other bullheaded people.

MVP: 

1. Kobe Bryant (Winner)- Call me a homer if you will, and you will, but there is a very good rationale for this.  Often the MVP goes to the best player on the best team as long as he is clearly alpha dog for his team, but since in South Beach LeBron James will no longer be "the man," he will not three-peat as MVP.  Kevin Durant will be right there, but his team will likely finish 5-10 wins behind a reloaded Lakers team featuring the healthiest Kobe in years.  In addition, Bryant is finally taking a summer to rest and rehab rather than play international ball.  I see the Laker's as a 60-win team this season; the only other team that may win as many games are the Heat because of their three MVPs.  Also, Kobe may get some votes as a type of lifetime achievement nod.
2. Dwight Howard- I think that the Magic are going to struggle a bit after the emotional damage they endured being ousted easily the last two years by the Lakers and Celtics.  They won't be as good of a team as the past couple years with a declining Vince Carter and an inconsistent Rashard Lewis.  That however, will allow Howard to step into an even larger offensive role, and given what he already does on the boards and defensively, this will be Howard's best ever season.  Aided by the emerging Jameer Nelson, look for Howard to average 24 points, 12 boards, and 3 blocks per game.  Those numbers are MVP worthy, but he will ultimately be held back by his team's lack of success relative to the Lakers and Miami.
3. Kevin Durant- Logic might have this rising superstar earning an MVP next year, but his team will still ultimately hold him back.  They are very talented, but they have holes, especially in the low post.  Though they gave the Lakers problems with their speed, LA has reloaded and gotten healthy.  I think Durant will put up similar numbers to last year, but ultimately will finish behind Kobe and Superman because his team won't take a huge leap.  Russell Westbrook's meteoric rise may also detract from the attention on Durant.
4. Rajon Rondo- The kid controls the pace of the game as well as any point guard and his confidence just broke the meter after this postseason.  He believes he is the best player in basketball and the FIBA experience will help his leadership skills and his jump shot.  If he can start to knock down a consistent 15-20 foot jumper, he will be unstoppable.  Although Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are declining, they still form a very good supporting cast that will allow Rondo to play ring leader.
5. Derrick Rose- Though he still has some refining to do (ahem, jump shot) he is getting better every second and is absolutely impossible to keep out of the lane.  The addition of Carlos Boozer will make this team leagues better in the half court.  Other Jazz imports Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer will provide the penetrating Rose with great kickout options, and Brewer will be an excellent open-court athlete for Rose to play with.  Taj Gibson is an emerging talent at forward, and although people are expecting way too much from Joakim Noah, both are very nice fits for this team.

Honorable Mention:

Lebron James- It's called Most Valuable Player.  LeBron may be the best talent in the league, but if he was injured for the year, Wade and Bosh would still have this team in the top-5 of the East.

Deron Williams- I love his game and his efficiency, but I am not sure Al Jefferson is enough to replace the production of Boozer, Korver, Wesley Matthews, and Brewer.  This leaves Williams a bit short in the win column to really challenge for this award.

Amare Stoudemire- While the Knicks will not be title threats, Amare will be the focal point of an offensive system that always scores points, and finally has some personnel (Ray Felton, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Danilo Gallinari) that can instill fear into opponents.

Carmelo Anthony- He will score close to 30 a game, as usual, but his performance in this race depends on how well his up-and-down team performs.

Dwyane Wade- Read "LeBron James."

Title Contenders:

LA Lakers- Hell, they have won the West three consecutive years and the NBA Championship the last two.  Their weaknesses last year were a lack of health and a shaky bench.  Every Laker besides Lamar Odom is recuperating this summer and should be at full strength to start the season.  Also, this team will likely take the approach of coasting through the regular season to make sure guys are rested and healthy for the postseason.  Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, and the re-signed Shannon Brown will join Lamar Odom to create an experienced, talented, versatile, and solid bench crew.  All these players could start for other teams, and they all have postseason—some even Championship—experience.  Look for Kobe, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, and Derek Fisher to receive a few less minutes per game to keep them extra fresh.  LA is now the deepest team in hoops, and along with Miami, is also the most talented. 

Miami Heat- Everyone is curious about how this is going to work.  Fortunately, this team will be able to coast through the regular season on talent while they are still figuring out roles and establishing chemistry.  In terms of top level talent, no team beats the Heat, but questions remain about how strong they will be on the boards and how well their supporting cast will perform over the course of a full season and a long playoff run.  They may rack up 60-65 regular season wins overwhelming teams with their offensive firepower, but in the playoffs, teams like the Celtics, Magic, and Bulls will challenge the Heat's weaknesses: inside strength, depth, and chemistry.  I really hope we get to see Boston vs. the Heat in the Easter Conference Final; that would be a wonderful matchup. 

Boston- It's funny that the minute the Lakers won the title people were claiming the Celtics' window had closed.  I don't believe that for one second.  Rondo is going to be a superstar and the big three now plays a complementary role to him.  Jermaine O'Neal and Shaquille O'Neal (no relation) will provide production in the paint as they split time at center and wait for Kendrick Perkins to return from injury.  My worry is that once Perkins does come back, how do the C's split time between Big Baby, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaq, and Perkins?  The latter three are essentially variations of the same player, so somebody is going to be the odd man out, and there is a huge amount of ego on this team.  Still, Boston has Doc Rivers, a great system, and lots of talent.  This team will be right there again. 

Dallas Mavericks- Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler give the Mavs power, length, and athleticism like they have never had at center during the Dirk Nowitzki era.  They will need those erasers at the basket as Jason Kidd and Dirk are another year older.  Nowitski and Caron Butler form a very good 1-2 scoring punch assisted by a host of very nice complementary scorers in Shawn Marion, Roddy Beaubois, and Jason Terry.  The issues with Dallas again will be mental toughness, defense, and if their whole can be greater than the sum of their impressive parts. 

Oklahoma City/Orlando Magic:  I know I'm hedging, but these teams seem so close to me.

The Thunder have two guys in Westbrook and Durant that can both be top-10 players in the league within a year (Durant already is).  Jeff Green is a very good, steady player in a Lamar Odom mold, and James Harden is going to be a very good all-around player who can score twenty when he needs to.  Cole Aldrich helps their size problem, but they still don't have a go-to pivot option, and they are still undersized overall.

The Magic are only this high because Dwight Howard is such a difficult matchup for anybody in the league.  He is bigger, stronger, and more athletic than any other center and commands unusual attention.  Nelson is not a star but he is a good player.  Lewis is making far too much money but does shoot the three well.  Carter will score the ball but is a defensive liability.  Marcin Gortat should get more time playing alongside Howard.  All in all, the Magic have done nothing to make me think they are ready to take the next step, but Howard will keep them an elite team.  If they can deal for Chris Paul though, I will have to seriously reassess.

Internet Watch #3

Looking at the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars franchise - SPOILER: It's not good.

According to Iran's president, Paul the Octupus is the Fall of Western Civilization.

Here we have the most inevitable news story this side of death and taxes.

Have a look at how Madden rates NFL players for its latest edition.

Sheep love cabbage.