I think it is really interesting to look back 2 years when the Celtics beat the Lakers in 6 games and see what has changed and what we can learn. First, the Lakers blew a 25 point lead in game 4. Had the Lakers not blown a 25-point lead in Game 4, they would have at least forced a game 7, but they were not as good as the Celtics that year. The Celtics won 66 games that year to the Lakers' 57.
That Lakers team was different in a variety of ways: Sasha Vujacic, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Luke Walton played major minutes, and Trevor Ariza was not yet a key rotational guy, that happened the next year. Andrew Bynum did not play at all with, surprise, a knee injury. Flash forward to today and Vujacic hardly plays, Radmanovic is mercifully gone, Shannon Brown is a much more solid player than Walton or Vujacic, Bynum will be playing albeit not very healthy, and Ron Artest has joined the fold. The Lakers have gotten stronger, more athletic, more reliable, and more experienced since their '08 Finals defeat. Pau Gasol is a much stronger, more confident, and all around better player after two straight finals appearances and three years in the triangle offense. Lamar Odom is now a much better player with a more clearly defined role and better jump shot. Kobe Bryant is older and not the same exact player he was then, but lately is just as effective and transcendent as ever. Bynum will be there, and if he can give the Lakers 20-25 minutes of banging with Kendrick Perkins and challenging shots in the lane, plus a few offensive board and a couple buckets, then that will be something they didn't have in 2008 either. Artest gives the Lakers a guy that can honestly make life awful for Paul Pierce, and make him work on both ends. Artest over his last 5-6 games is averaging around 15-16 points a game and hitting his three point shots. He looks comfortable in the triangle, is rebounding and playing great defense. Plus Pierce is the perfect guy for him to guard, not quick but strong and intelligent. Pierce will not be able to go wherever he wants on the floor with Artest in his shirt, and that will hurt the Celtics because Pierce is their only guy who can isolate and score on his own. Also, Artest helps with the Lakers toughness factor which they severely lacked in 2008. Radmanovic, Walton, and Vujacic are not nearly as tough-minded, athletic or imposing as Bynum, Artest, and Shannon Brown.
The Celtics are different as well. They won 50 games this regular season as opposed to 66 two years ago, though that may have largely been due to health and a veteran team pacing itself. Still, a 16 game differential has to have some significance. Rajon Rondo is a full-fledged star now and really runs the show for this team. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Pierce are each a half step worse than in 2008, but with the collective mentality this team plays with they are as tough as ever. Perkins is a main stay, and one of the best post defenders in the game. James Posey and Leon Powe are gone, but Rasheed Wallace, Glen "Big Baby" Davis, and Tony Allen have been a very good bench crew. Garnett is healthy again and while not the MVP he once was, is still an imposing figure. Sheed, Garnett, and Perkins are probably all top 15-20 post defenders in the NBA, which makes them a great match for combating Gasol, Bynum, and Odom. Ray Allen was huge guarding LeBron James in the Cleveland series, but mostly be played off of him and forced him to shoot jumpers, or funneled him toward Perkins and Garnett. You cannot make Kobe a jump shooter because the mid-range game is where he dominates. In this sense Kobe is a tougher guard than LeBron because with him you must account for more things. Let's get to some matchups...
Kobe guarding Rondo - In this series, it is likely that Artest will check Pierce, and that Kobe will not spend his energy chasing Ray Allen around picks and screens all night, so he has to guard Rondo. This will be very interesting. Look for Kobe to give Rondo as many 15-18 foot jumpers as he can take, and to primarily look to cut off his driving lanes. Kobe has length to bother Rondo, and shouldn't get beat off the dribble because he will be giving a considerable cushion. Kobe will also be physical with Rondo and be a bigger, more experienced defender than he has gone against in this postseason. The cushion Kobe gives will however give Rondo a lot of space to view the floor and make passes. Jordan Farmar will guard Rondo some as well, and when he is in look for tighter coverage because Farmar is young and can stay with Rondo in terms of quickness.
Fisher and Brown guarding Ray Allen - Ray Allen is a nightmare to guard because he runs all day. Thankfully Fisher will get constant spells from an athletic and strong Shannon Brown. Fisher is a good defender and is great at getting through screens. Still, Allen will have the height advantage and Fish will get tired chasing him all day. When Brown is in Allen will not be able to elevate over him as easily.
Artest guarding Pierce - I cannot wait for this. This is what gives the Lakers a much better chance than last time around. It's as if Artest was specially made to guard Paul Pierce. Artest is 6' 7" and weighs 260; Pierce is 6' 7" and 240. Artest allows Kobe to not have to check a great player and leaves him free to float and help defensively, and conserve energy for offense. After all, Kobe can leave Rondo alone at the three point line without worry. Pierce is slow, herky jerky, strong and methodical. Artest is a bull, with a great center of gravity, lightning quick hands, and a relentless commitment to one-on-one defense. Pierce is Boston's lone isolation threat; Artest is LA's one-on-one stopper. Pierce will win some battles for sure, but Artest is two years younger with less mileage on his legs, and really only has to worry about locking down Pierce. Pierce will not be able to do the same things he has against the Magic, Cavs, or Heat.
Gasol, Odom on Garnett - Gasol has gotten much stronger and is overall a better defender. The Lakers also just have more commitment to defense than they used to. Still Garnett is cagy, and has his elevation back. He will be tough on the block, especially for Odom, but will not be able to take either Gasol or Odom on the outside and beat them with his quickness like he could two years ago.
Gasol, Bynum, Odom on Perkins, 'Sheed, Big Baby - Perkins is not much of an offensive threat but you have to keep a body on him otherwise he will vacuum up offensive boards and gather dunks. Bynum has the strength and body to deal with him, but we will see about that knee. Any of the Laker bigs can guard Big Baby, but he too is active on the glass and is just a worker. Wallace mostly hangs around the three line so Odom will likely guard him, but he can go to the block which could be problematic for Odom.
Rondo guarding Fisher - Rondo is an excellent defender, especially at getting steals off the ball. However he cannot leave Fisher, especially in the postseason, alone at the three-point line. Fish won't assert himself too much offensively but he will spot up, and attempt to get Rondo into some foul trouble.
Allen on Kobe - This is a huge advantage for the Lakers. Either Pierce or Allen has to guard Kobe and that means one of their top 3 scorers has to be working all night trying to stop the best offensive player in the game. Kobe will be on a mission too in this series; he holds grudges like a mother. That may mean Kobe tries to win this series by himself, but he should be past that as a player and knows he will need his friends to beat Boston. Ray is very balanced, smart, and is about Kobe's size, really the perfect defender for Kobe. Kobe will get his points but will struggle with Ray. Pierce is too slow to check Kobe.
Pierce on Artest - Mostly Pierce has to guard Artest as a spot-up shooter as he has been hot in the last handful of games from outside. Artest has also been taking the ball to the hoop a little more, which would be great to make Pierce work a bit more and get into foul trouble. Ron will relish this matchup, and if he can routinely score in the mid-teens for LA, that will be a huge boost.
Garnett on Gasol and Odom- This is another heavyweight matchup. Gasol has not faced anything near a defender like KG thus far in the playoffs. KG is long and lean and incredibly smart and active on defense. Yet Gasol is now the best low-post scorer in all of hoops and has quickness and mid-range game to make Garnett work. Odom is too quick for Garnett and will make him come away from the hoop which can open up drive lanes to get to the bucket or hit spot shooters when Boston's other men help.
Perkins on Bynum - One advantage for Bynum is that this series should be a half court pace which will be better on his knee. If he can contribute 20-25 minutes, and maybe get 8 points and 8 boards with a block or two, and give some hard fouls I will be happy. Gasol, Kobe, Artest, and Odom are going to have to be the scorers for the Lakers to win.
Neither team likes to double team so these matchups should get real personal and real nasty. The Celtics are getting a better tune up playing Cleveland and Orlando, as opposed to Utah and the Suns. It may be a shock to the Lakers going from the no-defense Suns to the best defensive team in the game in the Celtics. This series hinges on Bynum's ability to be active and productive, Gasol playing big, Kobe sharing the ball, and Odom creating mismatches. Both teams are about 8 deep, both teams are very good defensively, and both teams have multiple scorers. It will be about adjustments, desire, and who wins each matchup. I like that this time the Lakers have home court, and revenge on their minds. Yet still the Celtics are just nasty gritty, talented, tough, and a team through and through.
Series Prediction - With the home-court advantage, plus the addition of Artest, Shannon Brown, and the development of Gasol and Odom, the Lakers have a great chance, but the Celtics are the mentally toughest team I have ever watched, and their defense is smothering. If Bynum were going to be fully healthy, I would go Lakers in 7, but he isn't, and LA desperately needs his size. I doubted the Celtics against the Magic and they proved me wrong. Home court is big, but the Celtics are better on the road than at home. I really don't know who will win, but my gut tells me the Celtics are the best team in hoops.
Celtics in 7.
--from Adam
--from Adam
