NFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

This feels weird to say, but the defending Super Bowl champs have nowhere to go but up.  Consider that the generous helping of success last year came to one of the youngest teams in league and one that experienced an unprecedented rash of injuries.  With all their young guys gaining a year of Championship experience and all the walking wounded coming back healthy and ready to go, it’s easy to see why both Adam and I predict the Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl Champions.

Our optimism also stems from who we have at QB1—the most important position in football—the league’s overall best player, Aaron Rodgers.  With off-the-charts accuracy, abundant arm strength, a quick release, surprising mobility, and the same number of rings as Brett Favre, Rodgers has it all.  Entering just his fourth year as a starter, expect big-time numbers.

Also at Rodgers’ disposal is one of the deepest receiving corps in football.  You can argue that since Rodgers is so great, he makes his receivers look great, but you cannot deny the raw talent on display.  There’s the game-breaking ability of Greg Jennings; the wily veteran, Donald Driver; the best third receiver in football, James Jones; and saying that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Jordy Nelson.

Before his season ended in Week 5 last year, über-athletic tight end Jermichael Finley was Rodgers’ favorite target.  Should Finley stay healthy, look for a big season out of him.

One of my biggest concerns heading into the offseason was addressing a position guys have shuffled in and out of for years, kick returner.  GM Ted Thompson allayed those fears when he drafted Randall Cobb, a dynamic return man out of Kentucky that should see action in the receiving game as well.

The Packer offense had trouble running the ball last year, which only leaves room for improvement.  Ryan Grant missed all but one half of football last season after injuring his ankle Week 1.  His return gives the offense a boost, but relying on a 28-year-old running back coming off a serious lower body injury may be a dicey proposition.  That is where last season’s playoff revelation, James Starks, can pick up the slack.  Add to those two the strong Alex Green drafted out of Hawai’i, and Green Bay should have a competent running back trio.

Though the defense lost one of its stalwarts, Cullen Jenkins, in free agency, Dom Capers still has enough guys to make you stand up and shout.

A beast off the edge, Clay Matthews is perhaps the most dynamic presence in all of football.  His speed, strength, and tenacity are unmatched.

Just one year removed from a Defensive Player of the Year campaign, team leader Charles Woodson now roams and creates havoc anywhere on the field.  Free from strict cover duty with the emergence of Tramon Williams and the speedy Sam Shields as excellent cornerbacks, Woodson can play in the box as another linebacker, feel comfortable covering a team’s 3rd-best receiver, and is extremely dangerous blitzing quarterbacks off the slot.

In the same first round where they drafted Matthews, the Packers also nabbed “The Freezer,” nose tackle BJ Raji.  Devouring double teams comes easy for the lynchpin of Green Bay’s 3-4, and Raji has spectacular pass rush ability from the inside as well.

The NFL these days is a pass-first league.  In order to win a team must throw the ball efficiently and stop opposing teams’ aerial attacks, mainly through pass rush.  Green Bay excels in both areas.  Unified from the front office to Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff all the way to the players on the field, the Green Bay Packers are going to be a very good team for a very long time.

Biggest Strengths: Aaron Rodgers (of course) and continuity.  Even though the Packers did not make a splash in the free agent market—they never do—in the lockout-shortened offseason, not having to acclimate so many new players works to the Packers’ advantage.

Biggest Weaknesses: Offensive line play.  Chad Clifton must stay healthy, rookie Derek Sherrod must come in and replace long-time starter Daryn Colledge, and the unit as a whole must get better opening holes for a fledgling running attack.

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC North

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are a sexy pick this year to come out and do something they haven’t done since the year 2000, win.  This looks like the year where all the pieces Detroit has assembled will put it together and go on a tear through the NFC.

Matthew Stafford undoubtedly is just what Detroit needs at quarterback.  Watching him play, he has proven that he has “it.”  All he hasn’t done is stay healthy.  Stafford must remain in the lineup for this team to fulfill its cosmic potential.

This potential jumps off the screen when looking at who else the Lions have on offense.  Calvin Johnson is a top-5 NFL receiver with freakish size and speed.  Though rookie second round pick Mikel Leshoure is done for the season with a torn Achilles, the Lions will still have a dynamite two-back combination with Jahvid Best and new addition Jerome Harrison.  Scott Linehan’s two tight end sets showed a lot of promise last year; Brandon Pettigrew’s and Tony Scheffler’s skillsets are tough to gameplan against.

The defensive line assembled under Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham is downright scary.  In only his second year, Ndamukong Suh is already among the most impactful defensive linemen in the NFL.  Suh’s strength, speed, and quickness make him unblockable.  Joining Suh in the trenches is this year’s thirteenth overall pick and a guy who many believe had first overall talent, defensive tackle Nick Fairley.  Flanking those monsters are the tenacious Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril, who comes off an 8.5-sack 2010 season.  With Suh and Fairley drawing double teams upon double teams, Vanden Bosch and Avril should punish opposing quarterbacks.

Elsewhere on defense, former Titan Stephen Tulloch will join his old defensive coordinator in Schwartz and vastly improve the Detroit linebacking group.

Beyond rising star safety Louis Delmas, the secondary is still a work in progress, but they did bring in Eric Wright to hopefully lock down one cornerback spot.  Pressure from the front four should really alleviate the burden on the back end, so if the secondary can at the very least be average, then this defense should go far.

Biggest Strengths: A young, talented team coming together around a young coach and quarterback.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is a sub-par unit.  They must improve to protect the fragile franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

The one move that didn’t happen has me a lot lower on the Vikings’ chances than I would have been, and that was their failure to re-sign Sidney Rice.  I love bringing in Donovan McNabb; I think he still has productive years left in him.  I understand people are down on McNabb after a lackluster 2010, but he was really hampered by playing in the talentless black hole that was the Washington Redskins.  The only problem is, aside from Adrian Peterson, these Sidney Rice-less Vikings look a lot like the Redskins.  Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and a bunch of nobodies greatly resemble Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and a bunch of nobodies.

Let’s not be all gloom and doom though.  Yes, the Vikings’ skill guys may not be that much better than Washington’s, but McNabb will now have the best running back he’s ever played with.  Our pick for best running back in football, Peterson outhits would-be tacklers and always delivers a little punishment of his own.  Such a big back that can cut, find holes, and burst into the open field is something to behold.

The defense is spearheaded by its defensive line, Jerad Allen and Kevin Williams in particular.  Both of those guys are top-5 league-wide in their respective positions.  The stout linebacking corps boasts stud Chad Greenway and heavy hitter EJ Henderson when healthy.  Yet, though once a top-flight unit, the aging front seven is no longer good enough to cover up for a poor secondary.

The offensive line is deteriorating quickly, especially after the release of Bryant McKinnie, who reportedly showed up to training camp weighing nearly 400 pounds.  Steve Hutchinson is no longer the elite player he once was, and outside of that the Vikings are still waiting to see if Phil Loadholt can become a solid player rather than just a heavily penalized giant who takes up space.

All told, this veteran team's window is closing quickly if not already shut.  Bringing in McNabb is a stopgap move—I was clamoring for the Vikings to bring in McNabb before Favre ever got there—that should help the team marginally in the short-term and perhaps somewhat more in the long-term as McNabb can mentor first round reach Christian Ponder.

Biggest Strengths: No matter who surrounds him, Adrian Peterson is a lock for a stellar season.

Biggest Weaknesses: The loss of Sidney Rice leaves a gaping hole at wide receiver, and Father Time is catching up quickly.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears still suck.

--from @jeuneski

Donovan to Don the Purple and Gold

If it wasn't the Eagles, it would be the Vikes.

Remember when a supposedly over-the-hill quarterback signed with the Vikings and ended up having the best year of his career?  That was the 38-year-old Brett Favre, coming off a less than inspiring year with the Jets.

This time the veteran quarterback coming to the Twin Cities is Donovan McNabb.  Like Favre, McNabb’s year prior to joining the Purple People Eaters was unspectacular.  Bear in mind though, that McNabb played for the Washington Redskins, one of football’s least talented offensive teams.  Last year proved that McNabb can’t be the singular talent that carries a football team to greatness, but that’s all it proved.

McNabb can still be very good—if not great—when given the proper supporting cast.  Just two years ago, McNabb posted a passer rating of 92.9, the 3rd-highest of his career, while compiling 3,553 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions.  He did all that on an Eagles team that relied almost entirely on the passing game; he got little help from the run game.  The opposite will be true this season where McNabb will have the behemoth force that is Adrian Peterson and the road-grating offensive line of the Minnesota Vikings.

Those that have dumped on McNabb as over-the-hill are missing the forest for the trees.  He may be too old to carry a bad Redskins team, but at 34 years old he is certainly young enough to push a team with great talent to ten wins or more.  He didn’t forget how to play overnight, and he didn’t lose his physical skills in one offseason.  Sometimes players are simply put in bad positions.  Success in football more than most any other sport is predicated on being on the right team, with the right fit, at the right time.  McNabb fits like a glove (and not OJ’s glove) in Minnesota.

Weapons abound under the re-inflated Metrodome roof.  Percy Harvin is the electric playmaker much like McNabb enjoyed with DeSean Jackson in Philly.  Visanthe Shiancoe, not to mention this year’s second round pick Kyle Rudolph, is the type of sure-handed tight end that McNabb covets and will use often to move the chains in the middle of the field.  If all that wasn’t enough, McNabb can also turn and hand the football to the best running back in the league, Adrian Peterson, 25-30 times per game.

McNabb is smart, he’s still mobile, and he can throw an excellent deep ball.  This Vikings team has the rare chance to combine a ball control running game with a positively frightening vertical passing attack.

Minnesota’s defense is also a talented unit.  Studs like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams compose a tremendous duo in the front four, and Chad Greenway emerging as a star at linebacker.

With this supporting cast, the Vikings quarterback doesn’t have to be other-worldly; he just has to be smart, have the ability to stretch the field, and not turn the ball over.  Essentially, all the Vikings needed in order to be a good team this year was to nab a game-managing quarterback.  They got all that and more in McNabb, who will show the doubters that with the right cast he can still be a dynamic star in this league.  Brett did it at the age of 38; Donovan surely can too at the tender age of 34.

--from @AdamHocking

(image from flickr.com)

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC North

Chicago Bears

I don’t care what you tell me, the Bears weren’t that good of a football team last year.  They only made the NFC Title game because they got to play the Seahawks in the Divisional Round.  Chicago ranked 28th in passing offense, 22nd in rushing offense, 20th defending the pass, and 2nd defending the run.  Their only true strength was stopping the run, Jay Cutler was as erratic as ever, the offensive line ranged from abysmal to serviceable, and the pass coverage was inconsistent.  The Bears have a lot of holes to address, and they only had five picks to fill those holes in this draft.

In the first round picking offensive tackle Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) was a great move.  Ready to start from day one, Carimi could turn into a dominant run blocker.  Physically, Carimi won’t be overmatched by anyone at 6’7” and 315 pounds.  Despite his enormous frame and brute strength, Carimi is light on his feet and quite adept in pass protection.  I believe he should be solid immediately and could develop into an elite, Pro Bowl player.

The Bears’ second round pick, Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea, builds on an existing strength, their run defense.  Paea will likely take the place of oft-injured Tommie Harris in the middle of the line, and he should do a good job of it.  Incredibly strong (a record 49 reps at the combine) Paea also has surprising quickness off the snap.  He won’t rush the passer, but he’ll be a force against the run.

Those two players, while good, essentially make up the core of the Bear’s draft class.  Nathan Enderle is a project quarterback from Idaho the Bears selected in the fifth round.  He won’t see the field unless a few people get injured, and I think the Bears could have addressed their receiving corps, offensive line, or secondary with the pick.

They did get defensive back Chris Conte from California in the late third round, which fits a big need.  Conte is a safety converted from cornerback and was a late riser on draft boards.   He should contribute early and bolster the secondary.

The Bears did well with their first three picks: Carimi, Paea, and Conte.  The first two should start right away and Conte will contribute on defense and special teams.  Enderle was a head scratching pick, and while the Bears filled some big needs, they have many holes remaining.  The picks they made were good, but they needed more of them.

Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Don’t look now, but the Lions have drafted extremely well recently.  Matt Stafford looks like a star talent when he’s healthy.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically imposing receiver in the league.  Last year Ndamukong Suh may have been the most dominant rookie of the past decade.  Jhavid Best, Louis Delmas, and Brandon Pettigrew all look to have promising futures in this league as well.  Detroit is becoming a talented team, year by year adding big time players.

In 2011 enter Nick Fairley.  Maybe Fairley didn’t fit a huge need, but getting one of the five best players in this draft at pick 14 was too good to pass up.  Fairley now pairs with Suh to create what should be one of the most feared defensive fronts in the NFL for the next 8-10 years.  Don’t forget Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril, all quality players still in the mix too.

Second round pick Titus Young (WR, Boise State) is the perfect foil to the gargantuan Johnson: small, quick, precise in his routes, and has very good speed.  He’s a smart player that catches the ball almost every time and can even help in the return game.

Then at pick 25 in the second round, Detroit got what I think was a first round talent in Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure.  Rated by some as the best running back in this draft, Leshoure is big at 6’0” and 227 pounds, very strong, and has enough speed with a 4.56 40.  He’s the physical back Detroit has been missing, a guy that can carry the ball effectively 20 times per game.  Leshoure should perfectly complement the scat back contributions of Best, and together they could form one of the league’s best young backfields.  Stafford, Best, Leshoure, Johnson, Pettis, and Pettigrew are a really impressive nucleus of young talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Though the first three picks were, I thought, fantastic, the Lions only selected two more players in the whole draft.  Fifth rounder Douglas Hoge (LB, Syracuse) is an athletic player who will most likely find his niche on special teams.  Johnny Culbreath in the seventh round is an offensive tackle who has an outside chance at making the team.

Fairley and Leshoure can be Pro Bowl players in my opinion, and I love that the Lions just decided “Hey, wouldn’t it be cool to have the best defensive tackle duo in the league for the next decade?”  Pettis, an excellent slot receiver and multi-purpose player, could take this offense to another level.  Like the Bears, Detroit only had a few nice picks and not much else, but the Lions’ top three choices really blew me away.

Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had the luxury of having minimal needs heading into this draft.  They’re coming off a Super Bowl performance in which several key starters weren’t even healthy enough to play, and they still won.  With most of those starters back in the fold this coming year, in effect this draft was just icing to an already scrumptious cake.

If there was a need on this team, it was offensive line.  Sure that unit was solid last year, but it wasn’t spectacular.  It’s aging in spots, and Aaron Rodgers is the single most important player in the league to protect.  With that, I loved the pick of Mississppi State tackle Derek Sherrod with the last pick in the first round.  He is a solid, first round talent, and many projected him to go higher than thirty-second.  At 6’5”, 321 pounds, he has the prototypical build to play offensive tackle in the NFL.  Having started his last three seasons, 50 total games in the rugged SEC, Sherrod should be used to pressure environments and a high level of physicality.  He’s quick for his size, smart, and has long arms.

Sherrod certainly brings a great attitude and an immense amount of talent to an improving Packer line.  Providing depth behind the Packers’ two starting tackles Brian Bulaga and the aging but still productive Chad Clifton, Sherrod may even slide in to play guard.  Bulaga, Sherrod, and guard Josh Sitton create a wonderful young foundation for the Green Bay offensive line.

If it’s possible, I like the Packers’ second round choice even more than their first.  Drafting a receiver wasn’t a need, but in getting Kentucky wideout Randall Cobb, the Packers took an already electric offense to off the charts territory.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson represent the league’s best receiving corps, but none of those guys is the smallish, cat-quick, slot-type receiver that can find openings underneath defenses.  Cobb is that man.  He has a lightning quick first step and is surprisingly strong, which helps him get his release off the line of scrimmage.  Plus, he has great hands and runs tremendous routes.  Scouts say football is his first love and they expect him to be a dedicated pro.  Cobb also brings intriguing talent to the return game, where his sudden quickness and agility might lead to some game-breaking returns.

In the third round the Packers continued to add weapons to the arsenal by bringing in the talented and bruising running back from Hawaii, Alex Green.  Green is 6’0”, 225 pounds and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash.  A punishing, make-one-cut-and-go runner with surprisingly good hands and very good acceleration, Green should make an impact right away, especially in short yardage situations.

The Green Bay receiving corps is deep, but the running back group is stockpiled as well with returning star Ryan Grant, last year’s breakout performer James Starks, and the rookie Green.  When the Packers run the ball, they’ll have an improved line and three talented backs to give the ball to.

In the fourth round the Packers continue their perfect weekend by selecting New Mexico State corner Davon House, who many had rated as a mid-second round prospect.  House will join the stud group of Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields.  If House is ready to make an impact as a nickel corner, that will free up Woodson even more to continue to rove between safety, corner, and blitz linebacker.  Essentially, the selection of House makes the league’s best secondary even more versatile.

In the fifth round, the Packers were clearly trying to make my head explode when they got my top-rated tight end in the draft, Arkansas’ DJ Williams.  Williams played in Bobby Petrino’s pro-style offense, had laser-armed quarterback in Ryan Mallett, and was hugely productive in the toughest college conference, the SEC.  At 6’2” and 245 pounds, Williams joins Cobb as a great middle of the field target.  He will be a nightmare for linebackers or safeties to cover with his 4.59 40 speed, soft hands, and great route running.

Williams and the returning mega-talent Jermichael Finley give the Packers the best tight end duo in the league.  Add to that to the best quarterback in the league, the best receiving corps in the league, a three deep running back rotation, and a much improved offensive line. Shnikees.

The Packers finished out the draft by adding depth and developmental players to the offensive and defensive lines.  Guard Caleb Schlauderaff from Utah was a nice pick in the fifth round.  He’s not overly talented but was a third team All-American as a senior and started virtually his entire career at Utah.  He’s considered a guy that should make the team, provide quality depth, and maybe even challenge for a starting spot.  The Pack may have also nabbed a steal in the sixth round with defensive lineman Ricky Elmore, who has a really quick first step and a knack for getting to the quarterback.

A team that didn’t need much improvement drastically improved.  They got a stud offensive tackle and a guard that should certainly make their final roster.  They got the one type of receiver they’ve been missing, a lightning-quick slot man who also returns kicks.  They added a physical, fast, punishing back to an already talented backfield.  They got a cornerback in the fourth round that could have gone early in the second and will give an already versatile secondary even more options.  They also got the best tight end in the draft, and can now pair him with the most athletically gifted tight end in the league.  With the coaching the Packers have in place, all of these players can reach their highest potential, and that is a frightening for the rest of the league.

Grade: A+

Minnesota Vikings

Maybe Christian Ponder will be a really nice quarterback in this league.  He’s athletic with a good but not great arm, a very talented player.  But that’s not quite the point.  Just like Jake Locker—who went eighth to the Titans—Ponder could have been had later in the draft, perhaps in the second round.  I suppose if the Vikings loved Ponder, it’s an okay move, but why not try to move back in the draft, accrue more picks, and look for Ponder in round two?

I digress…onto Ponder as a prospect.  With good size at 6’2” and 230 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.63 seconds, joining Locker, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick in what was an incredibly athletic QB class.  Ponder is a good kid that wants to win and was a leader at Florida State.  When he makes the correct read, he can be very accurate.  It’s just that he often has trouble reading defenses and makes a lot of ill-advised throws.  That only figures to get worse as a rookie starter in the NFL.  Ponder may well get to an elite level, but it’s going to take at least three years.

On the bright side for Ponder, he’s stepping into a system with weapons like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and fellow rookie Kyle Rudolph.  Notre Dame’s Rudolph was widely regarded as the best tight end in this draft.  He’s a big, smooth athlete with soft hands, good speed, good size, that came from a pro system.  He’s an effective route runner as well, the type of player that could be good right away but may never be great.

I really like their next three picks.  Christian Ballard (DL, Iowa) is a really good player that could have gone in the late second round, but the Vikings got him in the fourth.   At 6’4” and 283 pounds, he is big and strong enough to play defensive tackle.  Running a 4.75 40 at Ballard’s size was also very impressive, which indicates he’s athletic enough to be a pass rushing end as well.  Versatile, talented, and tough, if nothing else, Ballard provides quality depth to the line in his first season.

Getting Utah corner Brandon Burton in the fifth round may have been a slight steal; he definitely adds depth to a position of need on the Vikings.  His measureables aren’t mind blowing, but they’re adequate, and he’s a smart, instinctive, and tough player.

Demarcus Love (OT, Arkansas) was a great value in the sixth.  At 6’4” and 315, Love is a strong run blocker that could move to guard in the NFL.  He’s an imposing, nasty presence that started 37 games in the SEC and was a team captain.  In other words, he’s been through a lot of wars in the trenches of a tough conference and was a leader on his team.

Ponder was taken too high, but he is a gifted player and the Vikings needed a quarterback badly.  Rudolph adds a really nice talent to an already loaded offense.  Ballard and Burton will both see the field and could become starters, and I think the selection of Love will reap immediate benefits.  The Vikes also had five more developmental picks in the late sixth and seventh rounds.  One or two of those players will probably surprise and make the team.  Overall the Vikings got better in this draft, and the only time they reached was on a very talented player at a position of major need.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings

#11 Houston Texans

What They Need: It’s hard to nail down the needs of this team.  New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 scheme, which would seem to displace the Texans’ best player, defensive end Mario Williams.  I would bet Houston will mix and match with some 3-4 and some 4-3.  Either way, Houston needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker, corner, and safety.  They were dead last at defending the pass a year ago and just average against the run.  Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing provide a great, young defensive nucleus, but they need support.  The Texans’ 2007 top pick Amobi Okoye has not lived up to potential at defensive tackle.  Kareem Jackson was a rookie last year at corner and looked like it.  He should be much better this coming year, but he needs another talented cover man opposite him.  Offensively the Texans are very talented.  Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, Arian Foster won the rushing title last year, and quarterback Matt Schaub has proven to be a top ten passer.  The offensive line has been much maligned through the years, but when a team ranks fourth in passing and seventh in rushing league-wide, the line can’t be that bad.

Who They Might Pick: Though the secondary is the Texans most glaring weakness, I doubt that Prince Amukamara will last to pick #11.  Patrick Peterson will also be long gone.  Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a definite possibility here.  Standing 6’2”, he ran an impressive 4.42 at the combine and benched 225 pounds 24 times.  My guy Stephen Paea has been falling down draft boards lately, but he’s a possibility as well.  Lately draftniks are really enamored with the behemoth defensive tackle from Baylor, Phil Taylor.  He’s listed at 6’3” and 334 pounds and has surprising agility.  Not just a space-filler, Taylor was very productive last year, recording 62 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  If Houston is really committed to the 3-4, then outside pass rushers will be a high priority as well.  I would guess Cushing and Ryans would be the inside linebackers in that system, so help would be needed on the edge.  Robert Quinn from North Carolina could fall here, or Aldon Smith, a pass rusher from Missouri.  Adrian Clayborn might be a good catch-all pick for Houston, since they’re in transition.  He can play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle, push the pocket, and stuff the run.  Wisconsin's JJ Watt could fill that role as well.

My Advice: This is probably the toughest team yet for me to counsel.  The defensive side of the ball is where the pick has to be.  Corner is the biggest need, but the correct prospect might not be there, and defensive line is another big issue.  Since Houston was so god-awful against the pass last year, I just can’t justify them drafting a run stuffing defensive tackle, even though they certainly need one.  Antonio Smith and Williams are plenty big enough for to play end in the 3-4, so that takes Clayborn and Watt out of my equation.  By process of elimination, I’m left with the corner from Colorado, Jimmy Smith, and the two pass rushers, Quinn and Aldon Smith.  Since the Texans spent their first pick last year on a corner, I’m guessing they will go pass rusher with this selection.  Though Quinn projects higher, I’ll go with the guy who actually played last year, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Despite some injuries, he’s a great athlete and seems suited to play outside in the 3-4 system.

At pick eleven, the Houston Texans take Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.

#12 Minnesota Vikings

What they Need: With the supposed, alleged, maybe happening, who knows for sure, possible retirement of Brett Favre, quarterback is unmistakably a need for Minnesota.  The problem is Newton and Gabbert should be gone by this point on draft day.  Other than quarterback, there aren’t too many needs offensively.  Adrian Peterson is the most imposing offensive player in the league, Sidney Rice is a star who should be back and healthy, and Percy Harvin is as talented a receiver as there is.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a solid tight end as well.  The offensive line is aging and could use some help, but it’s still an above average unit.  Left tackle Bryant Mckinnie is thought of as a tremendous player by some, a worthless waste of space others.  I fall somewhere in between; he’s a fine run blocker that sometimes doesn’t move well enough against great pass rushers.  Guard Steve Hutchinson has lost something with age, but is still one of the better players in the league at his position.  John Sullivan is unspectacular at center, but solid, and Anthony Herrera can move people in the run game.  I’m pretty sure right tackle Phil Loadholt is an alien life-form; no human should be that big (6’8”, 350 pounds).  He can be very good with further development.  Defensively the Vikings saw the first signs of decline in their dominant defensive line last year.  Maybe the best single unit anywhere in the league over the past few years, the Vikes’ front four looked average in 2010.  Pat Williams is plainly too old—age 38—to dominate anymore.  Kevin Williams is still a great player, but he needs a guy like Jared Allen to take up double teams.  Allen started last year horribly but really came on late and finished the season with 11 sacks.  He’s only 28 and still a monster, no signs of decline.  Ray Edwards is a good end opposite Allen.  Led by the excellent Chad Greenway, the linebacking corps is pretty good.  E.J. Henderson is great against the run, but he has an injury history and has reached the deadly age of 30.  They could use an infusion of talent here, but they run the 4-3 and a linebacker of that style worthy of a top-15 pick simply does not exist.  The secondary could really use some help.  Antoine Winfield should probably move to safety.  He’s still a great tackler, but he can’t cover one-on-one anymore.  Chris Cook looks to be a nothing more than a decent player after being drafted high in the second round last year, but maybe he just needs time to develop.  Minnesota’s safeties aren’t special either, but there aren’t many great safety prospects in this year’s draft.

Who They Might Pick: Boy, if this team could find a passer, they could be right back amongst the league’s best.  That’s the reality for Minnesota, and that’s why I think they’ll try to find a proven veteran quarterback rather than reaching for Jake Locker at this spot.  I’m going to assume the Vikes plan on making a move for Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, or Carson Palmer.  With quarterback off the draft checklist, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, and safety remain as principal areas of need.  If they fell in love with an offensive lineman here, that would be a solid pick too.  Mike Pouncey from Florida would represent a definitive upgrade to either the center or right guard positions.  If they look defensive tackle I think Taylor from Baylor should be the pick.  He’s a Pat Williams clone, just 15 years younger.  He would help keep blockers from doubling Kevin Williams or Allen and could recreate the impenetrable run defense the Vikings once had.  Like I said, there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker that’s worth this high of a pick, so that’s out of the question.  The same can be said for safety.  Jimmy Smith, the corner from Colorado, would be a great fit.  He’s a dynamic athlete with great size, speed, and strength.  Everything you want in a corner physically, Jimmy Smith is fully capable of competing athletically with the league’s best receivers.  Pairing Smith with Cook would give the Vikings a set of tall, physical corners.

My Advice: It comes down to the corner Jimmy Smith or the defensive tackle Taylor. From my point of view Minnesota has been searching for a lock-down corner for years now and can’t pass up such a talented prospect.  Jimmy Smith should be the pick.  The defensive line is plenty strong to be a good unit next year, even minus Pat Williams who is no longer a force.  Getting pressure on the quarterback shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but covering receivers has been a big problem for this team.  Take Smith, and if he lives up to his talent, the Vikings will be very happy and much improved.

With the twelfth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from dallascowboystimes.com)

Revisionist History

All those that kicked and screamed like little children when Ted Thompson shipped out Brett Favre, please step forward.  It’s high time you receive your verbal whooping.

Don't Look Now

What have the teams that had Favre over the last three years gained?  The Jets got a text message scandal and 22 interceptions in a 9-7 year.  The Vikings got one drama-free good year, but ultimately Favre threw the decisive interception in the NFC Championship Game.  They also got this year, one of the most dramatic, disappointing, devastating years any franchise in team sports has recently endured.  Favre has managed to handicap this team from a salary standpoint, attract an unbelievable amount of negative attention, split the locker room, and get his head coach and chauffeur fired, Brad Childress—a coach, by the way, who the Vikings still have to pay $6.6 million to over the next two years.

And oh yeah, he’s played horribly.  Favre is on pace to tie his personal best of 27 interceptions in one season, and he’s thrown in a basket full of fumbles for good measure.  Tarvaris Jackson’s confidence is likely broken, and the “Fire Childress” chant that rang out during Sunday’s game against Green Bay was one of the most despicable, classless moments I have seen in sports this year.  In other words, Favre’s quest for personal glory has completely ravaged the Minnesota Vikings franchise, not just their season.  Favre’s hubris has left numerous individuals destroyed in its wake, like his wife, Childress, Jackson, Zygi Wilf, and every fan in Minnesota.

Payback's a Bitch

Meanwhile, have you seen what Aaron Rodgers is doing?  He threw for 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter, which has never been done before, and led the Packers to the playoffs last year.  He looks poised to take the Pack deep into the postseason again this year.  And, for those that shout about how Rodgers’ numbers are nice but Favre was the better winner, over the first two and a half seasons of their starting tenure, Rodgers and Favre had the exact same record (prior to Green Bay’s victory over Minnesota Sunday).  In that same period, Rodgers threw for 73 touchdowns and 29 interceptions while Favre threw for 57 and 45.  And, oh wait, Favre is having an abysmal season at age 41 while Rodgers is still ascending at age 26.  You idiot Thompson, we could have had three mediocre years with Favre and tossed away our future with Rodgers, and instead you had the audacity to ensure that the Packers will be contending for the next ten years.  What a jerk!

Some might argue that Favre is the better player because of his career numbers.  Pardon my French, but no shit.  Maybe when Rodgers has played twenty seasons we can compare.  One number that does provide a comparison though is career quarterback rating.  So far Rodgers has posted a 97 while Favre’s career rating sits at 86.

If you want to call Favre a great winner, tread lightly.  He only made the Super Bowl twice in twenty years and won only once.  Favre was more adept at derailing his team in the playoffs than leading them.  In both of his last two appearances in the NFC Title Game, Favre threw the crucial, game-losing interception.  He also has a few 5- or 6-interception playoff games with Green Bay.  Thanks for the memories Brett.

As for pure leadership, Favre deserves an “F” for the last half of his career.  He gorged himself on his image as a legend.  He hijacked the Packers franchise his past three seasons their by waffling about whether or not he would return, then retired, came back, and whined about how Green Bay moved on without him.  Then he moved to the Jets where teammates complained about Favre’s elitist behavior and poor play.  Then of course, he single-handedly annihilated the Minnesota Vikings.

Moving On

All the while, you don’t hear anything from Rodgers.  What you do hear are his teammates raving about how down to earth and how well liked he is.  All you see is Rodgers throwing a beautiful ball, making plays with his legs, and playing like the best quarterback in the NFL.

In short, Brett, you are getting everything you deserve.  You are no longer going to retire with the unblemished, iconic reputation you left Green Bay with.  You will be remembered partly for your toughness and longevity, but you will also be remembered as a self-adoring pervert, philanderer, bad teammate, turnover machine, overall poor sport, and a first class jerk.  Go away Brett, but for once, don’t make it about you.  You no longer have the chance to quit while you’re ahead.  For your benefit and ours, just disappear and let us forget about you for a while.

 

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com)

Vikings Snatch a Rolling Stone, Gather Moss

Randy Moss has been dealt to the Minnesota Vikings from the New England Patriots.  New England will get a third round pick in return.

Patriots: I don't like this move for them.  Tom Brady has maybe a three-year window at the top of his game, which means this organization has three years to win another Super Bowl.  With this year appearing to be one without any truly elite teams, the Patriots would seem to have a real shot at getting to the big game.  Now the chances of the Patriots winning it all are slim-to-none.  I know Moss' numbers were not huge this year, but he still has elite speed and demands double coverage.  He was the only vertical element in the Patriots' offense, which will now have to rely even more on their runningback-by-committee approach, as well as their short passing game.  With a suspect defense, a so-so running game, and Wes Welker ten months removed from major knee surgery, Moss was essential to this team's success.  With eight second-round picks over the past two drafts, perhaps New England thinks that they are not a Super Bowl team this year and are looking to the future.  In next year's draft the Patriots have the Raiders' first pick from the Richard Seymour trade, which should be a top-10 or top-5 pick, and their own first rounder.  They also have two second round picks including a high second rounder that they got from the Panthers.  Thanks to the Moss trade they will also have two third round picks.  And, oh yeah, they have two fourth round picks as well.  All told, a third round pick is not enough payment for an elite talent like Moss.

Eat your heart out, New England

Vikings: This trade is a huge win for the Vikings.  Moss is still a great receiver and is exactly the big target Brett Favre needs in the red zone and the deep threat that can open up the rest of the field for the offense.  Once Sidney Rice comes back, the Vikings will be the most talented offense in football with Adrian Peterson, Rice, Moss, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Favre.  Nobody can match that firepower or that run-pass balance.  Now it all comes down to Favre and the Vikings' offensive line.  If Favre can be efficient, smart, and hit some big plays down the field, the Vikings are a Super Bowl-level team.  The defense is very powerful, and if the offense can take off with Moss, this could very well become the best team in football.  Giving up a third round pick doesn't mean anything for the Vikes who are clearly putting all their eggs in the Favre basket.  Desperate for a championship this year, Moss gives the Vikings a great chance at achieving that goal.

--from Adam

Overreaction Friday: What We Learned from Last Night’s Opener

It’s that special time when I deduce what will happen for this entire season by watching one football game in September.  But in all sincerity, there are some things that can be said about last night’s Vikings–Saints game that have relevance moving forward.

1. The Saints' offensive line is either that damn good or the Vikings' defensive line is not quite what it was last year.  The Saints decided to air it out in the first half, so you would think Jared Allen would be on the lips of the broadcasters all night, but we hardly heard his name mentioned.  I don’t think I heard them call out "Kevin Williams" either.  In the second half the Saints pounded the ball on the ground, utilizing a cutback run where the offensive line moved the Williams wall to one side allowing the runningback to cut the other direction for a big gain.  The Saints do have a great offensive line, but still, nobody is supposed to run against the Vikings.  Pierre Thomas gained 71 yards on the ground, virtually all in the second half.  Usually the Vikings don’t allow close to that amount of yardage in one game.  Perhaps 37-year-old Pat Williams is wearing down, or it could be a one game aberration. 
2. Sean Payton is a much better coach than Brad Childress.  I expected the Saints to come up blitzing like crazy, but for most of the night they rushed three or four guys and dropped the rest into coverage.  The Vikings could not adjust to this.  Childress even said after the game that the Vikings, “didn’t have an answer” to the Saints' scheme.  Well Chilly, that is your job, to make adjustments and find an answer.
3. Brett Favre needed training camp and the preseason.  Sure, the Vikings may just need some time to get all on the same page, but a team can’t afford to work its way into a rhythm once the games count for real.  Favre was a bit off and the Vikings just didn’t have the belief that they could move the ball up and down the field. 
4. The Vikings miss Sidney Rice.  Percy Harvin operates best out of the slot because of his quickness, but he struggles as an outside receiver.  Rice bailed Favre out of a lot of situations last year, and made all the other recievers better.  Favre is still looking for a go-to guy, and if that guy is Visanthe Shiancoe, the Vikings are in trouble.

This was not a beautiful game by any means, but it was real football damnit and I loved every second.   The Vikings have to be concerned because they are a team that appears to be looking for answers, and their upcoming schedule will not lend itself to self-discovery.  In their next six games they play the Jets, Packers, and Patriots on the road, and the Dolphins and Cowboys at home.  They could be in deep trouble early in the season if they don’t figure out a better gameplan.

--from Adam

Season Kickoff: Vikings-Saints Live Blog

The Minnesota Vikings are coming back to New Orleans eight months after handing the Saints the NFC Championship game looking for revenge.  The Saints wish to show that they're not about to experience any Super Bowl hangover.  This is a real test for them coming already in week one.

And I'll be watching.  I've seen live journals of games on other sites and I figured I try my hand at it tonight.

Pre-Game

Paraphrasing from Dungy, "Favre knows the Saints will be blitzing him."
Look for the Vikings to throw a lot of quick passes.  Hopefully this will limit Favre rolling out late and then throwing across his body, cough, cough.

1st Quarter

15:00 - New Orleans institution Harry Connick Jr. marches in with the Saints.  And Andrea Kramer's on Twitter!

15:00 - "Nothing like a labor statement to start a season"  I cannot abide no football in 2011.  Get it done Goodell!

15:00 - Kickoff baby!

14:40 - A big play starts it, Marques Colston over the middle for 27 yards.

13:35 - Jerad Allen, Culinary Academy

12:56 - Touchdown, Brees to Devery Henderson, quick quick quick drive, five plays to paydirt, the Vikings weren't ready for New Orleans' hurry-up look

12:56 - How does Chilly answer?

12:56 - Who steps up in Sidney Rice's absence?

11:33 - Three and out for the Vikes

10:00 - Every quarterback who ever scrambled is learning from Brett Favre, according to Al Michaels.

9:26 - Two failed screen passes to start the drive backed up the Saints, three and out.

8:00 - If this drive leads to points, that is a key play: Peterson getting held up behind the line but still making a first down.

6:42 - Childress called a draw play and 2nd-and-forever.  Hooda thunk?

5:27 - Penalties stall the Vikings' second drive, but the Saints are left with poor field position.  Good punt Kluwe.

4:33 - Pretty little floater to Robert Meachem down the sideline after a potential botched play

3:30 - Forget your jock strap Ray Edwards?

1:25 - The Vikings are getting no pressure on Brees.  That will need to change if Minnesota wants to win this game.

0:48 - Spoke too soon... sack Greenway

0:00 - Vikings 0, Saints 7 

2nd Quarter

13:52 - I've never been a huge fan of Peterson catching balls out of the backfield, but he's made a couple nice plays tonight.

9:18 - Favre has no completions to his wide receivers yet, thanks Cris Collinsworth

6:16 - The Vikings' game plan so far: run, run, run.  I also haven't seen the Saints bring as much pressure as I was expecting.

5:32 - It looks it lulled Favre into a false sense of security; the pressure worked on third down after a defensive timeout.

5:28 - Ryan Longwell field goal from 41: Vikings 3, Saints 7

3:59 - That could've been a huge interception Asher Allen.

3:59 - 50 yards of field position with that punt

2:27 - Pressure creates Favre's first interception of the night

1:24 - The Saints cannot convert; Garrett Hartley misses a 46-yard field goal.

0:51 - I've seen this many times; Brett Farve loves the two minute drill.

0:34 - Touchdown - Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe for 20 yards, the extra point is blocked, Vikings 9, Saints 7

Halftime: Vikings 9, Saints 7

I think the Saints' complete inability to establish any sort of running game does not bode well for them down the stretch.  If they can continue to pressure Favre, their defense should hold up better than it did at the end of the half.

For the Vikings, I don't think it's a massive problem in this particular game, but with only two of Favre's eleven first half completions going to wide receivers, it shows they are still looking for someone to replace Sidney Rice's presence on the outside.  I will also say though that that could stem from the Vikings' plan for short, quick passes not allowing the time for receivers to do their work.

3rd Quarter

15:00 - Surprise onside?

12:56 - Three and out to start for the Vikings, we have a surprisingly defensive game after watching the Saints score in just five plays to start.

10:52 - I'm seeing some good run plays from the Saints right now.  One of the underrated strengths (with Brees getting so much ink and because they didn't have any one guy who was the main running back) for the Saints last year was their running game.

6:13 - Ten-play drives kill a defense.  This one's capped off by a 1-yard Pierre Thomas touchdown plunge.  Vikings 9, Saints 14

5:18 - Get your feet in Malcolm Jenkins.

5:13 - The Vikings are lucky they're punting right now.

3:21 - Three solid plays from the Vikings defense cause three and out: Fat Pat Williams chases down Pierre Thomas--that's a sight--then two solid tackles by Jamarca Sanford and Ben Leber.

2:13 - Collinsworth's been talking about Sedrick Ellis all night and now he gets the sack.  Whenever we mention a defensive lineman by name, he must be doing something right.  Then comes another Vikings' three and out.

0:36 - Since the Saints' touchdown drive, neither team has generated any offense.

0:00 - Vikings 9, Saints 14

4th Quarter

14:51 - Side note: I'm glad Chilly ditched the beard and brought back the mustache.

14:43 - Bryant McKinnie gets carted to the locker room.  That's a big loss, literally and figuratively.

9:10 - After a dropped touchdown catch from Meachem comes a field goal attempt and Garrett Hartley misses again.

8:12 - Greg Camarillo makes his first catch as a Viking.  I've always thought he's a good player, but I just don't know what his role is on this team with Percy Harvin already established as the main slot receiver.  Cris Collinsworth loves him because he's a white wide receiver.

3:42 - I love watching the four minute drill: when you have a lead and have the ball with about four minutes left, and you just drain clock.  This is an area of strength for elite teams.

1:45 - The Saints are in victory formation.

0:00 - Saints win!  The stories of the second half are Brett Favre falling flat and the Saints' renewed commitment to the running game.

0:00 - Welcome back football.  I've missed you so.

Final: Vikings 9, Saints 14

--from Eric