Conference Championships Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Jets at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Packers at Bears	Packers	Packers
	Adam	Eric
Divisional Round Record	2-2	1-3
Divisional Round Points	4	0
Total Points	162	157
Playoff Record	5-3	3-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	153-111	154-110

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

ESPN Line: Steelers by 4

Opening Salvo: Each team is coming off an incredibly emotional win over its most bitter rival.  The Steelers did less talking than the Jets during the week while the Jets felt like the kid brother to New England.  Why does that matter?  Because the Jets poured every ounce of emotion into that game last weekend.  You could just see it.  Bart Scott's insane post game interview, Antonio Cromartie trash talking Tom Brady after the game, Braylon Edwards back flipping, the whole team was jubilant and also relieved.  On the other side, the Steelers expected to beat the Ravens.  Though they had to make a mad comeback, they did what they thought they would.  The Steelers expect to both be in Super Bowls and also win them.  One intangible for the Jets is that they made the AFC Title Game last year.  They know what this game is about, and they certainly don't want to go home losers again.  They also won't fear Ben Roethlisberger after taking out Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks.

When the Steelers Have the Ball: The Jets have built there reputation under Rex Ryan as a blitz-happy, sack the quarterback defense, but their pass rush has been absent much of this year.  Where they truly excel is in pass coverage.  Cromartie is great in man-to-man press coverage, and I believe we will see him matched up on speedster Mike Wallace most of the day.  If there's a guy that can run with Wallace, it's Cromartie.  This will be the type of matchup Cromartie likes.  Wallace doesn't run short crossing routes; he goes deep downfield early and often where Cromartie is most comfortable.  On the other side, get ready for a fist fight between Darrell Revis and Hines Ward.  Revis is the perfect matchup against Ward because he has great balance, terrific ball skills, and is very strong.  Ward won't be able to separate from this guy, and you may see Big Ben really searching for open receivers.  One guy that is hard to account for is Heath Miller.  He is a big body that really knows how to get open, and Roethlisberger loves finding him, especially in the red zone.  The Jets sacked Brady five times last week, but much of that was due to tremendous coverage rather than great pressure.  Playing behind a shoddy offensive line, this week they get Roethlisberger, the hardest quarterback to tackle in the league.  The Jets are stout against the run, allowing only 90 rushing yards per game, but Pittsburgh has to pound the ball as much as possible.   Rashard Mendenhall is a talented back that can break a big run, but I don't know if the Steelers' offensive line can create enough push.   If Roethlisberger throws too often though, he will turn it over; the Jets secondary is just too good.  Advantage: Slightly Jets

When the Jets Have the Ball: Pittsburgh will be eager to improve on the 24 points they allowed last week, and I believe they will.  Mark Sanchez had a great game last week, but we haven't seen him be consistently good yet in his young career.  Still, give credit because he has made two AFC Title Games in two years.  Pittsburgh's most important defensive player, Troy Polamalu, didn't look quite right last week, still nursing a strained achilles tendon.  The Jets have maybe the best offensive line in the league, and Pittsburgh has an incredible pass rush led by James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, with the occasional Polamalu blitz thrown in.  That should be a great matchup.  Pittsburgh is also insanely good against the run, allowing just 63 yards per game during the regular season.  My guess is that the Jets' terrific offensive line will win some battles, and the Steelers tremendous defense will win some too.  Dick LeBeau is a genius defensive coordinator for the Steelers, and I think with young Sanchez at the helm, the Steelers will hone in on the run and force the Jets to pass.  Edwards and former Steeler Santonio Holmes are really nice targets in the passing game.  The question is, will Sanchez find them?  Advantage: Steelers

Special Teams: Brad Smith won't be playing in this game and that makes a difference, though Cromartie has been really dangerous as a substitute return man.  Nick Folk has a strong leg but missed nine field goals in the regular season plus his only try against the Patriots last week.  His inaccuracy is a concern.  Steve Weatherford has been masterful this year at pinning teams deep in their own territory for the Jets, which could be a huge advantage in a game decided by two great defenses.  For the Steelers, Shaun Suisham has been really good, but the playoffs are different beast, and who knows what the kicking game will produce?  Daniel Sepulveda has an impressive 39 yard net punting average.  Advantage: Slightly Jets

Bottom Line: To me, this is a much closer matchup than the NFC Title Game; you can't really go down the list and say definitively who has the advantage in each area.  Roethlisberger represents the biggest advantage over his counterpoint, Sanchez, in this entire game.  I don't put much stock in home field advantage at this point.  The Jets won't be rattled, they are tremendous on the road, and they are a seasoned playoff bunch.  I am really agonizing over this pick, but I think the Steelers played their "B"-minus game last week while the Jets played their "A" game.  I expect that to even out, both defenses to play great, and Big Ben to be the difference in the end.

Prediction: Steelers 19 – Jets 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

ESPN Line: Packers by 4

Opening Salvo: These teams have met twice already this year, and much like last week's AFC matchups, there won't be any secrets in this game.  In the first matchup, the Packers set a team record for most penalties committed and still only lost by 3.  The Bears have struck me all year long as a fortunate team that was slightly more lucky than good.  They faced something like four backup quarterbacks this year.  They also rank 28th in passing yards per game, 22nd in rushing yards per game, and 20th in passing yards allowed per game.  They are very good against the run, but it's not as if the Packers are a running team in the slightest.  Speaking of the Packers, this is one hot team right now that has marched through the best the NFC has to offer in the last four weeks (Giants, Bears, Eagles, Falcons).  Aaron Rodgers is not only playing at an MVP level, he's playing at a robotic perfection-type level.  Every decision, throw, scramble, or audible seems to work perfectly.  In his last four games, which were all essentially playoff games, Rodgers has 11 touchdowns and just 1 interception.

When the Bears Have the Ball: Jay Cutler has been good lately, but you know that turnover-happy pouty face is hiding just under the surface.  He didn't throw any picks in his last game, which means he's essentially a shoo-in to throw it to the wrong team a couple of times this week.  In fact, he should have been picked off early against Seattle, but the defensive back just didn't make the play.  The Bears have really no receivers that strike fear into a defender's heart, especially when you consider the stellar play of Green Bay's defensive backfield.  Tramon Williams is the MVP of the postseason so far, and he's the best corner left in the playoffs not named Revis.  Sam Shields has been really solid lately, and you absolutely aren't going to run past him.  He is the fastest player on the team.  And oh yeah, Pro bowl safety Nick Collins and last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson, are pretty good too.  Woodson has played a rover role the last few weeks with Shields and Williams handling most of the man coverage.  That leaves the ever-dangerous Woodson to ball hawk and blitz, two of his main strengths.  Johnny Knox will be taken away by Williams, but Greg Olsen has to concern Green Bay, who have been burned by tight ends this year.  Still, the Pack allowed future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez just one catch last week.  Additionally, when Cutler drops back to throw, he will be protected by a shoddy offensive line that has improved but is still a weakness.  That's not good news with BJ Raji and Cullen Jenkins penetrating up front, Clay Matthews firing off the edge, and the aforementioned Woodson coming from all angles.  The Bears' offensive line will also be an issue when they try to run the ball, and if Mike Martz is smart, he will call as many runs as possible to avoid turnovers and keep Rodgers off the field.   Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are very good backs, but again, they won't be running through massive holes.  While the Packers can be susceptible to the run, I believe that curtailing the ground game will be priority one for Dom Capers' crew, knowing that if they can force the Bears to throw, they have a tremendous advantage.  Overall the Packers have the scheme and an abundance of playmakers to really disrupt what the Bears want to do.  Capers is going to make a nest inside Cutler's head and stay there all day.  Advantage: Decidedly Packers

When the Packers Have the Ball: At this point there is absolutely nobody you'd rather have under center than Rodgers.  Not only can you trust him to not make the big mistake, but you can count on him to continuously make big plays, escape the rush, and make laser-like throws across the field.  Yes it will be outdoors in swirly Soldier Field, so don't expect another 31/36 and 3 touchdown performance, but do expect another unbelievable day for the People's Champ.  Since Soldier Field is a notoriously clunky and slow playing surface, conditions will not be ideal for the passing game, but Green Bay is no stranger to this field or adverse conditions.  I look at the Packer gameplan in the Wild Card Round against Philadelphia as a blueprint for this coming weekend.  It was cold and nasty and the Pack leaned heavily on a ground game nobody knew they had.  I do not expect James Starks to ring up 123 yards again, but I think he, John Kuhn, and Brandon Jackson should get 25-30 attempts cumulatively and hopefully rack up 90-100 yards, just enough to keep the Bears honest and open up some passing lanes.  The one thing the Bears are great at is run stuffing, so that will be a tall order, but the Packers have to stick with it.  The Packers have the better offensive line between the two teams, but it still isn't great.  Josh Sitton and Chad Clifton have been very good, and Brian Bulaga shows promising flashes and is pretty solid.  Julius Peppers is a gameplan wrecker so I think Mike McCarthy will make him corralling him a focal point.  They need to run directly at Peppers early and often to wear him down, and when they pass, they need to keep a back or tight end in to help block him.  Nobody else on the Bears' defensive line really worries me too much, especially with Rodgers' quick release and escapability.  Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are incredibly smart and tough football players.  They will likely be focused on reading Rodgers, stuffing the run, and playing shallow zone coverage.  The Bears' secondary is decent but nothing more.  They occasionally take big risks, and that could spell trouble against the vertically aggressive Packers.  If Rodgers can get time, he will burn the Bears down field all day.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson are far superior to the men who will be covering them, so offensive line play and Rodgers' decision making will be the key.  Another thing to consider is the masterful play calling of McCarthy on the sideline, who has been dialing up magic all year long.  He and Rodgers are on the same page and it shows.  Advantage: Slightly Packers

Special Teams: Robbie Gould is as reliable a kicker as you are going to find, and this game could come down to field goals.  Mason Crosby has the leg to make any kick, but he is erratic with his accuracy.  Tim Mastay has not been great punting the ball for Green Bay, and this is a game where field position will be at a premium.  Brad Maynard is a solid punter for the Bears and can usually place the ball where he wants to putting 24 punts inside the 20 yard line this year.  Devin Hester is the best return man in the game, and the Packers' coverage units have allowed a lot of big plays this year.  The strategy will be to kick punts away from Hester, hang them high in the air, or just plain kick it out of bounds.  Even if they don't get a great punt off, the Packers have to trust their defense to make a stop rather than rolling the dice with Hester.  Advantage: Decidedly Bears

Bottom Line: Better quarterback-Pack, better defense-Pack, better offensive line-Pack,   better receivers-Pack, better running back-Bears, better special teams-Bears, better coaching staff-Pack.  The Packers have a lot of advantages in this game, especially in the most important areas.  In a game where scheme will be less important because the teams know each other inside and out, it will be up to the players to decide this thing on the field.  Rodgers is brimming with confidence after defeating two teams that were superior to the Bears in my opinion, the Eagles and Falcons.  Additionally, I just don't believe you can trust Cutler to not throw the game away.  Even if he doesn't, I don't think the Bears can put up enough points to win against a defense playing at an all time high level.  This is a bad matchup for the Bears, and the only way they will keep this division rivalry close is through special teams.  The Packers must simply avoid the land mines of Hester and Julius.  If they can minimize the impact of those two individuals, this should be a comfortable win for Green Bay.

Prediction: Packers 26 – Bears 16