AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 

Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 

Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 

Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 

Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Pittsburgh Steelers
 

Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 

Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 

Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 

The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 

The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 

Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 

Cleveland Browns
 

This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 

Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 

The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 

Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 

Cincinnati Bengals
 

The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 

Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 

Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 

AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 

The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 

Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 

Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 

This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 

Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore corner situation last year held back what could have been another excellent defense.  Also, it’s probably what stopped them from making the Super Bowl.  With their top pick, the Ravens made a big splash by drafting the mega-talented Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado).  There were off the field concerns about him, but I don’t usually buy into that stuff, especially not with Ray Lewis leading the locker room.  Athletically Smith is on the level of Patrick Peterson, the undisputed best prospect in the draft.  At 6’2”, 210 pounds, Smith runs a 4.42 40-yard dash.  With the speed to stay with any receiver, Smith also is a physical corner that tackles very well.  He is an instant impact player for the Baltimore defense at a huge area of need.

In the next round the Ravens addressed their second-biggest need with a player that could have gone in the first round.  Maryland’s Torrey Smith is a talented, speedy receiver that can complement the bruising possession man Anquan Boldin.  Finally Baltimore’s offense feels complete: a good quarterback in Joe Flacco, a great running back in Ray Rice, and a bevy of wideouts, which now includes a true deep threat.  Productive last year and with good size at 6’1”, 205 pounds, Torrey Smith can run by many NFL corners and will be a perfect fit for Flacco’s great deep ball.

Central Florida offensive tackle Jah Reid was drafted because Jared Gaither may be out the door in free agency this year.  At 6’7” and 330 pounds, he has a great frame for the tackle position and won’t be moved by bull rushes.  Reid needs to work on mechanics, but he has the talent for the position.  In a year or two he may be ready to start.

If Torrey Smith was their deep threat, Tandon Doss (WR, Indiana) was their possession receiver in this draft.  Doss is a big target—6’2”, 200 pounds—who lacks top-end speed but has great hands and likes to go over the middle.

In the fifth round Baltimore nabbed another cover man from Texas (How many damn corners does Texas have?) Chykie Brown.  Fast, agile, and smooth, Brown is a really talented in coverage, but he tends to get overpowered by bigger receivers.  He could be a great fit as a nickel corner.

The Ravens also took a sixth round flyer on Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor.  Who knows what he will be?

I love the pick of Jimmy Smith, a Pro Bowl talent.  Torrey Smith fits a big-time need as a deep threat and is a solid receiver overall.  Reid is a talented offensive tackle that fits a need, but he won’t be ready for a while.  Providing Flacco help to truly thrive is hugely important, so adding a second receiver, Doss, was a nice strategy.  In addition to Jimmy Smith, Brown can help in coverage right away too.  The Ravens’ biggest needs were targets for Flacco and help in the secondary, and they got four players that can all help right away, so I loved their draft.

The quarterback, running back, offensive line, and front seven are very good.  If this rookie class can come in and do what I think they can, they could push Baltimore to a championship.

Grade: A

Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer is not walking through that door, and to me, I’m not sure why the Bengals are holding on to him like grim death.  His best days are behind him, and if Cincinnati can get value for him, trading him seems like a good move.  I know trades can’t be made right now, but the Bengals have repeatedly stated that they will not trade Palmer.

More on that situation in a second, but now onto their first pick, Georgia wideout AJ Green.  Comparisons to Calvin Johnson are not unfounded; he’s a spectacular leaper with great size at 6’4” and 211 pounds.  Though not currently overly physical, Green could add ten pounds of muscle to his long frame without losing much speed, which he has plenty of, running a 4.4 40-yard dash.  He makes an immediate impact as a deep threat and red zone target.

In the second round, the Bengals picked a guy I can’t quite wrap my head around: Andy Dalton (QB, TCU).  The best way I can describe him is that he has first round smarts and fourth round skills.  He’s accurate without a huge arm, but he can make most NFL throws.  In addition, he’s smallish for a quarterback, just 6’2” and 215 pounds.  But hey, Drew Brees is 6’ tall and is among the top-5 quarterbacks in the league.

All of the negatives about Dalton worry me because they remind me of Alex Smith.  Dalton will probably be the starter from Day One, and though his arm isn’t a howitzer, he’s smart enough to pick up an NFL system rapidly.  He struggles getting the ball deep downfield and does not have tremendous mobility.  Plus, he came from a spread offense at TCU, which typically does not prepare quarterbacks for NFL success.

Dalton signals a revamping of the culture in Bengals football, and I don’t mean this to sound like coded bigotry.  Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco—both unlikely to return to the team—aren’t thugs at all; they’re mostly decent guys but they incessantly crave attention.  They distract from the task at hand: winning football games.

In the third round the Bengals addressed their need for a pass rush threat by getting a great athlete in Nevada’s Dontay Mach.  Probably destined to be a situational player, with 4.4 flat speed and a 245-pound frame, Mach has the all physical skills to get to the quarterback.

Clint Boling (OG, Georgia) was a solid pick in the fourth round.  After starting four years in SEC—you know how much I like that—he’ll come in ready for a physical pounding.  Though not a great athlete for the position, Boling is the type of guy who could start this year and be solid, though he may never be great.

A really talented free safety from West Virginia, Robert Sands, came to the Bengals in the fifth.  A 6’4”, 217-pound thumper, sometimes Sands tries to lay people out too much and misses tackles.  He has good speed, and his length is an advantage in breaking up jump balls.

In the sixth round the Bengals nabbed (gasp) a white receiver from Stanford, Ryan Whalen.  Though not a good athlete, Whalen is strong with good hands and should be able to get off the line.  His ceiling is a solid possession receiver, and his basement is not making the team.

AJ Green is an immense talent, one of the most surefire prospects in the draft, who with Owens and Ochocinco out the door, fills a huge need.  Dalton was probably the best choice available in the second round since Palmer has to be replaced, and if nothing else, he will be a solid starter in this league.  Also consider the smarts and leadership he brings to the locker room.  Moch certainly has the physical skills to become a feared pass rusher, but coming from Nevada we’ll have to see how he fares against much stronger competition.  Boling is a pick I love because I think you’re getting a steady starter for the next 5-10 years, not great, but a guy you don’t worry about, unlike Andre Smith.  Sands has big-time potential at safety but plays wild, and Whalen may or may not make the squad.  They filled needs, got one of the best players in the draft, and brought in solid people like Boling and Dalton, so I think Cincy did pretty well for themselves.

Grade: B+

Cleveland Browns

The Browns only won five games last year, but they were a tough out for most everyone they played.  Not overly stocked with talent, they were gritty and had a formula that showed promise.

I think not picking a quarterback was the best thing they did this draft.  With no guaranteed passing prospects available, they were right to give Colt McCoy another year to progress.

With their first pick they drafted the jettisoned Shaun Rogers’ replacement, Baylor nose guard Phil Taylor.  A monster against the run that can occupy two blockers, the 6’4”, 340-pound Taylor still needs to learn the game and get better technique-wise, but he has the ability to be a dominant force.

Pittsburgh’s Jabal Sheard played more defensive end in college, but he’s clearly going to transition to 3-4 outside linebacker in Cleveland.  He has great athleticism, running a 4.68 40-yard dash, and has good size at 6’3” and 265 pounds.  Sheard’s 9 sacks last year in college showed superb pass rush ability.

I felt that Greg Little (WR, North Carolina) was a reach late in the second round, but he does possess tremendous size at 6’3” and 230 pounds.  For such a large frame, running a 4.51 40 is plenty fast, but this guy has a lot to learn and needs to really refine his game.  A big-time talent, it’s a 50/50 proposition if he pans out, and he probably won’t be ready to make an impact this year.

USC’s Jordan Cameron is a very talented tight end to get in the fourth round.  He has soft hands, 4.5 speed, and runs good routes, and he can help right away as a middle of the field target.

The versatile Owen Marecic was a half back and full back at Stanford and was another Cleveland's fourth round picks.  This talented player will make an instant impact as a lead blocker, a receiver, and running back.

They really bolstered their front seven with Taylor and Sheard, which I loved.  Little was a reach, but in the second round he was a decent pick considering his potential ceiling as a dominant, physical force.  Or he could be an athlete that can’t figure out the game and we'll never hear from again.  Cameron will help McCoy right away as a security blanket in the red zone/middle of the field.  He also has some explosive, deep threat ability for a tight end.  Marecic is the type of player you love because he can help in so many ways—running, blocking, receiving, special teams—and he’s smart.

The only thing I thought the Browns needed to do was get even more help for McCoy, though Cameron and Little are guys with big potential.  The Browns have a good offensive line, running game, and spent high picks on the secondary last year.  So clearly skilled receivers and front seven help was the order of the day, and they addressed those needs very well.

Grade: A-

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of weaknesses; that’s fairly obvious considering they are the defending AFC Champs.

With their first pick they get a guy in Cameron Heyward (DL, Ohio State) who fits in perfectly with their 3-4 scheme.  Pittsburgh is strong but aging along their defensive front, and Heyward adds a dynamic talent that can enter the rotation immediately.

Offensive line may have been a bigger need, but they may get better at that spot just by getting healthy.  Plus, they addressed the line with their second round pick.  Florida tackle Marcus Gilbert is an absolute mammoth that played a ton in college and has the talent to start immediately.  If nothing else, he will be a good backup right away and can develop into a good starter down the road.

With their next pick, the Steelers continued to address their top needs by grabbing the Texas cornerback Curtis Brown.  Exposed by the Packer passing game in the Super Bowl, upgrading the Pittsburgh secondary was a high priority.   Sticky in man coverage, Brown is a talented player who could have gone in the second round.  He has a lot to learn though, foremost how to tackle.

The Citadel’s Cortez Allen, another corner, was a reach even in the fourth, but he does address the corner need.  We just will have to wait to see if he pans out.

Nabbing outside linebacker Chris Carter in the fifth round was a steal; he should have gone in the third round.  In Carter the Steelers drafted a raw, talented athlete to develop and eventually replace James Harrison.  Who better to learn under than Harrison and Lamar Woodley for a young pass rusher? 

Overall I like that the Steelers went strictly for addressing needs.  They probably could have used some help at the skill positions (particularly a replacement for aging Hines Ward) but they upgraded their defensive and offensive lines with their first two picks.  They also added two corners to what was a weak coverage unit last year, and I think at least Curtis Brown can make an instant impact.  Carter was a big talent to get in the fifth that can be groomed to continue the tradition of pass rushing linebackers in the Steel City.  The Steelers aren’t far away from winning it all again, so what they needed to do was get players that can instantly improve their few weaknesses, and that’s just what they did.

Grade: B

--from @AdamHocking

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens

#25 Seattle Seahawks

What They Need: Talent-wise, this team should be picking in the top ten of the draft.  Unfortunately for Seattle, they won the pathetic NFC West, and then shocked the defending champion Saints, only to fall in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, which lands them the twenty-fifth pick in this year’s draft.  Needs are abundant on this roster.  They probably could do with a young quarterback to develop as Matt Hasselbeck is aging and has had multiple injuries.  Running back is okay with Marshawn Lynch as their feature back, but they could use another talented player in the backfield.  Mike Williams had a great comeback year at wide receiver, but he’s their only true threat on the perimeter, and I’m not sure he’s a number one-caliber wideout.  Russell Okung was very good at left tackle for Seattle last year when healthy, Chris Spencer is a solid center, and Shaun Locklear is serviceable at right tackle.  The guard spots aren’t all that strong, and adding a young right tackle would be a wise investment.  Defensively the Seahawks sorely need help in their front four.  Those guys just don’t make a lot of impact plays.  Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry form a talented and athletic combo at linebacker that Seattle can build around.  Earl Thomas is going to be a star at safety, Marcus Trufant is a good cover corner, and Kelly Jennings is a reasonably solid cover man.  They could use another dynamic player in the secondary, but they have bigger needs.

Who They Might Pick: Since this team knows they are in transition, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took a quarterback here.  Building the offensive line is a good thought, but that’s more of a move to support the current quarterback, and I think Seattle might be looking toward the future.  If Seattle targets a signal caller, the three guys they could look at here are Jake Locker (Washington), Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) and Cristian Ponder (Florida State).  If they look for offensive line help, they could look at tackle, though I’m not sure any of the top prospects will be left at this point in the draft.  Nate Solder or Derrick Sherrod might still be on the board and could be solid fits at the right tackle spot.  Mike Pouncey would be a great value here and could start at guard immediately for Seattle.  Danny Watkins, a guard from Baylor, would be another good pick.  If the Seahawks look at defense here, the pick should come on the defensive line.  Muhammad Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, or Stephen Paea would be good selections at defensive tackle.  Ryan Kerrigan could still be around and would add a nice pass rushing element at defensive end.  Cameron Heyward, JJ Watt, Adrian Clayborn, and Cameron Jordan could all fill multiple positions along the defensive front.

My Advice: There are some good quarterbacks that should be available in the second round or later this year: Andy Dalton from TCU, Colin Kaepernick from Nevada, Ricky Stanzi from Iowa, Greg McElroy from Alabama, and perhaps Ponder.  Unless they fall in love with Mallet or Locker, I think they should go defense with this pick and try to build around the promising nucleus of Thomas, Curry, and Tatupu.  Muhammad Wilkerson, the defensive tackle from Temple, would be an excellent value at this point in the draft and should be the Seahawks’ pick.  He improves a glaring need in the middle of Seattle’s defense.  At 6’4”, 315 pounds he has great size, good athleticism, and quick feet.  He can be a force in the run game and push the pocket to create pass rush.

For the twenty-fifth pick, the Seattle Seahawks take Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple.

#26 Baltimore Ravens

What They Need: For what seems like the last ten years this team has relied on a stifling defense and an offense that was always inconsistent or up-and-coming but never fully competent.  Now though, that defense is really starting to age.  Ray Lewis will not be able to play for much longer, though he is still a high-level linebacker.  Ed Reed played very well last year but nearly retired before last season because of his cumulative injuries.  The corner spot is weak, and that showed for most of last year.  Haloti Ngata is a monster in the trenches but could use some help from his linemates.  Terrence Cody might be nothing more than a massive body; he didn’t do much last year as a rookie, but we’ll wait and see what kind of nose tackle he can become.  Terrell Suggs is a truly dynamic pass rusher but could use another guy to create pressure opposite him.  On offense, Joe Flacco has been good, though I think he has plateaued in his development.  He’s good but not great, and I think that’s where he’ll stay.  Ray Rice is one of the best six or seven all around running backs in the league.  The offensive line is a really strong young unit with Ben Grubbs, Michael Oher, and Jared Gaither.  Anquan Boldin is a great possession receiver, and young tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are promising targets in the middle of the field.  Another dynamic receiver could really complete this offense.

Who They Might Pick: Defensively they need help on the front line, another edge rushing linebacker, and at corner.  On offense they really just need another big play wide receiver.  I think this pick will probably come on the defensive line because this year’s draft is deep with 3-4-style linemen and not so much with edge rushers, corners, or receivers.  Heyward and Clayborn could easily still be on the board here.  Jimmy Smith might be available at corner, and if not, I could see the Ravens reaching for cover men like Aaron Williams (Texas), Brandon Harris (Miami), or Davon House (New Mexico State) because it is such a big need.  Receivers are not all that plentiful in this year’s draft, so I think Baltimore will be content to wait until the second or third round to nab a wideout.

My Advice: Adrian Clayborn is a monster against the run and is just a solid all-around player who fits perfectly with the Ravens’ gritty style.  Coming from the Big Ten, Clayborn will be used to taking on massive blockers.  He will help relieve pressure on Ngata, keep blockers off of Lewis, and might even support Suggs in the pass rush department.

With the twenty-sixth selection, the Baltimore Ravens pick Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.

--from Adam

(first image from owlified.net, second from nepatriotsdraft.com)

Who’s Feeling Super?

It's late enough in the season now that we know who should be competing for a championship, and who is waiting for next year.  With that in mind, I wanted to develop a few criteria for winning in the playoffs and rank the contenders accordingly.  We don't yet know who will have home field advantage so that won't be part of the ranking system.  The factors that will weigh in are:

The Quarterback: This is not just a productive passer, but a guy that has that innate knack for moving his team down the field late in games, especially when the pocket breaks down and something must be made of nothing.  There are plenty of good pocket passers in the league, but in the playoffs where the weather is often ugly and the defenses are very good, your signal caller must be able to create some magic.

Running Game/Offensive Line: You have to be able to at least threaten the opposition with a running game, because if you can't, opposing defenses can just tee off on the quarterback.  The offensive line has to create some holes and wear down the defense so that the play action pass is a factor.  The offensive line also has to be sound in pass protection because the quarterback is the head of the snake, and if you cut off the head, the body dies.

Kicking Game: Most games in the postseason come down to field position and field goal kicking.  If you have a guy that is consistent from 45 yards and in and can make the occasional long shot, you have a significant advantage.  If you don't, then you have to change your game plan, take more risks, and will miss valuable point opportunities.

Pass Rush/Secondary: These units work in unison; the more pressure you can put on a quarterback and the better your coverage is, the more turnovers, mistakes, and three-and-outs your defense can cause.

Run Stuffers: If you clog the run consistently and force teams to throw the ball more than they want, you have a good chance of creating turnovers and winning the time of possession battle.

Coaching: What teams need is a coach that can keep players focused on assignment football, rather than the enormous stage of the postseason.  Winning individual matchups and exploiting mismatches is how you win football games no matter when or where they are played.  Managing the game—time outs, play calling, challenges, and personnel packages—is also vital, and you must have a competent, organized, and efficient head coach to keep things moving on schedule.

The AFC Contenders

Most Important Patriot: Danny Woodhead

New England Patriots 

The Quarterback: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are the most clutch players in the league.  While Brady won't make as many plays with his legs, he completely locks it in late in the game.  He will find a way to move his team when it matters, and his accuracy is unparalleled in late game situations.  His short passing game carves up defenses when they back off the coverage.  Who would you rather have than a guy with three Super Bowl rings? 

Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: Danny Woodhead is all about making a single cut and getting up the field.  He has incredible lateral quickness, and he rarely takes a big hit.  He has great elusiveness in small spaces, and has a knack for squeezing out an extra yard or two on most plays.  The offensive line has been very solid, especially protecting Brady for their rhythm passing game.  They have also been solid opening holes for Woodhead and the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Since filling in for the injured Stephen Gostkowski, Shane Graham has made all five of his attempts.  Despite the small sample size in New England, Graham has been around a while and is an 86% career kicker, so I think the Pats are in pretty good hands, or should I say, feet.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Pats have the youngest defense in the NFL, and it shows.  Their corners have been shaky all year and they rarely get much pressure on the passer.  Their only saving grace is the defensive brilliance of Bill Belichick.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: Two words: Vince Wilfork.  You can't move him, and he can be dominant when he wants to.  The linebackers are strong and athletic so they can be good in the run, but smart teams will take advantage of their youth and aggressive play.  Jerod Mayo is an All Pro candidate this year.
Rating: 8

Coaching: The hoodie is the best in the business.  He knows exactly how to exploit his opponents' weaknesses and cover his own.
Rating: 10

Overall Score: 50

It's Gotta be the Hair

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Quarterback: Roethlisberger takes a back seat to no one in terms of playing great in big games and creating big plays out of nothing.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Steelers get points for the good play of running back Rashard Mendenhall.  He is a bruising and electric back that can punish a defense.  Unfortunately, the Steelers have significant injuries along their offensive front and have been inconsistent at both protecting Roethlisberger and creating holes in the run game.
Rating: 6

Kicking Game: The Steelers cut Jeff Reed after his inconsistent performance and now rely on Shaun Suisham.  He was 2/2 against Baltimore, but prior to being picked up by Pittsburgh, there was a reason he was out of a job.  I can't trust him until he makes more pressure kicks.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and Troy Polamalu all get after the quarterback and the secondary is solid.  Coverage doesn't have to be air tight when the quarterback is constantly harassed by the blitz.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: Pittsburgh is still very good in this category with Casey Hampton, Ziggy Hood, and Brett "The Diesel" Keisel eating up blocks for the aforementioned linebacking corps, but they will miss Aaron Smith who is out for the year.
Rating: 9

Coaching: Mike Tomlin always has this team play well in big games, and has already claimed a Super Bowl title.  He is very disciplined as a head coach and expects the same from his players.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 48

Floats like a Butterfly, Stings like a Semi Truck

Baltimore Ravens 

The Quarterback: I like Joe Flacco.  He is very good in the pocket, has a great downfield arm, and is pretty accurate.  He does miss some short throws however, and will he is a calm player, he can be stiff in the pocket and doesn't have the athletic ability to create something out of nothing.  Late in the game, I don't see him making plays by himself to bail out his team.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, and LeRon McClain represent a bruising and versatile backfield trio.  Rice is the best of the bunch and can do anything on the field.  He catches passes, blocks, and is a superb runner.  The offensive line is very physical with Michael Oher, Ben Grubbs, and Marshall Yanda all playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Billy Cundiff has been very good so far this year, going 5/6 from 40-49 yards and 19/22 overall.  He is a reliable option that you expect to make most kicks.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The corners are suspect, but Ed Reed erases a lot of mistakes on the back end.  Still, against good passing teams, those corners will get exposed.  Terrell Suggs can be unblockable, ditto for Halogti Ngata, also Ray Lewis if he comes on the blitz.  Jarret Johnson has played very solid ball for the Ravens as well.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Ngata is clearly one of the league's most difficult players to block, and Lewis is a tackling machine.  Baltimore hasn't ranked all that high against the run this year, but I trust them to ramp it up come playoff time.
Rating: 8

Coaching: John Harbaugh has done a terrific job with Baltimore, turning them into a much more potent offense while maintaining their swagger and aggressiveness on defense.  He makes sound game decisions and is unflappable.  He has schemed well to make up for Baltimore's main weakness, their corner play.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 47

Like Always, Going as Far as Sanchez

New York Jets 

The Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has had both brilliant and bonehead moments in equal measure thus far in his young career.  Sometimes he misses very easy throws, and ultimately his inconsistency permeates this whole offense.  I don't trust him to be good in consecutive playoff games.
Rating: 6.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Jets have the best offensive line in football.  They protect Sanchez well and blow open holes for talented backs Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson.  If the Jets remember that they are a run-first team, they can beat anyone.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Nick Folk has been incredibly erratic, making just 23/32 field goals.  For a team that wants to grind out victories, this is going to be a problem.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Jets have actually struggled lately getting to the passer, but Antonio Cromartie is having an All Pro caliber year.  Darelle Revis has been slowed by injury but has regained top form in recent weeks.  The season-ending injury to Jim Leonhard takes a smart player and punishing hitter away, not to mention the team's punt returner, and that will hurt.  Still, the corners are excellent and New York's blitz packages are very confusing for opponents.
Rating: 8.5

Run Stuffers: The Jets' priority is to stop the run and make teams pass against them, figuring that pass heavy means turnovers for Gang Green.  They've been solid against the run, but big Kris Jenkins was lost for the season early on, and without him, they don't have a dominant inside presence.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Rex Ryan keeps his team very confident, but sometimes I think he gets them too worked up about things that have nothing to do with football.  Scheme is going to beat motivation in the postseason because everyone is motivated.  Ryan is too blustery at times, and it can be a distraction.  He is a very smart defensive mind and lets the offense do its own thing, so he can be a very effective X's and O's coach.  The question is will he focus on the game or the media?
Rating: 7

Overall Rating: 45

The NFC Contenders

6-0 at Home and Primed for a #1 Seed

Atlnta Falcons 

The Quarterback: Matt Ryan has been accurate and smart all year long.  He is never the reason the Falcons lose, and is often the main reason they win.  He's led numerous fourth quarter game-winning drives this year.  His willingness to stay in the pocket and look down the field, coupled with his accuracy, make every receiver a threat.  His only deficit is his lack of mobility, which is not to say that he doesn't have good feet in the pocket, he's just not much of a threat to extend the play once it breaks down.  Having Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, Roddy White as a big play threat, and Michael Turner toting the rock doesn't hurt either.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: Turner and Jason Snelling are really a load to deal with for defenses.  Both are big, punishing backs, and Turner is one of the best overall runners in the league.  The offensive line has been together for a long time now, and the same five starts every game.  They are balanced and have a nasty demeanor.  Though no single player on the line grabs headlines, together, this is one of the best units in the league.
Rating: 10

Kicking Game: Matt Bryant has been rock solid this year and will likely go to the Pro Bowl if he continues his great work.  Kicking in the dome helps his cause, and the Falcons may be playing at home all the way to the Super Bowl.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Falcons have talent on the defense with John Abraham bringing the heat off the edge and Dunta Robinson serving as a good number one cornerback.  The defense is young in spots but has played well as a unit.  They don't terrorize quarterbacks or shut down opponents' passing games, but they are good enough to complement a very good offense.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: The Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed mostly thanks to aggressive linebacker Curtis Lofton and a defensive front that rotates a lot of different players.  Kroy Biermann is a very talented player that can play end or tackle.  Still, I don't view them as a team you simply can't run against.
Rating: 7

Coaching: I love Mike Smith's demeanor.  He is so calm and solid, and when you combine his management with Ryan's serenity under pressure, you have very strong leadership at the head of your football team.  Smith always seems to have his team ready to go from the opening kickoff, and he really maximizes the strengths of his team with the game plan he implements.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 49

The One Man Offense

Green Bay Packers 

The Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers' productivity cannot be questioned.  Still, I have concerns about him in the playoffs.  He does hold the ball too long at times, he will likely be forced to play in bad weather, and he has no running game to take some pressure off his shoulders.  However, he has great mobility, can pick up yards with his legs, and can make any throw on the field.  I don't have the same feel with Rodgers as I do with Roethlisberger or Brady in terms of just finding a way to move the ball late in games, but that could all change with a nice playoff run this year.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: James Starks had a nice debut against the 49ers; the Packers need another running back that can do something.  Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn just aren't going to instill fear in any defense.  The offensive line is not great, but they are leaps and bounds better than last year.  Josh Sitton is a bear, Bryan Bulaga is playing really well for a rookie, and Chad Clifton is playing as good as ever.
Rating: 6.5

Kicking Game: Mason Crosby has the leg strength to make any field goal in any weather.  He also has the lack of accuracy to miss any field goal at any time.  I don't trust the man.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Clay Matthews has slowed down a bit in the middle of the year, but he is still a maniac coming off the edge.  Cullen Jenkins has amazingly registered 7 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end.  Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams have rightly been mentioned as the best corner duo in football, and Nick Collins is a dynamic player at safety.  They have had some injuries in the secondary, but are still a very strong group.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: B.J. Raji is an immovable object in the middle, and when joined by Ryan Pickett and Jenkins, you have the beefiest front three in football.  If healthy, this group is superb.
Rating: 9

Coaching: I think Mike McCarthy outsmarts himself sometimes, but he is an excellent offensive mind and he uses his plethora of receivers very well.  I wish he would mix in the run more, but I can't really blame him considering his lack of talent at the running back position.  Dom Capers has this defense playing free and fast; the players really seem to understand their roles this year.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 48

Run to Daylight

New York Giants 

The Quarteback: Eli Manning gets clutch points for winning a Super Bowl.  Still, he can be stiff in the pocket and really lacks the ability to make a play once the original play breaks down.  He can be inaccurate and has been interception prone this year.
Rating: 7.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are a really frightening duo.  The Giants' offensive line is very good when healthy, but they've been banged up all year.
Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Lawrence Tynes has been really solid this year, but I question his leg strength and his cool under pressure.  Still, he has been good throughout his career and I can't downgrade him too much.
Rating: 7.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Justin Tuck is a force against the run and pass.  The Giants' safeties play aggressively and make a lot of plays in the run game.  The linebackers are solid.  They have depth, talent and size up front on the defensive line.  The Giants' corners are solid and don't give up big plays.  The Giants allow the second least passing yards per game in the NFL.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: The Giants are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.  Their entire defense plays the run; even their secondary will make plays in the backfield.  If they can stay healthy, the Giants have a defense that can carry them a long way.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Tom Coughlin knows how to win in January, and he has the type of team to do it: a strong armed passer, two good running backs, and a balanced defense that does everything well.  Coughlin won't step outside of himself and won't allow his team to get unfocused.  He has a plan and will go down swinging with it if he has to.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Sedrick Ellis: Linchpin of Saints' Swarming D

New Orleans Saints 

The Quarterback: Drew Brees hasn't had his best season, but he is still as good as there is in the NFL.  His accuracy is incredible, and the only reason he's thrown more interceptions this year is because his running game has been hit with injuries.  Brees is so smart and moves immaculately in the pocket.  He operates well in pressure and hurry up situations.  Bottom line, you want this guy leading your team in the fourth quarter.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Saints rank 25^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game.  Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have both been banded up, which has given undrafted rookie Chris Ivory an opportunity to handle running back duties.  When they're healthy, the Saints can run the ball, but they haven't been thus far.  The offensive line has talent but hasn't played at the same level as last year.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: Garrett Hartley has a strong leg, but sometimes the ball comes off his foot like the ball stumbles out of my hand when I throw lefty; it's not pretty.  You can almost see Hartley psych himself out at times.  Still, he made the kick to send this team to the Super Bowl a season ago, so he gets some credit.  John Carney is also a solid backup option.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Saints are third best in passing yards allowed in the entire NFL.  They have an aggressive scheme where blitzes emanate from all over, and they have ball hawking corners in Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter.  Sedrick Ellis is a pass rush presence in the middle of the defensive line, and the Will Smith/Charles Grant bookend duo can pressure quarterbacks as well.
Rating: 8

Run Stuffers: The Saints are decent against the run, but I think if you can get a lead and establish a foothold in the ground game, you could really gash them.  They don't have great depth or size in the front seven.
Rating: 6.5

Coaching: It's hard to argue with the creating genius and daring of Sean Payton.  He opened the second half of the Super Bowl with an onside kick; that's testicular fortitude.  He also designs one of the most imposing and complex passing games in the NFL.  He has Gregg Williams to largely control the defense, so he can focus on offense.  He is completely in tune with Brees and the pulse of his team.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Are you experienced

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Quarterback: Michael Vick has been Superman this year and deserves MVP consideration.  Still, even though he has been great passing the ball, his legs make him the threat that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.  I think Vick's scrambling abilities could be neutralized in the cold, nasty playoff weather, and that could ultimately make him less effective as a passer.  His receivers are speed merchants, but aren't great at going across the middle and moving the chains.
Rating: 8

Running Game/Offensive Line: Andy Reid has never liked running the ball, but with LeSean McCoy, he owes it to himself to pound the run.  The line has improved throughout the year, but it can still be dreadful at times.  Running the ball could help this line gain traction, but Reid likes to keep the ball in the air.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: David Akers is as reliable kicker as there is in the league.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: Trent Cole is a beast off the edge, and Asante Samuel is at his gambling best in the playoffs.  Juqua Parker can get after the passer as well, and the Nate Allen/Quentin Mikel safety duo has been really good this year.
Rating: 7.5

Run Stuffers: The Eagles are a little undersized in their front seven with smallish defensive tackles and quick linebackers like Ernie Sims.  A team with a physical offensive line and bruising backs could really hurt the Eagles.
Rating: 7

Coaching: Reid has been in tons of playoff games, and he consistently has his team play well.  His only drawback is his lack of success in the NFC Championship Game, in which he is 1-4.
Rating: 8.5

Overall Rating: 47

Can he keep it in his pants for the playoffs?

Chicago Bears

The Quarterback: Yes, he can make all the throws, but far too often Jay Cutler throws to the wrong team.  He can be inaccurate, immature, and petulant.  He is not a good leader, he doesn't extend the play well despite good mobility, and he has only average talent at wide receiver.  He's played better this year, but in the postseason, I just can't trust him.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Matt Forte is very talented and versatile, and Chester Taylor can do it all as a second back.  The problem is that the Bears have the NFL's worst offensive line.
Rating: 5

Kicking Game: Robbie Gould is a very solid and accurate kicker, one of the best in the business.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Bears don't get the quarterback a ton, but Julius Peppers is a guy that opponents have to game plan for.  The secondary doesn't have a single great player, but they work well together, tackle, and don't give up big plays.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Peppers has shown good strength against the run this year.  Israel Idonije is a very athletic and large mammal that is disruptive against the run and pass.  Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are terrific at sniffing out the play and flowing to the ball.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Lovie Smith is solid at coaching his defense, but I don't sense that he has total command of his team, or that he understands the game at a genius level like Belichick.  Mike Martz has done a good job of keeping himself in check this year by running the ball at least some and using tight ends and backs in pass protection.  Still, I think the Martz offense is a bad fit for ugly weather playoff games.
Rating: 6

Overall Rating: 42

The Final Rankings

1. New England Patriots (50 points)
2. Atlanta Falcons (49 points)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (48 Points) – With a tie at 48 points, I put the Steelers ahead of Green Bay because of Roethlisberger's playoff pedigree and the Steelers' dominant defense.
4. Green Bay Packers (48 points)
5. Baltimore Ravens (47 points) – Eagles, Giants, Saints, Ravens all scored 47 points on the playoff scale.  The Ravens rank highest out of the group because of their experience on defense and their balance on offense.
6. New York Giants (47 points) – They're ahead of Philly because they are stronger in the running game and on defense, and I think Vick will be less effective in the playoffs.  They're also ahead of New Orleans for some of the same reasons, plus, the Saints likely won't be playing many home games in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Saints (47points) – They're ahead of Philly because I like the Saints' offensive line and I trust Brees to be accurate in any environment.  They also will get healthier at running back.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (47 Points)
9. New York Jets (45 points)
10. Chicago Bears (42 points)

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com except Georgia Dome image, which came from instituteofhigherthinking.com)