AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking

NBA Finals 2011: Dirk Gets His Ring, and We Need a New Name for the King

LeBron James (or a lack thereof) may be the story that has everyone salivating, but I refuse to believe discussing the Mavericks first is burying the lead.  They won the championship, and to the victor go the spoils, a.k.a. the first portion of my column.

What we saw all postseason from the Mavs was incredible team play: fluid ball movement, perfect defensive rotations, and endless depth, so many ways to score and win games.  Dirk Nowitzki was the focal point, but his willingness to trust his teammates—combined with his offensive arsenal—made the Maverick attack doubly potent.  It also wore out the Miami Heat, whose legs failed them in Game Six.  There was simply too much pressure on the great three players of the Heat to beat the very good nine players of the Mavericks.

I can’t help loving this championship as if I were a Dallas fan.  So many characters on this team have waited and waited and waited for their chance to get a ring, and now they have it.

The Mavericks have been at least a 50-win team for the past eleven straight seasons, yet never felt like a serious threat to win a title because we all believed they were nothing more than a regular season force that would fold come playoff time.  All the labels we applied over the years—Nowitzki was too soft, Jason Kidd was too old, Mark Cuban was too loud, Jason Terry wasn’t a good enough second scorer, Shawn Marion was over the hill, Peja Stojakovic missed his chance years ago—came to be NBA gospel, and the absolute truth was that this team would never have what it takes to claim the ultimate prize.  Consider all those labels, all those notions, and all that doubt cleansed by the power of this championship.

Nowitzki now takes his seat at the head table of all-time greats; I can’t say where exactly, but he’s at the table.  Averaging 28 points and 8 rebounds a game this postseason, Dirk carried his team past the trendy upset pick Trailblazers, the two-time defending champion Lakers, the young gun Thunder, and the superstar-laden Heat.  (Side note, I picked Dallas to lose all four of those series, so clearly I know what I’m talking about.)

Spreading the Love, Jason Kidd finally got his ring at age 38, and Shawn Marion can call himself a champion after coming close a number of times with both the Suns and Mavericks.  Rick Carlisle proved himself as one hell of a coach after he gameplanned circles around his counterparts in Nate McMillan, Phil Jackson, Scotty Brooks, and Erik Spoelstra.

The most refreshing thing about this Mavericks group is that they defined the word “team” at every crucial moment.  They made numerous double-digit, fourth quarter comebacks throughout these playoffs by trusting each other, remaining patient in the face of immense pressure, and believing that over the course of 48 minutes, their plan would work.  I haven’t seen a team before with this level of chemistry, trust, and genuine love for one another.  Team trumped talent in these finals, and that is extremely reassuring considering the talk of superstar trios dominating the NBA landscape.

And now, due perhaps to our own perverse love for seeing Goliath fall, I turn my attention to what many of you may be most interested in, the Miami Heat.  From this embarrassing beginning to a classless end in which Dwyane Wade and LeBron James mocked Nowitzki’s sickness, the Heat made it virtually impossible to fully appreciate their immense talent.  Even though I have never personally liked James, I wanted to watch this team play well.  I wanted to see what having two of the best three players in the world could be, and yet this team never fully meshed offensively.

By defeating the Celtics and Bulls in tough, gritty, clutch fashion I truly believed that James had turned the corner from great regular season player to postseason maestro.  Boy was I wrong.  LeBron’s passivity, in the last three games of this series especially, was astonishing, vividly reminiscent of last season’s playoffs when he mentally checked out against the Boston Celtics.  In this series James literally never looked at the rim in the fourth quarter, always passing the ball off as if he was playing hot potato.  His issues were so clearly mental that you wonder if a visit with Dr. Phil is in order.

After averaging 27 points per contest this season, James became a shell of himself, scoring just 15 points per game over the final three games of this series.  And really, his play was even worse than those stats indicate.  You could see the fear on James’ face.  Not only did he not relish his championship moment, he couldn’t run from it fast enough.  I can’t explain it, I’m disappointed by it, and though I’m not in the James fan club, I feel cheated by his absolutely abysmal effort and performance on the game’s biggest stage.

The oft-criticized third wheel of the Heat, Chris Bosh scored 18.5 points and grabbed 7.3 rebounds per game in the Finals; James averaged 17.8 and 7.2.  Also, LeBron rarely got to the foul line (20 attempts in the whole series) and he made just 12 of those shots (60%).

With Bosh doing what he was supposed to and a brilliant Dwyane Wade; who averaged 26.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists over the six games; the blame clearly and irrefutably must fall on James’ shoulders.  In a series of tight games, his lack of aggression and production was the difference between a title and second place.

Of course we would miss the lessons the Mavericks just taught us if we forever wrote off LeBron as not clutch, not a closer, and lacking a killer instinct.  Winning takes time, team building is a process, and we shouldn’t paint the Heat as missing championship ingredients just because they got outplayed in this series.  LeBron still has a long career ahead of him to write his legacy, but losing in his first two finals appearances, the second of which he was favored in, doesn’t exactly conjure images of Jordan, Magic, Bird, or Kobe.

Though much of it was self-imposed, over the past year the Heat went through perhaps the most media scrutiny and fan hatred of any team in American sports history.  That animosity will fade with time, and James, Wade, and Bosh will grow more comfortable as a trio.  Additionally, the Heat will have at least a little more cap space this offseason to improve their team.  It looks bleak right now within the shadow of a disconcerting collapse, but looking at the big picture, James is 26, Bosh 27, and Wade 29, and they fell just short of a title in their first campaign together.

But for now, the Mavs are the only ones who merit the title of King, and the Heat face a long offseason of second guessing, self doubt, and what-ifs.  Playoff failure often makes teams stronger in the long run, but you have to wonder how much more of it James can personally take.

--from @AdamHocking

(images from flickr.com)

Lessons Learned from the NBA Playoffs

The Mavericks and Heat haven’t even finished their semi-epic battle for the NBA championship yet, and already this NBA postseason has taught us all we need to know about succeeding in the playoffs and the state of the league in general. 

Lesson 1: There Are No Great Teams

The reason I call this Mavs-Heat series semi-epic is because, while it is very competitive, neither team is playing great basketball.  Miami often looks atrocious in their half-court offense; Dallas consistently plays lackluster for three quarters, then puts together 8-12 good minutes to finish the game.  Miami is very good defensively, and you would think that having three All-Stars would ensure offensive success, but they’ve consistently lacked fluidity and efficiency on that end of the floor.  Building the entire Dallas offensive gameplan around one player, Dirk Nowitzki must either score when he gets single coverage or pass to a solid but unspectacular supporting cast if he’s double-teamed.

The fact that Miami won each series on their way to the Finals in five games is deceiving.  If Boston’s Rajon Rondo didn’t dislocate his elbow in the Second Round, that series easily could have gone to seven games.  Or worse, the Heat may never have advanced.  Even so, Miami played down-to-the-wire games against Philadelphia in the First Round, Boston in the Second, and Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Every game against Boston and Chicago came down to the 4th quarter, and the Heat simply survived the playoff grind better than their opponents.

Similarly, the Mavericks had a tough first round series against Portland and then cleanly swept the Lakers, though they had to make major comebacks in two of the games to win.  Against their Western Conference Final foes, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavs’ largest margin of victory was 9 points, and Dallas won the final three games of that series by 6, 7, and 5 points, respectively, including an overtime contest.

Thus far in the NBA Finals, the Heat have scored 356 points, the Mavs 351.

Lesson 2: Defense Almost Wins Championships

The remaining Finals games notwithstanding, Miami has clearly been the best defensive team in these playoffs.  Still, the Heat’s strategy of getting a lead through three quarters, then holding the ball and relying on their defense to finish games has been a problem.  The Mavericks have twice erased double digit 4th quarter deficits specifically due to the Heat stagnating offensively when they have a late lead.  They stop attacking, they run the shot clock down, and to top it off, take poor shots.  Defense alone cannot completely close a game or a series.

Lesson 3: We Need Not Fear Domination of Super Teams

The Miami Heat seem to be the model for what many franchises want to do moving forward: compile three stars and a bunch of role players to make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  The Knicks hope to land Chris Paul or Dwight Howard to pair with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; the Lakers would love to form a Howard/Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol super-trio.  But as we’ve seen all season, the Heat are good but not dominant.  Specifically, putting three stars on one team is so costly that it won’t allow for a deep bench or great supporting cast.  The Heat have no choice but to play sub-par players like Mike Miller, Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby, and Juwan Howard for significant stretches.

In terms of star power and star talent, the Heat easily trump the Mavs—three stars (Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh) to one (Dirk Nowitzki).  But by committing enormous money to just one player, Nowitzki, the Mavericks can put together a versatile roster that runs much deeper than the Heat’s.  Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and Jason Kidd would probably all be the 4th-best player on the Heat, though none are better than any of the Heat’s big three.

Conclusions

The era of the great team may not be over in the NBA, but the super team strategy certainly has its flaws.  The playoffs have proven to us that defense is the single most important ingredient to postseason success; witness the Bulls making a long playoff run despite having virtually no offense and the Lakers getting annihilated because of their complete lack of defensive effort.  The Grizzlies also ran through the Spurs and nearly beat the Thunder on the strength of wing defenders like Tony Allen and Shane Battier and the rough and tumble inside play of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.  Yet the reason the Heat and the Mavericks have made it to this point is because they combine very good defense with an ability to create shots and go on hot shooting stretches.

Going forward, the NBA seems to have two tracks to success, and the Finals participants represent each of those paths.  There’s the Heat super squad and the endlessly deep Mavs, and judging by the air-tight margins in these games, both are championship-caliber formulas.

--from @AdamHocking

NBA Finals 2011: Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks

As a sports fan and a lover of the NBA, let me first say, hell yes!  What a great matchup.  Sure the Lakers and Heat might have moved the meter more, but let’s face it, the storylines wouldn’t have been as good.  The debate between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James as best player in the game is over; Bryant is past his prime.  On top of that, the Lakers are secure in their championship legacy and have absolutely nothing to prove.

By contrast, there are perhaps no two stars in the league more in need of a ring, not for their legacies, but for the public perception of their legacies, than James and Dirk Nowitzki.  Whether or not Nowitzki wins a championship shouldn’t diminish his greatness as an unstoppable offensive force, and talk of James’ legacy at the age of 26 is a bit premature.  Still, this may well be Dirk’s last shot at a championship, and LeBron has already been in the league eight years.  Titles don’t grow on trees; you better get them when you can.

When predicting the Finals I’d like to keep it simple, but this series is anything but.

Sure, the Heat have three of the four best players in the series, but the Mavericks have perhaps the best player in the world right now in Nowitzki.  You could argue simply to double-team Dirk, but that is probably the worst strategy one could devise.  The 7’ Nowitzki can see over his defenders, is a very good passer, and the best group of three point shooters in the league surround him.  Jason Terry is hitting 46% of his three point shots in these playoffs, Jason Kidd 36%, and Peja Stojakovic 40%.  Then if you don’t double Nowitzki, it’s an automatic two points because no person on earth can guard him or his fadeaway, a fadeaway so sweet it could shut Charles Barkley up.

At the same time, the Heat are probably the best equipped team in the league to defend the Mavericks on the three point line.  James’ versatility on defense and Wade’s speed and strength as a defender form a combination reminiscent of what Phil Jackson used to call his “pit bull” defense—when he would unleash Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan and create havoc for opposing shooters.  The Heat will likely deny Nowitzki the ball as much as possible, because when he has it, he either gets a good shot for his self or a teammate.  The return of Udonis Haslem will help in checking Dirk; Haslem is strong and pretty athletic but still gives up four inches to the sweet-shooting German.

When the Heat have the ball the Mavericks face many difficulties as well.  Jason Kidd won’t be able to stay with Dwyane Wade, so DeShawn Stevenson may draw that assignment.  However Stevenson offers nothing on offense, so Kidd and Terry may well have to exhaust themselves guarding Wade.  That means Wade will be in the paint early and often, where he thrives, and if he and James get going, it will be tough to stop.  The Heat are best when LeBron is distributing, rebounding, defending, and scoring when he needs to while Wade simply attacks the basket and looks to play the Kobe role: straight scorer.

Chris Bosh also has an enormous role to play.  The Mavs could put Tyson Chandler on him, but then only Nowitzki is left to defend the rim.  That’s bad on two fronts: first, that Nowitzki really can’t protect the rim, and second, he will get into foul trouble if he tries.  So I imagine Dirk will check Bosh, and Bosh has a definite quickness advantage there.

Both teams are on a mission at this point, and both teams are playing their best ball of the season.  The Heat have been hated all year, the Mavs doubted every step of the way.  Everyone loves a winner, and a championship gives both teams the chance to forever shake the various labels that have dogged them.

What we’ve seen in these playoffs is that all the teams are very evenly matched, and most games will come down to who executes in the last four minutes.  The Mavs are the deeper squad and have more overall threats, but I’m more frightened of James and Wade to finish a game.  My guess is that, much like in the Bulls series when he covered Derrick Rose to closeout games, LeBron will cover Dirk at the end.  They won’t double him, and eventually Nowitzki will miss some shots.  He’s made incredible shots all postseason, but his degree of difficulty has been enormous.  Meanwhile the Heat have two guys that can get to the hoop and get high percentage shots and free throws whenever they choose.

LeBron’s defensive versatility was the reason Miami beat Chicago, and his offensive versatility, combined with Wade’s matchup advantage, is the reason they’ll win this series.  It will be enthralling to watch.  We’ve got four All-Stars and three of the NBA’s top-7 players in this series.  We’ve got a team in the Mavericks that have played some of the best offensive ball I’ve seen in recent years going up against the clamp-down, defensive Heat.

Ultimately though, one team has LeBron, and the other doesn’t.  I guess it is simple after all.

Prediction: Heat in 7

--from Adam

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were bad last year, which usually means a changing of the guard at quarterback is in order.  However, incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pretty solid 2010 with an 82 passer rating.  And with no surefire quarterback prospects in this draft, I think staying with Fitzpatrick for at least one more year is the best strategy.

The Bills were dead last stopping the run, so adding the beast Marcel Dareus was a great move with their first pick.  Alabama’s Dareus excelled in the rough and tumble SEC, is a great athlete for his size, and appears to be the strongest player on the field at all times.  At 6’3”, 320 pounds, Dareus is the ideal anchor against the run, and with the Bills playing both 3-4 and 4-3, Dareus provides tremendous versatility.  When you watch a game, Dareus is one of the few players that jumps off the screen.

In the second round the Bills made a slightly curious pick, though they got a quality player.  Aaron Williams (DB, Texas) can play corner or safety and is a talented, physical player.  It’s just that the Bills’ secondary is probably the strength of their team; they ranked 3rd in the league defending the pass in 2010.  Still, the defense was Buffalo’s problem last year, and after getting Dareus, I can’t punish them too much for adding another quality player to that side of the ball.

The pick I really like came in the third round, the linebacker Kelvin Sheppard out of LSU.  With stopping the run such an issue, the Bills added two guys in Dareus and Sheppard that should help turn things around fast.  Sheppard is big at 250 pounds and has good speed and overall athleticism, able to get back and cover tight ends.  He was a leader on his college team.

Management must be expecting to lose some of their secondary, because in the fourth round Buffalo again addressed the area, netting Da’Norris Searcy (SS, North Carolina).  The 223-pound Searcy has the size to be an impact player against the run and enough speed and agility to be solid in coverage.  He had an incredible 27 bench press reps at the combine.

In the late fourth round the Bills did something that probably should have been addressed earlier; they picked an offensive lineman.  Chris Hairston from Clemson is a huge man at 6’6” and 325 pounds with great strength and solid athleticism, but he was never a true standout in college.

The Bills may have gotten a solid halfback in the fifth, taking a good, natural runner in UNC’s Johnny White.

In the sixth and seventh rounds the Bills continued to stockpile defensive players.

I always like when a team heads into a draft with a theme like Buffalo clearly did.  They went defense early and often, getting physical players from big-time programs.  Dareus should be a star, Williams should help right away, and Sheppard could start from Day 1 as well. Searcy is a talented player that might take some time learning the league, but he could develop into a thumper at strong safety.  Hairston was a high-upside pick who hasn’t shown that he’s an NFL starter just yet.   White complements an already talented backfield.  The only thing I would say is that the offense needed some major help but didn’t get it in this draft.  I understand though; teams can only do so much with their picks, and Buffalo completely revamped their defense in this draft.

Grade: B+

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had major needs entering this draft, and I’m not sure they addressed enough of them.  They simply didn’t have the number of picks to restock completely, but they did a solid job of adding good players at positions of need.

I like Miami’s first pick, Mike Pouncey (OL, Florida).  He’s an excellent athlete who can play center or guard, and the Dolphins desperately need more talent in the middle of their offensive line.

In the second round Miami got Kansas State runner Daniel Thomas, who fits the theme of this draft: physicality.  Thomas is a bruising 230 pounds, and with Ronnie Brown constantly injured, was a good pick.

In fourth rounder Edmund Gates, Miami might have drafted the next Ted Ginn, or they may have gotten a steal.   Out of Abilene Christian, the thing that pops is his speed: a 4.31 40-yard dash.  Perhaps he can provide the deep threat opposite the massive and imposing possession receiver Brandon Marshall.  If he can, then Chad Henne could improve dramatically.  Henne has a great downfield arm, and has needed a player that to lift the lid off of the defense and to open things up underneath.  Gates has good ball skills and strength, but he is raw in running routes.

In the sixth round the Dolphins picked up Charles Clay (TE/FB, Tulsa) who is a versatile player and a decent athlete who could fill multiple positions.

The first two picks should work out in tandem.  Pouncey can play right away and bring physicality to the Dolphin run game.  Thomas may be running strong behind Pouncey for the next 5-7 years; he’s a talented back that can wear down defenses.  Then adding the speedster Gates should help the Dolphins be a more dangerous vertical passing team.  Additionally, all of the first three selections should help Henne.  If he can’t succeed with a talented new center, another good running back, and a certified deep threat, then he’s not the guy.

Grade: B-

New England Patriots

It just isn’t fair.  They go 14-2 and then have a seemingly endless supply of draft picks the following year.   Without many needs, the Patriots could essentially pick whoever they wanted whenever they wanted.

The Patriots spent their first round selection on Nate Solder, once considered the best offensive tackle in his class, but a guy that had slid a little right before the draft.  Still, New England gets a tremendous pass protector with a huge frame and potential to be a truly elite offensive lineman.  He is the heir apparent to Matt Light on the left side.

New England addressed another big need with the top pick in the second round, adding the physical cornerback from Virginia, Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling is big and fast; the 6’1”, 200-pound corner runs a 4.40 40-yard dash.  Plus, he’s a smart player who started for a long time in college and should be solid immediately in the Patriot secondary.

Late second round pick Shane Vareen (RB, California) was a taken a little high for my taste, but he is a versatile player that bolsters a position of some need.  Though Danny Woodhead is a fine player, I’m not sure he’s the yearly answer as a feature back.  Vareen is a compact and strong runner who can catch the ball out of the backfield and has nice open field moves.  He should get some carries right off the bat and help improve a so-so Patriots running game.

I don’t really understand the Pats’ next pick in the third round, another running back in LSU’s Stevan Ridley.  I believe adding Vareen was a more than adequate move to jolt the running game, but with so many picks to play with, perhaps the Patriots just took a guy they liked.  The 225 pounder with an attacking running style can add another element to the New England offense and gives them perhaps the deepest stable of running backs in the NFL (Woodhead, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Vareen, and now Ridley).

With the very next selection the Patriots did something some loved and others hated: Ryan Mallet.  And I loved it.  If he doesn’t work out, so what?  He’s a third round pick on a championship-level team; it won’t really be a big deal if he can’t be Brady’s successor.  And if he does work out, then the Patriots are geniuses yet again.  Mallett has the best arm of any quarterback drafted this year.  The knock on him is his work ethic and attitude toward the game. Sitting behind Brady for two or three years ought to help Mallett dial in and maximize his physical gifts.  And if Mallett doesn’t turn out to be the Patriots’ guy, he could be juicy trade bait, like we’re currently seeing with Kevin Kolb.

The fifth round saw the Patriots add mammoth TCU guard Marcus Cannon, who fits well with the physical theme New England seemed to be going for in this draft.  Cannon was, to some, a second round talent.  At 6’5” and 360 pounds, Cannon is unbelievably big, but he also shows surprising athleticism playing tackle in college.  If he can learn to play guard, he could be dominant, and that’s not something you can say about most fifth round picks.

The thing to keep in mind with this draft is that New England had a huge rookie class last year and is still developing those players.  They have so many young bodies that needs really disappear, and taking the most talented prospects becomes the smart strategy.  Solder will be a star if he stays healthy and gets stronger, Dowling has all the physical gifts to be a good corner, and the combo of Vareen/Ridley totally reshapes the running back situation.  Mallett was a flyer, a luxury pick with a huge ceiling and not much of a cost coming in the third round.  Cannon was a steal in the fifth.

Overall I love how the Patriots drafted for talent.  Their draft class has as much potential as any teams’.  The only thing I thought they missed was adding more depth to the defensive line.  They maybe could have looked at taking a dynamic wideout as well, but I’m nitpicking at this point.

Grade: A-

New York Jets

Even with limited picks, the Jets still addressed major needs.  The front line of the Jets’ 3-4 was unspectacular last year, especially after Kris Jenkins went down with yet another injury.  Jenkins is probably done as an elite player.  The linebacking corps and secondary are very strong for New York, and the offense is stocked with young talent, so finding impact players on the defensive line was the top priority in this draft.

The Jets hit big in the first round with Temple defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.  At 6’4” and 315 pounds, Wilkerson has the size and strength to play any position on the defensive line, but he will likely spend most of his time at defensive end.  Very athletic for his size, Wilkerson has the ability to take on two blockers and could be a dominant run defender.  Physically, he’s ready to compete with NFL offensive linemen.

In the third round the Jets took a chance on a small school player in Kenrick Elllis, a defensive tackle from Hampton.  The enormous 6’5”, 350-pound Ellis plays with a violent demeanor and fires off the snap.  He has the prototype height to block quarterbacks’ line of vision and the prototype girth to take on multiple blockers.  Plus, he’s scary quick for a man of his size.  With all the talent to excel, Ellis simply has to prove he can transition from a small school to the bright lights of New York and the NFL.

In the fourth round the Jets added another player to their running back rotation, Louisville’s Bilal Powell.  He’s not huge, but at 210 pounds and with a physical running style, he can be a punishing back in stretches.  After underwhelming his first three collegiate years, Powell ran for over 1,400 yards last year.

I like the pick of Jeremy Kerley (WR, TCU) in the fifth round.  He’s a smart player that played in a pass-oriented offense in college.  I think mentally will be ready to contribute right away.  He seems to be a perfect fit in the slot.

Taking a chance on Greg McElroy in the seventh was a smart move.  Mentally he’s as sharp as quarterbacks come, and while his physical skills aren’t mind-blowing, McElroy can hold his own.  To me he projects as an ideal #2 who will add a tremendous presence to the locker room and will be like another coach on the roster.  That’s pretty good value for the seventh round.

Taking defensive linemen with their top two picks was the best thing the Jets could have done; it was by far their biggest need.  Wilkerson should be a solid player immediately and could be very good down the road.  Ellis has huge potential and talent-wise was a steal in the third round, but he has a lot to prove at the next level.  Powell and Kerley were both productive college players that aren’t physically overwhelming but should be contributors.  The Jets can’t be sold that LaDanian Tomlinson has much left in the tank, and wideouts Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are free agents.  With that in mind, Powell and Kerley were smart picks.  Finally, I can’t help but love getting such a solid individual in McElroy in the seventh round.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: #1 Chicago Bulls vs. #2 Miami Heat

Don’t let the seeds fool you; Miami is the favorite and deservedly so.  The Heat have gone 8-2 in this postseason and were impressive late in 4th quarters against the mighty Celtics.  The Bulls are 8-3 in these playoffs, but they struggled mightily in every game against the eighth seeded Pacers and at times looked like the less talented team against the Hawks, who they eventually beat in 6 games.

Let’s not discount the Bulls’ chances however.  Miami struggled all year against the defense and gritty style of Chicago, losing all three regular season matchups.  This is easy to believe when you consider the Bulls as essentially a younger, more athletic version of the Celtics.  Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau made Boston’s defense great and has done the same for Chi-town.

Thibodeau knows exactly what makes LeBron James and Dwyane Wade uncomfortable.   You can bet the Bulls will be forcing that duo into jump shots and committing hard fouls if either dares drive the lane.  If LeBron and Wade are forced to be long-range shooters all series, the Bulls can certainly advance.  It’s also significant that Chicago has home court; that just makes things a little tougher for the boys from South Beach.

Matchup-wise the Bulls have some big-time advantages.  Derrick Rose is in a different universe than any Heat point guard.  Joakim Noah is a top-10 center in the league; Miami doesn’t possess a starting caliber center on their roster between Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Illgauskas, and Joel Anthony.  Chris Bosh is a small forward that everyone just calls a power forward.  Noah will be free to guard Bosh, help on James, and has the rare agility to be an excellent pick and roll defender.

Additionally, Ronnie Brewer and Luol Deng have the athleticism and length to at least slow LeBron down, though neither is near strong enough to physically intimidate him.  A good athlete, the 6’5” Keith Bogans will be a decent guy to defend Wade, and perhaps Rose will spend some time checking him as well.

So, the Bulls play a tough style, have some matchup advantages, and run the type of defense that typically frustrates Miami.  Can you sense the “but” coming?

Yes, Chicago has all these things in their favor, BUT they have really struggled to score in the playoffs.

Derrick Rose may have won the MVP award, BUT he’s probably the third best player in this series.

Rose has put up huge numbers this postseason but shoots ten more shots than any other Bull and only converts 40% of his field goals.  The focal point of your offense has to be more efficient than 40% from the field.

The Bulls’ supposed second fiddle, Carlos Boozer, is battling an injury and posting an unacceptable 11 points (on 42% shooting) and 9 rebounds per game.  Boozer is 6’8” standing on a phone book, and with a bad toe he will be an easy guard for Chris Bosh or even LeBron.  For the Bulls to win this series Boozer has to put up at least 18 and 10, which doesn’t seem likely.

Luol Deng scores 17 points per game in the playoffs, but that has come in an enormous 43 minutes per game on just 43% shooting.

Though the Bulls’ defense is great, the Heat’s isn’t far behind.  Plus, Wade, James, and Bosh are outscoring Rose, Boozer, and Deng 68-58 per game thus far in the playoffs.

Additionally, while Rose is miles better than any Heat point guard, that won’t really matter because the Heat have perhaps the best physical match to guard Rose in the entire league, Dwyane Wade.  Compact, strong, athletic, and explosive, Wade can stay with Rose and make him work even harder than normal for his shots.  Wade is also smart enough to make Rose shoot long jumpers instead of letting him into the lane against the Heat’s weak big men.

Wade can afford to wear himself out in this series guarding Rose because he can turn the offense over to his partners in crime: the All Star, Chris Bosh, and the best player in the league, LeBron James.  I believe Noah will guard Bosh, and is long, quick and very athletic; he’ll give Bosh big problems.  However, Bosh will pull Noah away from the hoop, which leaves only the smallish Boozer to protect the rim.  That spells trouble with LeBron and Wade in attack mode.

Both defenses will play great, Bosh and Boozer/ Noah may play to a draw, and Wade and Rose will probably cancel each other out.  It’s nice for Chicago to be able to counter Wade and Bosh with guys capable of playing right with them—Rose, Boozer, and Noah—but that still leaves the tiny problem of dealing with James.   Luol Deng is a nice player but nothing more.  He’s lanky, long, and a solid scorer.  LeBron James is the best player to enter the league since Kobe Bryant, and might be the most physically talented player ever to lace em’ up.

I think James will run wild in this series, no longer shackled with the doubts that Boston planted in his mind, and having answered many of the “is he clutch” questions that have plagued him over his career.  LeBron James with a clear conscious, a focused mind, and a matchup advantage is a terrifying thought for any opponent, and I think his dominance will give the Heat the deciding advantage in what should be a fun and competitive series.

Prediction: Heat in 6

--from Adam

LeBron Turns the Page, Embarks on his Championship Chapter

If only we had known then what we know now.  Last summer we all watched with baited breath as Dwyane Wade made sneaky visits to the Bulls, LeBron James was wined and dined by the Knicks, and Chris Bosh was rumored to land anywhere from Houston to Los Angeles.  But after seeing the emotion and hearing the words of Wade, James, and Bosh after this latest series, it seems there was never any doubt where the three would end up.
 

The Boston Celtics had a mental stranglehold on Miami for most of this season; fear was literally struck into the hearts of the Miami’s big three by Boston, especially James.  The Celtics were tougher, stronger, smarter, more experienced; they were the better team.  Last year with Cleveland, James actually gave up in the conference semis against the Celtics.  He may as well have played the series with a white flag hanging out his pocket.
 

We did it.

In this year’s series, which the Heat just claimed in five close games, you could see the relief in Miami every time they won.  After Game Four, in which the Heat took a commanding 3-1 series lead, James and Wade found each other immediately and collapsed into each other with a massive and prolonged embrace.  It seemed to say, “We did it.  We won a pivotal game in their house, and we did it in the clutch.”
 

When the Heat polished off the aging Celtics Wednesday night, the emotion was even more apparent.  As the buzzer sounded and the scoreboard read 97-87 in Miami’s favor, James fell to the court overcome with relief, joy, and the sense that his career had finally turned a corner.  The first words of his on-court interview thanked the Celtics for teaching him what it takes to win in the NBA, for molding him into the competitor he has become.
 

LeBron also mentioned in his postgame comments that he loved his time in Cleveland, but that it showed him he could not beat a team like Boston by his self—an unintentionally arrogant statement, for which James is notorious, that contains the truth we as writers seek but simultaneously condemn.
 

With the Celtics vanquished for this year, and perhaps done for good as a championship contender—next year Pierce will be 34, Garnett 35, and Allen 36—James has to feel that his path to championship glory is finally traversable.  The Lakers’ early exit on the other side of the bracket has to be uplifting as well.  Sure, the talented Bulls, Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Thunder remain as possible foes in these playoffs, but none will have the mental edge or championship mettle to intimidate the boys from South Beach.
 

So now, as much as some of us might despise the thought, we may be looking at a sustained run of dominance from the much hated Heat.  As the odds-on favorite to win the title this year, and with James at the tender age of 26, Bosh at 27, and Wade at 29, Miami should have at least a 5-year window to pile up titles.  There’s been a changing of the guard in the Association, and while plenty of teams may retool and build superstar trios of their own, there is no possible duo as potent as James and Wade.
 

Turning the Corner

For years we’ve seen James as a brilliant singular talent, an entertainer, and a regular season force.  At the same time we’ve prophesized that he was destined to fall short in the playoffs, that he didn’t possess the Jordan, Kobe, or Bird DNA.  With the way things look now though, we may have to completely shift the paradigm on James.  He has a chance now to win his first title and to win multiple rings after that.

LeBron shook the non-clutch label and beat the one team that was clearly a mental road block for him over his career.  Now we may see what James is capable of when he plays without fear and without anything to prove, when he focuses solely on basketball.  It could be positively awe-inspiring.

James has won two MVP awards and put up mind boggling numbers since he stepped on the NBA hardwood, but haters have always been able to comfort themselves with his playoff failures.  That may no longer be the case as the Heat seemed poised to take the mantle as kings of the NBA.  With championship failure or success, legacy is the first thing to be discussed.  At age 26, James may be writing a new chapter in the book of his career, and if he wins rings like I think he now can, the title of that chapter could be, “The Best There Ever Was.”
 

--from Adam 

(first image from nydailynews.com, second from usatoday.com)