#11 Houston Texans
What They Need: It’s hard to nail down the needs of this team. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 scheme, which would seem to displace the Texans’ best player, defensive end Mario Williams. I would bet Houston will mix and match with some 3-4 and some 4-3. Either way, Houston needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker, corner, and safety. They were dead last at defending the pass a year ago and just average against the run. Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing provide a great, young defensive nucleus, but they need support. The Texans’ 2007 top pick Amobi Okoye has not lived up to potential at defensive tackle. Kareem Jackson was a rookie last year at corner and looked like it. He should be much better this coming year, but he needs another talented cover man opposite him. Offensively the Texans are very talented. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, Arian Foster won the rushing title last year, and quarterback Matt Schaub has proven to be a top ten passer. The offensive line has been much maligned through the years, but when a team ranks fourth in passing and seventh in rushing league-wide, the line can’t be that bad.
Who They Might Pick: Though the secondary is the Texans most glaring weakness, I doubt that Prince Amukamara will last to pick #11. Patrick Peterson will also be long gone. Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a definite possibility here. Standing 6’2”, he ran an impressive 4.42 at the combine and benched 225 pounds 24 times. My guy Stephen Paea has been falling down draft boards lately, but he’s a possibility as well. Lately draftniks are really enamored with the behemoth defensive tackle from Baylor, Phil Taylor. He’s listed at 6’3” and 334 pounds and has surprising agility. Not just a space-filler, Taylor was very productive last year, recording 62 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. If Houston is really committed to the 3-4, then outside pass rushers will be a high priority as well. I would guess Cushing and Ryans would be the inside linebackers in that system, so help would be needed on the edge. Robert Quinn from North Carolina could fall here, or Aldon Smith, a pass rusher from Missouri. Adrian Clayborn might be a good catch-all pick for Houston, since they’re in transition. He can play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle, push the pocket, and stuff the run. Wisconsin's JJ Watt could fill that role as well.
My Advice: This is probably the toughest team yet for me to counsel. The defensive side of the ball is where the pick has to be. Corner is the biggest need, but the correct prospect might not be there, and defensive line is another big issue. Since Houston was so god-awful against the pass last year, I just can’t justify them drafting a run stuffing defensive tackle, even though they certainly need one. Antonio Smith and Williams are plenty big enough for to play end in the 3-4, so that takes Clayborn and Watt out of my equation. By process of elimination, I’m left with the corner from Colorado, Jimmy Smith, and the two pass rushers, Quinn and Aldon Smith. Since the Texans spent their first pick last year on a corner, I’m guessing they will go pass rusher with this selection. Though Quinn projects higher, I’ll go with the guy who actually played last year, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Despite some injuries, he’s a great athlete and seems suited to play outside in the 3-4 system.
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| At pick eleven, the Houston Texans take Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri. |
#12 Minnesota Vikings
What they Need: With the supposed, alleged, maybe happening, who knows for sure, possible retirement of Brett Favre, quarterback is unmistakably a need for Minnesota. The problem is Newton and Gabbert should be gone by this point on draft day. Other than quarterback, there aren’t too many needs offensively. Adrian Peterson is the most imposing offensive player in the league, Sidney Rice is a star who should be back and healthy, and Percy Harvin is as talented a receiver as there is. Visanthe Shiancoe is a solid tight end as well. The offensive line is aging and could use some help, but it’s still an above average unit. Left tackle Bryant Mckinnie is thought of as a tremendous player by some, a worthless waste of space others. I fall somewhere in between; he’s a fine run blocker that sometimes doesn’t move well enough against great pass rushers. Guard Steve Hutchinson has lost something with age, but is still one of the better players in the league at his position. John Sullivan is unspectacular at center, but solid, and Anthony Herrera can move people in the run game. I’m pretty sure right tackle Phil Loadholt is an alien life-form; no human should be that big (6’8”, 350 pounds). He can be very good with further development. Defensively the Vikings saw the first signs of decline in their dominant defensive line last year. Maybe the best single unit anywhere in the league over the past few years, the Vikes’ front four looked average in 2010. Pat Williams is plainly too old—age 38—to dominate anymore. Kevin Williams is still a great player, but he needs a guy like Jared Allen to take up double teams. Allen started last year horribly but really came on late and finished the season with 11 sacks. He’s only 28 and still a monster, no signs of decline. Ray Edwards is a good end opposite Allen. Led by the excellent Chad Greenway, the linebacking corps is pretty good. E.J. Henderson is great against the run, but he has an injury history and has reached the deadly age of 30. They could use an infusion of talent here, but they run the 4-3 and a linebacker of that style worthy of a top-15 pick simply does not exist. The secondary could really use some help. Antoine Winfield should probably move to safety. He’s still a great tackler, but he can’t cover one-on-one anymore. Chris Cook looks to be a nothing more than a decent player after being drafted high in the second round last year, but maybe he just needs time to develop. Minnesota’s safeties aren’t special either, but there aren’t many great safety prospects in this year’s draft.
Who They Might Pick: Boy, if this team could find a passer, they could be right back amongst the league’s best. That’s the reality for Minnesota, and that’s why I think they’ll try to find a proven veteran quarterback rather than reaching for Jake Locker at this spot. I’m going to assume the Vikes plan on making a move for Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, or Carson Palmer. With quarterback off the draft checklist, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, and safety remain as principal areas of need. If they fell in love with an offensive lineman here, that would be a solid pick too. Mike Pouncey from Florida would represent a definitive upgrade to either the center or right guard positions. If they look defensive tackle I think Taylor from Baylor should be the pick. He’s a Pat Williams clone, just 15 years younger. He would help keep blockers from doubling Kevin Williams or Allen and could recreate the impenetrable run defense the Vikings once had. Like I said, there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker that’s worth this high of a pick, so that’s out of the question. The same can be said for safety. Jimmy Smith, the corner from Colorado, would be a great fit. He’s a dynamic athlete with great size, speed, and strength. Everything you want in a corner physically, Jimmy Smith is fully capable of competing athletically with the league’s best receivers. Pairing Smith with Cook would give the Vikings a set of tall, physical corners.
My Advice: It comes down to the corner Jimmy Smith or the defensive tackle Taylor. From my point of view Minnesota has been searching for a lock-down corner for years now and can’t pass up such a talented prospect. Jimmy Smith should be the pick. The defensive line is plenty strong to be a good unit next year, even minus Pat Williams who is no longer a force. Getting pressure on the quarterback shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but covering receivers has been a big problem for this team. Take Smith, and if he lives up to his talent, the Vikings will be very happy and much improved.
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| With the twelfth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. |
--from Adam
(first image from zimbio.com, second from dallascowboystimes.com)
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