NFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

This feels weird to say, but the defending Super Bowl champs have nowhere to go but up.  Consider that the generous helping of success last year came to one of the youngest teams in league and one that experienced an unprecedented rash of injuries.  With all their young guys gaining a year of Championship experience and all the walking wounded coming back healthy and ready to go, it’s easy to see why both Adam and I predict the Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl Champions.

Our optimism also stems from who we have at QB1—the most important position in football—the league’s overall best player, Aaron Rodgers.  With off-the-charts accuracy, abundant arm strength, a quick release, surprising mobility, and the same number of rings as Brett Favre, Rodgers has it all.  Entering just his fourth year as a starter, expect big-time numbers.

Also at Rodgers’ disposal is one of the deepest receiving corps in football.  You can argue that since Rodgers is so great, he makes his receivers look great, but you cannot deny the raw talent on display.  There’s the game-breaking ability of Greg Jennings; the wily veteran, Donald Driver; the best third receiver in football, James Jones; and saying that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Jordy Nelson.

Before his season ended in Week 5 last year, über-athletic tight end Jermichael Finley was Rodgers’ favorite target.  Should Finley stay healthy, look for a big season out of him.

One of my biggest concerns heading into the offseason was addressing a position guys have shuffled in and out of for years, kick returner.  GM Ted Thompson allayed those fears when he drafted Randall Cobb, a dynamic return man out of Kentucky that should see action in the receiving game as well.

The Packer offense had trouble running the ball last year, which only leaves room for improvement.  Ryan Grant missed all but one half of football last season after injuring his ankle Week 1.  His return gives the offense a boost, but relying on a 28-year-old running back coming off a serious lower body injury may be a dicey proposition.  That is where last season’s playoff revelation, James Starks, can pick up the slack.  Add to those two the strong Alex Green drafted out of Hawai’i, and Green Bay should have a competent running back trio.

Though the defense lost one of its stalwarts, Cullen Jenkins, in free agency, Dom Capers still has enough guys to make you stand up and shout.

A beast off the edge, Clay Matthews is perhaps the most dynamic presence in all of football.  His speed, strength, and tenacity are unmatched.

Just one year removed from a Defensive Player of the Year campaign, team leader Charles Woodson now roams and creates havoc anywhere on the field.  Free from strict cover duty with the emergence of Tramon Williams and the speedy Sam Shields as excellent cornerbacks, Woodson can play in the box as another linebacker, feel comfortable covering a team’s 3rd-best receiver, and is extremely dangerous blitzing quarterbacks off the slot.

In the same first round where they drafted Matthews, the Packers also nabbed “The Freezer,” nose tackle BJ Raji.  Devouring double teams comes easy for the lynchpin of Green Bay’s 3-4, and Raji has spectacular pass rush ability from the inside as well.

The NFL these days is a pass-first league.  In order to win a team must throw the ball efficiently and stop opposing teams’ aerial attacks, mainly through pass rush.  Green Bay excels in both areas.  Unified from the front office to Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff all the way to the players on the field, the Green Bay Packers are going to be a very good team for a very long time.

Biggest Strengths: Aaron Rodgers (of course) and continuity.  Even though the Packers did not make a splash in the free agent market—they never do—in the lockout-shortened offseason, not having to acclimate so many new players works to the Packers’ advantage.

Biggest Weaknesses: Offensive line play.  Chad Clifton must stay healthy, rookie Derek Sherrod must come in and replace long-time starter Daryn Colledge, and the unit as a whole must get better opening holes for a fledgling running attack.

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC North

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are a sexy pick this year to come out and do something they haven’t done since the year 2000, win.  This looks like the year where all the pieces Detroit has assembled will put it together and go on a tear through the NFC.

Matthew Stafford undoubtedly is just what Detroit needs at quarterback.  Watching him play, he has proven that he has “it.”  All he hasn’t done is stay healthy.  Stafford must remain in the lineup for this team to fulfill its cosmic potential.

This potential jumps off the screen when looking at who else the Lions have on offense.  Calvin Johnson is a top-5 NFL receiver with freakish size and speed.  Though rookie second round pick Mikel Leshoure is done for the season with a torn Achilles, the Lions will still have a dynamite two-back combination with Jahvid Best and new addition Jerome Harrison.  Scott Linehan’s two tight end sets showed a lot of promise last year; Brandon Pettigrew’s and Tony Scheffler’s skillsets are tough to gameplan against.

The defensive line assembled under Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham is downright scary.  In only his second year, Ndamukong Suh is already among the most impactful defensive linemen in the NFL.  Suh’s strength, speed, and quickness make him unblockable.  Joining Suh in the trenches is this year’s thirteenth overall pick and a guy who many believe had first overall talent, defensive tackle Nick Fairley.  Flanking those monsters are the tenacious Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril, who comes off an 8.5-sack 2010 season.  With Suh and Fairley drawing double teams upon double teams, Vanden Bosch and Avril should punish opposing quarterbacks.

Elsewhere on defense, former Titan Stephen Tulloch will join his old defensive coordinator in Schwartz and vastly improve the Detroit linebacking group.

Beyond rising star safety Louis Delmas, the secondary is still a work in progress, but they did bring in Eric Wright to hopefully lock down one cornerback spot.  Pressure from the front four should really alleviate the burden on the back end, so if the secondary can at the very least be average, then this defense should go far.

Biggest Strengths: A young, talented team coming together around a young coach and quarterback.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is a sub-par unit.  They must improve to protect the fragile franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

The one move that didn’t happen has me a lot lower on the Vikings’ chances than I would have been, and that was their failure to re-sign Sidney Rice.  I love bringing in Donovan McNabb; I think he still has productive years left in him.  I understand people are down on McNabb after a lackluster 2010, but he was really hampered by playing in the talentless black hole that was the Washington Redskins.  The only problem is, aside from Adrian Peterson, these Sidney Rice-less Vikings look a lot like the Redskins.  Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and a bunch of nobodies greatly resemble Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and a bunch of nobodies.

Let’s not be all gloom and doom though.  Yes, the Vikings’ skill guys may not be that much better than Washington’s, but McNabb will now have the best running back he’s ever played with.  Our pick for best running back in football, Peterson outhits would-be tacklers and always delivers a little punishment of his own.  Such a big back that can cut, find holes, and burst into the open field is something to behold.

The defense is spearheaded by its defensive line, Jerad Allen and Kevin Williams in particular.  Both of those guys are top-5 league-wide in their respective positions.  The stout linebacking corps boasts stud Chad Greenway and heavy hitter EJ Henderson when healthy.  Yet, though once a top-flight unit, the aging front seven is no longer good enough to cover up for a poor secondary.

The offensive line is deteriorating quickly, especially after the release of Bryant McKinnie, who reportedly showed up to training camp weighing nearly 400 pounds.  Steve Hutchinson is no longer the elite player he once was, and outside of that the Vikings are still waiting to see if Phil Loadholt can become a solid player rather than just a heavily penalized giant who takes up space.

All told, this veteran team's window is closing quickly if not already shut.  Bringing in McNabb is a stopgap move—I was clamoring for the Vikings to bring in McNabb before Favre ever got there—that should help the team marginally in the short-term and perhaps somewhat more in the long-term as McNabb can mentor first round reach Christian Ponder.

Biggest Strengths: No matter who surrounds him, Adrian Peterson is a lock for a stellar season.

Biggest Weaknesses: The loss of Sidney Rice leaves a gaping hole at wide receiver, and Father Time is catching up quickly.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears still suck.

--from @jeuneski

Donovan to Don the Purple and Gold

If it wasn't the Eagles, it would be the Vikes.

Remember when a supposedly over-the-hill quarterback signed with the Vikings and ended up having the best year of his career?  That was the 38-year-old Brett Favre, coming off a less than inspiring year with the Jets.

This time the veteran quarterback coming to the Twin Cities is Donovan McNabb.  Like Favre, McNabb’s year prior to joining the Purple People Eaters was unspectacular.  Bear in mind though, that McNabb played for the Washington Redskins, one of football’s least talented offensive teams.  Last year proved that McNabb can’t be the singular talent that carries a football team to greatness, but that’s all it proved.

McNabb can still be very good—if not great—when given the proper supporting cast.  Just two years ago, McNabb posted a passer rating of 92.9, the 3rd-highest of his career, while compiling 3,553 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions.  He did all that on an Eagles team that relied almost entirely on the passing game; he got little help from the run game.  The opposite will be true this season where McNabb will have the behemoth force that is Adrian Peterson and the road-grating offensive line of the Minnesota Vikings.

Those that have dumped on McNabb as over-the-hill are missing the forest for the trees.  He may be too old to carry a bad Redskins team, but at 34 years old he is certainly young enough to push a team with great talent to ten wins or more.  He didn’t forget how to play overnight, and he didn’t lose his physical skills in one offseason.  Sometimes players are simply put in bad positions.  Success in football more than most any other sport is predicated on being on the right team, with the right fit, at the right time.  McNabb fits like a glove (and not OJ’s glove) in Minnesota.

Weapons abound under the re-inflated Metrodome roof.  Percy Harvin is the electric playmaker much like McNabb enjoyed with DeSean Jackson in Philly.  Visanthe Shiancoe, not to mention this year’s second round pick Kyle Rudolph, is the type of sure-handed tight end that McNabb covets and will use often to move the chains in the middle of the field.  If all that wasn’t enough, McNabb can also turn and hand the football to the best running back in the league, Adrian Peterson, 25-30 times per game.

McNabb is smart, he’s still mobile, and he can throw an excellent deep ball.  This Vikings team has the rare chance to combine a ball control running game with a positively frightening vertical passing attack.

Minnesota’s defense is also a talented unit.  Studs like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams compose a tremendous duo in the front four, and Chad Greenway emerging as a star at linebacker.

With this supporting cast, the Vikings quarterback doesn’t have to be other-worldly; he just has to be smart, have the ability to stretch the field, and not turn the ball over.  Essentially, all the Vikings needed in order to be a good team this year was to nab a game-managing quarterback.  They got all that and more in McNabb, who will show the doubters that with the right cast he can still be a dynamic star in this league.  Brett did it at the age of 38; Donovan surely can too at the tender age of 34.

--from @AdamHocking

(image from flickr.com)

Fixing the NBA’s Forgotten Franchise: Minnesota Timberwolves

Recent events and trends in the NBA world may have led you to believe that the league consists of approximately eight teams: The Heat, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, Knicks, Bulls, and Thunder.  Alas, these teams merely compose the league’s upper class.  And much like the nation’s recession, many of the NBA’s middle and lower class teams have been struggling through mediocrity for years now.  For one particularly woe begotten team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who haven’t won more than 33 games in any of the past six years, losing 60+ games three times in that span, I would like to suggest a path out of the darkness.

GM David Kahn may have finally lured Ricky Rubio state-side, and though the Spaniard is allegedly a wizard with the basketball, he may not be the magical anecdote for fixing the Wolves.  Here is what Minnesota needs to do to improve their roster: fire sale.

With the exception of Kevin Love and Wesley Johnson, I would put every single player on this roster on the trading block.  Love gave the Wolves 20 points and 15 boards per game last year; he has to stay.  Johnson is an elite athlete with offensive upside and the ability to defend the opponents’ best perimeter scorer.

Johnny Flynn had a promising rookie year averaging 14 points and 4 assists per game in 2009-2010, but he seemed to fall off the radar completely this year.  Moving him while he still has value would be ideal, but may be easier said than done.

For someone to bring in, the Wolves must target Golden State guard Monta Ellis.  The Warriors are clearly looking to move Ellis, but they wouldn’t want Flynn.  They would like to get bigger at the guard spots and run with a more physical two guard next to the slight Stephen Curry.  Minnesota could offer their second overall pick in this year’s draft along with Michael Beasley in exchange for Ellis.  That might seem like a lot to give up, but this is considered a historically weak draft, and Beasley is a lazy defender and a guy who seems more interested in his stat-line than winning games, though ultimately a productive player.  The Warriors would get a very high pick with which they could draft a bigger shooting guard or a true center to play alongside David Lee, plus Beasley, who has value as a scorer or as a tradable asset.  With new coach Mark Jackson, the Warriors will be looking for a new identity, and this trade gives them options, flexibility, and young talent.

Ellis, Johnson, and Love would be a good trio at the 2, 3, and 4 positions and can be built around.  Love is a proven All-Star in the post; Ellis gives the Wolves a legitimate top flight scorer, averaging 25 points per game over the last two years; and Johnson could continue to develop as a scorer and defender.  At the point position the Wolves could play a bit of the waiting game and see who shines brighter between Rubio and Flynn next year.  They may have a star between the two or they may not, but both will benefit from the presence of Ellis.

At center the Timberwolves must get a player that can defend the rim, because for all of Love’s strengths, he lacks the athleticism and length to be an impactful deterrent in the paint.  Maybe the Wolves’ young Anthony Randolph could be that guy, but he’s another project player.  Packaging Randolph, Flynn, and next year’s first pick for a player like Clippers center Chris Kaman would be a solid move.

 The Clippers have been looking to integrate young Deandre Jordan at the center spot, so Kaman may be movable.  The deal in question would mean some nice talent—Flynn and Randolph—plus a future pick provide a sound return for the Clippers.  Flynn could run the point next to up-and-coming star Eric Gordon, and of course Blake Griffin will continue his ascent into the NBA’s elite.  The salaries work in this deal since Randolph and Flynn come on the cheap, and Kaman’s salary is manageable for the Wolves who have cap space aplenty.

Now the Wolves would have Rubio, Ellis, Johnson, Love, and Kaman as their starting five.  I admit Rubio is a mystery, but he would be surrounded by good NBA talent, and if he has ability, it will show in this lineup.  Ellis is a legitimate top scorer; Love is an All-Star; and the 7-foot, 265-pound Kaman brings the size necessary to complement Love down low.

What the Wolves haven’t had since Kevin Garnett left is proven NBA talent, and this series of moves would give them two young stars to build around—Ellis and Love—along with a player I think will be pretty good in Johnson.  Kaman is the perfect, no-frills center that cleans the glass and is a capable scorer.

With this group, instead of trotting out five prospects who may or may not become good players, the Wolves would have a foursome of good NBA players, plus Rubio.  Martell Webster is a solid bench player for Minnesota, as is Luke Ridnour, and Minnesota would have money left over to add to their bench.

Hey, what do you know, it looks like we not only fixed the T-Wolves, but we helped out the Warriors and Clippers as well.  In each case teams get what they want in these deals.  The Wolves get a star and some more established talent to build a competitive team.  The Clippers shed a player whose replacement looks ready to step in and surround emerging stars Gordon and Griffin with more young talent and a future pick.  The Warriors move the smallish Ellis for the second overall pick this year, and a guy in Beasley who can score 20 per night or be traded again for decent value.

--from @AdamHocking

If you have other team’s that have been placed on the scrap heap that you’d like me to diagnose and attempt to fix, leave a comment, and I will get to work.

NBA Draft Lottery: Karma Exists

The lottery, as announced last night: 

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. Utah Jazz
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Washington Wizards
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Utah Jazz
13. Phoenix Suns
14. Houston Rockets

Teams That Won Big

Cleveland Cavaliers: Lose LeBron James one year; get the first and fourth picks the next year.  Even though no one in this year’s class is LeBron, two top-4 picks have the power to turn things around quickly.  Kyrie Irving will likely be Cleveland’s first choice, and he will be a good—if not great—point guard in this league.  Plus, he had the advantage of learning under Mike Krzyzewski for a year.  With the fourth pick, the Cavs have a shot to get another elite talent.  Cleveland is a bad team right now, but JJ Hickson is a promising forward, Antawn Jamison can still score, Anthony Parker is a solid role player, and Baron Davis is talented but aging.  Anderson Varejao is another guy who, if surrounded by talent, is very adept at crashing the boards and defending well.  The draft is a crapshoot, but the Cavs have the opportunity to add two All Star-level talents to their team, the year after a certain someone took his talents to South Beach. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: If they didn’t have a moron running their front office, this team would have some real opportunities to make their team better.  They could get Derrick Williams with the second pick, maybe the best all-around player in the draft and the guy most ready to come in and impact games immediately.  Pair him with Kevin Love, and you have a stud young forward combination plus last year’s top pick Wesley Johnson, who appears will be a good NBA player as well.  On top of that, the Wolves have Ricky Rubio as a trade asset, and Michael Beasley had his best year as a pro last year.  Package those two guys in a trade for another established player, and the Wolves could finally move from the cellar to at least the middle of the pack. 

Utah Jazz: The Jazz have two lottery picks this year, picking at third (via New Jersey and the Deron Williams trade) and twelfth.  That alone is enough to make lottery night a success, but when you consider what the Jazz ending up getting in exchange for Deron Williams, this night was a slam dunk.  The Jazz dealt Williams for Devin Harris (near-All Star player), Derrick Favors (third overall pick last year), this upcoming draft’s third overall pick, and the Nets’ first round pick next year (likely to be another lottery selection).  And because the Jazz didn’t make the playoffs this year, they also get their own pick, coming in at #12.  There isn’t a team in the league with more young talent, future picks, and established talent—Harris, Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap—than Utah.

--from Adam

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC North

Chicago Bears

I don’t care what you tell me, the Bears weren’t that good of a football team last year.  They only made the NFC Title game because they got to play the Seahawks in the Divisional Round.  Chicago ranked 28th in passing offense, 22nd in rushing offense, 20th defending the pass, and 2nd defending the run.  Their only true strength was stopping the run, Jay Cutler was as erratic as ever, the offensive line ranged from abysmal to serviceable, and the pass coverage was inconsistent.  The Bears have a lot of holes to address, and they only had five picks to fill those holes in this draft.

In the first round picking offensive tackle Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) was a great move.  Ready to start from day one, Carimi could turn into a dominant run blocker.  Physically, Carimi won’t be overmatched by anyone at 6’7” and 315 pounds.  Despite his enormous frame and brute strength, Carimi is light on his feet and quite adept in pass protection.  I believe he should be solid immediately and could develop into an elite, Pro Bowl player.

The Bears’ second round pick, Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea, builds on an existing strength, their run defense.  Paea will likely take the place of oft-injured Tommie Harris in the middle of the line, and he should do a good job of it.  Incredibly strong (a record 49 reps at the combine) Paea also has surprising quickness off the snap.  He won’t rush the passer, but he’ll be a force against the run.

Those two players, while good, essentially make up the core of the Bear’s draft class.  Nathan Enderle is a project quarterback from Idaho the Bears selected in the fifth round.  He won’t see the field unless a few people get injured, and I think the Bears could have addressed their receiving corps, offensive line, or secondary with the pick.

They did get defensive back Chris Conte from California in the late third round, which fits a big need.  Conte is a safety converted from cornerback and was a late riser on draft boards.   He should contribute early and bolster the secondary.

The Bears did well with their first three picks: Carimi, Paea, and Conte.  The first two should start right away and Conte will contribute on defense and special teams.  Enderle was a head scratching pick, and while the Bears filled some big needs, they have many holes remaining.  The picks they made were good, but they needed more of them.

Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Don’t look now, but the Lions have drafted extremely well recently.  Matt Stafford looks like a star talent when he’s healthy.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically imposing receiver in the league.  Last year Ndamukong Suh may have been the most dominant rookie of the past decade.  Jhavid Best, Louis Delmas, and Brandon Pettigrew all look to have promising futures in this league as well.  Detroit is becoming a talented team, year by year adding big time players.

In 2011 enter Nick Fairley.  Maybe Fairley didn’t fit a huge need, but getting one of the five best players in this draft at pick 14 was too good to pass up.  Fairley now pairs with Suh to create what should be one of the most feared defensive fronts in the NFL for the next 8-10 years.  Don’t forget Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril, all quality players still in the mix too.

Second round pick Titus Young (WR, Boise State) is the perfect foil to the gargantuan Johnson: small, quick, precise in his routes, and has very good speed.  He’s a smart player that catches the ball almost every time and can even help in the return game.

Then at pick 25 in the second round, Detroit got what I think was a first round talent in Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure.  Rated by some as the best running back in this draft, Leshoure is big at 6’0” and 227 pounds, very strong, and has enough speed with a 4.56 40.  He’s the physical back Detroit has been missing, a guy that can carry the ball effectively 20 times per game.  Leshoure should perfectly complement the scat back contributions of Best, and together they could form one of the league’s best young backfields.  Stafford, Best, Leshoure, Johnson, Pettis, and Pettigrew are a really impressive nucleus of young talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Though the first three picks were, I thought, fantastic, the Lions only selected two more players in the whole draft.  Fifth rounder Douglas Hoge (LB, Syracuse) is an athletic player who will most likely find his niche on special teams.  Johnny Culbreath in the seventh round is an offensive tackle who has an outside chance at making the team.

Fairley and Leshoure can be Pro Bowl players in my opinion, and I love that the Lions just decided “Hey, wouldn’t it be cool to have the best defensive tackle duo in the league for the next decade?”  Pettis, an excellent slot receiver and multi-purpose player, could take this offense to another level.  Like the Bears, Detroit only had a few nice picks and not much else, but the Lions’ top three choices really blew me away.

Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had the luxury of having minimal needs heading into this draft.  They’re coming off a Super Bowl performance in which several key starters weren’t even healthy enough to play, and they still won.  With most of those starters back in the fold this coming year, in effect this draft was just icing to an already scrumptious cake.

If there was a need on this team, it was offensive line.  Sure that unit was solid last year, but it wasn’t spectacular.  It’s aging in spots, and Aaron Rodgers is the single most important player in the league to protect.  With that, I loved the pick of Mississppi State tackle Derek Sherrod with the last pick in the first round.  He is a solid, first round talent, and many projected him to go higher than thirty-second.  At 6’5”, 321 pounds, he has the prototypical build to play offensive tackle in the NFL.  Having started his last three seasons, 50 total games in the rugged SEC, Sherrod should be used to pressure environments and a high level of physicality.  He’s quick for his size, smart, and has long arms.

Sherrod certainly brings a great attitude and an immense amount of talent to an improving Packer line.  Providing depth behind the Packers’ two starting tackles Brian Bulaga and the aging but still productive Chad Clifton, Sherrod may even slide in to play guard.  Bulaga, Sherrod, and guard Josh Sitton create a wonderful young foundation for the Green Bay offensive line.

If it’s possible, I like the Packers’ second round choice even more than their first.  Drafting a receiver wasn’t a need, but in getting Kentucky wideout Randall Cobb, the Packers took an already electric offense to off the charts territory.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson represent the league’s best receiving corps, but none of those guys is the smallish, cat-quick, slot-type receiver that can find openings underneath defenses.  Cobb is that man.  He has a lightning quick first step and is surprisingly strong, which helps him get his release off the line of scrimmage.  Plus, he has great hands and runs tremendous routes.  Scouts say football is his first love and they expect him to be a dedicated pro.  Cobb also brings intriguing talent to the return game, where his sudden quickness and agility might lead to some game-breaking returns.

In the third round the Packers continued to add weapons to the arsenal by bringing in the talented and bruising running back from Hawaii, Alex Green.  Green is 6’0”, 225 pounds and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash.  A punishing, make-one-cut-and-go runner with surprisingly good hands and very good acceleration, Green should make an impact right away, especially in short yardage situations.

The Green Bay receiving corps is deep, but the running back group is stockpiled as well with returning star Ryan Grant, last year’s breakout performer James Starks, and the rookie Green.  When the Packers run the ball, they’ll have an improved line and three talented backs to give the ball to.

In the fourth round the Packers continue their perfect weekend by selecting New Mexico State corner Davon House, who many had rated as a mid-second round prospect.  House will join the stud group of Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields.  If House is ready to make an impact as a nickel corner, that will free up Woodson even more to continue to rove between safety, corner, and blitz linebacker.  Essentially, the selection of House makes the league’s best secondary even more versatile.

In the fifth round, the Packers were clearly trying to make my head explode when they got my top-rated tight end in the draft, Arkansas’ DJ Williams.  Williams played in Bobby Petrino’s pro-style offense, had laser-armed quarterback in Ryan Mallett, and was hugely productive in the toughest college conference, the SEC.  At 6’2” and 245 pounds, Williams joins Cobb as a great middle of the field target.  He will be a nightmare for linebackers or safeties to cover with his 4.59 40 speed, soft hands, and great route running.

Williams and the returning mega-talent Jermichael Finley give the Packers the best tight end duo in the league.  Add to that to the best quarterback in the league, the best receiving corps in the league, a three deep running back rotation, and a much improved offensive line. Shnikees.

The Packers finished out the draft by adding depth and developmental players to the offensive and defensive lines.  Guard Caleb Schlauderaff from Utah was a nice pick in the fifth round.  He’s not overly talented but was a third team All-American as a senior and started virtually his entire career at Utah.  He’s considered a guy that should make the team, provide quality depth, and maybe even challenge for a starting spot.  The Pack may have also nabbed a steal in the sixth round with defensive lineman Ricky Elmore, who has a really quick first step and a knack for getting to the quarterback.

A team that didn’t need much improvement drastically improved.  They got a stud offensive tackle and a guard that should certainly make their final roster.  They got the one type of receiver they’ve been missing, a lightning-quick slot man who also returns kicks.  They added a physical, fast, punishing back to an already talented backfield.  They got a cornerback in the fourth round that could have gone early in the second and will give an already versatile secondary even more options.  They also got the best tight end in the draft, and can now pair him with the most athletically gifted tight end in the league.  With the coaching the Packers have in place, all of these players can reach their highest potential, and that is a frightening for the rest of the league.

Grade: A+

Minnesota Vikings

Maybe Christian Ponder will be a really nice quarterback in this league.  He’s athletic with a good but not great arm, a very talented player.  But that’s not quite the point.  Just like Jake Locker—who went eighth to the Titans—Ponder could have been had later in the draft, perhaps in the second round.  I suppose if the Vikings loved Ponder, it’s an okay move, but why not try to move back in the draft, accrue more picks, and look for Ponder in round two?

I digress…onto Ponder as a prospect.  With good size at 6’2” and 230 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.63 seconds, joining Locker, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick in what was an incredibly athletic QB class.  Ponder is a good kid that wants to win and was a leader at Florida State.  When he makes the correct read, he can be very accurate.  It’s just that he often has trouble reading defenses and makes a lot of ill-advised throws.  That only figures to get worse as a rookie starter in the NFL.  Ponder may well get to an elite level, but it’s going to take at least three years.

On the bright side for Ponder, he’s stepping into a system with weapons like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and fellow rookie Kyle Rudolph.  Notre Dame’s Rudolph was widely regarded as the best tight end in this draft.  He’s a big, smooth athlete with soft hands, good speed, good size, that came from a pro system.  He’s an effective route runner as well, the type of player that could be good right away but may never be great.

I really like their next three picks.  Christian Ballard (DL, Iowa) is a really good player that could have gone in the late second round, but the Vikings got him in the fourth.   At 6’4” and 283 pounds, he is big and strong enough to play defensive tackle.  Running a 4.75 40 at Ballard’s size was also very impressive, which indicates he’s athletic enough to be a pass rushing end as well.  Versatile, talented, and tough, if nothing else, Ballard provides quality depth to the line in his first season.

Getting Utah corner Brandon Burton in the fifth round may have been a slight steal; he definitely adds depth to a position of need on the Vikings.  His measureables aren’t mind blowing, but they’re adequate, and he’s a smart, instinctive, and tough player.

Demarcus Love (OT, Arkansas) was a great value in the sixth.  At 6’4” and 315, Love is a strong run blocker that could move to guard in the NFL.  He’s an imposing, nasty presence that started 37 games in the SEC and was a team captain.  In other words, he’s been through a lot of wars in the trenches of a tough conference and was a leader on his team.

Ponder was taken too high, but he is a gifted player and the Vikings needed a quarterback badly.  Rudolph adds a really nice talent to an already loaded offense.  Ballard and Burton will both see the field and could become starters, and I think the selection of Love will reap immediate benefits.  The Vikes also had five more developmental picks in the late sixth and seventh rounds.  One or two of those players will probably surprise and make the team.  Overall the Vikings got better in this draft, and the only time they reached was on a very talented player at a position of major need.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings

#11 Houston Texans

What They Need: It’s hard to nail down the needs of this team.  New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 scheme, which would seem to displace the Texans’ best player, defensive end Mario Williams.  I would bet Houston will mix and match with some 3-4 and some 4-3.  Either way, Houston needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker, corner, and safety.  They were dead last at defending the pass a year ago and just average against the run.  Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing provide a great, young defensive nucleus, but they need support.  The Texans’ 2007 top pick Amobi Okoye has not lived up to potential at defensive tackle.  Kareem Jackson was a rookie last year at corner and looked like it.  He should be much better this coming year, but he needs another talented cover man opposite him.  Offensively the Texans are very talented.  Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, Arian Foster won the rushing title last year, and quarterback Matt Schaub has proven to be a top ten passer.  The offensive line has been much maligned through the years, but when a team ranks fourth in passing and seventh in rushing league-wide, the line can’t be that bad.

Who They Might Pick: Though the secondary is the Texans most glaring weakness, I doubt that Prince Amukamara will last to pick #11.  Patrick Peterson will also be long gone.  Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a definite possibility here.  Standing 6’2”, he ran an impressive 4.42 at the combine and benched 225 pounds 24 times.  My guy Stephen Paea has been falling down draft boards lately, but he’s a possibility as well.  Lately draftniks are really enamored with the behemoth defensive tackle from Baylor, Phil Taylor.  He’s listed at 6’3” and 334 pounds and has surprising agility.  Not just a space-filler, Taylor was very productive last year, recording 62 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  If Houston is really committed to the 3-4, then outside pass rushers will be a high priority as well.  I would guess Cushing and Ryans would be the inside linebackers in that system, so help would be needed on the edge.  Robert Quinn from North Carolina could fall here, or Aldon Smith, a pass rusher from Missouri.  Adrian Clayborn might be a good catch-all pick for Houston, since they’re in transition.  He can play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle, push the pocket, and stuff the run.  Wisconsin's JJ Watt could fill that role as well.

My Advice: This is probably the toughest team yet for me to counsel.  The defensive side of the ball is where the pick has to be.  Corner is the biggest need, but the correct prospect might not be there, and defensive line is another big issue.  Since Houston was so god-awful against the pass last year, I just can’t justify them drafting a run stuffing defensive tackle, even though they certainly need one.  Antonio Smith and Williams are plenty big enough for to play end in the 3-4, so that takes Clayborn and Watt out of my equation.  By process of elimination, I’m left with the corner from Colorado, Jimmy Smith, and the two pass rushers, Quinn and Aldon Smith.  Since the Texans spent their first pick last year on a corner, I’m guessing they will go pass rusher with this selection.  Though Quinn projects higher, I’ll go with the guy who actually played last year, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Despite some injuries, he’s a great athlete and seems suited to play outside in the 3-4 system.

At pick eleven, the Houston Texans take Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.

#12 Minnesota Vikings

What they Need: With the supposed, alleged, maybe happening, who knows for sure, possible retirement of Brett Favre, quarterback is unmistakably a need for Minnesota.  The problem is Newton and Gabbert should be gone by this point on draft day.  Other than quarterback, there aren’t too many needs offensively.  Adrian Peterson is the most imposing offensive player in the league, Sidney Rice is a star who should be back and healthy, and Percy Harvin is as talented a receiver as there is.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a solid tight end as well.  The offensive line is aging and could use some help, but it’s still an above average unit.  Left tackle Bryant Mckinnie is thought of as a tremendous player by some, a worthless waste of space others.  I fall somewhere in between; he’s a fine run blocker that sometimes doesn’t move well enough against great pass rushers.  Guard Steve Hutchinson has lost something with age, but is still one of the better players in the league at his position.  John Sullivan is unspectacular at center, but solid, and Anthony Herrera can move people in the run game.  I’m pretty sure right tackle Phil Loadholt is an alien life-form; no human should be that big (6’8”, 350 pounds).  He can be very good with further development.  Defensively the Vikings saw the first signs of decline in their dominant defensive line last year.  Maybe the best single unit anywhere in the league over the past few years, the Vikes’ front four looked average in 2010.  Pat Williams is plainly too old—age 38—to dominate anymore.  Kevin Williams is still a great player, but he needs a guy like Jared Allen to take up double teams.  Allen started last year horribly but really came on late and finished the season with 11 sacks.  He’s only 28 and still a monster, no signs of decline.  Ray Edwards is a good end opposite Allen.  Led by the excellent Chad Greenway, the linebacking corps is pretty good.  E.J. Henderson is great against the run, but he has an injury history and has reached the deadly age of 30.  They could use an infusion of talent here, but they run the 4-3 and a linebacker of that style worthy of a top-15 pick simply does not exist.  The secondary could really use some help.  Antoine Winfield should probably move to safety.  He’s still a great tackler, but he can’t cover one-on-one anymore.  Chris Cook looks to be a nothing more than a decent player after being drafted high in the second round last year, but maybe he just needs time to develop.  Minnesota’s safeties aren’t special either, but there aren’t many great safety prospects in this year’s draft.

Who They Might Pick: Boy, if this team could find a passer, they could be right back amongst the league’s best.  That’s the reality for Minnesota, and that’s why I think they’ll try to find a proven veteran quarterback rather than reaching for Jake Locker at this spot.  I’m going to assume the Vikes plan on making a move for Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, or Carson Palmer.  With quarterback off the draft checklist, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, and safety remain as principal areas of need.  If they fell in love with an offensive lineman here, that would be a solid pick too.  Mike Pouncey from Florida would represent a definitive upgrade to either the center or right guard positions.  If they look defensive tackle I think Taylor from Baylor should be the pick.  He’s a Pat Williams clone, just 15 years younger.  He would help keep blockers from doubling Kevin Williams or Allen and could recreate the impenetrable run defense the Vikings once had.  Like I said, there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker that’s worth this high of a pick, so that’s out of the question.  The same can be said for safety.  Jimmy Smith, the corner from Colorado, would be a great fit.  He’s a dynamic athlete with great size, speed, and strength.  Everything you want in a corner physically, Jimmy Smith is fully capable of competing athletically with the league’s best receivers.  Pairing Smith with Cook would give the Vikings a set of tall, physical corners.

My Advice: It comes down to the corner Jimmy Smith or the defensive tackle Taylor. From my point of view Minnesota has been searching for a lock-down corner for years now and can’t pass up such a talented prospect.  Jimmy Smith should be the pick.  The defensive line is plenty strong to be a good unit next year, even minus Pat Williams who is no longer a force.  Getting pressure on the quarterback shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but covering receivers has been a big problem for this team.  Take Smith, and if he lives up to his talent, the Vikings will be very happy and much improved.

With the twelfth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from dallascowboystimes.com)

Revisionist History

All those that kicked and screamed like little children when Ted Thompson shipped out Brett Favre, please step forward.  It’s high time you receive your verbal whooping.

Don't Look Now

What have the teams that had Favre over the last three years gained?  The Jets got a text message scandal and 22 interceptions in a 9-7 year.  The Vikings got one drama-free good year, but ultimately Favre threw the decisive interception in the NFC Championship Game.  They also got this year, one of the most dramatic, disappointing, devastating years any franchise in team sports has recently endured.  Favre has managed to handicap this team from a salary standpoint, attract an unbelievable amount of negative attention, split the locker room, and get his head coach and chauffeur fired, Brad Childress—a coach, by the way, who the Vikings still have to pay $6.6 million to over the next two years.

And oh yeah, he’s played horribly.  Favre is on pace to tie his personal best of 27 interceptions in one season, and he’s thrown in a basket full of fumbles for good measure.  Tarvaris Jackson’s confidence is likely broken, and the “Fire Childress” chant that rang out during Sunday’s game against Green Bay was one of the most despicable, classless moments I have seen in sports this year.  In other words, Favre’s quest for personal glory has completely ravaged the Minnesota Vikings franchise, not just their season.  Favre’s hubris has left numerous individuals destroyed in its wake, like his wife, Childress, Jackson, Zygi Wilf, and every fan in Minnesota.

Payback's a Bitch

Meanwhile, have you seen what Aaron Rodgers is doing?  He threw for 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter, which has never been done before, and led the Packers to the playoffs last year.  He looks poised to take the Pack deep into the postseason again this year.  And, for those that shout about how Rodgers’ numbers are nice but Favre was the better winner, over the first two and a half seasons of their starting tenure, Rodgers and Favre had the exact same record (prior to Green Bay’s victory over Minnesota Sunday).  In that same period, Rodgers threw for 73 touchdowns and 29 interceptions while Favre threw for 57 and 45.  And, oh wait, Favre is having an abysmal season at age 41 while Rodgers is still ascending at age 26.  You idiot Thompson, we could have had three mediocre years with Favre and tossed away our future with Rodgers, and instead you had the audacity to ensure that the Packers will be contending for the next ten years.  What a jerk!

Some might argue that Favre is the better player because of his career numbers.  Pardon my French, but no shit.  Maybe when Rodgers has played twenty seasons we can compare.  One number that does provide a comparison though is career quarterback rating.  So far Rodgers has posted a 97 while Favre’s career rating sits at 86.

If you want to call Favre a great winner, tread lightly.  He only made the Super Bowl twice in twenty years and won only once.  Favre was more adept at derailing his team in the playoffs than leading them.  In both of his last two appearances in the NFC Title Game, Favre threw the crucial, game-losing interception.  He also has a few 5- or 6-interception playoff games with Green Bay.  Thanks for the memories Brett.

As for pure leadership, Favre deserves an “F” for the last half of his career.  He gorged himself on his image as a legend.  He hijacked the Packers franchise his past three seasons their by waffling about whether or not he would return, then retired, came back, and whined about how Green Bay moved on without him.  Then he moved to the Jets where teammates complained about Favre’s elitist behavior and poor play.  Then of course, he single-handedly annihilated the Minnesota Vikings.

Moving On

All the while, you don’t hear anything from Rodgers.  What you do hear are his teammates raving about how down to earth and how well liked he is.  All you see is Rodgers throwing a beautiful ball, making plays with his legs, and playing like the best quarterback in the NFL.

In short, Brett, you are getting everything you deserve.  You are no longer going to retire with the unblemished, iconic reputation you left Green Bay with.  You will be remembered partly for your toughness and longevity, but you will also be remembered as a self-adoring pervert, philanderer, bad teammate, turnover machine, overall poor sport, and a first class jerk.  Go away Brett, but for once, don’t make it about you.  You no longer have the chance to quit while you’re ahead.  For your benefit and ours, just disappear and let us forget about you for a while.

 

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com)