To Trade or Not to Trade

The Milwaukee Brewers are going to lose Prince Fielder.  At this point it’s just a question of when.  The power hitting first baseman’s contract is up at the end of this year, and it’s considered a foregone conclusion that the Brewers won’t be able to match the big money teams competing for Fielder’s services.  Now what the Brewers have to decide is the potential value of a playoff run this year versus restocking the team for the future.

If the Brewers are out of the playoff picture around the trade deadline, the solution is clear: Trade Fielder because this year is a wash anyway.  But, if as most people predict, the Brewers are competing for the Central Division title, or at least a Wild Card, the equation becomes much more complicated.

Keep in mind the Brewers have made the playoffs just once since 1982.  This is a fan base and a franchise starved for postseason success.  Even if there are some great trade offers for Fielder, they will likely include a lot of young prospects, players who won’t be able to help the Brewers this year.  Trading Fielder mid-season would mean losing the linchpin of the Brewers lineup and almost certainly would sacrifice short-term success for long-term gains.

Is one year of possible playoff glory with Fielder worth losing him for nothing?  Is it worth sacrificing a potential large return on the trade market for one special season?  I say yes.  Keeping Fielder in the event the Brewers are competitive is the correct decision.

Trading for prospects is always a gamble; there’s no guarantee that whatever package Milwaukee could get would bear fruit down the line.  What is a guarantee is that Prince Fielder will hit, and combined with Ryan Braun, Milwaukee has one of the best 1-2 hitting combos in all of baseball.

It’s a gamble to essentially ensure that one of your superstar players will leave your team without cashing out his value.  But when the potential cost of trading that player is postseason success, you have to take that risk.  The Brewers could be special this year, and Fielder is a central component of that possibility.  For a team that has been so bad for so long, instant gratification is important.

Thinking like a general manager, my inclination is to get some nice pieces back for Prince.  But thinking like a fan who has tasted the playoffs just once in my lifetime, I have to err on the side of the immediate future.

--from Adam

(image from zimbio.com)