In picking the Final Four matchups I analyzed every miniscule detail of both games, and it netted me an 0-2 record. This time, I’m going to keep it simple…
Connecticut Huskies vs. Butler Bulldogs
Connecticut is going to have the edge on the boards with big bodied forward Alex Oriakhi and 7-footer Charles Okwandu. Matt Howard is the best all-around post-player in this game, but he doesn’t possess the size or strength of UConn’s frontline. At 6’11”, Butler center Andrew Smith has the length to rebound with the Huskies' big men, but he tends to get pushed around because of his slight frame. UConn’s overall size, strength, and athleticism are going to wear on Butler.
The Bulldogs want to play a half-court game, but that really plays into Connecticut’s hands. It’s going to be difficult for Butler to engineer points in the paint, and they aren’t a great three-point shooting team. Throughout this tournament, Butler has had stretches where they just couldn’t score but overcame their offensive shortcomings with excellent defense. Against Connecticut, that’s going to be a problem. Kemba Walker is going to get his points. He’s on a mission, and he’s absolutely unstoppable against man defense, which is all Butler plays. Shelvin Mack may draw the assignment of guarding Walker, and that’s really dangerous for Brad Stevens’ crew. If Mack racks up fouls or exhausts himself on defense, he won’t be able to carry the load on offense.
Considering Matt Howard’s uphill battle against the bigger Huskies frontline, Mack is going to have to shoulder a heavy burden on offense, and I don’t think he’ll be able to keep pace with Walker and the outstanding UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb. Essentially, Butler’s man defense and UConn’s size will both win their share of battles, and the game will come down to Walker vs. Mack. I’ll take Kemba in that matchup every day.
Prediction: Connecticut 68 — Butler 61
--from Adam
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