Prospect Guide to the 2011 NFL Draft: Offense

Quarterbacks

Should Be Stars: None

Could Be Stars

1. Blaine Gabbert (Missouri): He’s smart, very accurate, and has a big time arm.  The only question is if he’ll struggle adjusting from a spread offense to working under the center.

NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers

2. Cam Newton (Auburn): The best overall athlete in the draft, Newton has the arm strength, size, and confidence to do anything on the field.  The question is will he be committed to the craft of playing quarterback?  Will Newton live in the film room?  Will he obsess over how to execute the play action, how to manipulate safeties, when to run and when to stand in the pocket?  Essentially, will Newton work like Peyton Manning does?  If he does, he can be an all-time great.

NFL Comparison: Part Donovan McNabb and part Ben Roethlisberger

3. Jake Locker (Washington): He has great athleticism (his 4.50 40 clocked faster than Newton’s), a strong arm, has the intelligence, and probably boasts the best intangibles of any passer in this draft.  His teammates loved him, and though he could have entered the draft last year and gone higher, Locker wanted to return to school to get his degree and win a bowl game.  The only thing that worries scouts is his inconsistent accuracy.  He regularly misses open targets and just can’t seem to nail down his throwing mechanics.  If he gets his accuracy under control, he could be the best passer in the draft.

NFL Comparison: Jay Cutler

Jury’s Out

4. Ryan Mallett (Arkansas): If playing this position were solely about throwing the ball, he’d go first overall.  However, huge questions linger about his attitude, focus, smarts, and commitment.  Mallett has a good deal of trouble moving in the pocket, and when bodies start to accumulate near his feet, he makes hurried, inaccurate throws and poor decisions.

NFL Comparison: Jason Campbell

5. Christian Ponder (Florida State): He has great talent, a strong arm, and good athleticism, but his play has always been up and down.  At FSU he would have great games and terrible games in equal measure.  That type of up-and-down play won’t fly in the big leagues.

NFL Comparison:  David Garrard

6. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada): He has great size (6’5” and 233 pounds) and ran a 4.53 40-yard dash.  Arm strength is also not an issue here; Kaepernick trails only Mallett in that category.  The questions are, did he play enough competition at Nevada, and how did the funky Pistol offense prepare him for life in the NFL?

NFL Comparison: Josh Freeman

Running Backs

Should Be Stars

1. Mark Ingram (Alabama): He’s balanced, strong, and smart.  He catches the ball, breaks tackles, and has tremendous acceleration.  Even though he doesn’t have blazing speed, it’s not a necessity at the running back position.  Ingram’s ability to find the hole, get through it, and shed the first tackler will make him a Pro Bowl player.

NFL Comparison: Ray Rice

Could Be Stars

2. Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech): He’s not blinding fast and he doesn’t bulldoze people, but he’s just a natural runner.  He has really good wiggle and is tremendous in the open field.

NFL Comparison: Maurice Jones-Drew

3. Mikel LeShoure (Illinois): I really like his size and power. At 6’, 230, he’s surprisingly nimble and has decent straight ahead speed.  He could be a 20-25 carry back someday.

NFL Comparison: Stephen Jackson

4. Jordan Todman (Connecticut): Though not all that big, he’s powerfully built and has good speed.  More than his measurable, I just like the way he runs and how productive he was in school.

NFL Comparison: Frank Gore

Jury’s Out

5. DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma): His straight-line speed is an absolute weapon, but I worry about his injury history.  He’s dangerous in the open field but not a natural between the tackles.

NFL Comparison: Percy Harvin

Wide Receivers

Should Be Stars

1. AJ Green (Georgia): The only thing that could derail this transcendent athlete is his likely destination, the Cincinnati Bengals.  Physically he has it all: 4.4 speed, 6’4”, 211 pound frame, huge vertical, big strong hands, change of direction ability, and tremendous body control in the air.  He’s not Calvin Johnson in terms of going up for jump balls, but he isn’t far behind.  He is a more compact, fluid runner than Johnson and might be more dangerous after the catch.  Green has all the tools to be a top-5 wide receiver.

NFL Comparison: Calvin Johnson

Could Be Stars

2. Julio Jones (Alabama): Physically he’s everything that Green is, maybe even more.  Jones ran a 4.34 40 with a broken foot, and at 6’3”, 220 pounds, he the most physical wideout in this year’s draft.  He has really good hands and can make some amazing catches, but he has lapses in concentration where he drops passes he shouldn’t.  Inconsistency can be worked on, but what really worries me is the string of injuries Jones had in college that he seems to be carting along with him to the NFL.  If I knew he would be healthy, he might be ahead of Green on this list.

NFL Comparison: Andre Johnson

3. Torrey Smith (Maryland): He has the physical skills teams look for in a number one receiver.  He’s got good size (6’1” 204 pounds) and is one of the fastest players in this draft (4.41 40).  I’m just not sure he was prepared for the NFL in the ACC.  His production was excellent this last year netting 67 receptions for 1,055 yards and 12 touchdowns.  His junior year was less spectacular but still solid with 61 catches for 827 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The guy was never dominant, but he was always productive.  I wonder if he might not be strong enough to be a consistent over-the-middle target in the NFL.  Certainly he has the makeup to be a good deep threat, but I don’t know if he’s more than that.

NFL Comparison: Bernard Berrian

4. Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh): I might be going a bit against the grain by rating Baldwin this high, but I think he has a legitimate shot to the be a Pro Bowler someday.  Baldwin is massive at 6’4”, 228 pounds yet glides as he runs and covers ground rapidly.  He runs a 4.49 40 yard dash, and with his size, strength, hands, and body control, that’s plenty fast enough to add a nice vertical element to any team.  He will be a huge red zone weapon; he’s as good as anybody in this year’s class at getting jump balls.  If put in the correct system, Baldwin could make an impact right away.

NFL Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald

5. Jerrel Jernigan (Troy): The only way this guy become a star is as a slot receiver or a multiple use guy that catches bubble screens, returns kicks, takes reverses, and the like.  At 5’9” and 185 pounds, he’s just not big enough to line up every down against bigger corners.  He runs a 4.46 40, so he’s not blazing fast, but he has plenty to stay away from the field if he gets an opening.  It’s his quickness and lateral agility that scouts like, and he was very productive over a four year career compiling 262 catches, 3,128 yards, and 18 touchdowns.

NFL Comparison: Darren Sproles

Jury’s Out

6. Leonard Hankerson (Miami): 6’2”, 210 pounds, with a 4.40 40 yard dash, all the measurables look really nice.  He had a solid junior season (45 catches, 801 yards, and 6 touchdowns) and a spectacular senior campaign (72 receptions, 1,156 yards and 13 touchdowns).  Sometimes he hesitates when running routes over the middle, he can’t always beat press coverage, and though he’s fast going straight ahead, he doesn’t have tremendous acceleration or agility.  After simply running past slower and smaller college defenders, in the NFL where explosive strength and lateral quickness are paramount for a receiver’s success, he won’t tear the world up right away.

NFL Comparison: James Jones

7. Randall Cobb (Kentucky): At 5’10”, 190 pounds and running a 4.46 40 yard dash, nobody is blown away by this guy on paper.  Cobb’s great potential value comes in his versatility.  He can line up wide, in the slot, as a running back, run the wildcat, or return kicks.  According to scouts, Cobb is exceptionally quick off the line, if not blazing fast at top speed.  He runs precise routes and rarely drops the ball.  He might not be a deep threat, but if his body can hold up, he could be a really dangerous slot receiver and occasional return man.

NFL Comparison: Dexter McCluster

Tight Ends

Should Be Stars: None

Could Be Stars

1. D.J.  Williams (Arkansas): Most pundits have Kyle Rudolph as the runaway best tight end in this draft and the only guy at that position who merits first round consideration.  I couldn’t disagree more.   Here are William’s career college numbers, which came in a pro-style offense: 149 receptions, 1,831 yards, and 10 touchdowns. By contrast, Rudolph’s career collegiate stat line shapes up as follows: 90 receptions, 1,032 yards, and 8 touchdowns.  Williams caught 60 more balls for 800 more yards than Rudolph.  Williams also has the size (6’2”, 245 pounds) and speed (4.59 40-yard dash) to complement his tremendous production.  He played with Ryan Mallet, so you know he can play in the vertical passing game and catch some absolute bullet passes.  Williams played in every game his senior year and for most of his career, while Rudolph missed the second half of last season with a hamstring injury.  To me, Williams just needs to add a little bulk to become a more punishing blocker, and he could be a top tier tight end.

NFL Comparison: Chris Cooley

2. Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame): It may seem like I spent the last section bashing Rudolph, but you always have to be wary of guys with long injury histories.  Rudolph was so limited by his hamstring that he ran a 4.83 40 yard dash at the combine.  He was clocked in the 4.7 range as he has gotten healthier.  Size is one of his biggest assets, and it’s one place he edges out Arkansas’ Williams.  Rudolph is 6’6” and 265 pounds, so he is certainly a great target in the middle of the field or the red zone.  He’s big, but he doesn’t always use his size, and he’ll need to get tougher at the next level.  Once he has the ball he has adequate athleticism to evade defenders and can run away from linebackers and the occasional safety.  His strength is his route running.  With just enough speed, great size, and precise routes, Rudolph could become a very valuable possession receiver.

NFL Comparison: Greg Olsen

Jury’s Out

3. Luke Stocker (Tennessee): At 6’5” and 260 pounds, Stocker has the size teams are looking for.  Running in the low 4.7 range in the 40 yard dash is plenty good for an athlete of Stocker’s build.  He has pretty good hands and was productive over his four year career, compiling 85 catches, 956 yards, and 8 touchdowns.  He needs to work on blocking technique and being more violent with his initial moves.  Stocker looks like he could be a nice middle of the field target that can occasionally stretch the seam deep and be an asset in protection.

NFL Comparison: Heath Miller

4. Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin): If your team is looking for a pure receiving threat from the tight end spot, Kendricks is a great pick.  He’s fast (4.50 40-yard dash) gets in and out of cuts quickly, and has soft hands.   He’s had some injuries and is far from a dominant blocker, but he can hold his own in the trenches.  He’s so fast that Wisconsin used to run reverses to him; you don’t often see that with tight ends.  He was productive over a four year career, amassing 78 catches for 1,160 yards and 8 scores.  Kendricks also instinctively finds open space when his quarterback is in trouble.

NFL Comparison: Dustin Keller

5. Virgil Green (Nevada): Green has good size at 6’3” and 250 pounds complemented by a 40-yard dash time of 4.54.  He’s not just big and fast; he produced relatively well throughout his career.  In this past year, Green’s senior season, he amassed 515 yards receiving and 5 scores.  That was his best season, though over his career he totaled 71 catches, 911 yards, and 11 touchdowns.  Green might be the most gifted receiving tight end in the draft with superior ability to cut, run routes, elevate for the ball, and split seams with his terrific speed.  Soft hands and a good football IQ also raise his value.  He does, however, struggle as a blocker and may only play on passing downs.

NFL Comparison: Owen Daniels

Offensive Tackles

Should Be Stars

1. Anthony Castonzo (Boston College): To me this is a position that has become easier to predict in recent years.  Russell Okung and Trent Williams look well on their way to being stars after being picked in the first round last year.  Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Ryan Clady, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Michael Oher, Jordan Gross are all Pro Bowl tackles picked in recent first rounds.  Castonzo should be next in the line of really good left tackles that can come in and handle their starting duties immediately.  At 6’7” and 311 pounds, Castonzo has the massive frame to stave off pass rushers and is tall enough that he could add 15-20 pounds of muscle to improve his power in the running game.  Scouts say Castonzo is quick and athletic for his size—easily handling speed rushers—and is more driven to be great than most other players they’ve evaluated.  He needs to get better at run blocking, but that will come with added time in the weight room and further development from his coaches.  He’s durable, starting 53 straight games in college.  Castonzo is a guy teams can park at left tackle and forget about for ten years.

NFL Comparison: D’Brickashaw Ferguson

2. Tyron Smith (USC): 40 times shouldn’t concern you at this position, but Smith had the best of his position group, which serves to indicate how athletic he is.  He’s 6’5” 310 pounds and repped 225 pounds an impressive 29 times.  He has the size and strength of most pro left tackles and the athleticism of most NFL defensive ends.  He has all the ability in the world, though he played right tackle in college and now will likely shift over to the left side.  He’s very good right now and could grow into a certifiably great player.

NFL Comparison: Matt Light

3. Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin): The guy is an absolute mauler in the run game.  He’s a workout warrior and might be the strongest guy on any team that drafts him.  He’s 6’7”, 315 pounds and pushed out 29 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press.  Carimi told reporters he should go high because of the competition he faced this past year including Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan, Cal’s Cameron Jordan, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn, and teammate JJ Watt in practice.  All those defensive linemen will go in the first round, and Carimi had no issues with any of them.  He’s more mobile than you might think.  With a long frame and nimble feet, he has all the ability to neutralize speed rushers and bull rushers.  It’s just that Wisconsin ran the ball so often we didn’t get a large enough sample size to judge Carimi’s pass protection skills.  Still, he can do it all.  He has a nasty disposition, and he will be stronger than most NFL defensive linemen he lines up against.

NFL Comparison: Jake Long

Could Be Stars

4. Nate Solder (Colorado): There was a time when Solder topped the list of tackles for many scouts, but he has since slid, perhaps through no fault of his own.  The guys above him on this list are legit and have big time star potential.  Solder, at 6’8”, 320 is certainly massive and could probably add 15-20 pounds without losing much quickness.  He’s one of the few big uglies that ran the 40-yard dash in under 5 seconds.  He also had a relatively puny 21 reps on the bench press.  If he can get that number up around 27 and really pack on some muscle, he can be as good as anyone on this list.  Due to his height, he doesn’t always play with great leverage and can get pushed backwards in the run game or against a good bull rush.  I think adding weight to his frame and playing with greater knee bend could really help him out.

NFL Comparison: Jared Gaither

5. Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State): Not as lanky as Castonzo, Carimi, and Solder, and not as light as Tyron Smith, Sherrod seems to have the perfect build right now for the NFL tackle position.  At 6’5” and 321pounds, he has the long arms to wall off pass rushers and the girth not to be moved by power rushes.  Scouts mainly complain that he gets tired easily and his fundamentals break down.  He needs to work on his pad level when he run blocks.  Mostly Sherrod just needs a good ass-kicking in training camp.  He needs to get in slightly better shape and become passionate about his technique.

NFL Comparison: Jason Peters

Jury’s Out

6. Marcus Cannon (TCU): “Behemoth” is the word to use here.  Cannon is a 6’5”, 350 pounder that may project better to guard than tackle.  Still, teammates from TCU will sing Cannon’s praises, saying that he is a surprisingly good athlete.  If he could tone up his physique and drop 15 pounds, he could be a real monster.  He can run block just fine, but he doesn’t always get to the second level or get low enough to blow people out of the hole.  He’s a good pass blocker once he gets his hands on you, but he may struggle against veteran technicians or speedy pass rushers.

NFL Comparison: Shawn Andrews

7. James Carpenter (Alabama): For what it’s worth, every time I saw Carpenter on TV I was actually frightened of him.  At 6’5” and 300 pounds, he has good size for the position and could stand to add some muscle weight.  I always give preference to linemen who have played in the SEC, a certifiable NFL training ground.  Carpenter started 27 consecutive games and is a good athlete with decent power at the point of attack.  He needs to get stronger and focus more on maintaining leverage and knee bend at all times.

NFL Comparison: Brian Bulaga

Guards and Centers

Should Be Stars

1. Mike Pouncey (Florida): No, people aren’t rating him this high just because of his name.  His brother Maurkice is great, but Mike has a chance to be just as good.  Mike is a tremendous athlete that has played both guard and center and could do either at the next level.  If he plays guard, bulking up from 303 pounds might be in order.  He’s quick for a man his size, and he fires out of his stance and uses great technique.  I think he could possibly be overpowered by the really strong NFL defensive tackles, but he should be able to add strength prior to this season.

NFL Comparison: Duh, Maurkice Pouncey

2. Danny Watkins (Baylor): You just have to like a guy that was once a volunteer fireman, hails from Canada, and essentially fell ass backwards into football.  The only thing giving me and NFL GM’s pause is that he will be a 26-year-old rookie, meaning that he could be past his prime in just seven years.  But if he’s a very good player, which I think he is, he will be able to contribute immediately.  At 6’3” and 310 pounds, he repped 225 pounds 29 times, so he is plenty big and strong.  He played tackle a lot in college but should slide into guard in the NFL.  He’s a fierce player, and one of those guys who will truly appreciate the opportunity and blessing to be an NFL player.

NFL Comparison: Logan Mankins

Could Be Stars

3. Ben Ijalana (Villanova): He’s got prototypical size at 6’4” and 320 pounds, but you worry about the level of competition he played at Villanova.  Plus, he’s had hernia surgery in the past, so that is always worrisome.  He dominated at ‘Nova, flashing good athleticism and solid power in the run game, but we’ll see how that translates to the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Ryan Lilja

4. John Moffitt (Wisconsin): Scouts and NFL teams are missing the boat with this guy.  I watched him play all season, and I don’t think he ever was outperformed by the guy he was blocking.  I don’t remember him ever getting beat one-on-one, and he absolutely eviscerated people in the running game.  At 6’4” and 314 with 24 reps of 225 pounds he has solid but not astounding measureables.  He does everything well, never gets exposed on the field, and possesses a nasty disposition.  I think Moffitt has a chance to start in his rookie year and perhaps rise to the level of a Pro Bowl player.

NFL Comparison: Ben Grubbs

5. Rodney Hudson (Florida State): A prototype center at 6’2” and 300 pounds, Hudson showcased good strength with 27 reps of 225 pounds at the combine.  Hudson won All-American honors throughout his time at Florida State, and only drew one penalty (pelaty?) flag all year long.   He’s not overly powerful, but he’s a smart player that can hold up at the point of attack.  Scouts think his agility translates very well to the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Alex Mack

Jury’s Out

6. Stefen Wisniewski (Penn State): This is a tough family to come from in terms of making a name for yourself.  Stefen’s brother Leo starred at Penn State and played shortly in the NFL.  Stefen’s uncle Steve was an eight time All-Pro in the NFL.  Stefen is a very good athlete for a center that pushed out 30 reps of 225 pounds.  He started since he was a freshman and was never overwhelmed on the field.  Scouts say he is decent in the run game but doesn’t force the action or blow holes open.

NFL Comparison: Ryan Kalil

--from Adam