Defensive Ends
Should Be Stars
1. Robert Quinn (North Carolina): With a muscled frame, long arms, and perfect 6’4” 265 pound build, the guy just looks like a star football player. Even at that size he ran a 4.60 40. Quinn could easily be listed in my linebacker section, as he may play outside in a 3-4, but I see him more as a 4-3 defensive end. He’s so fluid on the field, and is going to be more athletic than any tackle he faces. Sure, he’ll struggle when teams run right at him, but on passing downs teams have to account for him. Quinn is a gameplan ruiner, and that’s exactly what you want in a defensive end. He just needs to add some strength though to make it through the NFL grind. One other concern is that he hasn’t played real football in over a year.
NFL Comparison: Dwight Freeney
2. JJ Watt (Wisconsin): I just don’t think Watt will allow himself to fail. He’s massive, quick for his size, and always finds the football. He can play in any system at any spot along the line. His versatility, motor, and size/speed/strength combination spell future star to me. At 6’5”, 290 pounds, Watt ran a 4.80 40 yards dash and repped 225 pounds 34 times. Yikes.
NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett
Could Be Stars
3. Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson): If his knee is okay, and I mean 100% healthy, then he moves up to a “should be” star. Bowers has gobs of talent, great explosion, tremendous strength, and plays with a ferocity most can’t match. He looks like he’s shot out of a gun when the ball is snapped. At 6’3” and 280 pounds, he’s bigger than the average rush end while maintaining the speed and burst of a smaller man. The big, hairy “but” is that his knee could very well be a problem. It’s the main reason he’s dropped from the top-5 in a lot of mock drafts to the mid-twenties.
NFL Comparison: Terrell Suggs
4. Cameron Heyward (Ohio State): Injuries slowed down what should have been a coronation senior season. A year ago Heyward’s name was bounced around in discussions of who would get picked in the top-5. He has slid a bit, but I think once healthy, he can be a hugely impactful player. He’s big enough (6’4” 295) to play inside in a 4-3 but is best suited as a 3-4 end. Heyward is a violent player with really good quickness off the snap and plenty of power to toss people aside.
NFL Comparison: Richard Seymour
5. Adrian Clayborn (Iowa): I loved watching this guy in college. Every play looks like a street fight when he’s involved. Incredibly strong and equally physical, Clayborn will not be moved off the point of attack. The only thing that gives me pause is his lack of closing speed to the quarterback and explosiveness off the snap. I’m confident he’ll be a positive starting player in this league; I just don’t know that he’ll be a star.
NFL Comparison: Shaun Ellis
6. Cameron Jordan (Cal): Jordan is a flat out football player. He just makes good things happen. I’m worried he’s a bit of a tweener. At 6’4”, 287, and running a 4.74 40 yard dash, he’s not quite fleet enough to play defensive end in a 4-3 and not quite big enough to move inside and play tackle. I suppose he’s ideally suited as a 3-4 defensive end, but there I think his pass rush skills are neutralized. He must either bulk up to play in the 3-4 or trim down and get faster to be a pass rushing end.
NFL Comparison: Justin Tuck
Jury’s Out
7. Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue): He’s got the size (6’4”, 270) speed (4.67 40-yard dash) and strength (31 reps of 225 pounds). So why aren’t I sold? I think he stood out on a weak Purdue squad, and I don’t think he’s as dynamic as he needs to be. Sure, he’s strong and fast on a straight line, but he’s not explosive enough in his first step; scouts question his technique.
NFL Comparison: Trent Cole
8. Jabal Sheard (Pittsburgh): At 6’3”, 265 pounds, Sheard runs a sub-4.7 40-yard dash. Though he has good speed off the edge, he relies more on technique, power, and a relentless motor to get to the quarterback. Also, he doesn’t really fire off the ball, but he’s not terrible in his first step. Sheard had 9 sacks in his senior campaign, and 5 in both his junior and sophomore seasons. He’s never going to be a dominant pass rusher, but he can be a solid player that will bring pressure if single teamed.
NFL Comparison: Ray Edwards
Defensive Tackles
Should Be Stars
1. Nick Fairley (Auburn): Explosiveness, power, incredibly quick for his size, and hits like a ton of bricks, I think Fairley might be the best player in this draft. He’s massive (6’4”, 291 pounds) but has little fat on him. He ran a 4.8 40 yard dash, and he just flies out of his stance. So often he’s the first flash of movement on the screen and in the backfield before anybody else has even engaged their man. He throws away double teams and finishes tackles thoroughly and with a nasty edge. Ideally, he’s suited to play inside in a 4-3. He’s the rare player that can stuff the run, and be a 10 sack player from the defensive tackle spot.
NFL Comparison: Jay Ratliff
2. Marcell Dareus (Alabama): The guy is just a rolling ball of muscle. He is incredibly strong, uses his hands to toss aside blockers, can handle double teams, and is an elite athlete for his position. He could be a penetrating defensive tackle in a 4-3 or a two-gap disruptor as a 3-4 end. Wherever he plays, you won’t be able to block him with just one guy. He’s 6’3” and 320 pounds with quick feet and ran an impressive 4.9 40-yard dash. I put Dareus behind Fairley only because he doesn’t have quite the same first step as his Auburn counterpart does.
NFL Comparison: Haloti Ngata
Could Be Stars
3. Corey Liuget (Illinois): He has the size to hold up at either 4-3 defensive tackle or a 3-4 end and the quickness to provide pass rush as well. He’s slightly behind Dareus and Fairley simply because he isn’t the same physical force in terms of strength and explosiveness.
NFL Comparison: Sedrick Ellis
4. Stephen Paea (Oregon State): Anytime you rep 225 pounds 49 times, you can play in the NFL. Paea is just the perfect mold for nose tackle. Short at 6’1” and not overly big at 303 pounds, he’s just a compact package of piss and vinegar. He’ll be able to take on two blockers, and nobody is going to push him off the ball. He’s not going to rush the passer, but he will be a force against the run.
NFL Comparison: Pat Williams
5. Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple): At 6’4”, 315 pounds, he runs a sub-5 second 40-yard dash. He’s really agile for his size and has long arms to keep players off his body, but I wonder if he might get overextended at times. You also wonder about the competition he played against at Temple.
NFL Comparison: Tommie Harris
6. Phil Taylor (Baylor): The issue with guys like Taylor always is if they can keep their weight under control. Taylor is athletic for his size, incredibly strong, and simply fills space at 6’4”, 355 pounds. He should be able to come in right away and eat up blockers, yet he had a tendency to disappear in games. Too often he allows himself to fight his man to a draw and doesn’t make the extra push to collapse the pocket or wreak havoc in the backfield. Even if he only plays on running downs, he will make the linebackers behind him much better.
NFL Comparison: Domata Peko
Jury’s Out
7. Marvin Austin (North Carolina): He’s got great numbers: 6’2”, 310 pounds, 4.84 40-yard dash, 38 reps of 225 pounds. Across the board he may have been the most physically impressive defensive lineman at the combine. He’s athletic enough to play end in the 3-4 but is probably best suited as a pass rushing tackle in the 4-3. He has all the physical skills you could want, but teams are worried about his demeanor, selfishness, decision making, and commitment to his craft. If his mindset matched his talent, he could be the first defensive tackle taken.
NFL Comparison: Tyson Alualu
Linebackers
Should Be Stars
1. Von Miller (Texas A&M): Lots of times pass rushers are highly touted just because they have nice 40 times or god-like physiques. Miller has all that, but most of all, he’s just a natural football player. He has great instincts and a suitcase full of pass rushing moves. He’s plenty strong, runs a 4.42 40, and was really productive at college with 27 sacks over his junior and senior years. I think he’s a Pro Bowl-level player the minute he steps on an NFL field.
NFL Comparison: Clay Matthews
Could Be Stars
2. Aldon Smith (Missouri): At 6’5”, 255 pounds he has the perfect build for an outside pass rusher. He’s got long arms and was productive if not dominant in college. With a 4.74 40-yard dash, he doesn’t have quite the explosive speed you would want in a pure edge rusher. In his past two college seasons he racked up 17 total sacks, but just 6 of those came this past year. That drop likely was a result of Smith missing three games due injury. His long arms are his biggest asset as a pass rusher, able to create separation between himself and the blocker and impact passing lanes with his huge wing span. He’s strong enough and has a good but not great first step.
NFL Comparison: Shaun Phillips
3. Akeem Ayers (UCLA): His combine numbers are not going to astound you. He’s got fine size for the outside linebacker spot at 6’3” and 254, but ran just a 4.81 40-yard dash and only repped 225 pounds 18 times. He’s not the specimen so many of these other guys are, but he has a natural feel for finding the quarterback. He’s not an insane athlete, but he’s a solid one who’s good at everything: balanced, quick first step, can give a powerful bull rush at times, but needs to develop more moves.
NFL Comparison: Calvin Pace
Jury’s Out
4. Martez Wilson (Illinois): A lot of teams are wondering where this guy will play. Will he be an inside linebacker, and outside pass rusher? Does he fit in a 3-4 or a 4-3? What is evident is that Wilson is a tremendous athlete. He’s got plenty of size at 6’4” and 250 pounds. He runs a blazing 4.42 40-yard dash and pushed out 23 reps of 225 pounds. Bascially, he was a combine freak. His downfall is that he’s not always the smartest player on the field and sometimes relies too much on his athleticism. Scouts say he can play too high and leaves himself vulnerable to getting run over by big running backs.
NFL Comparison: Derrick Johnson
Defensive Backs
Should Be Stars
1. Patrick Peterson (LSU): He’s probably the best overall player in this draft. Built like a big strong safety at 6 foot and 220 pounds, Peterson ran a lightning fast 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine and spent his college career shutting down the likes of AJ Green, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, and Alshon Jeffrey. Peterson won the Bednarik Award for the country’s best defender and the Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in the nation. He might be overaggressive at times, but when you run like he does, you can recover from mistakes. He tackles, has good hands, jams his man at the line, excels as a playmaker in zone coverage, and will never be physically outmatched on the field. He could be the most physically talented cornerback in the NFL the moment he’s drafted.
NFL Comparison: Currently nobody has his blend of size, speed, and skill. Hall of Famer Rod Woodson is the closest match.
2. Prince Amukamara (Nebraska): Unlike Peterson, Amukamara does not excel simply because of astounding athletic ability. Still at 6 foot, 206 pounds, and running a 4.38 40-yard dash, he’s certainly a special athlete. Where Amukamara really excels is his experience and smarts. He started for three years in college and played for four. He was rarely ever thrown at, which explains why he only has 5 career interceptions. He’s incredibly smart, instinctive, and aggressive in coverage. He can play press, man, or zone equally well and also makes tackles in the run game. He’s a great prospect. Though he’s not as ridiculously athletic as Peterson, he could end up being just as good.
NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson
Could Be Stars
3. Jimmy Smith (Colorado): I love the size of these top three corners; Smith keeps the party going at 6’2” and 211 pounds. He also runs a 4.42 40-yard dash, which is plenty fast. He’s a perfect press corner with speed to recover if he’s beat and has good ball skills. He’s also plenty big to come up and tackle running backs.
NFL Comparison: Quentin Jammer
4. Aaron Williams (Texas): The big concern with Williams is his lack of speed. He ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at the combine, and that won’t be good enough against top flight wide receivers. At his own pro day he ran much faster, recording a 4.44. He’s big and strong at 6’1” and 204 pounds, so he can definitely bump with big wideouts and make tackles in the open field. He may transition to safety at some point. Scouts worry that he can’t change of pace well enough, meaning he struggles to break on the ball or recover from a double move.
NFL Comparison: Chris Cook
Jury’s Out
5. Ras-I Dowling (Virginia): Good measureables at 6’1”, 200 pounds, and 4.4 flat speed, he’s a smart player that played a lot in college and has good experience. He started for four years though didn’t post many interceptions because teams avoided his side of the field. He had some injuries his senior year.
NFL Comparison: Leon Hall
6. Rahim Moore (UCLA): Finally, a little safety love. Moore is considered a middle second round prospect, and he’s the best safety in this year’s draft. He’s not overly big at 6’, 202 pounds and runs a pedestrian 4.58 40-yard dash. He’s a smart player, not fast enough to man cover many receivers, but great at reading and reacting in zone coverage. He’s not a great tackler.
NFL Comparison: Chris Harris
--from Adam
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