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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

April 12, 2011

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts

#21 Kansas City Chiefs

What They Need: I don’t love Matt Cassel, but he’s a solid player, and after posting a 93 passer rating last year, the Chiefs are certainly sold that he’s their man.  Running back is also well stocked with young burner Jamal Charles and the Original Gangster Thomas Jones still a very productive runner.  Dwayne Bowe is a very good number one receiver who notched over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns last year.  Last year’s rookie tight end Tony Moeaki also showed that he can be a big time target in the middle of the field, and Dexter McCluster is a very explosive athlete that does a little bit of everything.  The skill positions are strong on this team, though another big time wide receiver could take this group to another level.  The offensive line is set with a very solid guard in Ryan Lilja and Casey Wiegmann still playing decently at the age of 37.  Brian Waters is still one of the better guards in the league, and Branden Albert is a talented, if inconsistent young tackle.  The line could use some reinforcement and some young bodies, but it isn’t a glaring need.  Defensively the Chiefs have some really nice young pieces.  Defensive linemen Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey haven’t played up to their potentials, but both are talented young players who the Chiefs are developing.  Tamba Hali is a terror off the edge, piling up 14.5 sacks last year.  Derrick Johnson is a tremendous athlete at linebacker who is still improving and rung up 121 tackles last year.  Brandon Flowers is a tremendous, young cover corner, and last year’s top pick Eric Berry has a chance to be a perennial Pro Bowler.  Investing in another corner, pass rusher, or run-stuffing nose tackle would be smart decisions.

Who They Might Pick: Cassel was only sacked 26 times last year, and the Chiefs were a force running the ball, so I don’t think they’ll address the offensive line with this pick.  Receiver, nose tackle, pass rusher, and corner seem to be the areas they’ll look at.  Julio Jones and AJ Green won’t be available so the Chiefs might have to reach if they want to nab a wide receiver here.  Maryland’s Torrey Smith, Miami’s Leonard Hankerson, Kentucky’s Randall Cobb, and Troy’s Jerrel Jernigan are all solid second round prospects.  More likely the Chiefs will wait another round to get one of those players.  Stephen Paea and Muhammad Wilkerson could certainly be here and could be nice fits at nose guard.  I doubt Phil Taylor will fall this far, but he’d be a great pick too.  The Chiefs could look for a 3-4 outside linebacker as well and perhaps Ryan Kerrigan, Akeem Ayers, or Aldon Smith could fall to this spot.  If they want to grab a cornerback they will look at Aaron Williams from Texas, Brandon Harris from Miami, and Jimmy Smith from Colorado if he slides.

My Advice: If they take a receiver or corner here, they’ll have to reach, and that’s not a good strategy.  You have to get value for your picks.  Pass rush is already strong with Hali and Johnson, who can provide pressure on occasion.  Getting a strong nose tackle here might really help Dorsey and Jackson develop further and could give the Chiefs a nasty front three.  I really like Stephen Paea, he’s compact and strong as a bull.  He might not be the most athletic guy, but he’s quick in short spaces and can be a force in running game.

With the twenty-first pick, the Kansas City Chiefs take Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State.

#22 Indianapolis Colts

What They Need: It became apparent last year that the Colts were going with the Peyton Manning versus the world strategy, and it still got them ten wins.  This year the Colts have pledged to get Manning more help, and that should start with this pick.  Receiver is fine with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Dallas Clark, amongst others, providing great targets.  Running back could use an upgrade with Joseph Addai wearing down a bit and Donald Brown not yet living up to lofty expectations.  Offensive line is probably the biggest need, and with an abundance of talented tackles in this year’s crop, is the Colts most likely pick.  Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are still good players, but beyond those two, the line is a patchwork.  Defensively the Colts are perennially undersized.  They could us a big defensive tackle, a run stuffing linebacker, and a playmaking safety to replace Bob Sanders.  Corner is all right with Jerraud Powers emerging last year as a really good player.

Who They Might Pick: If Mark Ingram fell to them here, they might take him.  Getting a physical runner would really help alleviate some pressure off Manning’s shoulders.  Still, I think offensive line is a more glaring need, and defensive tackle is more pressing as well.  The Colts need an offensive tackle that can really pass protect, as their offense is more finesse than force.  Tyron Smith and Anthony Castonzo will likely be gone at this point, and Gabe Carimi is more of a fit for a running team.  Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State and Nate Solder from Colorado would be the main options with Solder as the more prototypical pass blocking tackle with extremely long arms and good athleticism.  Taylor, Paea, and Wilkerson could all be options at defensive tackle.  Mike Pouncey could be an option for the Colts if they want to address the guard position.

My Advice: When you have #18, you have to protect him.  Take Nate Solder from Colorado.  He’s the best pass blocker available at this point and can start right away.

At pick twenty-two, the Indianapolis Colts take Nate Solder, OT, Colorado.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com)

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