I'm in a time crunch folks, I'm going to get my marriage license this morning, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten the most important thing, the NBA Playoffs:
(1) Chicago Bulls V. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are athletic and deep, but they just don't have enough offensive punch to last in this series. They'll compete and these games will be basketball played the right way: team defense, sharing the ball, good effort. The Bulls just play that style better. Chicago in 5.
(2) Miami Heat V. (7) New York Knicks
This should be a lot of fun. Talent all over the court. Carmelo Anthony has been arguably the best player in the league over the second half of the season, and Tyson Chandler should really dominate the boards and challenge Lebron and DWade at the hoop. Still, There's nobody that impacts the game as profoundly as James, and I think he's on a mission this year. Heat in 6.
(3) Indiana Pacers V. (6) Orlando Magic
It's simple, there's just no way Orlando does anything without Dwight Howard. Indiana gets a free pass into the second round. Pacers in 4.
(4) Boston Celtics V. (5) Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks did it again! Piled up wins in the regular season only to be bounced by a poised, smarter team in the postseason. The Celtics defense has been stifling since the all star break and the emergence of Avery Bradley has made a big impact. Celtics in 6.
(1) San Antonio Spurs V. (8) Utah Jazz
Things didn't turn out well for the Spurs last year when they achieved the top seed, but I don't see that happening again. With Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson the Jazz have the size to bother the Spurs, and should steal a game or two at home, but they won't win the series. Spurs in 5.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder V. (7) Dallas Mavericks
The Thunder are no longer an inexperienced playoff team, and I think Dallas is on its last legs for this year. The Thunder will run them out of the gym and the series early. Thunder in 5.
(3) LA Lakers V. (6) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the type of team that could bother LA. Their young, deep, and athletic, but they don't have a go to scorer which matters in the playoffs, and they will struggle in the more half-court style of the postseason. Denver also has no match for Bynum and Gasol, but who does? Kobe is rested and the Lakers finally have speed at point guard to counteract the likes of Ty Lawson. It will be a struggle but the Lakers win. Lakers in 6.
(4) Memphis Grizzlies V. (5) LA Clippers
This is the best series of the first round maybe along with the Heat-Knicks. The Grizzlies are really tough inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but the Clips counter with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Rudy Gay has no match on the Clippers, but Chris Paul is the best player in the series. Then there are countless good role players on both sides: Nick Young, Caron Butler, Mo Williams and Randy Foye for LA. OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marreese Speights for the Grizzlies. I Might be nuts here but I think Super-Stars are the difference in the playoffs, so I'll take Chris Paul to find a way. Clippers in 6.
Showing posts with label Nuggets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nuggets. Show all posts
April 27, 2012
February 23, 2011
Catch and Shoot: Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony
Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey
Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams. New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road. They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years. Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road. If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close. The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player. There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.
Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value. Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler. Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick. So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?” Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years. From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him. If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return. The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league. In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate. Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson. The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender. The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that. The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks. As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.
Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple
Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony. I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid. Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton. In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end. Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them. Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth. The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.
Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony. I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid. Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton. In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end. Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them. Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth. The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.
In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport. Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference. LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction. Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system. None of those players has superstar-level talent. Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare.
Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.” That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement. If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract. With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.
Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking. It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable. You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared. No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed. The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets. They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony. So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver. The Nuggets get a solid point guard in Felton, probably top-15 in the league. Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure. The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player. There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there. They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov. Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one. With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game. Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that. What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room. If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with. JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.
Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block. The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game. When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks. Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.
Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars. The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player. The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package. Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.
--from Adam
August 31, 2010
The Mellow Sounds of the NBA Offseason
While this NBA offseason has been anything but peaceful and relaxing, there is still something 'Melo about it. That would be the fact that Carmelo Anthony is going to leave Denver one way or another. It's possible that the Nuggets may try to keep their current roster intact for one more title run, but they risk letting Anthony walk in free agency the following summer and receive nothing in return.
More likely is that the Nuggets will see this dilemma as an opportunity to start from scratch. No NBA fan wants to hear that about their team, but the franchises that realize when it is time to start over are the ones that spend the least amount of time picking in the lottery. Every team goes through transitions, and the best way to ease through them is to maximize your assets.
Trading Anthony could net some very nice players/draft picks in return, and if he is certain to defect in a year, the Nuggets may as well leverage his worth into future building blocks for their franchise. They do not currently have the pieces on their roster to defeat the Lakers, Heat, Magic, or Celtics, so they may as well implode the roster.
Dealing Anthony leaves the question of what to do with Chauncey Billups who would likely not want to participate in a rebuilding process at this stage in his career. Billups could also be trade bait, and while he would not fetch the same return as Anthony, teams are always looking for a good point guard and the Nuggets could obtain solid players in exchange for the savvy veteran.
Though I wouldn't be entirely surprised if teams like the Mavericks, Lakers, Trailblazers, or Bulls at least inquire about Anthony, the following teams are rumored to be preferred destinations: the Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Clippers, Rockets, and Magic. Let's take a look how Anthony could possibly land in these spots.
New Jersey Nets: With young assets to deal in return and likely another high draft choice, the Nets could make an enticing offer for Anthony. (The only issue is that once they have Carmelo they will win many more games, thus devaluing the draft picks they could send to Denver.) Perhaps Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, and two first round picks could pry Anthony loose. That would leave the Nuggets with a very talented young point guard, a nice role player in Williams, and some picks to play with. The Nuggets could also then deal Billups for a position of need. The Nets meanwhile would have an imposing frontcourt of Carmelo, third overall pick Derrick Favors, and rising star Brook Lopez.
New York Knicks: This seems to be the trendy guess of where Anthony will land, but I'm not sure the Knicks have enough on their end to complete a trade. Maybe a package of Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelena Azubuike could be enough to land Anthony, but the Nuggets would have to be desperate to move him for this to work. These are promising players from the Knicks, but none of them are surefire difference makers. The Knicks meanwhile would get the superstar tandem they have been looking for with Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but they would have no supporting cast and no defense. It would be a start though for hungry Knick fans, and perhaps they could add a third star next offseason.
Golden State Warriors: This team has a lot of individual pieces. Monta Ellis is a prolific scorer, averaging over 25 points per game last year. A package of Ellis and sixth pick Ekpe Udoh might be enough for the Nuggets to pull the trigger on an Anthony deal. That would leave the Warriors with Stephen Curry, Anthony, and David Lee. That lineup doesn't have the makes of a title contender, but it could easily be a playoff team with a ton of upside. The Nuggets meanwhile would get a young slasher in Ellis and a great athlete with upside in Udoh.
Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon has been proving his value in the FIBA Championships and his stock is rising. Gordon alone would likely not be enough to land Anthony, but he would be the central piece in any deal. Perhaps Chris Kaman and Gordon would do the trick, but the Clippers would be giving away a lot of production. Still, if you can land a true superstar you should probably do it. The Nuggets might like this deal because it could keep them competitive with their current roster. Billups could stay and form a nice backcourt with Gordon, while Kaman would be a very nice inside presence.
Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is not trade bait because no team would take a chance on his injury-plagued body. Kevin Martin may be the most tradable though, capable of scoring 20 per game in an efficient manner. Perhaps he, Courtney Lee, and some draft picks could interest the Nuggets. Houston would then have Aaron Brooks, Anthony, Luis Scola, and Yao (if healthy) as their core. This would not be a great deal for Denver but it gives them something.
Orlando Magic: To me this is the most interesting potential landing spot, but also the hardest to work out. The Magic's best tradable asset is Jameer Nelson, which means the Nuggets would likely have to move Billups too to make room for Nelson. Rashard Lewis is an OK player but has a huge contract. Vince Carter could provide some production and an expiring contract, but overall the Magic just don't seem like a financially feasible trade option.
Remember that Anthony does not have a no-trade clause, but it is in the interest of all parties that he goes to a place where he will be content; it just makes the logistics of the trade easier. So Anthony has some leverage, and ultimately we may see Carmelo in NYC, simply because that is where he wants to be.
--from Adam
(Image from coloradosportsdesk.com)
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| On the Move |
Trading Anthony could net some very nice players/draft picks in return, and if he is certain to defect in a year, the Nuggets may as well leverage his worth into future building blocks for their franchise. They do not currently have the pieces on their roster to defeat the Lakers, Heat, Magic, or Celtics, so they may as well implode the roster.
Dealing Anthony leaves the question of what to do with Chauncey Billups who would likely not want to participate in a rebuilding process at this stage in his career. Billups could also be trade bait, and while he would not fetch the same return as Anthony, teams are always looking for a good point guard and the Nuggets could obtain solid players in exchange for the savvy veteran.
Though I wouldn't be entirely surprised if teams like the Mavericks, Lakers, Trailblazers, or Bulls at least inquire about Anthony, the following teams are rumored to be preferred destinations: the Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Clippers, Rockets, and Magic. Let's take a look how Anthony could possibly land in these spots.
New Jersey Nets: With young assets to deal in return and likely another high draft choice, the Nets could make an enticing offer for Anthony. (The only issue is that once they have Carmelo they will win many more games, thus devaluing the draft picks they could send to Denver.) Perhaps Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, and two first round picks could pry Anthony loose. That would leave the Nuggets with a very talented young point guard, a nice role player in Williams, and some picks to play with. The Nuggets could also then deal Billups for a position of need. The Nets meanwhile would have an imposing frontcourt of Carmelo, third overall pick Derrick Favors, and rising star Brook Lopez.
New York Knicks: This seems to be the trendy guess of where Anthony will land, but I'm not sure the Knicks have enough on their end to complete a trade. Maybe a package of Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelena Azubuike could be enough to land Anthony, but the Nuggets would have to be desperate to move him for this to work. These are promising players from the Knicks, but none of them are surefire difference makers. The Knicks meanwhile would get the superstar tandem they have been looking for with Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but they would have no supporting cast and no defense. It would be a start though for hungry Knick fans, and perhaps they could add a third star next offseason.
Golden State Warriors: This team has a lot of individual pieces. Monta Ellis is a prolific scorer, averaging over 25 points per game last year. A package of Ellis and sixth pick Ekpe Udoh might be enough for the Nuggets to pull the trigger on an Anthony deal. That would leave the Warriors with Stephen Curry, Anthony, and David Lee. That lineup doesn't have the makes of a title contender, but it could easily be a playoff team with a ton of upside. The Nuggets meanwhile would get a young slasher in Ellis and a great athlete with upside in Udoh.
Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon has been proving his value in the FIBA Championships and his stock is rising. Gordon alone would likely not be enough to land Anthony, but he would be the central piece in any deal. Perhaps Chris Kaman and Gordon would do the trick, but the Clippers would be giving away a lot of production. Still, if you can land a true superstar you should probably do it. The Nuggets might like this deal because it could keep them competitive with their current roster. Billups could stay and form a nice backcourt with Gordon, while Kaman would be a very nice inside presence.
Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is not trade bait because no team would take a chance on his injury-plagued body. Kevin Martin may be the most tradable though, capable of scoring 20 per game in an efficient manner. Perhaps he, Courtney Lee, and some draft picks could interest the Nuggets. Houston would then have Aaron Brooks, Anthony, Luis Scola, and Yao (if healthy) as their core. This would not be a great deal for Denver but it gives them something.
Orlando Magic: To me this is the most interesting potential landing spot, but also the hardest to work out. The Magic's best tradable asset is Jameer Nelson, which means the Nuggets would likely have to move Billups too to make room for Nelson. Rashard Lewis is an OK player but has a huge contract. Vince Carter could provide some production and an expiring contract, but overall the Magic just don't seem like a financially feasible trade option.
Remember that Anthony does not have a no-trade clause, but it is in the interest of all parties that he goes to a place where he will be content; it just makes the logistics of the trade easier. So Anthony has some leverage, and ultimately we may see Carmelo in NYC, simply because that is where he wants to be.
--from Adam
(Image from coloradosportsdesk.com)
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