Week 3 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Patriots at Bills	Patriots	Patriots
Jaguars at Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
49ers at Bengals	49ers	Bengals
Dolphins at Browns	Browns	Browns
Lions at Vikings	Lions	Lions
Texans at Saints	Saints	Saints
Giants at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Broncos at Titans	Titans	Titans
Jets at Raiders	Raiders	Jets
Chiefs at Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Ravens at Rams	Ravens	Ravens
Cardinals at Seahawks	Cardinals	Cardinals
Packers at Bears	Packers	Packers
Falcons at Buccaneers	Falcons	Falcons
Steelers at Colts	Steelers	Steelers
Redskins at Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
	Adam	Eric
Week 2 Record	13-3	11-5
Season Standings	21-11	21-11

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

I spit out my coffee this morning when I heard a talking head on the radio pose this question, “If the Bills win this game, does that mean they’ll win the AFC East?”  Folks, we are entering week three of a sixteen-game season.  Yes, the Bills have been much better than last year, but let’s take a more patient approach to see if they are for real.  We know New England is for real, and they seem to be as efficient as ever, particularly on offense.  I think Tom Brady will go to work in what should be fine weather conditions and pass for another 350-400 yards.  The Bills are getting better, but they aren’t near the level of New England yet.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Bills 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers

In a rookie quarterback showdown, Blaine Gabbert gets his first NFL start, and Cam Newton attempts to throw for 400 yards in his third consecutive game.  I think the Panthers are a more talented team than Jacksonville and Newton will get his first win as a starter using his arm and legs to outscore a weak Jacksonville offense.

Prediction: Panthers 28 – Jaguars 13

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams are playing pretty conservatively on offense due what they both have at quarterback.  San Francisco’s Alex Smith simply isn’t comfortable enough yet in Jim Harbaugh’s system to be more than a game manager.  Conversely Andy Dalton has been very good in the small snippet of time we’ve seen him play, but is still a rookie and certainly doesn’t have the entire playbook under his belt yet.  Both teams would like to pound the ball in the running game, and have certainly tried, but neither Frank Gore nor Cedric Benson seem to have the explosion they once had.  In order to consistently put points on the board the Niners have to take some shots down the field.  Braylon Edwards will be out for the 49ers but Michael Crabtree will be back in the lineup, and I think the difference in this game will be the 49ers’ consistency in all three phases of the game.  San Francisco has been getting good pressure on opposing passers and is playing an attacking style that may fluster the rookie Dalton.  On offense I think San Fran will look to Vernon Davis early and often for some explosive plays.  Neither of these teams is very pretty offensively, but I’ll take the Niners to be just a little more solid all the way around and squeeze out a win.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Bengals 16

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

The Dolphins are probably excited to get on the road since they are notoriously awful at home, but the Dawg Pound is not a friendly travel destination.  I trust Colt McCoy to manage a game more than I do Chad Henne, even though the Browns don’t have a weapon like Brandon Marshall to target.  Cleveland knows their identity: pound the ball with Peyton Hillis, let McCoy make a few plays here and there, and mainly eat the clock.  I think at home the Browns will win the battle of two similarly talented teams simply by being a bit less mistake prone.

Prediction: Browns 23 – Dolphins 21

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

This should be a good test for both teams.  The Vikings aren’t terrible, and at home they are at the very least a challenge to beat.  The Lions meanwhile are trying to prove that they are becoming an elite team, and a 3-0 start including a win in the Metrodome, where they haven’t won since 1997, would certainly help their cause.  Matthew Stafford and company are just so explosive on offense that I don’t think the Vikings will be able to keep pace with them.  Additionally, the Lions nasty front four should pressure Donovan McNabb all day and is powerful enough to really disrupt Adrian Peterson’s plans.  The Vikings’ secondary is its biggest weakness; the Lions’ passing game is one of its biggest strengths.  The Lions biggest weakness, their secondary, won’t be under too much pressure from an underwhelming Vikings receiving corps.

Prediction:  Lions 34 – Vikings 23

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

Get ready for an aerial display with Matt Schaub and Drew Bress taking the field.  The Texans have to feel good about their chances in the AFC South; meanwhile the Saints need every win in the hyper-competitive NFC South.  Arian Foster should be getting closer to full strength and Ben Tate has proven thus far to be a more than apt replacement should Foster suffer a setback.  The Saints, however, are more equipped than ever to shut down the run with the mammoth tackle rotation of Sedrick Ellis, Shaun Rogers, and Aubrayo Franklin.  Meanwhile Mark Ingram is just getting his feet wet, and the Texans appear to be improved in their front seven as well.  So with both teams’ running games a wash, whoever is most successful throwing the ball will win the game, and at home Brees and company will have just a little more firepower.  Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, but the Saints’ offensive line, creativity, and diversity of weapons will allow Brees to stump the Schaub.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Texans 34

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Mike Vick says that he will play and doctors have cleared him, so he should be good to go.  Vick might be somewhat limited as the Eagles will emphasize keeping him in the pocket, but he will be healthy enough to get Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and company the ball.  The Eagles will put up points like they always do, which will force Eli Manning to throw more often than the Giants want.  That means the Eagles’ pass rush and great corners will be able to create havoc.  I’ll take Philly at home.

Prediction:  Eagles 27 – Giants 16

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

I think I’d rather have Kyle Orton than Matt Hasselbeck, but it’s close.  With the quarterbacks essentially an even match, the home field advantage, Kenny Britt, and Chris Johnson should be enough to hold off a Denver team that seems to be in some turmoil.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Broncos 20

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders

This should be a nasty, brutal, physical game between two teams that like it that way.  Both squads will try to pound the ball in the run game, but that will be difficult for the Jets without stud center Nick Mangold.  I think the perception of the Jets is a little inflated because they stomped a bad Jacksonville team last week and eked out a win versus Dallas Week 1.  I’m gonna take a flyer here and go with Oakland to win the battle in the trenches, Darren McFadden to have a big day, and Jason Campbell to outplay the Sanchize.

Prediction: Raiders 17 – Jets 13

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Vegas have San Diego favored by 15 points.  Yikes.  The Chiefs have completely lost their momentum from last year’s playoff run and are now looking to merely stay competitive.  Philip Rivers will be just too lethal against a banged up Chiefs team that doesn’t have enough explosiveness to keep up, especially with Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles gone for the year.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Chiefs 13

Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams

The Ravens are going to be an angry team after getting thumped by the Titans last week, and an angry Ravens team is something nobody wants to face.  Sam Bradford is still nursing a sore finger, and Stephen Jackson will be limited if he plays at all.  I’ll take the Ravens to rebound by riding Ray Rice and finding Lee Evans deep a few times on the way to victory.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Rams 16

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

I’m not ready to make any bold proclamations about how good Kevin Kolb is, but I will say this: he’s a lot better than Tarvaris Jackson.  Kolb-to-Larry Fitzgerald is a connection Seattle can only dream of having, and I think that duo in itself will be enough to overwhelm the downtrodden Seahawks.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Seahawks 14

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

These games are always closer than they should be, but I think Green Bay is ready to show Chicago who really rules the division.  The Packers were able to avoid a scare last week against Carolina and should be re-focused to get back to their prime level.  The Bears simply can’t protect Jay Cutler, and against Dom Capers’ crew, that problem will only get worse.  I think the Packers throw the ball all over the lot and force Cutler into at least two turnovers.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Bears 17

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don’t think either team has played their best football yet, so this will be a good slap in the face for both squads that it’s time to kick it up a notch.  Ultimately I like the weapons and experience surrounding Matt Ryan, even though I think Josh Freeman will be the best quarterback on the field Sunday.  I’ll take Atlanta to pound the ball and the duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones to get rolling on their way to victory.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Buccaneers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

I bet the NFL schedule makers were high-fiving each other when they first put this game on Sunday night.  Now with Peyton Manning out of the equation we are likely set up for a blowout.  The Colts can’t run the ball, and the Steelers excel at stopping the run.  The Colts can’t pass protect, and Kerry Collins can’t move.  The Steelers excel at rushing the passer.  This should get ugly.

Prediction: Steelers 27 – Colts 10

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

This is a tough one to pick because Tony Romo is going to try to play with a broken rib and punctured lung, so it’s hard to say just how effective he will be.  Meanwhile, Rex Grossman has been lighting it up, but I just don’t believe that can last.  Something has to give, and I’ll bank on Grossman caving and turning the ball over while Romo does just enough to survive and win the game.

Prediction: Cowboys 21 – Redskins 17