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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

October 1, 2011

Week 3 Game Notes

Bills over Patriots

Adam
  • The Bills overcame an at least 18-point deficit for the second week in a row.  That certainly says something about the character of this team, but it's not completely positive that they fall behind by so much every week.  Bad starts will eventually catch up to Buffalo.
  • The Bill are certainly a better team than last year, and their passing attack gives them a shot to outscore a lot of teams, but I still think we are looking at a squad that might not finish much above 8-8. 
  • The Patriots were again prolific in the passing game, and for a while it looked as though they were going to roll to yet another win over the Bills.  Then Tom Brady got bitten by the interception bug, tossing as many interceptions in this game as he did all of last year.  Still, two of those picks were tipped passes.
  • This game was more aberration than cause for concern in my opinion.  The Pats’ defense has to improve, but as long as Brady is healthy, New England can beat anyone.
Eric
  • The Patriots had won 15-straight over their AFC East rival Bills, but by overcoming a 21-point deficit, Buffalo ended that streak and remains the last undefeated team in the AFC.
  • With their comeback over Oakland a week ago, Buffalo becomes the first team to ever rally from at least 18 points down and win in consecutive weeks.
  • More than Tom Brady’s “struggles”—despite 4 picks he still passed for 387 yards, threw 4 touchdowns, and set the record for most passing yards through the first three games of a season—the defense really is what’s troubling for the Patriots moving forward.  The pass rush was non-existent, which allowed weak-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick to carve up the secondary like a Christmas ham.
Panthers over Jaguars

Adam
  • Cam Newton didn't throw for 400 yards, but he got the more important outcome, a win.  He seems to have the whole team behind him, a knack for making big plays, a commanding presencea natural leader, if you willand it seems he has a very bright future in this league.
  • Week-in-week-out, Carolina will be a tough out with Newton, a potent running back combo, and a solid offensive line. 
  • The Jaguars are going to be bad, maybe really bad this year, so getting Blaine Gabbert in the fold makes sense.  Get the kid some experience then work on rebuilding around him over the next few years.
Eric
  • Rookie Cam Newton didn’t throw for 400 yards again, but he also didn’t turn the ball over, and in a game with monsoon conditions, the team that makes the fewest mistakes will finish on top.
  • Making his first career start, the Jaguars rookie quarterback, Blaine Gabbert, wasn’t quite so lucky.  Gabbert threw an interception and also was sacked in the end zone for a safety in his first possession as a starter.
49ers over Bengals

Adam
  • As opposed to years past, this year Alex Smith is not make the crushing mistake that loses close games.  He has just one interception on the year and is completing 69% of his passes.  No doubt Jim Harbaugh has the reigns pretty tight on the playbook, but with the way the 49er defense is playing (3rd against the run, 16th against the pass), if Smith can simply be economical the Niners will be in a lot of games.
  • Frank Gore has to get going if this team wants to really step up and be able to play with the better teams in the league.  He's averaging less than 3 yards per carry so far this year.  Part of that blame falls on the offensive line, but part of it might also be that the surgically-rebuilt Gore is hitting the running back wall at age 28.
  • Vernon Davis finally got more involved in the game plan with 8 catches for 114 yards, and Michael Crabtree looked healthy in his return to action.
  • Playing alongside superstar Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman is making a name for himself, flying around and notching 30 tackles so far this year, good for fourth in the league. 
  • Aside from the first drive where Andy Dalton dismantled the Niner defense, the rookie really struggled.  He was battered and threw two picks and no touchdowns.
  • Cedric Benson certainly got the ball enough, 17 carries, but was only able to muster 64 yards.
  • AJ Green looks like an athletic freak out there, but the rookie is still learning the position to be sure.
Eric
  • What’s the fewest amount of plays you have to make to win a game?  I think the Niners found that out on Sunday.  I loved when Adam told me he was watching the Niners-Bengals pillow fight.
  • San Francisco’s record in games where Alex Smith has a turnover: 0-1.  In games he doesn’t: 2-0.  Smith did nothing spectacular against the Bengals, but more importantly he didn’t make the mistake that would cost San Francisco the game.
  • Andy Dalton had a come-back-to-Earth performance (17/32 for 157 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions) after looking pretty good against the Broncos last week.
Browns over Dolphins

Adam
  • This is the type of game the Browns want to play: ugly, close, low scoring.  They aren't going to light up the scoreboard but they can control the ball with Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty. 
  • The Dolphins are a hard luck franchise right now that just don't seem to have a true identity.  Tony Sparano is a lame duck coach, Reggie Bush is a chronic underachiever, and Chad Henne has as hot a seat as almost any starting quarterback in the league.
  • The defense is solid but not quite good enough to carry Miami through the season.
Eric
  • Another game where neither team made many standout plays, Colt McCoy led a late Browns comeback, and Cleveland moved to 2-1 on the young season.
Lions over Vikings

Adam
  • The Lions are so explosive on offense that even a 20-point deficit on the road is no big deal.
  • Calvin Johnson is physically the most unguardable receiver in football.  Nobody is as tall, fluid, strong, and athletic as Megatron.
  • Jahvid Best is a nice playmaker, but Detroit needs a more solid feature back.
  • Still, with Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Matthew Stafford, the Lions will light up the scoreboard every game.
  • The Vikings should be at least 2-1, and if they were we would be singing the praises of Leslie Frazier and the savvy signing of Donovan McNabb.  Instead they've blown consecutive huge leads at home, and now the murmurs for Cristian Ponder have begun.
  • Minnesota needs to figure out a direction fast or they will waste the prime years of one of the league's true superstars, Adrian Peterson.
Eric
  • With the 26-23 overtime victory, the Lions ended their 13-game Metrodome losing streak by beating the Vikings on their home turf.
  • Calvin Johnson continues his monster start and becomes the first NFL player ever with at least two receiving touchdowns in each of his team’s first three games.
  • Tight end Brandon Pettigrew had a strong performance, catching 11 balls for 112 yards.  When the running game wasn’t going, short passes to Pettigrew kept Lion drives moving.
  • Free agent Stephen Tulloch has been a great addition to the middle of the Lion defense.
  • In all three games this season, the Vikings have had double digit leads going into halftime.  The Vikings have lost all three games.
  • The blame up in Vikings country seems directed towards the offense and 34-year-old quarterback Donovan McNabb.  What really falls off from half to half though is Minnesota’s defensive pressure.  Kevin Williams looked fast in his first return to action, Jared Allen blew up Jeff Backus a few times, and even Brian Robison was getting pressure.  In the second halves of all three of Minnesota’s games so far, that unit completely disappears.
Saints over Texans

Adam
  • We expected nothing less than a shootout in this game, and weren't disappointed one bit.  The lowest point total the Saints have tallied this year was last week against Chicago when they racked up a mere 30 points.
  • Drew Brees is back in top form after a bit of an off year last season, but New Orleans needs to use their massive offensive line and running back duo of Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram a little bit more. 
  • The Texans hung right in this game and led for much of the way, but allowing 23 points in the fourth quarter just is not acceptable, exactly the kinds of mistakes the Texans have made in years past.
  • Even if they have a gift-wrapped division this year, Houston must be more solid in closing down games.
  • Ben Tate looks like a stud, and when Arian Foster gets back and healthy, Houston may have the best running back duo in the league by a long shot.
Eric
  • This was a fun oneunless you like defensethat featured 37 total points scored in the fourth quarter and multiple fourth quarter lead changes.
  • Both teams had very similar statistical days.  Drew Brees and Matt Schaub each threw for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The Texans netted 109 yards rushing, the Saints 100.  The difference though was Houston’s four red zone drives that ended in field goals rather than touchdowns.
Giants over Eagles

Adam
  • Eli Manning finally had a game with no interceptions and seemed to get rid of the ball a little quicker than usual.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw is a really good all around back, and while the Giants have no superstars on offense, Manning, Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and a solid offensive line makes for a team that should consistently put up points.
  • Michael Vick is always going to struggle staying healthy, especially if he continues to run so much and his offensive line doesn't improve.
  • The whole Eagles team seems to be built to play in a dome environment.  Vick, LeSean McCoy, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin are all small players that rely on speed and are susceptible to injury.  I don't know how this offense will fair with injuries and in sloppy, cold conditions as the season progresses.
  • Even the Philly defense is built to play fast and with a lead.  They have great corners and pass rushers but can be beat up in the trenches.
Eric
  • This marks the second game in a row that Michael Vick started but didn’t finish.  Non-coincidentally, Philadelphia has lost both games.
  • Rookie Casey Matthews has no business as a starting NFL middle linebacker.  Perhaps with all the offseason moves the Eagles should have bolstered their linebacking corps.  Watch Matthews get burned down the sideline by Brandon Jacobs, of all people.
Titans over Broncos

Adam
  • Kenny Britt tore his ACL, and to me that dashes any playoff hopes the Titans may have had.  By far their best weapon on the outside, Britt's absence puts too much pressure on Matt Hasselbeck to carry the team.
  • Averaging just 2.1 yards per carry, Chris Johnson has to pick it up for this team to have a respectable season. 
  • Flatout, the Broncos are not very good.  At his best Kyle Orton has been really average, and there isn't much to Denver's skill positions.
  • Denver is also extremely old in the secondary, and Elvis Dumervil has to get healthy to complement super rookie Von Miller.
Eric
  • Tennessee’s leading rusher was their punter who had one carry for 21 yards.  Chris Johnson, show me why you got paid.
  • A stagnant running game meant Matt Hasselbeck had to play well, and he did.  Hasselbeck went over 300 passing yards for the second-straight week.
  • The Titans lost Kenny Britt in this contest for the season, and also, news broke today that former Titan offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger died Friday night due to cancer.  He was 58.
Raiders over Jets

Adam
  • Are we looking at a different Raiders team than we've seen in years past?  Maybe, but I know it's still very early.  They did take a step forward last year going 8-8 and they appear to be building on that success despite the significant offseason losses of Nhamdi Asoumgha, Zach Miller, and Robert Gallery.
  • Darren McFadden has become an absolute beast.  After a breakout season last year, Run DMC already has 393 yards this season and averages 6.4 yards per carry.  Adrian Peterson might be the only back that physically rivals McFadden.
  • Jason Campbell has been very solid this year with just one pick and a 94 passer rating.
  • Since Mark Sanchez is so up and down, and the running game has been really inconsistent, if somebody scores 25 points against the Jets, they're probably going to beat them.
  • I also think the defense in New York is overrated and that the special teams have lost an edge with Brad Smith’s departure.
  • New York is still better than most teams, but I think they are closer to the middle of the pack than most pundits care to admit.
Eric
  • Raiders runner Darren McFadden gashed the typically stout Jets defense all day, going for 171 yards on 19 carries and scoring 2 touchdowns.
Chargers over Chiefs

Adam
  • Philip Rivers has not been the prolific stat machine we are so used to, but winning in September is also something we don’t expect from the Chargers.  Rivers will get on track; he's simply better than his 82 passer rating suggests.
  • What I really like is the emergence of second year back Ryan Mathews, who has looked strong so far this year.  Mathews carried 21 times for 98 yards in this game and also has 18 catches already this year.  A true feature back could really give this offense the balance it will need in the latter months of the season.
  • Antonio Gates needs to get healthy because when he does, Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Mathews, and Gates might be as good an offensive group as exists in the league. 
  • The Chiefs at least competed in this game, but without the threat of explosion from Jamaal Charles, the offense just has to work too hard to sustain drives and manufacture points.
  • It's going to be a really long season in Kansas City.
Eric
  • San Diego let Kansas City hang around an awfully long time, but a late Eric Weddle interception of Matt Cassel sealed the deal for the Chargers.
Ravens over Rams

Adam
  • In the Ravens’ two wins this year they've outscored opponents 72-14.  Between those two blowouts they lost to the Titans.  Kind of hard to figure, but the Ravens look powerful when they're clicking on all cylinders.
  • Rookie speedster Torrey Smith had a huge, breakout game going over 150 yards receiving with 3 scores, just the type of deep threat this offense has always needed.  He should really complement fellow burner Lee Evans in clearing out the middle for Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson, and Dennis Pitta.
  • This is the most complete Ravens team I've ever seen, but it still all hinges on the consistency of Joe Flacco. 
  • The Rams have had a tough opening schedule with games against the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens.  Fortunately the Rams, despite being 0-3, play in a division where getting to 8 wins might be good enough to reach the playoffs.
  • Sam Bradford has been under duress a lot this year.
Eric
  • Baltimore’s Torrey Smith is the first rookie to ever catch 3 touchdown passes in a first quarter.
  • In a 37-7 rout, even big ol’ Haloti Ngata got in on the scoring.
  • Sam Bradford had 3 first half passing yards.  3.  Count ‘em: 1, 2, 3.
Seahawks over Cardinals

Adam
  • I thought it was possible Seattle wouldn't win a game this year, but I guess that was silly considering the division they play in.  This game was a race to 13 points.  Seattle got there first. 
  • The Cardinals just don't have much talent outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Kevin Kolb, who did not play very well this week.
Eric
  • Sidney Rice did not disappoint in his Seahawk debut, catching 8 passes for 109 yards.
Packers over Bears

Adam
  • The Packers pretty much man handled the inferior Bears, but somehow Chicago always makes these games closer than they should be.
  • Aaron Rodgers actually threw an interception; the sky is falling!
  • Ryan Grant looks to have regained the explosion that he had prior to injury last season, and that's a scary prospect for defenses.
  • Even scarier is Jermichael Finley adding to the seemingly endless array of weapons at Rodgers' disposal.  On the season Finley has 15 grabs for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • I never thought I'd see a more athletic tight end than Vernon Davis, but Finley might be that guy.  Finley is the more fluid route runner, a more sudden athlete, and goes up better for jump balls.  Davis might have more pure straight-line speed, but I think Finley is the better overall athlete.
  • Top-5 wideout Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Finley, Grant, rookie Randall Cobb, veteran Donald Driver, James Jones, and James Starks compose the deepest and most frightening collection of skill players in the league.
  • Good, young offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga dodged a bullet when he sprained his knee but didn't do more serious damage. 
  • The Bears ran the ball just twelve times, which includes three Jay Cutler scrambles.
  • Cutler isn't good enough, the receivers aren't good enough, and the offensive line isn't good enough for the Bears to continually throw the ball 40 times per game.  If that trend continues, Cutler will continue to throw 2-3 picks and get sacked at least 3 times every game.  That simply isn't sustainable, especially for a Bears team that should control the clock and win games with their solid defense.
Eric
  • Making up for injury has been the Packers’ M.O., but losing safety Nick Collins for the year to a neck injury sustained Week 2 really hurts.  The secondary has not gotten off to a great start any way, but now down one of their key components, Green Bay must reach down the depth chart once again and find some magic.
  • The added dimension of Jermichael Finley, who broke out in this game with 3 touchdown catches, makes the Green Bay offense more dangerous than it was a year ago when it tore through the playoffs all the way to a championship.
Buccaneers over Falcons

Adam
  • The Bucs haven't been particularly pretty the past two weeks, but the end result is all that matters in the NFL.  A road win in Minnesota followed by a 3-point victory over the rival Falcons have the Buccos right where they want to be, 2-1, tied atop the NFC South. 
  • Matt Ryan simply has to be better.  It's time for him to take the step from a merely good player to one that can carry a team on his shoulders.  I don't know if he's capable of taking that step, but with the talent surrounding him, he has every chance.
Eric
  • Atlanta has not protected Matt Ryan well at all.  He got beat up against the Eagles last week and here again versus the Buccaneers.
  • Tampa Bay completely stoned Michael Turner, and that’s the number one way to beat the run-heavy Falcons.
Steelers over Colts

Adam
  • The Steelers have not been particularly impressive this year, especially on offense, but you can't argue too much with a 2-1 record, even if those wins came against Seattle and the now hapless Colts.  Still, Pittsburgh doesn't look like the team that made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year.
  • The Colts nearly took this game on the strength of their defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but just didn't have enough juice to finish the game.
Eric
  • Curtis Painter.
Cowboys over Redskins

Adam
  • The Redskins looked like the better team all game long.
  • LaRon Landry, Brian Orakpo, and Ryan Kerrigan, who I gave no credit to when they drafted him, are big-time studs.  Landry might be the most explosive hitter in the league, and Orakpo/Kerrigan look like one of the best bookend pass rushing tandems anywhere.
  • Rex Grossman has been solid, though physically he always looks like he doesn't belong in the game.  The Redskins need more weapons on the outside and a little more punch in the running game to support Grossman.
  • Second-year tackle Trent Williams is a beast as well.  His battle with DeMarcus Ware was great television. 
  • The Cowboys did everything wrong in this game and still won.  It's hard to fathom what the locker room was like after this game.  It honestly felt like the Cowboys lost with the litany of mistakes they made.
  • Dallas’ young center, Phil Costa, had perhaps the worst performance I've ever seen a player at that position have.  He snapped the ball at the wrong time at least four times.  When he did get it right he snapped the ball over Romo's head three times and twice at his feet.  Romo even called Costa out at the end of the game.
  • On top of that, many of the Boys' young wideouts had no idea where to line up, and Romo had to direct them once they broke the huddle.
  • How Dallas moved the ball at all is a testament to Romo.
  • Six field goals won’t be good enough most nights, and Dallas has a ton to work on.
Eric
  • The vaunted Dallas offense scored a grand total of 0 touchdowns but still got the win.  Rookie Dan Bailey kicked six field goals and the Cowboys won 18-16.
--from @AdamHocking and @jeuneski

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