Week 1 Pick-Down

It's that time of year again, time when Adam and Eric put their prognosticating prowess to the test.  We'll use the same rules as last year where a regular season win is worth one point.  Then we raise the stakes in the playoffs where a correct first- or second-round pick is worth two points, a correct Conference Champion pick is worth four, and the Super Bowl winner's worth eight.  Also in the playoffs we have the underdog bonus where picking an upset is worth double the points if you're correct, but you subtract the points if you're wrong.  Underdog status goes by seeding in-conference and by Vegas once we get to Super Bowl XLVI.

It took us all the way to the Super Bowl to decide who would win the Pick-Down last year, so let's hope it's just as exciting this year.  Now without further ado, our picks for the opening week of the 2011-2012 NFL season...

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Saints at Packers	Packers	Packers
Steelers at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Falcons at Bears	Falcons	Falcons
Bengals at Browns	Browns	Browns
Colts at Texans	Texans	Texans
Bills at Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Titans at Jaguars	Titans	Jaguars
Lions at Buccaneers	Lions	Lions
Eagles at Rams	Eagles	Rams
Giants at Redskins	Giants	Giants
Panthers at Cardinals	Panthers	Cardinals
Vikings at Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Seahawks at 49ers	49ers	49ers
Cowboys at Jets	Cowboys	Jets
Patriots at Dolphins	Patriots	Patriots
Raiders at Broncos	Broncos	Broncos

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

The last two Super Bowl Champions meet at the venue from which the Lombardi Trophy originates.  In other words, it doesn’t get any better than this.  Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are two of the best four quarterbacks in all of football, and both command stunningly powerful offenses, each with an endless array of weapons from which to pick.  Both teams have the ability to run the ball when they want to as well.  The Saints’ defense should be the best it’s been in years with big boys Abruayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers adding a mammoth presence to their defensive line.  Still, the Packers may boast the best defense in all of football with a stout front three, one of the best pure pass rushers in the game in Clay Matthews, and a ballhawking secondary that may be the league’s best.  This should be a great game with as much talent on the field as we will see in any matchup this year, but I gotta go with the champs at home.  Rodgers puts on the championship belt and defends his crown.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Saints 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens should be eager to avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Steelers while Pittsburgh needs to lick its wounds from a Super Bowl defeat.  I think Baltimore is tired of being the little brother to Pittsburgh, and though a Week One victory won’t prove anything, I’ll give the nod to the Ravens in what should be a brutal matchup.

Prediction: Ravens 16 – Steelers 13

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

The Bears were a fluke last year, and they will come crashing back to earth this year. Cutler is never going to be a star; he’s just always going to be that guy with a huge arm that makes too many crucial mistakes.  The Falcons, meanwhile, are perhaps the most balanced offense in the league with a punishing rushing attack, rock solid quarterback, and two beasts on the outside in Roddy White and Julio Jones.  The Falcon defense should be a notch better as well with the addition of pass rusher Ray Edwards.  I’ll take the Dirty Birds.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Bears 16

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Just as the Saints and Packers should be a thing of beauty, this one should get ugly.  Colt McCoy has looked good in the preseason and is probably ready to be at least a proficient starter in the league.  The Browns are just a more stable organization and team, so I will take them at home over the painfully young and chaotic Bengals.

Prediction: Browns 20 – Bengals 9

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

I’ve said it in years past, but I think the Texans are ready to take the AFC South crown from the Colts this year.  It’s not because of their high-powered offense, but because of their improved defense.  JJ Watt is going to be a stud, and he joins Demeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, and Mario Williams in what should be a tenacious front seven. The uncertain status of Peyton Manning is much more of a concern to me than the lame hamstring of Arian Foster, and I’ll give the Texans the win at home.

Prediction: Texans 31 – Colts 20

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

The Bills are in full rebuild mode and lost two of their defensive leaders in Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner.  You could do worse at quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he’s not good enough to make a bad roster into a winner.  The Chiefs will ride their powerful rushing attack and short passing game, which includes a great diversity of weapons (now weakened by the ACL injury of talented young tight end Tony Moeaki) to a win at home.  Matt Cassel says he will play despite a broken rib.

Prediction: Chiefs 17 – Bills 13

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

After cutting their starting quarterback, David Garrard, just five days before the season opener, it appears the Jags are in flux just as the Titans have been all offseason.  I'll take Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, and Matt Hasselbeck to outscore Luke McCown and company.

Prediction: Titans 21 – Jaguars 13

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a great matchup for Week One: two teams indisputably on the rise with young talent all over both rosters.  For some reason I’m drinking the Lions Kool-Aid, and I think they are ready to come out and make a statement win.  Matthew Stafford goes wild and the Lions win.

Prediction: Lions 28 – Buccaneers 27

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams

The “Dream Team” will be on the field and should be in full effect in a dome environment, though I think all the new Philly additions will take some time to gel.  Gelling may be a tough assignment against second year rising star Sam Bradford and his workhorse running back Stephen Jackson.  The Rams will be better this year and have a blue collar defense that plays better than the names on the jerseys would lead you to believe.  Bradford is adjusting to his second offensive coordinator in as many years, but he’s a very sharp player and should be ready to roll right away.  Containing Michael Vick and company however might be too tall a task for the much improved Rams.  I will give the nod to Andy Reid’s crew based purely on the dominant presence of Vick.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Rams 24

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman is going to be the starter opening day.  That’s all you need to know.

Prediction: Giants 20 – Redskins 13

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

Two quarterbacks with plenty to prove matchup here, the highly touted but untested Kevin Kolb and the hugely talented rookie Cam Newton.  For whatever reason, I like Newton and his flair for the dramatic.  I think he’ll pull out a win in his first game as a starter even against a team that is more talented than his own.  Look for Carolina to pound the ball behind a big offensive line and two very good backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and utilize play action to Steve Smith and tight end Greg Olsen.  Newton is a lock to do something crazy.  Perhaps he’ll just run his way to a victory in his first NFL start.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Cardinals 20

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers is simply going to be too much for a sub-par Vikings secondary, and that will be the story of the game.  Adrian Peterson will get his yards, but not enough of them.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Vikings 17

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

This is a battle between what many expect to be two of the worst teams in football, but when it comes the 49ers, I just can’t help myself.  I love Jim Harbaugh, I like the talent on offense, and I’m going to pretend again that it’s possible Alex Smith can have a breakout year.

Prediction: 49ers 17 – Seahawks 13

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

I think the Jets have taken a bigger step back then people realize in losing Brad Smith, Jericho Cotchery, and Braylon Edwards.  Mark Sanchez still has a ton to prove, and the defense is probably a little overrated.  I like Dallas to get back on a winning track with new head man Jason Garrett and Tony Romo back in the saddle.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Jets 20

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Two teams at opposite ends of the NFL universe matchup here.  The perennially powerful Patriots should have little trouble dealing with an underwhelming Dolphins squad that now boasts Reggie Bush as its feature back.  Miami’s defense is solid and could keep things close, but the Patriots just have too much firepower to lose this game.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Dolphins 17

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

I don’t have much of an inkling about what either of these teams will be except that neither will be very good.  Combined with the pass rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, I’ll take the solid Kyle Orton at home to win the game.

Prediction: Broncos 20 – Raiders 17