AFC West: 2011 Division Preview

Kansas City Chiefs

Since the Kansas City Chiefs start Matt Cassel at quarterback it’s easy to identify the whole team as vanilla.  However, the cast of playmakers Scott Pioli has assembled is one of the more dynamic groups in the league.  Look no further than the 26-year-old Dwayne Bowe, who cemented his status as a Pro Bowl number one receiver last year with over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Bowe is now joined by perhaps an even more physical presence opposite him in rookie Jonathan Baldwin.  Many were surprised when Kansas City drafted Baldwin in the first round, but the 6’4”, 230-pound mountain of a receiver with an impressive 4.5 40 is a great deep threat and incredibly skilled at snatching jump balls away from defenders.  Baldwin should become a terror in the red zone as well.  Though it may take Baldwin some time to catch on, considering the rest of the Chief offense, it won’t hurt if Baldwin isn’t 1998 Randy Moss.

With agility reminiscent of another former Chief, “The Human Joystick” Dante Hall, jitterbug Dexter McCluster is a threat to do something electric whenever he touches the ball.  McCluster can return punts, play a little running back, and work out of the slot as well.

Coming over from Todd Haley’s former stomping grounds in Arizona, Steve Breaston rounds out a versatile, talented, and exciting receiving corps.

Tight end Tony Moeaki had a superb rookie year last season and displayed excellent hands and a knack for getting open.  Moeaki’s no Tony Gonzalez, but he is a very good player who should continue to improve.

All this and we still haven’t gotten to last season’s number one rush offense.  The definition of a playmaker, Jamaal Charles compiled nearly 1,500 rushing yards last year and averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry.  Again this season Thomas Jones will be the thunder to Charles’ lightning.  Jones showed he has enough left in the tank last year racking up 896 rushing yards.

Casey Wiegmann still holds down the center spot pretty well at age 38, and Ryan Lilja is solid at guard.  Former Raven Jared Gaither brings a mammoth presence to the right tackle position and should provide great push in an already potent running attack.  If Brandon Albert can maximize his big-time talent, this should be a very good offensive line.

Cassel isn’t great, but with his supporting cast he doesn’t need to be.  “Get rid of the ball and let my many playmakers do their thing” is all Cassel should be thinking.  As long as Cassel stays out of the way, this could be one of the best offenses in football.

The Chiefs need a return on the huge investment they poured into top draft picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.  I believe both are improving, but I also believe neither will ever prove worthy of their lofty draft statuses.  Out of Miami, rookie Allen Bailey may push both Jackson and Dorsey for time.

The real question up front is who will man the nose.  It could be twelve-year veteran Kelly Gregg who is perennially solid at occupying blocks.

Tamba Hali emerged as a star at rush linebacker last year compiling 14.5 sacks, and I expect him to continue to produce 10+ sack seasons.  With tremendous range, power, and a nose for the football, Derrick Johnson has also settled in as a near Pro Bowl-level linebacker after nearly becoming a bust his first few years in the league.  Georgia rookie Justin Houston may see some time in pass rush situations as well.

At cornerback Brandon Flowers is one of the better cover men in the league, and Brandon Carr is a guy who won’t make the big mistake.  Javier Arenas could develop into a starting-level corner as well.  Eric Berry is going to be a superstar at safety; it’s as simple as that.

With talent, youth, and a good mix of veteran leadership all over its roster, the Chiefs should prove that winning last year’s AFC West title was no fluke.

Biggest Strengths: Playmakers abound on both sides of the ball—Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, and more.

Biggest Weaknesses: The defensive front hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, First in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in AFC West

San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers have certainly wasted a lot of time and early season games the past few years trying to get their act together when they should have been dominating a once weak AFC West.  Now LaDanian Tomlinson is long gone, Antonio Gates is great but aging, and Shawne Merriman’s days as “Lights Out” are a distant memory as he sits at the bottom of the Bills’ depth chart.

Even though there’s still talent on the roster, it’s not the type that has people saying, “If they fulfill their potential, they should compete for the Super Bowl.”  If the Chargers live up to their full potential they should win 10 games and compete with the Chiefs for the AFC West, a far cry from Super Bowl aspirations.

Phillip Rivers is great, and there’s no two ways about that.  Rivers puts up huge numbers no matter who his receivers are.  Throwing to practice squad players last year he still produced with the best of them.  Rivers has posted three-straight seasons with a 100 passer rating and has started all sixteen games in five consecutive years.

First-round choice Ryan Mathews showed flashes of speed, power, and elusiveness last year when he wasn’t dinged up, which wasn’t very often in his rookie campaign.

Gates, as mentioned, is still a star, and if he’s fully healthy this year the Charger offense could again be a top-5 unit.  Vincent Jackson has huge ability as a receiver, deep threat, and red zone monster, but I question where his head is at and if he will he stay healthy.  Patrick Crayton and Malcolm Floyd provide solid support but are strictly second and third options.  They can be positives if Jackson and Gates are healthy and drawing double teams.

The offensive line has talent but has played inconsistently at times, however Rivers is so sound, tough, and adept at getting rid of the ball that he makes their job look easier.  Nick Hardwick is a very good center and Marcus McNeill is a big talent at left tackle.  The guard tandem of Louis Vasquez and Kris Dielman is good when healthy.

The whole question about this offense is health.  If healthy, Rivers, Matthews, Jackson, Gates, Floyd, and a talented offensive line could make this a great offense.  But if the line breaks down, Jackson starts pouting, or Gates gets injured, it could be Rivers against the world yet again.

San Diego found an absolute diamond in the rough in nose tackle Antonio Garay.  Immoveable at the point of attack, Garay can really disrupt in the backfield, unusual for a 3-4 nose.  Luis Castillo is a very good 3-4 end as well: sound in his assignments and athletic enough to provide a little pass rush.  Second-year behemoth Cam Thomas and this year’s first-round pick Corey Liuget will join veteran Jacques Cesaire in rounding out the defensive line rotation.

Larry English, the supposed heir apparent to Shawne Merriman, has been a huge disappointment after being taken in the first round three years ago.  With just 5 sacks in two years, English has to step up to better balance sack artist Shaun Phillips, who posted 11 sacks last year.

At inside linebacker, Takeo Spikes still has something left in the tank.  He’s an excellent tackler, but he lacks range.  Stephen Cooper is a thumper inside as well and he, Spikes, Donald Butler, and rookie Jonas Mouton should all see action inside.

The corner spot is dicey where 32-year-old Quentin Jammer’s the best of an unspectacular bunch.  Antoine Cason must live up to his status as a high draft pick or the Chargers could have huge trouble covering.  Eric Weddle was a good re-sign at safety, and if by some miracle Bob Sanders can stay on the field, the Chargers could have a nice tandem.

The pressure is most on English and Cason, because if they don’t step up, opposing teams will have time to throw and open men to throw to.

Biggest Strengths: Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Chargers’ pass defense looks weak without a very strong pass rush or talented cover men.

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC West

Oakland Raiders

Given the talent on the Oakland Raiders’ roster and the strides they made last year, generally this would be a team I would regard as on the rise.  Yet, as long as Al Davis plays the part of Kim Jong-il in the front office, it’s hard to envision real progress.

Heading into last year I was a pretty big Jason Campbell advocate.  I always felt he got a pretty raw deal considering his career passer rating of 82.5 and all-around solid numbers.  He even put up an 84.5 rating last season.  Now I’m not sure what to think.  Campbell still has a really nice arm and is a smart guy, but he’s never really taken that next step toward elite status.  It could just be that Oakland and Washington are about the most dysfunctional environments for a quarterback to develop.  Still, if Campbell’s not a plus, he certainly is not a negative for his team; he won’t lose the game.

It's the least surprising move in the history of transactions that the Raiders picked up Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft.  A sick athlete with nothing but raw potential and no discernible skills or mental awareness for his given position, he should fit in perfectly with Al Davis' crew.  I'm not sure Pryor will ever see the field as a starting quarterback except through injury or Oakland's curiosity to see what he can do in a game.  But hell, he ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, so he has to wear the silver and black.

Darren McFadden, though still dogged a bit by injuries, finally made good on the huge ability that made him a top-5 pick, rushing for 1,157 yards last season.

Davis has all the speed he could ever ask for in wide receivers Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey.  Though Heyward-Bey was the higher pick in his draft and has been in the league a year longer, he hasn’t shown the potential of Ford.  Perhaps in his third season he can really dig in and make some progress.  Another receiving option, Louis Murphy is a physical and fast wideout that is only 24, and I like his chances of becoming the number one wideout more than I do the former first rounder Heyward-Bey’s.

Losing talented tight end Zach Miller to Seattle really hurts this offense’s development.  Miller was their best route runner and had the best hands on the team.  New York Giant import Kevin Boss is a decent replacement, but he’s not as talented as Miller.

Robert Gallery had become a solid guard in the league, but Seattle stole him too, so Oakland lost two big components of their offense to Pete Carroll’s crew.  Oakland invested three draft choices in the offensive line this year, so that group is a serious work in progress.

Though losing Nnamdi Asomugha hurts in the short-term, paying $15 million a year for a 30-year-old corner isn’t smart for a team unless they are on the cusp of winning a championship, which the Raiders certainly aren’t.

Richard Seymour is still a stud as a 3-4 end, and Matt Shaughnessy is developing into a really nice player with pass rush ability.  Tommy Kelly might not be worth all the money Oakland pays him, but he’s a very good player and completes an excellent defensive front that gets to the quarterback surprisingly often.  Veteran John Henderson and youngster Lamarr Houston provide solid depth.

Rolando McClain had a decent rookie year, but he wasn’t spectacular.  He has major ability, and if he takes a big step in development this could be a very good front seven.  Kameron Wimbley provides consistent pressure off the edge and makes a nice pair with McClain.  The rest of the linebackers are unremarkable.

Michael Huff is probably the best player in a secondary that features a lot of unproven players and four rookies.

Biggest Strengths: Darren McFadden is an electric playmaker, and the defensive line has much promise.

Biggest Weaknesses: Al Davis, and for now, the Nnamdi Asomugha-less secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Denver Broncos

Enough people are shouting, “I told you so” about Tim Tebow, now third on the Denver Broncos’ depth chart behind the supposed-to-have-been-traded Kyle Orton and the ever milquetoast Brady Quinn, that I feel no need to take a shot at him.  For new coach John Fox, Tebow is simply not his guy, and that probably spells long-term trouble for his prospects as a starter in Denver.

Looking at the real QB1, Orton is probably the best “game manager” in football.  Of all the passers that neither win or lose the game for a team, Orton is at the top of that heap.  Accurate, smart, and competitive, Orton doesn’t have a big arm, but he gets the ball out and limits turnovers.  In thirteen games last year Orton threw for 3,653 yards, 20 scores, and compiled an 87.5 passer rating.  Plenty of teams would kill for those numbers.

Running back Knowshon Moreno has been mostly a disappointment so far, especially considering he went in the first-round a couple years back.  In a John Fox offense he should get more carries than in the past, more opportunities to prove his worth.

Brandon Lloyd had a huge season last year, but now 30 years old, you have to wonder if his breakout was just a flash in the pan.  Last year’s other first round pick, Demaryius Thomas, did very little in his rookie campaign, and though he has big talent, I’m sure Denver wishes they could go back and pick Dez Bryant, who went two slots after Thomas to the Cowboys.

Tight end is a logjam of unproven players, and losing right tackle Ryan Harris to the Eagles breaks up what was this team’s strong point, their bookend tackles Ryan Clady and Harris.  Clady is the only proven player that remains up front, and though he’s a truly outstanding left tackle, he can’t block three guys by himself.

Elvis Dumervil’s return to health and the addition of top pick Von Miller could make Denver’s pass rush one of the NFL’s most dangerous.  Veterans Ty Warren and Broderick Bunkley provide some talent and experience to the defensive front, though the defensive line still has a long way to go to be a top flight group.

29-year-old linebacker DJ Williams is still a playmaker, and he should form an exceptional, athletic trio with Dumervil and Miller covering ground and making plays.

Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are now both eligible for AARP benefits, though both are still above-average-to-good players for their respective positions.

Biggest Strengths: Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller will punish quarterbacks off the edge.

Biggest Weaknesses: Denver lacks offensive weapons and punch on the defensive line.  Overall there’s just not a whole lot of talent.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC West

--from @AdamHocking