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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

August 29, 2011

AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 
Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 
Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 
Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 
Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 
Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 
Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 
Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 
Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 
Pittsburgh Steelers
 
Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 
Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 
Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 
The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 
The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 
Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 
Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 
Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 
Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 
Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 
Cleveland Browns
 
This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 
Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 
The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 
Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 
Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 
Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 
Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 
Cincinnati Bengals
 
The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 
Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 
Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 
AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 
The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 
Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 
Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 
This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 
Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 
Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 
Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 
Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

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