Ah the predictability of college football. We know who is going to be good. Florida, Texas, Michigan, Penn State…wait…well we thought we knew but…ok, we don't know anything at all. But what we can say is that this is the most wide open championship race in recent memory. We can also say that there really is no team that appears head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Oregon has looked explosive on offense, but how good is their defense? And if they make the title game, how will four weeks off effect this rhythm offense?
Boise State again is dominating, but who are they really beating? Ditto for TCU and Utah.
Auburn seems to be winning due to the immaculate singular talents of Cam Newton, but is he masking a host of other deficiencies for this Auburn squad?
Then there are the powerhouse programs that all have one loss: Alabama, Wisconsin, Stanford, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arizona, LSU, Missouri, Michigan State…yikes. I think we are going to need Winston Wolfe to clean up this mess because we certainly won't have the clarity and sanity of a playoff to assist us in organizing this jumble.
Every team mentioned can make a compelling argument for their inclusion in the National Championship discussion, so how can we go about deciphering whose argument is tightest? Thankfully, we have four more weeks of games to help winnow the wheat from the chaff, but we are still likely to have a logjam at the top.
To help categorize and organize, let's take a look at the true title contenders and their remaining schedules to help predict what might happen in this ultimately unpredictable sport.
Auburn: They have home games against Chattanooga and Georgia the next two weeks, which they will likely win. But then comes the Iron Bowl at Alabama. I don't see Auburn winning that game, and if they don't, 'Bama might replace them by going to the SEC title game against whatever drivel the SEC East coughs up.
Championship prediction: One loss will happen, but they will have a shot at redemption in the SEC title game.
Alabama: While many still believe this could be college football's best team, they have quite a hill to climb. They go to #12 LSU next week and then host #21 Mississippi State. In the last week of the season, they host top-ranked Auburn. If they can run the table and win the SEC title game, they would have a compelling argument, even over an undefeated Oregon team.
Championship prediction: Two losses will be one too many.
Oregon: The most explosive team in college football, this team can outscore anyone, but they have some serious tests to pass. They should beat Washington at home next week with relative ease, but a road trip to Cal and a home game against #15 Arizona will be tough. Not to mention they go to bitter rival Oregon State to end the season.
Championship prediction: I see them losing a game. Can they get in with one loss?
TCU and Utah: Both teams are undefeated and one will have a chance to rocket up the standings by the end of next week, as they matchup head-to-head in Utah on Saturday. These are two dominant teams that play in a better conference than Boise State, so who knows how high they can climb by going undefeated, but they may be too far down in the polls and in the minds of voters to end up in the title game.
Championship prediction: Whoever wins this game will have a shot, and for some reason, I like TCU on the road over Utah.
Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford, LSU, and Nebraska: There are other big conference, one loss teams, but these are the teams highest in the polls and have the best chance of rising to a top-2 BCS position.
Oklahoma has three tough road games left on their schedule and a likely showdown (if they make it) with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. That's too much to ask for a talented but not there yet team.
With Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, and Michigan left on Wisconsin's schedule, the safe money is that they will finish 11-1. They'll probably have a higher BCS rating than of all these other one-loss teams especially considering a big home win over the Buckeyes and a road victory over Iowa.
Ohio State must still travel to Iowa, and I don't like their chances in that game with a poor passing quarterback. I think they finish 10-2 and outside of the title hunt.
Stanford has a tough slate remaining, but it will be favored in each game it plays. However, even if they finish 11-1, they won't leapfrog Wisconsin or an undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah.
LSU has been winning by the skin of their teeth and hosts Alabama next week, then travels to Arkansas to end their season. Even if they nab those two victories, they would have to win the SEC title game, and three major victories are too much to ask from a team that can't pass the ball.
Nebraska should win all their remaining games and would be at least even favorites against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. A win over OU would put them squarely in national contention.
So if you could follow that—I couldn't—we seem to have shaken out some contenders. According to my forecast, the following power teams will finish with one loss: Wisconsin, Oregon, Auburn, Stanford, and Nebraska. We will also have undefeated Boise St. and TCU. We may well see Boise and TCU atop the BCS for a few weeks with other teams losing, but their strength of schedule may catch up with them as big powers collide in conference title games.
Boise St. will get leapt by TCU because TCU is creaming people, will beat Utah, and plays in a tougher conference. TCU will secure a spot in the championship game. Oregon will have a late loss that will drop them below Wisconsin, Auburn, and Nebraska, while Stanford may have too much ground to make up. Nebraska and Auburn will benefit by having conference championship games, though only Auburn will win their title game. That leaves Wisconsin and Auburn, and since the SEC rules the roost in college football and voters will get one more look at Newton, Auburn will go ahead of Wisconsin in the polls and meet TCU in the championship. Got that?
Bottom Line: TCU v Auburn for all the marbles
--from Adam
Oregon has looked explosive on offense, but how good is their defense? And if they make the title game, how will four weeks off effect this rhythm offense?
Boise State again is dominating, but who are they really beating? Ditto for TCU and Utah.
Auburn seems to be winning due to the immaculate singular talents of Cam Newton, but is he masking a host of other deficiencies for this Auburn squad?
Then there are the powerhouse programs that all have one loss: Alabama, Wisconsin, Stanford, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arizona, LSU, Missouri, Michigan State…yikes. I think we are going to need Winston Wolfe to clean up this mess because we certainly won't have the clarity and sanity of a playoff to assist us in organizing this jumble.
Every team mentioned can make a compelling argument for their inclusion in the National Championship discussion, so how can we go about deciphering whose argument is tightest? Thankfully, we have four more weeks of games to help winnow the wheat from the chaff, but we are still likely to have a logjam at the top.
To help categorize and organize, let's take a look at the true title contenders and their remaining schedules to help predict what might happen in this ultimately unpredictable sport.
Auburn: They have home games against Chattanooga and Georgia the next two weeks, which they will likely win. But then comes the Iron Bowl at Alabama. I don't see Auburn winning that game, and if they don't, 'Bama might replace them by going to the SEC title game against whatever drivel the SEC East coughs up.
Championship prediction: One loss will happen, but they will have a shot at redemption in the SEC title game.
Alabama: While many still believe this could be college football's best team, they have quite a hill to climb. They go to #12 LSU next week and then host #21 Mississippi State. In the last week of the season, they host top-ranked Auburn. If they can run the table and win the SEC title game, they would have a compelling argument, even over an undefeated Oregon team.
Championship prediction: Two losses will be one too many.
Oregon: The most explosive team in college football, this team can outscore anyone, but they have some serious tests to pass. They should beat Washington at home next week with relative ease, but a road trip to Cal and a home game against #15 Arizona will be tough. Not to mention they go to bitter rival Oregon State to end the season.
Championship prediction: I see them losing a game. Can they get in with one loss?
TCU and Utah: Both teams are undefeated and one will have a chance to rocket up the standings by the end of next week, as they matchup head-to-head in Utah on Saturday. These are two dominant teams that play in a better conference than Boise State, so who knows how high they can climb by going undefeated, but they may be too far down in the polls and in the minds of voters to end up in the title game.
Championship prediction: Whoever wins this game will have a shot, and for some reason, I like TCU on the road over Utah.
Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford, LSU, and Nebraska: There are other big conference, one loss teams, but these are the teams highest in the polls and have the best chance of rising to a top-2 BCS position.
Oklahoma has three tough road games left on their schedule and a likely showdown (if they make it) with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. That's too much to ask for a talented but not there yet team.
With Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, and Michigan left on Wisconsin's schedule, the safe money is that they will finish 11-1. They'll probably have a higher BCS rating than of all these other one-loss teams especially considering a big home win over the Buckeyes and a road victory over Iowa.
Ohio State must still travel to Iowa, and I don't like their chances in that game with a poor passing quarterback. I think they finish 10-2 and outside of the title hunt.
Stanford has a tough slate remaining, but it will be favored in each game it plays. However, even if they finish 11-1, they won't leapfrog Wisconsin or an undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah.
LSU has been winning by the skin of their teeth and hosts Alabama next week, then travels to Arkansas to end their season. Even if they nab those two victories, they would have to win the SEC title game, and three major victories are too much to ask from a team that can't pass the ball.
Nebraska should win all their remaining games and would be at least even favorites against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. A win over OU would put them squarely in national contention.
So if you could follow that—I couldn't—we seem to have shaken out some contenders. According to my forecast, the following power teams will finish with one loss: Wisconsin, Oregon, Auburn, Stanford, and Nebraska. We will also have undefeated Boise St. and TCU. We may well see Boise and TCU atop the BCS for a few weeks with other teams losing, but their strength of schedule may catch up with them as big powers collide in conference title games.
Boise St. will get leapt by TCU because TCU is creaming people, will beat Utah, and plays in a tougher conference. TCU will secure a spot in the championship game. Oregon will have a late loss that will drop them below Wisconsin, Auburn, and Nebraska, while Stanford may have too much ground to make up. Nebraska and Auburn will benefit by having conference championship games, though only Auburn will win their title game. That leaves Wisconsin and Auburn, and since the SEC rules the roost in college football and voters will get one more look at Newton, Auburn will go ahead of Wisconsin in the polls and meet TCU in the championship. Got that?
Bottom Line: TCU v Auburn for all the marbles
--from Adam
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