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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

November 24, 2010

Separation Sunday

To date, this NFL season has been labeled a year with no great teams.  "Mediocrity" has been the buzz word.  That has largely been justified, and plenty of mediocrity was on display Sunday.  Yet, the good teams were very good on this day as well.  It appears we may have a crop of 8-10 very good teams, a lot of solid or average teams, and zero great teams.  It's fun to have a 2007 Patriots juggernaut every once in a while, but as a pure football fan, I think it'll be fun to see a large group of evenly matched teams battle it out in the playoffs.  It makes for better, closer games where execution will be at a premium because opposing teams' talent will be equal.  It's a great time of the year when teams are hitting their strides, and there are a lot of big games still to come.


The Top Tier: There is no single team I can justifiably say is the best in football at this point, so let's examine the upper echelon of NFL teams this year and how they fared Sunday.


New England Patriots (8-2): They outlast the Colts as Peyton Manning led a scary comeback.  At 8-2, they are tied for the lead in the AFC East and for the best record in the NFL.  And they just bested their arch conference rivals.  Tom Brady is a top MVP candidate, and we've seen shades of the 2001 Patriots: a largely no-name defense, a potent intermediate passing game, and anonymous players running the football.  Bill Belichick is at his hoodie evil genius best right now, and Brady has 25 straight wins at home.  There's a huge game with the Jets looming in two weeks, but the rest of the slate looks pretty soft for New England to finish out the season.

New York Jets (8-2): Both top AFC East teams have looked underwhelming at times, but they keep winning.  Mark Sanchez moved the Jets the length of the field in 45 seconds to take a late lead, and the Jets probably ended the Texans' season.  It hasn't been pretty, or all that convincing, but 8-2 is hard to argue with.

Atlanta Falcons (8-2): This appears to be the NFL's most balanced offense.  Matt Ryan threw for 259 yards, 2 scores, and no picks while Michael Turner accumulated 131 yards on the ground.  Their defense excelled against a Rams offense that plays very well at home.  It appears the Atlanta defense is solid enough to not screw this thing up for the offense.  Perhaps that's even underselling them; they're allowing a respectable 19 points per game.

Green Bay Packers (7-3): They've looked as good as any team in the league over the past four weeks.  The Packers and Bears defenses have allowed the exact same amount of points through ten games, but the Packer offense has outscored their Chicago counterparts by 61 points.  Crushing the hated Vikings to a chorus of "Fire Childress" while Brett Favre melted down made this win all the sweeter, and the Packers look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders.  We'll find out just how good Green Bay is next week when they head to Atlanta to take on Ryan at the Georgia Dome.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3): The Steelers bounced back with a win against a physical team, good sign after a bad loss to New England.  Ben Roethlisberger made plays all day despite injuries to his offensive line.  They have a huge game at Baltimore in two weeks.

Baltimore Ravens (7-3): The Ravens easily won a game they should have.  They host a surprisingly big matchup next week against the Buccaneers, and then they host the Steelers.  I can't tell who I like better in the AFC North, but I tend to think Roethlisberger will make more plays than Joe Flacco in a tight game.

Philadelphia Eagles (7-3): I like that the Eagles won a wild and rough division game.  They were at home, but still, they overcame turnovers and some inconsistency and found a way to make more crucial plays down the stretch.  They also controlled the ball for the better portion of the game; that's a good sign for a team that is usually a quick strike unit.  They will have to sustain drives in the playoffs regardless of Michael Vick's brilliance, and they put together some nice long drives in this game against the Giants.  LeSean McCoy is so much better than I gave him credit for to start the season.  He is so elusive, gets to top speed incredibly fast, and he can do everything; he's on pace for 82 catches this year.  The Eagles have a bright future if their stars can stay healthy.  Vick is an MVP candidate, DeSean Jackson is the most dangerous man on the planet, and Jeremy Maclin can burn.  Maclin also showed ability to go over the middle and get the ball against the Giants.  Throw in McCoy, Brent Celek, and the offensive line's improved play, and this team can beat anybody.  The defense feels it can attack like it wants to with such an explosive offense helping their cause.  With their remaining schedule, I think the Eagles could go 5-1 and get to 12 wins.

New York Giants (6-4): I still think this team has elite potential.  I won't punish them too much for losing a tough game at division rival Philly.  Eli Manning isn't great, but he's better than most, and the Giants receivers are big, strong, and talented.  Ahmad Bradshaw is an elite running back, but Brandon Jacobs hasn't been the force he can be.  He's averaging 5.2 yards a carry, so maybe he just needs more touches.  The Giants are best when they lead with the run anyway.  Their next three games are home to the Jaguars and Redskins, and then they travel to play a Vikings team that is in disarray.  Then they host Philly where the division may very well be on the line again.


Gimme a Week or Two: I'm not totally sold on the following teams, but with another nice win or two, they could move up a level.

New Orleans Saints (7-3): The defending champs have righted the ship impressively, winning three in a row and four of the last five.  I can't quite believe in them as Super Bowl contenders because their running game is lacking and Drew Brees has been very good, but not great like last year.  The defense has been spotty as well, though this team certainly has the talent to go on a run.  When Drew Brees gets hot, this team can beat anybody.  With the Cowboys, Bengals, and Rams coming up, the Saints have a chance to put together a nice winning streak and build momentum heading into the last month of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3): They haven't beaten a single really impressive opponent, but in a year like this, winning consistently against any competition deserves praise.  They have been reliable and seem to improve each week.  This week their maligned run defense stepped up to shut down Frank Gore.  They go to Baltimore, and then come home to host the Falcons over the next two weeks.  We'll know who this team is after that stretch.

Chicago Bears (7-3): I have less faith in this team than I do in the Bucs because Josh Freeman is more reliable than Jay Cutler.  The Bears' defense has been very good, and they finally got Matt Forte going against the Dolphins this week.  Johnny Knox is coming on, and Greg Olsen is a solid target.  I still think their porous offensive line and turnover-happy quarterback will hold the Bears back from big things.  The Bears get the Eagles, Patriots, Jets, and Packers still this year; I can't see them winning more than one of those games.

Indianapolis Colts (6-4): Their record isn't great but I'm not going to kill a team for losing a close game at New England.  Peyton Manning hasn't been at his insane level the past few weeks, but I'll give the GOAT a break.  This team could easily win the rest of the games on its schedule.


Still in consideration: Washington Redskins (barely), Seattle Seahawks (by default), Kansas City Chiefs (nice bounce back win to reclaim control of the AFC North), Oakland Raiders (now that was Raiders football), San Diego Chargers (only because Phillip Rivers is unbelievably good), and Jacksonville Jaguars (just win baby)


Though 5-5, I'm pronouncing the Dolphins and Titans dead due to quarterback injuries and inconsistencies.  The rest of the league should be ashamed of themselves and should start jockeying for draft status.


--from Adam

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