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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

November 7, 2010

Sunday Slobber Knockers: First Half Review

Through eight weeks of the NFL season, we've seen some great action, but the best is surely yet to come as the playoffs inch closer and eventually spring forth upon us.  But since we are halfway through the season, we at Hill 364 Sports take pause to review the events that have transpired.  We'll start by each filling out a first half All-Pro roster, and then like our First Quarter Review, we'll each answer six questions for each other.  Now let's get cracking.

Adam's All-ProsPosition Eric's All-Pros
Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (IND), Matt Ryan (ATL)
3 QB
Peyton Manning (IND), Kyle Orton (DEN), Philip Rivers (SD)
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG), Arian Foster (HOU), Adrian Peterson (MIN)
3 RB
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG), Adrian Peterson (MIN), Michael Turner (ATL)
LeRon McClain (BAL), Mike Tolbert (SD)
2 FB
Greg Jones (JAC), Vonta Leach (HOU)
Anquan Boldin (BAL), Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Hakeem Nicks (NYG), Roddy White (ATL)
4 WR
Andre Johnson (HOU), Calvin Johnson (DET), Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Brandon Marshall (MIA)
Vernon Davis (SF), Antonio Gates (SD), Aaron Hernandez (NE)
3 TE
Antonio Gates (SD), Dusitn Keller (NYJ), Jason Witten (DAL)
D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ), Jake Long (MIA), Joe Thomas (CLE)
3 OT
Jake Long (MIA), Michael Oher (BAL), Joe Thomas (CLE)
Davin Joseph (TB), Carl Nicks (NO), Josh Sitton (GB)
3 OG
Jahri Evans (NO), Steve Neal (NE), Josh Sitton (GB)
Shaun O'Hara (NYG), Alex Mack (CLE)
2 C
Nick Mangold (NYJ), Maurkice Pouncey (PIT)
Trent Cole (PHI), Tamba Hali (KC), Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
3 DE
John Abraham (ATL), Julius Peppers (CHI), Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
Haloti Ngata (BAL), Ndamukong Suh (DET), Justin Tuck (NYG)
3 DT
Richard Seymour (OAK), Ndamukong Suh (DET), Vince Wilfork (NE)
Clay Matthews (GB), Brian Orakpo (WAS), DJ Williams (DEN)
3 OLB
James Harrison (PIT), Clay Matthews (GB), Brian Orakpo (WAS)
Ray Lewis (BAL), Jerod Mayo (NE), Patrick Willis (SF)
3 ILB
Karlos Dansby (MIA), Lawrence Timmons (PIT), Stephen Tulloch (TEN)
Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Brandon Flowers (KC), Corey Webster (NYG)
3 CB
Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Vontae Davis (MIA), DeAngelo Hall (WAS)
Michael Griffin (TEN), Earl Thomas (SEA)
2 FS
Patrick Chung (NE), Michael Griffin (TEN)
LaRon Landry (WAS), Troy Polamalu (PIT)
2 SS
LaRon Landry (WAS), Troy Polamalu (PIT)
Josh Scobee (JAC)
1 K
Josh Scobee (JAC)
Shane Lechler (OAK)
1 P
Donnie Jones (STL)
Devin Hester (CHI)
1 KR/PR
Leon Washington (SEA)


Eric's questions for Adam

Eric: What are your thoughts on Randy Moss and his whole situation?

Adam: First and foremost, I think Moss was a bit stunned when he was shipped out of New England.  Moss is a jerk, but he isn't dumb.  He saw the disarray in Minnesota, and when things aren't ideal for Moss, he quits.  He always has and always will.  He still has plenty of talent with plenty of speed to stretch defenses and draw attention to his side of the field.  The question that has always followed Moss is whether or not his on-field production offsets his nature as a locker room cancer.  Generally the answer has been, when Moss is on a good team things are fine, and when he's on a bad team it's a disaster.

Another angle to consider here is the void of leadership in Minnesota.  I would be surprised if Brad Childress' wife thought he was a good coach at this point.  Childress has opened himself up to unlimited criticism by pursuing Brett Favre the last two years then criticizing his play and now cutting Moss in what seems like a kneejerk reaction.  Childress seems like a man desperate to put his stamp on this team, but the tighter he squeezes his locker room, the more it slips away.  Favre hasn't been much of a leader either, preferring to play tag in the blame game with Childress rather than take command of the team and become the unquestioned leader he could be.

The final element of this story is how Moss will do in Tennessee.  Jeff Fisher is as good a coach as there is in the NFL.  Additionally, the Titans are 5-3 and right in the mix for a playoff spot.  They have a great running game, so Moss should get some favorable coverages and a chance to contribute on a good team.  The Titans are a much more solid organization than are the Vikings, so I think this will be a decent fit for the remainder of the year.


E: Are the 5-2 Bucs for real?

A: If by "for real" you mean are they Super Bowl contenders, then my answer is an emphatic "No."  They are not good enough on defense, running the ball, or experienced enough at quarterback and wide receiver to make that type of a run.  The Bucs' point differential is -27, not reminiscent of a Super Bowl squad.  None of the teams they have beat (Rams, Browns, Panthers, Bengals, and Cardinals) are above .500.

Now, if the question is can this team sneak into the playoffs then my answer is "Yes."  The NFC is so watered down this year that I think this team could get to 9-10 wins and easily land in the postseason.

They play Carolina at home, the 49ers on the road, the Lions at home, the Redksins on the road, and the Seahawks at home still this year.  Those are not all their games, but those are their very winnable games.  Ultimately I see this team headed for a fall, but with their great start, 9-7 is still very reasonable.


E: This is a lost season for the Dallas Cowboys.  How do they improve moving forward?

A: Whether or not Wade Phillips is to blame for the debacle in Dallas, he is going to be fired.  I think that's the right move just because the Cowboys need a new voice and a new direction.  Those players aren't going to listen to a guy who has never gotten them past the divisional round of the playoffs.

I think they also need to unload some of their veteran players for draft picks like the Patriots have done in recent years.  They need to decide who their core players are and build around them.  Then, clean house by getting rid of the guys that won't be around for the long haul.

Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Mike Jenkins should be their core.  I could see them dumping/trading Roy Williams, Terrence Newman, Leonard Davis, and even Tony Romo.  Romo has had plenty of time to lead this team to big things, and it hasn't happened.  He will be 31 next year and could fetch a high draft pick in return, so Dallas could go with a start from scratch approach.  Like with Phillips, I can't say that the Cowboys' struggles are Romo's fault, but sometimes a shock to the system or a change in the culture is necessary.

There is still an abundance of talent on this team.  Bryant and Austin will be a dominant combination, but they need to be complemented by a power running game.  Dallas just doesn't have the offensive line to consistently run the ball, and I think if they could improve that unit, this whole team would be much better.

I also think Dallas needs help at the safety position and on the defensive line where Ratliff is their only impact player.

The way to fix entire units is through the draft, and the more picks, the better.


E: What's the best division in football?

A: The AFC East pops out because they have three really good teams in the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins, but the Bills ultimately take this division out of the running.  I will say the AFC South is best because they have two very good teams at the top in the Colts and Titans, the Texans can beat anybody on a given day, and the Jaguars have found a way to win half their games.


E: The NFL hands out a number of awards each season.  Based on first half performances, who would you give those awards to?

A: MVP: Tom Brady

No Moss, no running game, no defense, no problem.  The Pats are 6-1 with every right to claim they are the best team in the NFL.

Offensive Player of the Year: Ahmad Bradshaw

He has been terrific all year and provides the Giants with the balance that can make them Super Bowl contenders.

Defensive Player of the Year: Osi Umenyiora

Umenyiora has 8 sacks and 7 forced fumbles for the league's fourth-ranked defense. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sam Bradford

The Rams are on pace for an 8-8 season after going 1-15 last year.  On pace for about 3,300 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 16 picks, Bradford has this whole franchise believing they can win.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ndamukong Suh

With 6.5 sacks, two interceptions, and a touchdown return, this guy is running away with this award.  On a better team, Suh could be in the running for Defensive MVP. 

Coach of the Year:  Mike Singletary…just kidding, Raheem Morris

Certainly the Buccaneers are not the best in the NFC like Morris says, but at 5-2, this team is a far cry from last year's awful squad.


E: Who's going to the Super Bowl?

A: I'll start with my Final Four.

NFC Title Game: Giants at Packers
 
The Packers will be in this game because their division is bad, allowing them to win a lot of games.  Aaron Rodgers gives the Packers a chance to win in each game, and they seem to be finding their rhythm despite all their injuries.  They could get Al Harris and Atari Bigby back soon, and the offensive line is playing well.

The Giants will be here because they have great balance on offense with three very good wideouts, a solid signal caller, and a very good ground attack.  Their offensive line is playing great.  The defense harasses the quarterback like no other.

Prediction:  The Packers will ride the deep pass, Rodgers' mobility, and rocking Lambeau Field to the Super Bowl.

AFC Title game:  Steelers at Patriots

With Peyton Manning and the Colts banged up, the Ravens not quite clicking, and the Jets' offense not quite ready, the two most seasoned and healthy teams will meet in the AFC Championship.

Tom Brady will use the short quick pass to combat the Steelers ferocious pass rush.  Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy after missing the first quarter of the season, and he will lead an efficient attack balanced by the bruising Rashard Mendenhall.
 
Prediction: Ultimately, the most balanced team in the league, Pittsburgh, has more ways to win, and will.

Super Bowl:  Two of the most historic franchises in football will battle for the Lombardi Trophy.  The Packers will struggle to block Blitzburgh and won't be able to run the ball.  Roethlisberger will scramble and make plays in the clutch, but Clay Matthews will get him a few times, and Charles Woodson may pick him off a time or two.

Green Bay has figured out how to play with injuries, and I just believe in the right arm of Rodgers.  Title Town brings the trophy home.  Packers win 28-27.

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Adam's Questions for Eric

Adam: Who wins the NFC West?

Eric: Can I say "no one?"

I kid.

But I will go out on a bit of a limb based on season expectations and say that the St. Louis Rams will end up on top of the NFC West.  They are a young team that has a fast, athletic defense guided by Steve Spagnuolo and led on the field by James Laurinaitis.  The Rams also feature the most balanced offense in the division with Steven Jackson on the ground and Sam Bradford picking up receivers all over the field.  The Edward Jones Dome can be a tough place to play for visitors, especially when the Rams have an excited fan base, which they do these days, following the youngster Bradford.

All the teams in the NFC West have flaws that run deep, but the worst thing the Rams have going against them is youth.  That's not so bad considering the lack of quarterbacks in Arizona, playmakers in Seattle, and coaching in San Francisco.


A: Are the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs more a result of a soft schedule, or will this team contend come playoff time?

E: The Chiefs do have a soft schedule—you get help from the schedule makers when you finish 4-12—in which they can build enough of a lead to take the division title.  I think that could very well happen.  What I don't think though, is that they'll make noise in the playoffs.

The NFL is unquestionably a quarterback's league; I just don't have enough faith in Matt Cassel.  If the Chiefs needed to manufacture a drive to win a playoff game, I doubt that Cassel has what it would take to get it done.  Both Cassel and his group of pass catchers still lack the confidence, awareness, and straight-up talent to win a big game in crunch time.

If the Chiefs make the postseason, they will undoubtedly do so as a division winner—no Wild Card will come out of the AFC West; I guarantee it—meaning that their first playoff game will be at home.  That would help the Chiefs' chances tremendously, but they would certainly struggle against potential Wild Cards Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, and Jets.


A: How many games will the Dallas Cowboys win this year?

E: I'm going to give gut predictions based on the rest of the schedule and see where that gets us.

Go to the Pick-Down to see how I feel about their chances this week.  After that they travel to the Meadowlands to lose to the division rival Giants.  I'll say they beat Detroit the next week, giving them two wins.  Then come Thanksgiving and the New Orleans Saints.  I'll say the Cowboys put their pride on the line and win this one, giving them an actual winning streak and three wins on the season.  After that, they have no chance in Indianapolis.  Then that gets us to six weeks after Tony Romo's initial diagnosis of a 6-8 week injury.  I'll say he plays that week when Philly comes to Big D…and loses.  By the time the Redskins come to town Week 15, I boldly predict that Rex Grossman will be the starter.  The Cowboys will win their fourth game.  Then Dallas plays in Arizona on Christmas day and ends the season in Philadelphia the week after.  I say they go out with a whimper and lose both games.

The Dallas Cowboys will win four games this season.


A: Is Mark Sanchez good enough for the Jets to win it all?

E: In a word, "Yes."

Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Terry Bradshaw: these are Super Bowl winning quarterbacks that won championships behind strong running games and even stronger defenses.  The Jets fit that mold.

By my count, Sanchez has only had two bad games this season.  In Week 1 against Baltimore, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer called the game way too conservatively and never allowed Sanchez to stretch the field or find a rhythm.  The Ravens' defense might have had something to do with that too.  The other poor showing came against Green Bay this last Sunday.  The throws were there for Sanchez, he just didn't make them.  With more study and more experience, Sanchez will make those plays.

Sanchez is coming off a season in which he led his team to the AFC Championship game.  It is not much of a stretch, with the talent around him, to think Sanchez can improve upon that result.


A: Who is the best team in the NFC?

E: I'll say it's the New York football Giants.  That statement could very well change between now and the end of the season, but the Giants are playing great football right now.  Ever since sacking Jay Cutler nine times in a half, the defense has been on fire.  Manning has found some real threats in Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham, and oh, by the way, Ahmad Bradshaw is second in the NFC rushing.


A: Are the New England Patriots as good as their 6-1 record would indicate?

E: Do I think they're the best team in the league?  Not really, but they're still pretty fucking good.  You can never count against a team with Bill Belichick roaming the sidelines and Tom Brady behind center.

They have a young defense that is still looking for an identity, but I like their safety tandem of Brandon Meriwether and Patrick Chung, Vince Wilfork is still one of the best defensive linemen in all of football, and rookie linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham complement Jerod Mayo very well.

The offense does miss Randy Moss, but they are getting good production out of guys like Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, and Aaron Hernandez to fill the gap.

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