1. Who wins the AFC West?
Really this is such a tough one. If Peyton Manning is his old self, they are at least even favorites to win the division. Still, whose to say that Phillip Rivers isn't the best passer in the division even if Manning is healthy. I'll rule out the Raiders and save us all the time of an explanation. They're the Raiders for God's sake. In the end I'll take the Chiefs. Matt Cassel doesn't make my heart skip a beat, but he's solid, and the cast around him is hands down the most talented roster in the division. Dexter Mccluster, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Jonathan Baldwin, Jamal Charles, and Peyton Hillis is a skill group that can rival any in the league. The Chiefs also probably have the most defensive talent in the division with newly acquired Dontari Poe joing stars Tamba Hali (pass rusher) Derrick Johnson (middle linebacker) Brandon Flowers (cornerback) and Eric Berry (safety). The defense legitimately has four pro bowl level players, and if Poe can live up to his monstrous potential that number will soon be five. I think KC's roster is so far superior to any other team in the West, that Cassel's mediocrity can be overcome.
2. What is the Saints' season going to be like?
Probably a lot like the off-season. Which is to say, I have no idea. Sean Payton is gone for the year, GM Mickey Loomis is gone for half the year, Drew Brees is mad about his contract, defensive leader Jonathan Vilma is gone for the season. Robert Meachem also left via free agency as did all-pro Carl Nicks. I think the Saints have enough offense and enough leadership with Brees to still win a handful of games, but I don't expect them to compete for a championship like last year. I would think with the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons either improving or already a tough out, the Saints would be lucky to win the division.
3. Which team flying under the radar is going to surprise some people this year?
I have to pick between Washington, Carolina, and Tampa Bay because they all intrigue me. I'll go with Tampa. I think they have a really good offensive line with the addition of Carl Nicks. LeGarrette Blount is a good but not great running back that can carry the load. Vincent Jackson gives them a legitimate number 1 receiver to complement the promising Mike Williams and the pro bowl level tight end Kellen Winslow. They also hit big time on their first three picks in the draft: Mark Barron will start immediately at safety, Doug Martin comes in to complement Blount at the easiest position to transition to (running back) and Lavonte David (OLB) continues to add to the young talent in the Bucs Front 7. With the Saints down, the Falcons status quo, and the Panthers rising Tampa and Carolina could easily be battling for the division crown.
4. Who's going to underwhelm most?
Again it's a race: The Ravens, Jets, and Broncos. I'll go Ravens because I think people still expect them to be a title contending team while a lot of people are unsure about Manning's health, and have lost faith in the Jets. For the Ravens, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are just not elite players anymore. Reed is too injury prone and Lewis has lost a lot of range. They are still quality starters but they aren't the game changers they once were. Haloti Ngata is a monster, and Terrell Suggs was the other stud in his prime on this defense, but he's now out with an achilles tear. The offense has never been able to turn the corner. Joe Flacco has Matt Ryan disease- we saw how good he could be in his first year and then he never got much better. Anquan Boldin is quickly turning into Hines Ward (slow, tough, good blocker, but not a game breaker). Torrey Smith is good at running a straight line, but he needs a lot more polish. Stud guard Ben Grubbs also left via free agency. I like the way the Bengals are stockpiling talent, I think the Steelers offense could be lethal, and the Browns at least have life with Trent Richardson coming in. I could see Baltimore as a 8-9 win team when a lot of people probably still see them as 10-12 wins.
5. With two rings, where does Eli Manning rank among the league's top quarterbacks?
Eli was not a great player in his first Super Bowl run. His regular season QB rating that year was a 73.9, or 16 points lower than Alex Smith's rating this year. No doubt he turned it on in the playoffs, but four games does not an elite player make. Timmy Smith ran for 204 yards for the Redskins in Super Bowl XXII but he's not up there on the Mount Rushmore of running backs. The following year in the playoffs Eli was bounced by the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs posting a 40.7 rating with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. In 2009 the Giants didn't even make the playoffs though Eli's rating was very good at 93.1. Again no playoffs in 2010, and then the Giants narrowly got in this past year and just like 2007 happened to get hot. The Giants have two prolific Super Bowl runs and three first game exits during Eli's reign, not elite in my opinion. Here are the Quarterbacks I would want as of right now before Manning: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Stafford. I put Eli in the second group with Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Michael Vick.
6. Can the 49ers win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback?
Yes. They won 13 games last year, then beat a team with a far superior quarterback in Drew Brees, and were two muffed fumbles away from playing and probably winning the Super Bowl. Now Smith has another year in a good offensive system, a stable of running backs (Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James) and a ton of options at wide receiver (Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Michael Crabtree, 1st round pick AJ Jenkins, and star right end Vernon Davis. In addition everyone from the leagues best defense was resigned as were all the key components of the league's best special teams units. With four explosive weapons added to the offense, a full off-season to integrate the system, and the confidence from last year's run Smith could certainly win this team a Super Bowl.
7. Who's your favorite player going today? Ever?
Well, let's break this up a little bit. Of course a 49er has to be my favorite current player- and that is a split decision between Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis, love em' both, can't choose. My favorite non-Niner is without a doubt the people's champ Aaron Rodgers- cool, calm, has every tool in the kit, and dare I say handsome. All time favorite is again a split. In terms of 49ers it has to be a three way tie between Steve Young, Jerry Rice, and Bryant Young. All were such professionals, such warriors, such masters of their craft, and none of them bitched off the field. Outside the Niner organization my favorite players of all time are Deion Sanders, Barry Sanders, and Reggie White. Deion was simply electric, Barry was a human video game, and Reggie made me fall in love with football when I saw him throwing Patriot lineman into Drew Bledsoe during the Packers 1996 Super Bowl. Kevin Greene's insanity at outside linebacker also has a special place in my heart. Apologies to Ronnie Lott and Joe Montana, I just wasn't old enough to appreciate your greatness.
8. Who makes the bigger impact Year One, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III?
hmm...I would Say RG3 because I think he has a better team around him, but I think Griffin has a tough road playing against the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys. Luck will get 4 games against the Titans and Jaguars. I also think Luck is so damn polished that he will find a way to be pretty good right away and not get his head knocked off. Neither team is going to the playoffs, but I'll give the edge to Luck.
9. Which team improved itself the most this off-season?
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and three draft picks that could make an immediate impact.
2. St. Louis Rams- long term this will be a much improved team, they turned the #2 overall pick this year into the 14th pick this year, two second rounders this year, and first rounders in the 2013 and 2014 drafts...not bad.
10. How long will it be until the Browns can compete with their AFC North big brothers in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati?
If Brandon Weeden can be a good NFL player then they can compete not this year but next. They have the running back, a solid offensive line, and some good players on defense. They need talent on the perimeter offensively, and to continue to fill out the defense with talent. In all likelihood this is at least two more years of good drafting and free agent signings before this team can compete for a playoff spot.
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