The Mavericks and Heat haven’t even finished their semi-epic battle for the NBA championship yet, and already this NBA postseason has taught us all we need to know about succeeding in the playoffs and the state of the league in general.
Lesson 1: There Are No Great Teams
The reason I call this Mavs-Heat series semi-epic is because, while it is very competitive, neither team is playing great basketball. Miami often looks atrocious in their half-court offense; Dallas consistently plays lackluster for three quarters, then puts together 8-12 good minutes to finish the game. Miami is very good defensively, and you would think that having three All-Stars would ensure offensive success, but they’ve consistently lacked fluidity and efficiency on that end of the floor. Building the entire Dallas offensive gameplan around one player, Dirk Nowitzki must either score when he gets single coverage or pass to a solid but unspectacular supporting cast if he’s double-teamed.
The fact that Miami won each series on their way to the Finals in five games is deceiving. If Boston’s Rajon Rondo didn’t dislocate his elbow in the Second Round, that series easily could have gone to seven games. Or worse, the Heat may never have advanced. Even so, Miami played down-to-the-wire games against Philadelphia in the First Round, Boston in the Second, and Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals. Every game against Boston and Chicago came down to the 4th quarter, and the Heat simply survived the playoff grind better than their opponents.
Similarly, the Mavericks had a tough first round series against Portland and then cleanly swept the Lakers, though they had to make major comebacks in two of the games to win. Against their Western Conference Final foes, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavs’ largest margin of victory was 9 points, and Dallas won the final three games of that series by 6, 7, and 5 points, respectively, including an overtime contest.
Thus far in the NBA Finals, the Heat have scored 356 points, the Mavs 351.
Lesson 2: Defense Almost Wins Championships
The remaining Finals games notwithstanding, Miami has clearly been the best defensive team in these playoffs. Still, the Heat’s strategy of getting a lead through three quarters, then holding the ball and relying on their defense to finish games has been a problem. The Mavericks have twice erased double digit 4th quarter deficits specifically due to the Heat stagnating offensively when they have a late lead. They stop attacking, they run the shot clock down, and to top it off, take poor shots. Defense alone cannot completely close a game or a series.
Lesson 3: We Need Not Fear Domination of Super Teams
The Miami Heat seem to be the model for what many franchises want to do moving forward: compile three stars and a bunch of role players to make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Knicks hope to land Chris Paul or Dwight Howard to pair with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; the Lakers would love to form a Howard/Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol super-trio. But as we’ve seen all season, the Heat are good but not dominant. Specifically, putting three stars on one team is so costly that it won’t allow for a deep bench or great supporting cast. The Heat have no choice but to play sub-par players like Mike Miller, Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby, and Juwan Howard for significant stretches.
In terms of star power and star talent, the Heat easily trump the Mavs—three stars (Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh) to one (Dirk Nowitzki). But by committing enormous money to just one player, Nowitzki, the Mavericks can put together a versatile roster that runs much deeper than the Heat’s. Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and Jason Kidd would probably all be the 4th-best player on the Heat, though none are better than any of the Heat’s big three.
Conclusions
The era of the great team may not be over in the NBA, but the super team strategy certainly has its flaws. The playoffs have proven to us that defense is the single most important ingredient to postseason success; witness the Bulls making a long playoff run despite having virtually no offense and the Lakers getting annihilated because of their complete lack of defensive effort. The Grizzlies also ran through the Spurs and nearly beat the Thunder on the strength of wing defenders like Tony Allen and Shane Battier and the rough and tumble inside play of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Yet the reason the Heat and the Mavericks have made it to this point is because they combine very good defense with an ability to create shots and go on hot shooting stretches.
Going forward, the NBA seems to have two tracks to success, and the Finals participants represent each of those paths. There’s the Heat super squad and the endlessly deep Mavs, and judging by the air-tight margins in these games, both are championship-caliber formulas.
--from @AdamHocking
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