Don’t let the seeds fool you; Miami is the favorite and deservedly so. The Heat have gone 8-2 in this postseason and were impressive late in 4th quarters against the mighty Celtics. The Bulls are 8-3 in these playoffs, but they struggled mightily in every game against the eighth seeded Pacers and at times looked like the less talented team against the Hawks, who they eventually beat in 6 games.
Let’s not discount the Bulls’ chances however. Miami struggled all year against the defense and gritty style of Chicago, losing all three regular season matchups. This is easy to believe when you consider the Bulls as essentially a younger, more athletic version of the Celtics. Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau made Boston’s defense great and has done the same for Chi-town.
Thibodeau knows exactly what makes LeBron James and Dwyane Wade uncomfortable. You can bet the Bulls will be forcing that duo into jump shots and committing hard fouls if either dares drive the lane. If LeBron and Wade are forced to be long-range shooters all series, the Bulls can certainly advance. It’s also significant that Chicago has home court; that just makes things a little tougher for the boys from South Beach.
Matchup-wise the Bulls have some big-time advantages. Derrick Rose is in a different universe than any Heat point guard. Joakim Noah is a top-10 center in the league; Miami doesn’t possess a starting caliber center on their roster between Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Illgauskas, and Joel Anthony. Chris Bosh is a small forward that everyone just calls a power forward. Noah will be free to guard Bosh, help on James, and has the rare agility to be an excellent pick and roll defender.
Additionally, Ronnie Brewer and Luol Deng have the athleticism and length to at least slow LeBron down, though neither is near strong enough to physically intimidate him. A good athlete, the 6’5” Keith Bogans will be a decent guy to defend Wade, and perhaps Rose will spend some time checking him as well.
So, the Bulls play a tough style, have some matchup advantages, and run the type of defense that typically frustrates Miami. Can you sense the “but” coming?
Yes, Chicago has all these things in their favor, BUT they have really struggled to score in the playoffs.
Derrick Rose may have won the MVP award, BUT he’s probably the third best player in this series.
Rose has put up huge numbers this postseason but shoots ten more shots than any other Bull and only converts 40% of his field goals. The focal point of your offense has to be more efficient than 40% from the field.
The Bulls’ supposed second fiddle, Carlos Boozer, is battling an injury and posting an unacceptable 11 points (on 42% shooting) and 9 rebounds per game. Boozer is 6’8” standing on a phone book, and with a bad toe he will be an easy guard for Chris Bosh or even LeBron. For the Bulls to win this series Boozer has to put up at least 18 and 10, which doesn’t seem likely.
Luol Deng scores 17 points per game in the playoffs, but that has come in an enormous 43 minutes per game on just 43% shooting.
Though the Bulls’ defense is great, the Heat’s isn’t far behind. Plus, Wade, James, and Bosh are outscoring Rose, Boozer, and Deng 68-58 per game thus far in the playoffs.
Additionally, while Rose is miles better than any Heat point guard, that won’t really matter because the Heat have perhaps the best physical match to guard Rose in the entire league, Dwyane Wade. Compact, strong, athletic, and explosive, Wade can stay with Rose and make him work even harder than normal for his shots. Wade is also smart enough to make Rose shoot long jumpers instead of letting him into the lane against the Heat’s weak big men.
Wade can afford to wear himself out in this series guarding Rose because he can turn the offense over to his partners in crime: the All Star, Chris Bosh, and the best player in the league, LeBron James. I believe Noah will guard Bosh, and is long, quick and very athletic; he’ll give Bosh big problems. However, Bosh will pull Noah away from the hoop, which leaves only the smallish Boozer to protect the rim. That spells trouble with LeBron and Wade in attack mode.
Both defenses will play great, Bosh and Boozer/ Noah may play to a draw, and Wade and Rose will probably cancel each other out. It’s nice for Chicago to be able to counter Wade and Bosh with guys capable of playing right with them—Rose, Boozer, and Noah—but that still leaves the tiny problem of dealing with James. Luol Deng is a nice player but nothing more. He’s lanky, long, and a solid scorer. LeBron James is the best player to enter the league since Kobe Bryant, and might be the most physically talented player ever to lace em’ up.
I think James will run wild in this series, no longer shackled with the doubts that Boston planted in his mind, and having answered many of the “is he clutch” questions that have plagued him over his career. LeBron James with a clear conscious, a focused mind, and a matchup advantage is a terrifying thought for any opponent, and I think his dominance will give the Heat the deciding advantage in what should be a fun and competitive series.
Prediction: Heat in 6
--from Adam
No comments:
Post a Comment