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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

March 8, 2011

NBA Fantasy Draft Ranking

With the All Star Game not too far in our rearview mirrors, I wanted to take a look at the franchise players in the NBA, to rank the players that you would want to build a team around with the central goal of winning championships.

Age of course will be a factor in this discussion.  For example, Kobe Bryant will rank lower on the list not because he isn’t still great but because his window of greatness is smaller than, say, Chris Paul’s.  Moving down the list, preference will continually be given to younger guys, so if you’re ancient, you better be damn good.  When thinking about team building, you have to make decisions like: Is twelve years of Brook Lopez going to be better for my team than three more years of Tim Duncan?  Clearly it’s inexact, but it’s meant to engender conversation, debate, and it was really a fun list to make.

Cream of the Crop:
With a couple of nice pieces around just one of the top ten guys, you’re at least a playoff team.  Give them a really nice supporting cast and you bring home a ring.  These ten players are young enough to have at least 5-7 prime playing years left.

1. Kevin Durant


Plenty argue LeBron James should be in this spot.  That’s fine, but here’s how I defend Durant’s placement.  First, and this is rather minimal but still significant enough to be mentioned, Durant is four years younger than James.  The real reason I rank him higher though is because Durant is the easier player to build around.  With James, you absolutely must have the correct pieces in place.  James can’t spot up and shoot, he can’t post up, and he has to be the main facilitator on your team to be fully effective.  In essence, surrounded by a pile of crap in Cleveland, James reached his highest potential—averaging 30, 8, and 8 for an entire season—because he got to dominate the ball, make all the decisions, and shoot when he felt like it.  Now you see James in Miami where he too often gives the ball to Dwyane Wade and then just stands around like, “This is your possession. I’ll take over next time.”  James, despite having the repertoire of a Swiss army knife, is limited in his half court offensive arsenal and thus demands a certain type of roster around him.  He needs spot up shooters, no-talent rebounders (look at Anderson Varejao), and a true back to the basket post up man.  Because James can’t shoot a consistent jumper and can’t own his man on the block, his natural size and athleticism advantages only really help him in transition and dribble drive situations, which typically do not occur much against good teams in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Durant has no need to dominate the ball.  He is a scorer, plain and simple.  He is the focal point of your offensive game plan, not as a facilitator, but as the guy who makes buckets.  And the best part is, he doesn’t need the ball at all times; give it to him anywhere on the court and he’s effective.  He can catch and shoot, post up, curl off screens, use dribble isolation, and or get to the foul line whenever he feels like it as evidenced by taking the most free throw attempts in NBA history last year.  And oh yeah, he makes about 90% from the stripe, 50% from the field, and 40% from downtown.  Put anybody around Durant and you’ll still get 30 points and 7 rebounds from him in a high percentage fashion all while getting your opponent in foul trouble.  You also won’t incur all the hatred as a team, which James brings with him because of his antics and general jackassery (dancing before games, tweeting nasty things about the Cavs, hour-long ESPN specials, etc.)

Durant is the Duncan of this generation: coolly efficient, smart, focused solely on winning, and the perfect player to build around.  Durant’s game works against any team, whereas we’ve seen James shut down by a defensive-minded unit like Boston.

2. LeBron James


James is a bit like Wilt Chamberlain in that he is weighted down by insane expectations despite putting up ridiculous numbers, and I’m not sure James will ever escape that.  Even though James has been nothing short of incredible with Hall of Fame numbers and leading bad Cleveland teams to great seasons, it’s still possible that he’s falling short of the hype because by nature, hype has no limits.  People can dream up anything in the world of expectations, “Oh man, this James kid is so good.  He’s the next Jordan.  He’s gonna be better than Kobe.  He’s gonna win six rings.”  Fair or not, that’s what people thought when he came into the league, so the fact that James has zero titles after eight years in the NBA starts to weigh on him.  I think that explains his move to Miami.  He thought, “I better get a move on this championship thing or I won’t even be in the same breath as Kobe or MJ.  I might have to settle for Steve Nash territory.”  But what James didn’t understand was that going to Miami (A) wasn’t really a good fit for his skill set, (B) was only going to drive up expectations, yet at the same time diminish any accomplishments he did achieve because of his superstar teammates, and (C) make every road game tougher because everybody now hates the Heat.

James is also a bit like Scottie Pippen or Grant Hill in that he’s a great, all-around player that can pass, handle the ball, see the floor, defend, and jump out of the gym, but he doesn’t have that go-to-move on offense or the killer instinct to say, “I’m the guy on this team.  I take the last shot and I don’t give a damn if make it or miss it because I’m the man.”  The closest we ever saw James to being the take-charge guy he needs to be was in the 2005 playoffs against the Pistons when he scored 20 some straight points and willed his team to victory, but we haven’t seen it since.  James is a great player, but it’s the mental makeup that decides championships, and I’m not sure he has it.  James cares too much about what other people think.  In part, James was actually asking, “What should I do guys?  What do you want from me?”  Michael Jordan and Bryant didn’t give a damn what anyone thought, they didn’t want to be likeable, they didn’t want friends.  They wanted rings.

Remember that Pippen led the Bulls, sans-Jordan, to a 55-win season but couldn’t beat Patrick Ewing’s Knicks in the playoffs.  That’s what a great all-around player with no killer instinct and no true scorer’s mentality will get you: a great regular season, but no results come tournament time.  The regular season is a long haul where teams forget about defense and effort all together.  But in the playoffs it’s a new story, everything must be earned.  Every defense amps it up.  That’s why a player needs the midrange game and the post game, because drives to the bucket either won’t happen or will get you decapitated.

James is also a bit like Dr. J. as a guy so athletic that he seems a generation ahead of his time.  When we see that athleticism, awe-inspiring speed, and the hops, we think he should be the best player of all time.  But maybe in James’ case, he’s just a tremendous talent that isn’t quite the best player of all time.

One other consideration is, since James’s shooting and offensive tool kit is a little unrefined, you have to wonder how he will adapt when he’s 32 and can’t run like a greyhound or jump like kangaroo anymore.  Bryant and Jordan already had the midrange game, the full tool box before they started to decline athletically, but “The King” hasn’t developed it yet.

3. Dwight Howard

Howard reaches this high on the list because if you can surround him with quality pieces—or even semi-quality like Vince Carter, Hedo Turkoglu, and Rashard Lewis two years ago in the Finals—you will have a legitimate shot at a championship.  Howard does two things better than anyone in the league: rebound and block shots.  (Don’t give me the Kevin Love is a better rebounder argument.  Let’s see both those guys pursue the same ball and see what happens.)  He is still mostly a dunker offensively, but this season he’s made a concerted effort to implement the baby hook and a 12-foot bank shot he’s been working on.  Right now Howard averages 23 and 14 while shooting 58%.  That is an incredibly efficient player who still has 5-7 years left of his athletic prime.  Additionally, if he continues to improve his offensive game, around the ages of 27-30 he could have a run similar to what Shaquille O'Neal did at the same age—three rings, three NBA Finals MVPs, and one regular season MVP award.  When physical prime meets fully developed offensive game, there’s nobody who can stop it.

Howard, like everyone in the NBA these days, needs a true second star to support his bid for a title.  A bunch of decent-to-good players is not going to get it done.  Jameer Nelson is nothing more than 15 points and 6 assists.  He’s never going to carry you in a series, ditto for Turkoglu and Jason Richardson.  I just hope Howard’s prime isn’t wasted with the wrong teammates that take him to the East Semis only to fizzle out.  Because with Howard’s 7'6" wingspan, a ring should easily be within reach.

4. Derrick Rose


Maybe a surprise to some, but there are plenty of reasons to have him this high.  First, he had huge expectations coming in as a number one overall pick and has answered them all with grace and aplomb.  We’ve already seen the rough edges of his game, his jumper and free throw shooting, get smoothed over quite nicely.  He isn’t done getting better, but he has made huge strides.  His free throw percentage has gone from 79% in his rookie year to 83% this season, not insignificant when you think of how often he gets to the line and how many points that will account for during a season.  Even more impressive, his 3-point percentage has gone from 22% in his first year to 37% now.  That’s a huge jump that takes him from being a liability shooting from range to a weapon.  Combined with his other-worldly quickness, handle, and ability to get to the hoop, a three point shot makes him unguardable.  Sorry to nail you again James, but it’s your eighth year in the league and you’re only shooting 76% from the line.  For a guy that could get there whenever he wants?  Not a sign of hard work.  But again, I digress…until I bash him later. Rose is also just 22 years old.

He has said repeatedly he wants to be the MVP, the best player in the game, and his improvement over his first three years shows he isn’t just blowing hot air.  With two more years of steady improvement, he could put a lethal jumper to work with 26 points and 10 assists nightly.  And he’d still be only 24.  In other words, the physical prime meets fully developed game era, which we mentioned for Howard, could occur much earlier for Rose and last much longer.

5. Blake Griffin


Maybe you think I’m jumping the gun here, but I would have had him higher if not for his knee injury that caused him to miss all of last year.  Still, it was a bone break, not a ligament, tendon, or microfracture, which tend to give you much worse long-term concerns.  I can almost hear you say, “He’s just an athlete. He won’t age well.”  And you’re wrong.  You can’t analyze this guy just through Sportscenter highlight reels.  He’s more than just crazy dunks, although those are great fun.  
He can bring the ball up the court; he can pass, as his 3.5 assists per game, a terrific number for a power forward, can attest; he can shoot; and he even has a running floater.  He can use the glass, he has post moves, nimble feet, and he just turned 21.  He’s still figuring the NBA out while matching Howard’s best years stat for stat.  Griffin averages 23 and 13 as a rookie on a team that really doesn’t know how to use him.

Even though it’d be easy to think a guy this young and athletic would have to be raw, he’s not.  With just another offseason to get his bearings and work on his free throws, he can be an absolute nightmare.  Next year he will enter the season knowing for sure that he can own the league, and he will.  This is a guy that could, with health, average 28, 15, and 5.

6. Russell Westbrook


He’s ahead of Paul, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams for a few reasons.  He’s younger and more athletic than any of them (and may be more athletic than anyone not named James or Griffin).  
He’s a much better shooter and overall scorer than Rondo.  He’s stronger than Paul.  And because he is so insanely athletic, people tend to overlook other aspects of his game, like that he is a tremendous passer, great ball handler, and has wonderful vision.  His numbers—23 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds (at 6’3”, awesome)—are worthy of MVP consideration.  He is every bit as important to Oklahoma City’s success as Durant.

What also stands out is how much better he got in the playoffs last year against the world champion Lakers.  Plenty of guys get worse in the postseason, especially in such a big spot against a great team, but Russell, when Durant struggled mightily, almost single-handedly knocked off the champs.  He had a matchup advantage and exploited it so well that the Thunder were a last second tip away from potentially winning the series.  In fact, his point per game average went up nearly 5 points from the regular season to the playoffs.

Also impressive is that his numbers have climbed each year he’s been in the league, and he’s averaging 6 more points this year than last.  He’s an 85% free throw shooter and can get to the line whenever he wants.  With him and Durant on the same team, I don’t know how you guard them.  They could just switch off possessions if they wanted to, but both guys are unselfish and play to win.

7. Deron Williams


The run on point guards continues with one of my favorite players.  He and Paul seem linked forever; each fan has his or her own personal preference.  I’d gladly have either, but here’s why I’d take Williams: (A) He’s stronger; that will serve him well as he ages.  (B) He’s a really good pure shooter, can shoot the three and off the dribble.  He’s one of those players you love because you always wish he shot the ball more, but he loves to pass.  (C) His numbers have gone up this year with an increased burden, while this season Paul’s have dipped to near career lows.  (D) Paul tends to dribble endlessly until he finds the open man—which is fine, he looks like a new school Bob Cousy out there—but I think Williams has more accuracy and zip on his passes and maybe the best court vision of any point guard.  Williams is a pretty soft spoken guy—don’t buy the crap about him forcing Jerry Sloan out—but he is a leader.  I think he’s fully capable of being the best player on a championship team, but he needs more help.

8. Chris Paul

He could easily rise on this list; he just isn’t having his best statistical year.  Still, he’s clearly the driving force for an unlikely playoff contender.  He's the best ball handler in the league, and there was even a time a couple of years back when I might have taken him over James.  He can get to the basket whenever he wants, and you aren’t going to take the ball from him.  Another really underrated thing about Paul is that he’s a career 86% free throw shooter and 37% three point marksman, shooting an incredible 44% from deep this year.  He’s also a great defender and a true competitor, even willing to cheap shot you in the balls.

I just wonder if he will have a bit of the Allen Iverson conundrum in that he’s a fantastic player but so small that he takes a beating and eventually can’t go to the hoop or doesn’t want to.  Still, Paul will be great for at least six more years, and like all the other guys in my top-10, could be the best player on a title winning team.

9. Rajon Rondo


Rondo could climb on this list if he could just do one thing: shoot.  That is the only knock on a man truly in the mold of Jason Kidd in that he can dominate the game while scoring just 6 points.  He keeps everyone on the star-laden Celtics warm, happy, and in the flow.  Each member of the Boston Three Party’s career has probably been prolonged by the mere presence of Rondo.  Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett can all just be catch-and-shoot or pick-and-pop options as Rondo weaves through defenses.

Another underrated element Rondo brings is his competitiveness/annoying peskiness.  Case in point: Rondo matches up against LeBron a few weeks ago, giving up 9 inches and 80 pounds, and makes James pass the ball away.  In the same sequence he talks trash to James, gets escorted away from Miami’s huddle, and completely shifts the momentum of the game.  Guys that will do anything to piss off the other team and galvanize their own are hugely important.

Rondo is as good a ball handler as Paul, as good a passer as anyone, has really good vision, and rebounds incredibly well for his size.  It’s just that he can’t shoot a midrange shot, a three, or even a free throw to save his life.  A big reason the Lakers have a legitimate shot to beat the Celtics is because Bryant can guard Rondo playing off him by 5 feet and just dare him to shoot.  Until Rondo finds a jump shot, it will always be possible to stop him.

10. Carmelo Anthony


I wanted to go with either Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge here, but those would have been “I’m trying to be different” picks.  Anthony is still a great player with plenty of prime left; he’s only 26, though it seems like he’s a ten year vet.  Offensively, he’s close to Durant and Bryant in the, “There’s nothing this guy can’t do” category.  He has the body of a power forward at 6’8”, 230, and has the quickness and burst of a two guard.  He’s got a pure shooting stroke, is a career 80% foul shooter, and has a devastating back to the basket game when he wants to use it.

Yet “wants to” is always the operative phrase when talking about Anthony.  If he wants to defend and wants to take every possession personally, then he can be as good as anyone on this list.  At times he has been.  There are plenty of guys on this list that haven’t been to a conference finals and pushed a team like the Lakers to six grueling games like Anthony did two years ago.  He averaged 29 points for an entire year and is plenty capable of doing that again, which you also couldn’t say for some guys ahead of him on this list.  It’s just that he is at times listless and looks bored and disengaged.  He settles for long jumpers against smaller defenders and doesn’t always use his best assets.  Still, I believe he should settle in, get back to scoring 27 a game with 8 rebounds now that he’s out of trade limbo, and be a dominant force once again.

Next Floor Down: These are guys that are either still truly great—but getting older and thus are harder to build around—or are young guys that, while very talented, have some limitations. Or we simply need to see more from them.

11. Dwyane Wade: I love Wade, and when healthy, he’s just as good as Bryant or James.  It’s just that he has taken a pounding over his career, and at 28, he can probably only play at a really high level for four or five more years.


12. Kevin Love: A terrific rebounder, unreal passer, and strong as a mule, Love is as athletic now as he will be when he’s 36 (which is to say, not very athletic at all) so he should maintain his game as he ages.  Love also shoots the three and will be a 20 and 15 guy for years to come.


13. LaMarcus Aldridge: Aldridge can do anything on the floor: shoot up to 20 feet, has moves galore in the post, rebounds, is long, and is leading a totally undermanned Blazers team to a very good season.  He’s only 25.


14. Kobe Bryant: This is the lowest Bryant has probably been on any list (especially any list of mine) for a while.  He’s this high because if you get him now, you’re a title contender for probably 2-3 more years but no more.  For those few years, you have as good a shot as anyone.


15. Amare Stoudemire: The talk that he’s carrying his team and deserves MVP consideration is a bit hyperbolic, now practically moot with Anthony in town.  The Knicks are a .500 team that doesn’t play defense and has enough talent to be seeded higher in the East.  Also, Stoudemire has knees that would scare any GM.  But when healthy, he’s a dynamite scorer, and if he’s your second best player, you should be competing for championships.  Hear that Melo?


16. Steph Curry: It worries me that he has the body of a 1980s cocaine binging super model, but that’s the only thing that gives me pause.  He is a flat out shooter—94% from the line this year and 41% from three—that can pass, he’s quick, and has a great handle.  At 22 years old he averages 19 points and 6 assists per game.


17. John Wall: I love his speed, his handle, his ability to finish at the rim, and the way he Dougie’s.  
15 points and 9 assists are really nice numbers for a rookie.  He should ascend on this list, but his team has to get better than 1-25 on the road for that to happen.

18. Monta Ellis: He’s just 25 years old, and he scores 25 a game with 5 assists and shoots nice percentages from the floor, the foul line, and from three.  It’s just hard to tell what he is exactly on the fast paced Warriors.  Are his numbers inflated?  And is he too small at 6’3” to sustain himself as a two guard in this league?


19. Brook Lopez: His rebounding is pathetic this season, but in years past it’s been around 9 per game.  Plus he scores 19 per and is the rare 7-footer with a big body and post moves.  He provides a matchup problem for most teams.


20. Chris Bosh: Before the year, he probably would have been in my top-15, but seeing him actually play has been disappointing.  The numbers are fine, 18 and 8, but it’s the way he gets them that is deflating.  It’s all jumpers.  Can you really build around a 6’11” string bean that can’t bang in the post?  He has great skill, but he’s not the franchise cornerstone-type like I once thought.


21. Pau Gasol: If we’re talking best players in the game today, Gasol is much higher, but at age 30 he’s not a franchise starter.  He probably has four years left of really high level play.  He's answered critics about his toughness in the past two years and is the most skilled offensive post player in the league.  Still, he’s disinterested at times and should demand the ball more.  Bosh is ahead of Gasol due only to youth.

22. Rudy Gay: He’s only 24, a dynamic athlete, and scores 20 per game for a team that would be in the playoffs if they started today.  A surprisingly good shooter too—40% from three this year and 81% from the line—he can do everything well; I’m just not sure he’s great at any one thing.


23. Andrew Bogut: A bit like Lopez, he’s one of the league’s rare, talented 7-footers.  He rebounds and defends better than Lopez but is 5 years older and doesn’t score enough given his abilities.  Also, the Bucks are having a horrible year when they were expected to be a top-5 team out East, so he drops a couple spots.


24. Tyreke Evans: Again, a guy that could rise dramatically on this list in a year or two, but we need to see more.  At best he’s a big physical two guard that can score, dish, and handle.  At worst he’s a chucker
with a bad attitude.

25. Andrea Bargnani: This 7-footer averages just 5.5 boards a game.  His offensive numbers, much like Bosh’s were, are inflated as the best player on a bad Raptors team.  Still, a 7-foot, 25 year old with deep three point range is something any team would covet.


And the Rest:
These are guys that are either getting really long in the tooth, have serious limitations in some part of their game, or are just too unproven. These players can be your third best player on a title team, or in the case of the older guys on the list, could be your best player but for only another year or so.

26. Eric Gordon

27. Joakim Noah

28. Danny Granger

29. Carlos Boozer

30. Joe Johnson

31. Al Horford

32. Kevin Martin

33. Brandon Jennings

34. Andrew Bynum

35. Brandon Roy

36. Zach Randolph

37. Tony Parker

38. Roy Hibbert

39. Devin Harris

40. Tim Duncan

41. Dirk Nowitzki

42. Demarcus Cousins

43. Josh Smith

44. Al Jefferson

45. Steve Nash

46. Luol Deng

47. Paul Pierce
48. Nene Hilario
49. Danilo Gallinari
50. Serge Ibaka

--from Adam

(images from wikipedia.org)

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