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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

March 10, 2011

Making Sense of the Madness: Contenders, Teasers, and Sleepers

Getting a grasp on the enormous landscape of college basketball can be an overwhelming prospect.  That’s why I’m here my people, to help you out.  Allow me to lend you a hand and add some clarity to the college hoops chaos.  I’m going to take a look at the top ten ranked teams according to the AP poll and tell you which teams are legitimate contenders to win a championship and which teams are just nice stories having good seasons.  I’ll also provide a few sleeper picks outside of the top-10.  The numbers next to each team indicate their AP ranking and not any sort of order I’m placing them in.  Now let’s get to it!

What I’m Looking For in a True Championship Contender:
  1. Pro Talent: You need guys that can carry a team for a game or two if the rest of the team is off.
  2. Multiple Scorers: Related to the last point, you need multiple guys that can fill it up if other players are having a bad night.
  3. Post and Perimeter Presences: A team of guards or bigs alone won't get it done.
  4. Experience: Perhaps a slightly overrated trait, but there’s a reason Michigan State and Duke make the Final Four all the time even without always having elite talent.
  5. Coaching: It’s not easy to win six straight games that get increasingly more difficult as the spotlight intensifies.  A master tactician and brilliant motivator like Coach K cannot be underestimated.
  6. Depth: Having multiple options off the bench keeps everyone fresh and gives the coach options if his starters aren’t performing, which is almost a certainty at some point during the tourney.
You also need luck, but that’s not something I can quantify or predict.  Keep in mind that these aren’t absolute hard and fast criteria, just things I look for.  If you have loads of talent with a great coach but limited experience, it doesn’t mean you can’t contend.

The Contenders

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes: Jared Sullinger covers the pro talent and post presence bases; he may be the most dominant player in college hoops, even at only 6’9”.  He’s almost a guaranteed two points when he gets the ball down low, he can dominate the boards, and defends the paint.  William Buford, David Lighty (who seems to have been in college for a decade), and John Diebler cover the perimeter shooting and the need for multiple scorers.  Any of these three guys can go for 20 points.  Diebler shoots an incredible 50% from the three point line.  The Buckeyes also boast tremendous experience starting three seniors.  Dallas Lauderdale doesn’t score much down low, but he’s a big body that rebounds, blocks shots, and complements Sullinger well.  Thad Matta is an excellent coach who has loads of tourney experience.  This team is probably my overall favorite to win it all.

#2 Kansas Jayhawks: The Morris Twins (Marcus and Markieff) make Kansas a top threat to win the whole enchilada.  Marcus is 6'9” and Markieff is 6’10”, giving the Jayhawks two talented, big bodies that will solidify the post advantage most nights.  Marcus is the bigger talent, able to step away from the post and play effectively while facing the basket.  Senior guard Tyrell Reid and freshman guard Josh Selby combine talent and experience to form a very good backcourt.  Ten players on the Jayhawks play significant minutes, giving them tremendous depth.  Bill Self is an excellent coach who has won a title and made numerous other deep tournament runs.  No team at any point will have a significant talent edge over KU.  The only thing that worries me is that they don’t have the singular star who I feel comfortable taking the clutch shots.

#4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Most pundits are going the other way on the Fighting Irish, thinking they've had a nice regular season but won’t sustain a long tournament run.  Yes, they rely a lot on the three-ball, but they also make a ton of them.  Ben Hansbrough is a stellar guard who can take over a game with his shooting.  He averages 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, some of the best numbers put up by any guard in the country.  6’8” forward Tim Abromaitis is a solid rebounder and can score from the perimeter or inside that puts up 15 points and 6 boards per game on the season.  Tyrone Nash is a tough player inside, and at 6’8” crashes the boards well while still providing some scoring production.  Guard Scott Martin is a solid player, who at 6’8” is versatile and presents matchup problems.  Mike Brey is a good coach who has steadily improved the Notre Dame program without headliner recruits.  This team shares the ball, defends, and simply plays the right way.  What I like most about the Irish is that Hansbrough, Abromaitis, Nash, and Martintheir four best playersare all seniors.

#5 Duke Blue Devils: I must be anti-Duke because I was trying to configure reasons why they aren’t a contender.  In most other years, I don’t think they would be, but there is no great team in this year’s crop.  Mike Krzyzewski usually wins unless his opponent has significantly more talent than his own squad.  Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith carry a heavy burden, but it’s one they can manage.  Rumblings about freshman phenom Kyrie Irving returning for the dance makes Duke an even stronger contender.  The Plumlee brothers are solid inside, but not much more than that.  If Duke is going to do it again this year, it will be on the strength of defense, the Singler-Smith combo, and the incomparable Coach K.

#6 North Carolina Tar Heels: UNC point guard Kendall Marshall is not going to snatch the press clippings from the NBA-ready frontcourt of Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson, but he is the reason the Tar Heels turned their season around.  UNC had an awful beginning to their year, mostly because they couldn’t find a point man to set up their fantastic forwards.  They’ve now found that man in the freshman Marshall.  This comparison will get me skewered, so really listen to what I’m saying before you go nuts.  Marshall reminds me of Deron Williams when he played at Illinois.  He’s not the all-around star, scorer, or player that Williams was, but he has the same craftiness with the ball in his hands.  Most of the time it’s a cliché when we say, “This guy really sets up his teammates well.  He puts them in a position to make plays.”  With Marshall it’s the absolute truth.  His vision borders on telepathy, like he knows where everyone will be a split second before they get there.  His passes are always right on the mark, not just hitting people in the hands, but hitting them precisely where they need it to make their next move, be it a dunk, jump shot, dribble drive, or another pass.  The guys Marshall is setting up don’t hurt the championship equation either.  Freshman forward Harrison Barnes was literally billed as the next Kobe Bryant; he was a preseason First Team All-American.  Even though he hasn't quite lived up to that potential, there won’t be a player he faces that is more talented than he is.  Barnes can do everything on the court from defending, handling the ball, shooting from range, to crashing the boards.  Zeller and Henson combine for 26 points, 17 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game.  They also change the complexion of the game with their length and athleticism.  Barnes, Zeller, and Henson will all be first round picks in the next year or two.  The depth behind the aforementioned four players isn’t great, but it’s decent.  And ol’ dad-gum Roy Williams should have this bunch ready to rumble as he usually does come tourney time.

#10 Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns are probably fool's gold; I originally placed them as a “teaser.”  When it came down to it though, this is a team with a ton of talent, which can defend as well as any group in the nation.  Bobby Knight called Texas forward Jordan Hamilton the best offensive player in the country.  That’s good enough to make this team a contender considering Coach Knight knows more about hoops than everyone I’ve ever met combined.  Hamilton can do everything on the floor as he averages 19 points and 8 boards a game.  Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, and Gary Johnson compose one of the most talented frontcourts in the nation, though it isn’t an overly tall group.  They make up for that relative lack of size with tremendous athleticism and great help defensively.  Point guard Dogus Balbay doesn’t score the ball much, but he has great floor vision and keeps the talented Texas forwards well-fed.  Corey Joseph is a very talented freshman guard who is capable of scoring in bunches.   I don’t love Rick Barnes as a coach, but he’s experienced and has a very talented team.  If everything breaks right, the Longhorns could be left dancing at the end.

The Teasers

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers: Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown.  Have you heard of any of these guys?  Probably not.  And although it’s a simplistic argument, I don’t think teams win titles without at least a couple of players somebody has heard of before.  Gibbs is the best scorer on the team, and Wanamaker is solid, but neither is capable of being the best player on a championship squad.  Yes, Pitt has survived and thrived as the best team in the Big East, but they're built to play solely in that conference.  They’re tough, play great defense, and execute smart basketball, but they don’t have the scoring arsenal or talent to win six tournament games.

#7 San Diego State Aztecs: Read the below entry on BYU, and then consider that San Diego State lost to the Cougars twice by sizeable margins.  The Aztecs are an athletic team, and Kawhi Leonard is a star, but they haven’t beaten a single elite team this year.  Their ranking is inflated because they’ve beaten a lot of so-so teams.  If this team loses in its first or second game, I won't be surprised.

#8 BYU Cougars: What do you know about this team other than that they have Jimmer Fredette?  Not much, right?  That’s because there isn’t a ton else to know.  The Cougars' third best player Brandon Davies got suspended from the team for breaking the honor code (meaning that he had sex with his girlfriend, more power to ya Brandon!).  Davies was their best rebounder and biggest presence inside.  The Collinsworth brothers (Chris and Kyle) are solid players but nothing more.  Charles Abou and Noah Hartsock will be depended on to play somewhat out of position, rebound, and defend the rim more than they’re used to.  Jason Emery is a nice complementary guard to Fredette, but he’s not a star.  Jimmer’s burden is going to be enormous in the tournament, and even he is not good enough to cut down the nets with this average supporting cast.

#9 Purdue Boilermakers: I love Coach Matt Painter.  I love guard E’Twaun Moore.  I love forward/center JaJuan Johnson.  The problem is, that’s all I love.  They have two very good but not great players, a good system, and a good coach.  Without injured forward Robbie Hummel they just don’t have enough scoring punch or enough margin for error.  Johnson and Moore are talented enough to win a few games, but they can’t carry this team all the way.  Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight seems like the limit for this squad.

The Sleepers

#13 Wisconsin Badgers: They play defense as well as anyone, and Bo Ryan is the best coach in college hoops not hailing from Duke.  Jordan Taylor and John Leuer give the Badgers an uncharacteristic scoring duo and could carry this squad to new heights.

#16 Arizona Wildcats: Two Words: Derrick Williams.  He does it all, maybe the best all-around player in college hoops.

#17 St. John's Red Storm: An experienced team where all five starters are seniors, a player’s coach in Steve Lavin, and a true star in guard Dwight Hardy, this team has a lot of the elements I look for when prognosticating a tourney run.  They beat Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, UConn, Pitt, and Villanova this year.  In other words, they can beat anyone on a given day.

#19 Kanas State Wildcats: Guard Jacob Pullen is as good as any player in the country and can score 30 on any night.  They’ve beaten Kansas and Texas and won eight of their last nine games.  They're hot, and their coach scares everyone.  That’s gotta count for something.

#21 Connecticut Huskies: Kemba Walker might be the most dangerous scorer in the nation besides Fredette, and freshman point guard Shabazz Napier is very talented at distributing and handling the ball.  Great backcourts can equal a long run in March.

Unranked Homer Pick, UCLA Bruins: They are just outside of the top-25, and looking past a bad, 4-game losing streak at the start of the year, the Bruins have gone 22-5.  They’ve got talented guards and one of the best frontcourts in the country.  Forwards Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson can flatout score and are long and incredibly athletic.  Freshman Josh Smith is a rare true center in college hoops.  He’s 6’10” and 300 pounds with soft hands, good post moves, and a refined post game.  He’s gotten better every game this year and presents a matchup problem for virtually every team the Bruins face.  Plus, coach Ben Howland has made three Final Fours, so he seems to know what he’s doing as well.

--from Adam

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