Let's Play Two: The 2011 MLB Season Preview

With Opening Day fast approaching, I’d like to take a look at our most neglected of the major sports here at Hill 364, professional baseball.  The baseball offseason is a dynamic place where players come and go like hotcakes flying off the hot stove.

But even with such rampant player movement grabbing headlines, the balance of power shifts only so much.  In the salary cap-free world of baseball, the good teams will seemingly always be good, and the bad teams will seemingly always be bad—just look at Pittsburgh’s infamous streak of eighteen straight losing seasons—all depending on who has the money.  The teams that can afford to pay free agents’ exorbitant salaries will forever have a leg up on their small market competitors.  The large market teams can bring in the players they want and essentially buy themselves a championship, or at least a very competitive team.  On the other end of the spectrum, the low payroll teams have to acquire talent—both through the draft and by trading away their best players for prospects—and develop it over time to compete in the major leagues.  There are no quick payoffs, and the glory years can be short-lived as well.  Often as soon as these teams’ core players become good enough to sustain a successful ball club, they have to be traded away or let walk as free agents because they get too expensive.

We’ve seen all of these examples this offseason—the rich get richer, small market teams build themselves up, and small market teams tear themselves down.

After putting together perhaps the best offseason of any team, the Boston Red Sox are the preseason favorite to take the always hotly contested AL East crown.  It would be Boston’s first division title since 2007 after falling behind the Tampa Bay Rays and the hated New York Yankees over the past three seasons.  The marquee offseason move in all of baseball was Boston’s trade for Adrian Gonzalez, a power-hitting first baseman and an example of a player with too excessive a salary for his low payrolled former team, the San Diego Padres.  Gonzalez consistently hits for a .300 average, notches 30 homers, drives in 100 runs, and plays Gold Glove defense.  He could be an All Star for any team in baseball.  Protected by the lineup in Boston, he could be the MVP.

That move alone could have made Boston the offseason winner, but they followed that by signing former Tampa Bay All Star Carl Crawford the week after acquiring Gonzalez.  Crawford has speed to burn and is a perfect leadoff man if Jacoby Ellsbury falters at all.  Also a Gold Glover, Crawford is a .300 hitter that can steal 60 bases and hit 15-20 home runs at the top of the lineup.  He will be a tremendous table setter alongside former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, and between Crawford and Ellsbury, fly balls might never touch outfield grass.  The Red Sox also bolstered their bullpen by bringing in fireballer Bobby Jenks from the White Sox and another former Ray, Dan Wheeler.

The departures of Crawford and Wheeler lead me to the next offseason development: breaking up the reigning AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays.  Though their recent success has greatly turned around the culture of Tampa baseball, it did nothing to improve the Rays’ revenue stream.  For a team that draws less than 20,000 fans to its stadium most nights, their $72 million payroll was unsustainable.  Thus, 2011 marks Tampa’s offseason on the chopping block.  They lost two of their most important hitters in Crawford and Carlos Pena; another nice lefty in Brad Hawpe; lost good defense up the middle in Jason Batrlett; an above average starter in Matt Garza; and the majority of one of 2010’s best bullpens in Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate, and Lance Cormier.  With so much talent cast off, reaching .500 will be a stiff challenge for a team that was in the World Series just three years ago.

Switching from the AL East to the NL East, I’m struck by how the two divisions parallel each other.  The Phillies, by luring Cliff Lee into their rotation and away from his suitors in the Bronx, have in effect become the Yankees of the National League.  “How do we get back to the World Series after going to two straight and then only making the NLCS last year?  Why, we spend more money of course.  Let’s just bring in the biggest name on the free agent market and hope for the best.”  In doing so, the Phillies created one of the deepest, most formidable rotations of all time with Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.  Sure that’s a great assemblage of arms, but to me it stinks of “we’re buying our ring” sentiment.

To continue the comparison, the Braves are kind of like the Red Sox in that they’re the other high payroll team in the division that doesn’t draw quite the same acrimony the Phillies and Yankees do.

Next come two sets of geographically linked teams.  The Marlins and Rays reflect each other quite strikingly in that both are Florida-based clubs—a market unsympathetic to seemingly most of its professional sports teams—that put together a run every once in a while, yet as soon as they taste success have to dismantle everything. 

The Nationals and Orioles also share similarites.  Both are low payroll teams who look up at their deep-pocketed brethren and wonder if they will ever get their shot.  Yet both squads have some building blocks for the future.  Washington’s Stephen Strasburg is electric; hopefully he comes back from Tommy John surgery ready to strike out the world.  The Orioles actually had a very promising offseason keeping Buck Showalter at the helm and bringing in Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, JJ Hardy, Derrek Lee, and Kevin Gregg.  If young talent like Matt Wieters can blossom around those veteran acquisitions, the Orioles could take third place behind Boston and New York.

To complete the Eastern juxtaposition, the Blue Jays are the Mets.  Sorry Toronto.  It’s not unfounded though.  The Blue Jays have done their fair share of overpaying the wrong players in a bid to spend with the Yanks and Sox.  I’m looking especially at the BJ Ryan blunder and Vernon Wells massively underperforming relative to his gargantuan contract, a salary Toronto dumped on Anaheim this offseason.  Things are looking up Toronto!  The Mets perennially are just a bad mix of overpaid, under-talented egos that people think should be good just because they play in New York.

The final offseason situation I wanted to look at is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.  If the Red Sox had the best offseason, the Brewers came in a close second by bringing in former Royal star Zach Greinke and former Blue Jay hurler Shawn Marcum.  I’d consider the Brewers as one of the small market teams that’s been developing its homegrown talent and is ready to do something with it.  They’re finally in the position to start building up with some outside talent, to bring in some guys to support their former farmhands Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  Taking advantage of Greinke’s impending free agency, Milwaukee took him and the final year of his contract off the small market Royals’ hands.  Kansas City just wanted to get something for the former Cy Young winner, a guy they would have no way to pay when he becomes a free agent next winter.  Milwaukee gets a bona fide ace—an exceedingly rare entity—to pair with another terrific, homegrown incumbent at the top of its rotation in Yovanni Gallardo.  Add to that the freshly acquired Marcum and the big free agent signing from last year Randy Wolf, and the Brewers have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball.

After breaking down what went down this offseason, Adam, what are you looking forward to actually seeing this season?

--Eric

Honestly Eric, what I can’t wait to see is something that you probably detest.  I cannot wait to see just how good the Phillies can be with their Four Horsemen rotation.  I can’t wait to see how good Boston’s lineup of Crawford, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, et al. can be.  I don’t disagree one bit that these teams are buying their way to elite status, and I don’t really like that baseball works this way, but I also can’t turn away from seeing just how good all that talent can be on one roster.  The Phillies should be historically dominant with their pitching and should feature a damn good offense to boot, as long as Chase Utley can get healthy.  The Red Sox can do everything offensively: run, hit for average, hit for power, steal, etc.  If Boston and Philly met in the World Series, it would be an epic standoff between an unreal pitching staff and one of the most complete offenses assembled in recent memory.  The Phillies’ and Red Sox’s rosters put the Yankees’ to shame.  That’s how talented these two teams are.

Another thing I’m excited to see is the Nationals’ number one overall pick Bryce Harper.  He probably won’t be in the majors right away, but he is so highly regarded as a prospect that he may get there at some point this year.  I remember reading a Sports Illustrated article about him two years ago that said he is baseball’s LeBron James, only more highly regarded.  The Nationals landed two once in a lifetime prospects in back-to-back years with Strasburg and Harper.  I always love getting to know new stars—the future of the sports I love so much—and Harper has me chomping at the bit.

Finally, I’m excited as a Brewers fan to watch what should be the best Brew Crew of my lifetime.  “Should be,” is of course the operative phrase.  Greinke and Gallardo can be two of the ten best pitchers in all of baseball if they play to their potential.  Marcum posted a 3.54 ERA in the potent AL East.  What does that equate to in the NL Central?  A 2.80?  Maybe.  Randy Wolf was brought in last year to be the Brewers’ second starter, which was asking a bit much, but he wasn’t bad in the role.  Now Wolf represents one of the best fourth starters in all of baseball.  I expect the fifth spot in the rotation to experience some shuffling, but with this top four, that shouldn’t be a major problem.

Add to the Brewers’ new and improved pitching staff a young and potent offense, and Milwaukee should be favored to win their division.  Rickie Weeks is a rising star.  He was the second overall pick in the 2003 draft, but never lived up to his billing until last year.  Weeks is capable of being the best second baseman in the league, at least offensively.  Then of course, the Brewers boast the lethal 1-2 punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, a duo as productive as any pair of 3-4 hitters in the league.  Round out the lineup with former All Star Corey Hart and rising force Casey McGehee, and the Brewers have the ingredients for a potent offensive attack.

--Adam

Remember when I said the balance of power shifts slowly?  The Brewers certainly put themselves in a position to be better this offseason, but I’m not ready to call them division favorites.  I don’t see them making the jump from third place to division winner in just one season.  Yes, the Reds increased their win total from 78 in 2009 to 91 last year, but their record had improved each season since 2007.  Conversely, the Brewers won 90 games in ’08, 80 in ’09, and 77 in 2010.

Every team in the Central has questions, but some clubs have more issues than others.

The Brewers—and this is my biggest worry—are still the Brewers, a team that consistently plays with inconsistency.  They’ll score 10 runs one day and then lose 2-1 the next; they don’t rattle off the 5- and 10-game win streaks that lead to division titles.  Part of their inconsistency comes from exactly what makes them so dangerous offensively.  Milwaukee’s lineup is stacked with guys that swing for the fences every plate appearance, an over-aggressiveness that leads to too many strikeouts.  There are plenty of situations where a simple base knock would do more for your team than trying to jack a long ball.

Brewer GM Doug Melvin made the moves to put together a run this year.  He had to; Fielder is likely to depart after this season as a free agent.  That doesn’t mean his moves are guaranteed winners though.  Following a Cy Young-winning campaign, expectations were high for Greinke in 2010, but his social anxiety got the better of him.  Greinke went 10-14 and had a 4.17 ERA, which is not terrible, but was a full two runs higher than the year previous.  How much pressure could really be on Greinke in Kansas City?  Now in Milwaukee people expect him to dominate?  That doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

Elsewhere in the division we have the Reds attempting to repeat as champions, but they really did nothing this offseason to continue improving their team.  They did lock up Triple Crown threat Joey Votto, former World Series champion Bronson Arroyo, and young stalwarts Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto to long term contracts.  They didn’t bring in anyone else of note, but they didn’t really lose anyone either.  The only major loss was hard-throwing lefty penman Arthur Rhodes, who Cincinnati expects to fully replace with the 100 MPH man himself, Aroldis Chapman.

The only question for the Reds is if they have enough magic left over from last year’s roster—and the mental toughness—to go out and grab another NL Central crown in a division where practically every team improved itself this offseason.

The only team that didn’t improve itself, and maybe regressed even, was the St. Louis Cardinals.  No one thing the Cards did this offseason grabbed more headlines than not signing Albert Pujols to a long-term contract.  That sets up a significant distraction for the team moving forward.  In addition to the Pujols hoopla, St. Louis lost one of their best pitchers, Adam Wainwright, for the season to Tommy John surgery.  The Cardinals will sorely miss Wainwright, who won 39 games for them the past two seasons.  A third hole in the Cards’ sinking ship is that their top offseason acquisition, Lance Berkman, a.k.a. “Fat Elvis,” is a 35-year-old with bad knees that they expect to play every day in the outfield, where he hasn’t played since 2007.  Yeah, maybe that’ll work until they can find someone else at the trade deadline.  Doubtful.

The Chicago Cubs had a mostly favorable offseason but still don’t have the talent to make a playoff run.  Matt Garza will help the pitching staff, but he’s not an ace, which is the role Chicago’s penciled him in for.  Hopefully Carlos Zambrano can build on the success he had at the end of last season and not revert to where he was at the beginning.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue on their perpetual rebuilding track.  So do the Astros, but at least they haven’t been at it since the early 90’s, just since their ’05 World Series run pretty much.

My NL Central Prediction:

1. Reds (88-74)

2. Brewers (84-78)

3. Cubs (81-81)

4. Cardinals (79-83)

5. Astros (74-88)

6. Pirates (63-99)

What are your predictions for the season?  Who makes the playoffs?  Who wins the World Series?

--Eric

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers

The Reds made a nice run last year, but probably overachieved.  The Cardinals’ offense increasingly revolves around Pujols, who is great, but needs more help.  Also, the loss of Wainright is a killer.  The Cubs are in transition right now, trying to figure out exactly which pieces to move forward with.  They’ll be competitive but not playoff bound.  The Astros and Pirates suck, sorry, that’s all I have to say about them.  The Brewers signed two excellent pitchers, added some arms to their bullpen, and kept a talented, though inconsistent, offense together.  My biggest fear about Milwaukee is Eric’s point exactly, they’re the Brewers: perennial losers that are far too inconsistent.  But I think part of the offense’s problem was that they knew no matter how much they scored, Manny Parra or Jeff Suppan would give up 8 runs.  Not this year.  I think Milwaukee is clearly the division’s most talented team.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

They have four pitchers that could be number one starters on most teams.  Add a very talented offense, and this team should be scary good.

NL West: Colorado Rockies

I just don’t think the Giants have enough hitting to repeat last year’s success, even with their great pitching.  The Dodgers intrigue me, but they have a lot of the same faces heading into this year that didn’t get it done last year.  Ultimately, with Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of the pitching staff and Carlos Gonzalez pairing with Troy Tulowitzki to lead the Rockies lineup, I think the boys at Coors Field will have enough to take the division.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

With rising star Jason Heyward holding down the lineup alongside Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and Nate McLouth (if he can play better than last year) the offense should be pretty good.  Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson represent a dynamite 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.  Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens are solid pitchers as well that fill out Atlanta’s strong staff. 

AL Central: Chicago White Sox

I have too many questions about the concussion issue with Justin Morneau and the surgically repaired arm of Joe Nathan to put the Twins atop the division.  They’ll probably prove me wrong, but I can’t pick them.  I like the White Sox because Ozzie Guillen is crazy, and the lineup of Gordon Beckham, Alex Rios, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teahen could be really good.  If Jake Peavy can get back to full strength, he can make this a solid staff alongside Mark Buerhle and Edwin Jackson. 

AL East: Boston Red Sox

They’re just too good not to win the division.  The Yankees have pitching issues, and the Rays gutted their team.  This could be the first non-competitive AL East race in years. 

AL West: Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz: damn, these guys can hit.  I like the young arms in their rotation and bullpen, though losing Cliff Lee will really hurt.  If they can get something from Brandon Webb, that’d be huge. 

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees

If things are going south come July, they’ll just buy another player and right the ship.  And besides, what would the playoffs be without New York? 

World Series Prediction: The Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Boston Red Sox.

Just too much pitching for anyone to beat Philly this year, and it’s not as if this team can’t hit.  The Phillies might be getting ready to have a historically great year.

--Adam