(2) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (3) Connecticut Huskies
Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:15 Eastern
Network: CBS
Theme: Scrappy Aztecs Try to Stop the Kemba Walker Show
Even though San Diego State is 34-2, I think they’re overrated. In watching them over the first two games they appeared to be a solid but unspectacular team. Needing two overtimes to dispatch a so-so Temple squad should be worrisome for the Aztecs. Conversely, UConn has looked like one of the stronger teams in the tournament. The Huskies easily overwhelmed a Bucknell team many experts believed could pull off an upset or two. Connecticut then beat Big-East rival Cincinnati with relative ease.
Besides how both teams have performed thus far in the tourney, I think UConn has superior personnel. Kemba Walker will be the best player on the floor, and the Huskies’ size inside is something most college teams aren’t prepared for. SDSU will play aggressive pressure basketball and aren’t devoid of length starting three forwards that range from 6’7” to 6’9”. UConn’s starting power forward is Alex Oriakhi (6’9” 240 pounds) and they play 7-footer Charles Okwandu 15-20 minutes per game. Connecticut, besides all their size, play a three guard lineup featuring Walker, and freshman guards Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb. Napier is a very good ball handler and passer, while Lamb is a scorer, good athlete, and accurate three point shooter. Kawhai Leonard is the Aztecs’ best player, but he’s a bit of a tweener. It’s hard to say if he’s a small forward or power forward, and the Huskies have plenty of players that can guard him.
One thing that gives me slight pause is that this game will take place in Anaheim, securing a home court advantage for SDSU. Still, the Huskies have a national fan base and won’t be unrepresented on the West Coast.
Ultimately, when two relatively equal teams matchup, the squad with the best overall player should win. The best overall player in this game will be Walker, and he has plenty of help around him. UConn will own the boards, and the Kemba will own the day.
Prediction: UConn 73 — SDSU 65
(2) Florida Gators vs. (3) BYU Cougars
Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:27 Eastern
Network: TBS
Theme: Jimmer vs. the World
I said in the UConn-SDSU breakdown that when two equal teams matchup, whoever has the best overall player should win. Jimmer Fredette is unquestionably the best player in this game, possibly the whole tournament, but are BYU and Florida relatively equal teams? I don’t think so. Florida has good but not great players all over their roster, fielding a deep, versatile, big, and talented team.
Florida clearly has more talent, size, and athleticism, so the question is can Fredette negate all those disadvantages? Simply, no. Ever since BYU lost their starting center, Brandon Davies, the Cougars have relied even more on Fredette to carry the load. Jimmer will get his points and make some unbelievable shots, but it won’t be enough. Billy Donovan is a great coach, and he’ll be able to win a game where he basically has to stop one guy. Force Fredette to take difficult shots, make him work defensively, and tire him out over the course of the game.
Additionally, Florida will have a big edge in the rebounding battle. The Gators start Chandler Parsons and Vernon Macklin, both 6’10”, forward Alex Tyus is 6’8”, and reserve Erik Murphy is 6’10”. The Cougars’ tallest player is 6’9”. Florida’s guard play is dynamic as well; Erving Walker and Kenny Boyton are excellent scorers that handle the ball and defend.
Jimmer was good enough to beat Gonzaga and Wofford by himself, but the Gators are too competent offensively, too big, and too athletic to overcome. Unless Fredette scores 50, the Gators win.
Prediction: Florida 68 — BYU 58
(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (5) Arizona Wildcats
Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:45 Eastern
Network: CBS
Theme: Arizona’s Athletes vs. Duke’s Precision
The Blue Devils are only getting stronger at the right time of year. Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving is back and should be even better with another week to get into the groove. Guard Nolan Smith should be heavily considered for the Naismith, and forward Kyle Singler is one of the best all-around players in the country. The Plumlee Brothers are unspectacular in the post, but they are solid and use their considerable size well. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide good support, scoring, and depth for the big three of Singler, Smith, and Irving.
Arizona is entirely dependent on the play of the extraordinary sophomore forward Derrick Williams. He’s very strong and can play either inside or out. Singler will be able to guard him on the perimeter, but lacks the strength to give Williams problems in the post. Williams will get his points and give the Blue Devils problems, but he won’t have enough help. The second leading scorer for the Wildcats averages just 9 points per contest. Additionally, ‘Zona doesn’t have great size in the post, something that traditionally gives Duke issues. What Arizona does have is tremendous athleticism across their lineup. They should be able to deal with Duke’s three guards and will have the horses to stay with Singler. Defending the three point shot is vital against the Blue Devils, and Arizona has the potential to do that very well.
In the end though, Duke is too smart, too consistent, and too talented for the Wildcats. I expect Arizona to try to make this an up and down frenetic game. They may succeed for a half, but they won’t be able to dictate pace the whole way. Ho-hum, Duke advances to the Elite 8 once more.
Prediction: Duke 71 — Arizona 63
(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (8) Butler Bulldogs
Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:57 Eastern
Network: TBS
Theme: Defense, Defense, Defense
After reviewing my original bracket and contemplating this piece, I promised to pick with my head and not my heart like I did the first time around. This is the game that will most test that assurance. Of all the Sweet 16 matchups, this one is the most likely to be close throughout. These teams will be back and forth all night, and I doubt either will build a truly sizeable lead. Defensively, these are two of the best groups in the country, they hang their hat on that end of the floor, it’s the identity for both. We will surely witness a low-scoring, grindingly methodical game.
We may also have two of the three best coaches in the country in Butler head man Brad Stevens and Bo Ryan for the Badgers. Stevens is a numbers guy; he finds a way to milk the clock and maximize every possession. Bo knows hoops inside and out; he’s great with his players and makes terrific adjustments.
The key to the game is going to be which team can score down the stretch. In a defensive game that’s close throughout, one team will have to find a way to manufacture some points. Who is more equipped to score in tight situations? Butler certainly has experience after going to the 2010 Final and returning most of that team this year. Guard Shelvin Mack is an exceptional player who has turned up his level in the tournament. Forward Matt Howard is a really smart player that has added three point range to his arsenal of post moves. Wisconsin counters with two oddly similar players. Guard Jordan Taylor is a savvy scorer that leads a Badgers offense that is on a historic pace in terms of limiting turnovers. Forward Jon Leuer, much like Butler’s Howard, can catch the ball on the block or step out to the three line and be effective.
Perhaps my justification for who will win this game comes down to luck. Butler has been very lucky thus far escaping Old Dominion at the buzzer and beating Pittsburgh in the strangest game of the tournament. Stevens’ bunch may have used all of their get out of jail free cards and are unlikely to be so lucky against Wisconsin. Butler has been an inconsistent team on the year that is playing well now, but we’ve seen them have flat performances, and I just don’t see them making the Elite 8 two years in a row. Wisconsin also has played very well thus far in the tournament, and Taylor had his worst game of the season in their last game against Kansas State. In other words, he is due for a big time performance. In a defensive struggle, I believe his play will be the difference.
Prediction: Wisconsin 62 — Butler 59
(2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (11) Marquette Golden Eagles
Tip-Off: Friday, 7:15 Eastern
Network: CBS
Theme: Pros vs. Joes
Talent vs. grit is the name of this game. UNC has the future pros and the pedigree, and Marquette has the “us against the world” card to play. The Golden Eagles also have a tremendous amount of team quickness and athleticism. They play pressuring, aggressive defense, and often double the post to make up for their lack of size. But if UNC can find the open man out of that double team and make their outside shots, they should win going away.
There’s no way Marquette can board with the frontline of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes. UNC is 1st in the country in rebounds per game. Marquette is 104th. Usually when a team has that big of an advantage in such a significant aspect of the game, you know who should win. UNC coach Roy Williams is too good at what he does to lose a matchup where he has such an advantage.
I expect Marquette to make this game ugly, fast, wild, and lots of fun. However, UNC can play up-tempo, and they can win that type of game. The personnel for North Carolina will be too much for feisty Marquette.
Prediction: North Carolina 76 — Marquette 67
(1) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (12) Richmond Spiders
Tip-Off: Friday, 7:27 Eastern
Network: TBS
Theme: Is Cinderella Ready for the Ball?
David vs. Goliath certainly sums up this matchup on paper, though I don’t think Richmond feels that way. The Spiders have grown accustomed to pulling upsets and have made some runs over their history. Kansas typically struggles with mid-majors in the tournament, seeming to play tight. For some reason though, I think the Jayhawks are ready to have their best performance.
When Kansas plays up-tempo and unencumbered, they are really tough to beat. Richmond will have to play a perfect game to win, and even that might not be enough.
Richmond forward Justin Harper is a very good player who at 6’10” can rebound, score from all over the court, and should be able to check one of the Morris twins from Kansas. Spiders guard Kevin Anderson complements Harper as a really talented second scorer. Any time a team has two players that can really light it up, they have a chance.
Unfortunately for Richmond, Kansas has the best post duo in the nation in Marcus and Markieff Morris. Both brothers can step away from the hoop, play with their backs to the basket, rebound, pass, and challenge shots. Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar both really shoot the three ball. Tyshawn Taylor and Josh Selby can also shoot from distance; they bring great speed to the guard positions. Thomas Robinson is an excellent reserve forward who averages 8 points and 7 rebounds in just 15 minutes of game action. Kansas can play eleven guys or can shorten their rotation to eight players. They can play fast, they defend, they shoot the three, and they have talent in the post. Richmond has two very nice players who likely would be backups on the Jayhawks. I just can’t see KU losing this game.
Prediction: Kansas 74 — Richmond 59
(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (4) Kentucky Wildcats
Tip-Off: Friday, 9:45 Eastern
Network: CBS
Theme: Talent as Far as the Eye Can See
This is easily the sexiest matchup of the Sweet 16. There is pro talent all over the floor, and Kentucky just might have more than the top-seeded Buckeyes. Still, no one is playing as well as Ohio State right now. Jared Sullinger has been unstoppable on the block, and he provides wide open jumpers for many a Buckeye marksman—Jon Diebler, William Buford, and David Lighty. Buckeye point guard Aaron Craft has been great all year at setting the table for all the talented scorers on this team. Craft handles the ball well and is a terrific passer and excellent defender. Freshman sixth man Deshaun Thomas is a McDonald’s All-American that would start for most any other team. Buckeye forward Dallas Lauderdale is a monster in terms of challenging shots and using his body to wear down opposing bigs.
Kentucky won’t be intimidated by the size or talent of Ohio State because they can match the Buckeyes player for player. Wildcat center Josh Harrellson is the rare player that can equal Sullinger’s size in the post at 6’10” and 275 pounds. He’s very strong, can score when needed, and plays with excellent body position, a true test for Sullinger. Harrellson doesn’t need to outscore #0; he just needs to make his life difficult. Kentucky forward Terrence Jones can do everything. He’ll shoot, handle, pass, slash, or post up, a tough matchup for the plodding big men of Ohio State. Freshman point guard Brandon Knight is a true star, capable of hanging 30 points if he needs to. Craft will have his hands full checking Knight all day. Knight is flanked by sweet shooting freshman Doron Lamb, who makes threes at a nearly 50% clip. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller provide Kentucky with slashing wing players who can also knock down the outside shot.
Kentucky is the more athletic team, but not by much. Ohio State is stronger inside but just by a nose. With the post and point guard matchups equaling out, I think the wing players will account for the difference in this game. Diebler, Lighty, and Bufford are just too good right now. They will outperform Liggins and Miller.
Prediction: Ohio State 69 — Kentucky 63
(10) Florida State Seminoles vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Tip-Off: Friday, 9:57 Eastern
Network: TBS
Theme: One of these teams is going to be in the Elite 8?
The best thing about this matchup is that a double digit seed is assured of making the quarterfinals. That means we will get one of those Cinderella vs. Perennial Powerhouse matchups in the next round, and we all love that.
This game is relatively simple to break down. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country that both struggle to score on offense. Thus, it should come down to rebounding and turnovers. The team that limits its mistakes and gets the most second chances on the boards should have the most chances to put the ball in the hoop. And I think that team will be Florida State.
The Seminoles’ star player, Chris Singleton, has been working his way back from injury and should be ready to play big minutes in this game. That’s huge because he’s the one guy who FSU can rely on to get tough baskets.
VCU plays a lot of guards; their second tallest player who actually plays significant minutes is just 6’6”. Their biggest player is star forward Jamie Skeen. Skeen is going to have to play possessed to compete with FSU’s size and athleticism in the paint.
This is going to be a really low scoring game, but FSU has the best defense in the nation and are one of the more rugged teams I’ve seen this year. I give the Seminoles the nod.
Prediction: Florida State 56 — VCU 49
--from Adam
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