Football Doldrums

Adam: -Carson Palmer demands a trade from Cincinnati, and if he's not traded, he plans to retire.  Does he have anything left?  If he retires now, is he a bust?

Eric: -In regards to Carson Palmer, I do find it kind of surprising that a player demands a trade from the team he's been on for eight years, the only team he's ever played for, but I cannot be surprised at all that someone would want out of Cincinnati.  That's a bad situation all around.  When they won the division last year, the team was built around a power running attack and a powerful defense.  They got exposed late in the season and the playoffs when they needed to generate big plays, so they went out and got Terrell Owens to help them stretch the field.  But this season, keeping him happy and keeping Chad Ochocinco happy, there just weren't enough balls to go around.  And there certainly weren't enough to maintain Cedric Benson as a work horse.  I'm not passing the buck from Palmer though.  He made a lot of poor decisions, even some that cost the Bengals games.

When you ask if he as anything left, I'm tempted to say no, but I think his retirement threat is just hot air.  The guy can play.  He's only 31, he threw for 3,000 yards in 09's run-first offense and was just thirty yards short of throwing for 4,000 this season.  I'd say he's right around the middle of the pack in comparison to other quarterbacks in the league.  There are about eighteen quarterbacks I'd rate ahead of him, so that means there are still at least fourteen teams that could benefit from his services.  He does have to cut down on his 20 interceptions though.

There was a three year stretch when he was legitimately among the top five quarterbacks in the league.  Sure he never won a championship or even a playoff game, but with two trips to the postseason and with what I just mentioned, I wouldn't call the former number one overall selection a bust were he to retire.  He made the Bungles respectable for a better part of his tenure; that's commendable at least.

I'm curious.  What are your expectations for a number one overall pick, both for a quarterback (a la Carson Palmer) and for any other position (Jake Long, Mario Williams, and the like)?

A: -My expectations for the number one overall pick are just to wait and see.  I think when you get selected as the best football player available in the whole country for that year, you are immensely talented and clearly have worked hard to get to that place.  Still, we've seen so many busts that despite the huge talents of these top picks, you just never really now what you're getting.  Like, I thought Sam Bradford might be another Alex Smith–totally wrong.  I thought Reggie Bush, even though he went second overall, would be the next Barry Sanders/Marshall Faulk–totally wrong again.  You just have to wait and see.

E: -I guess my question about the draft thing was, what do you expect out of their career?  I mean looking back over the player's entire career–not judging from draft day–what does it take for you to consider it a bust or what do you consider a good pick?  I'm not talking about the obvious Ryan Leaf vs. Peyton Manning or stuff like that, or Alex Smith.  Like, is Carson Palmer a bust?  What are your criteria for saying if someone was a bust or was a success?

A: -OK.  Well, it's still a tough question because defining success is tied to your expectations for that player, and I'm not sure what my expectations really are for the number one pick.  I guess you measure it like this, Peyton Manning was the top pick in his draft, so that's how could it good be; those are the types of skills to be expected out of a top pick.  I expect the top pick or a first round draft pick to have loads of talent, and so if they stay healthy and work hard, they should become good NFL players.

Still though, that doesn't really take into account the circumstances surrounding the player.  What if Aaron Rodgers had originally been drafted by San Francisco and Alex Smith by Green Bay?  If Rodgers was thrown into the mess and dysfunction that was and is the 49ers, then maybe that experience ruins him like it has Smith.  Maybe if Smith goes to Green Bay, a great organization with talented players and a Hall of Fame passer to learn from, he becomes an elite quarterback.  It's so hard to say.  I guess as I drone on, I would say that if the player gets drafted to a good team with good coaches and a good fit for his skill set, I expect a first round pick to be a long-time starter if not a Pro Bowler.

Let's look at some number one overall picks and consider their career merits.

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson

Keyshawn is a much debated player.  Surely he was nowhere near as good as he thinks he was, but he was a very productive and sometimes elite player in the league.  His most impressive years were with the Jets where he helped turn a 1-15 team into a 9-7 then 12-4 playoff team.  Then he traveled to the Buccaneers where he did some good things like winning a ring.  He was not the explosive player we saw in New York though, and he talked his way out of town in just three years.  Then he kind of repeated that experience in Dallas: play well for a while, start talking to much, bitch about not getting the ball, then leave the team.  He made three Pro Bowls and recorded 818 catches for just over 10,000 yards and 64 touchdowns.  Those are really good career numbers and he did win a Super Bowl, but was he good enough to merit that number one pick?  Especially consider taking a wideout with the top pick.  Besides Keyshawn, no wideout has gone with the first pick since Irving Fryar in 1984.  Did Keyshawn validate his lofty draft status?  I would say yes for the most part, but my expecations for him were higher than what he ultimately achieved.

2001 - Michael Vick

Yes, he's amazing athletically, but he's never been to a Super Bowl, early in his career he was a bad passer, and he's also a major criminal.  The book isn't written on this guy at all, but to this point would you say he's lived up to being a number one overall pick?  I'm not sure.  He's made some Pro Bowls, won some games, but hasn't gotten his team over the top.  And with the way he plays, who knows how many more chances he'll get?  Thoughts?

2007 - JaMarcus  Russell

This is how bad it can get.  If Peyton is the ceiling, this guy is the basement.  Of course he got picked by the Raiders who couldn't develop Superman into a good football player, but in terms of dysfunction, Al Davis and Russell were a match made in heaven.  They were made for each other, which is to say, terrible for each other's careers.

2005 - Alex Smith

Okay, clearly he's not had a great career, not even a good one, but it's not quite David Carr bad, or Jamarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf/Tim Couch bad.  He has started some games for a bad team and at his best played about average.  Still at only 26, what do you say about Smith's future?  Does he have one?  Could a quarterback guru develop him into a good player or is he just too far gone?

What does the future hold for Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, and Chad Henne?  How will we rank those quarterbacks in three years?

Is Eli Manning a bust?  He's got a ring, but he's not an elite player.

E: -Another thing we have to look with these draft picks is how the guys picked after them did.  That's where a draft pick's "merit" comes from, I'd say.  Was he the best pick, better than anyone else they could've gotten?  I don't know if that weighs in on "bust" distinction, but the comparison is a good tool to evaluate the player's career in general.

I'm sorry, but I don't really have any thoughts on Keyshawn.  Based on his numbers, I would not call him a bust.  I'm looking over the other first rounders in his draft class though and I don't see a lot of guys I'd rather have–Keyshawn-related headaches aside.  Simeon Rice went third and he was a pass rushing force late in his career; it took him a long time to knock off a potential "bust" label.  Jonathan Ogden went fourth, one of the best left tackles in recent memory.  Eddie George went 14.  Marvin Harrison 19.  Ray Lewis 26; now there's a pick.

In regards to Michael Vick, he validates his draft status for a franchise just by the number of tickets he sells.  He is a once in a lifetime player.  I'd definitely take him at number one.  The dog fighting is an issue though.  I'd heard Vick say that he'd been around dog fighting his whole life, that it was just a part of his life, so if the Falcons would have done their homework, they might have seen this coming.  And when his skills were at their peak, Vick wasn't motivated enough to put it all together.  He's changed with the Eagles, so that's good to see.

Does he need a Super Bowl though?  You just said all it takes to validate a number one pick is to have a long career as a starter and maybe make a Pro Bowl.

Others in Vick's first round: LaDanian Tomlinson at 5 and Richard Seymour at 6.  Those are the only guys I think I might consider over Vick.  I also really like Marcus Stroud 13, Steve Hutchinson 17, Casey Hampton 19, and Reggie Wayne 30, but none of those guys are at as important as a position as quarterback.

When we're talking about Alex Smith, I'd just like to point out that Mike McCarthy was the offensive coordinator in San Francisco when they took Smith and passed on Rodgers.  I'd like to think that if Smith would've had any sort of consistency at offensive coordinator, he would've been a much better player.  That said, he's got to be done in San Francisco.  A change would do him good, but more so would sitting on the bench and learning a single system for a few years.  His very occasional flashes of greatness give me some semblance of hope, but that candle is flickering.

Matt Stafford needs to stay healthy.  With Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best, he's got the tools around him.  I think he can be very good but there's a big "if."

Sam Bradford can be good.  Even though he threw every pass for the Rams this year, I still worry about injuries with him.  Very easily and quickly, he could become one of the league's best.

In three years Flacco has three playoff appearances, and none of them were one-and-done.  I just don't think Baltimore's found the right mix around him to put him over the top and into the Super Bowl.

I'm going to defer to your note in the Steelers game about Sanchez; we need to wait one more year to really judge him.  But in two years making two AFC Championships, he's held his own.  He's got a lot surrounding him though.  The Jets' defense can win them games just as easily as Sanchez.

Matt Ryan might be slightly overrated as evidenced by his performance in the Packer game.  He's a great young quarterback and one of the best in the NFC, but he came in and was great as a rookie.  He hasn't taken another step yet.

I don't really know how I feel about Cutler.  He's good.  He can be great.  He can be bad too, and I don't know why.  Jimmy Johnson said his teammates don't really play for him and I can kind of see that.  I'm going to throw out a statement and see if it sticks or if it's completely bogus: we've already seen Cutler's best years.

Josh Freeman has the tools and the talent.  If he continues his present trajectory, continues to grow, he could be one of the best in the league.

Of all the guys you mentioned, Chad Henne is the one I least like as a player.  I don't know what the Dolphins ever saw in him to declare him their quarterback of the future.  He has nice arm strength but lacks accuracy, which is the more important throwing attribute.

I'll go from best to worst in my three year prediction: Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Chad Henne won't start.

Eli is a pussy.

A: -I like the way you're looking at the number one overall thing, but I'm still not sure how to exactly define a bust.

I think Bradford is going to be really good.  If he stays healthy he could be a top-5 passer.

I agree that Cutler's best years are behind him; that's not crazy.  In Denver he had Brandon Marshall and he wasn't established enough to be a total cocksucker yet.  He seems to have gotten dumber, and now with all the different systems he has played in, I think he's confused as a player.  Part of why Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are so great is because they learned one system.  And even if they get new coaches, Brady and Manning are essentially their own offensive coordinators.

You hate Eli...and I love that.