Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey
Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams. New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road. They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years. Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road. If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close. The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player. There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.
Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value. Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler. Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick. So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?” Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years. From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him. If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return. The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league. In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate. Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson. The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender. The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that. The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks. As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.
Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple
Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony. I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid. Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton. In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end. Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them. Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth. The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.
Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony. I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid. Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton. In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end. Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them. Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth. The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.
In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport. Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference. LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction. Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system. None of those players has superstar-level talent. Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare.
Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.” That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement. If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract. With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.
Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking. It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable. You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared. No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed. The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets. They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony. So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver. The Nuggets get a solid point guard in Felton, probably top-15 in the league. Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure. The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player. There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there. They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov. Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one. With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game. Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that. What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room. If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with. JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.
Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block. The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game. When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks. Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.
Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars. The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player. The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package. Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.
--from Adam
Oh Adam, how wrong you were. But so said all the experts, except Peter Vescey and one guy from the News, Bondi i think. Not to say the Knicks are now definitely doomed, but they are probably doomed.
ReplyDeleteCarmelo is a top 20 NBA player, not a superstar. He has flaws in his game, but hopefully he will become a more complete player.
They should have never given up more than Chandler, Galinari and maybe a first round pick, but if i was the gm i would have held the line.
Felton was putting up numbers and doing good things in the 4th quarter. Defensively Billups is a huge liability and he doesn't have the speed to run a D'Antoni offense.
Losing Mosgav hurts, unless Sheldon Williams turns out to be good.
If the team can show some heart and pick up Kemba Walker and a decent big man they have a shot of turning things around.
Todd
Todd:
ReplyDeleteWhile I respect your opinion, and right now the Knicks look bad, this was a long term move. New York was never going to win a title with the corps of Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, Mosgov, and Amare.
You don't win in the NBA with role players, it just doesn't happen. The 2003 Pistons are the only recent exception to that rule, and they won on the strength of defense, not exactly the forte of the Knicks right now.
Recent and past champions have starsl Lakers: Kobe and Gasol, Celtics- Pierce, Garnett, Allen Spurs- Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Earlier Lakers- Shaq and Kobe, Bulls- Jordan and Pippen, Rockets- olajuwon and Drexler, Pistons- Isaiah, Dumars, Laimbeer, and the list goes on. supporting players- which Gallo, Felton, and Chandler are- are vital in support of stars, not as the main pillars of your team.
Stoudemire and Melo are not, in themselves, enough to beat the likes of the Lakers, Heat, Celtics or Bulls. But with those two as building blocks,the Knicks have a chance to craft a title contender around those pieces.
As for Billups, yeah he's a liability on defense, but he wasn't the linchpin of this deal, he was a nice throw in. Give this team a little time. The Heat are in the same situation, it's really easy to nay-say them in their first year together, but championships aren't always built in a year. The Celtics Big three worked right away because all those guys were veterans and fit perfectly in terms of the roles they play.
The Knicks have set themselves up to be a compelling, interesting, and successful team for years to come. Melo was the man in Denver, and took them to a conference finals where they nearly beat the Lakers a few years back. Have Chandler, Gallinari, and Felton ever done something like that? Is a project like Mosgov really going to keep you from acquiring Anthony? Felton has been in the league a while and has never been anything but pretty good, Chandler is a nice wing player but nothing more, and there are major concerns about Gallinari's knees.
If you keep those 3 guys you have virtually no money left to add additional players, so you rely entirely on their development for your success as a franchise. Instead the Knicks land Melo, a proven star, pair him with Amare, and go forward with proven successful commodities that they can still financially afford to build around, especailly when Billups contract is up after next year.
People are so impatient, they want to write the book on a trade three weeks after it happened. You don't become a team in three weeks, you don't develop chemistry mid-season, and you don't establish roles without experience. Sorry, Todd, if this Knicks trade thwarted your starry eyed dreams of being a run-n-gun 6 seed for years to come, I guess you'll have to settle for being even more successful, which must be really painful.