The Heat have three of the best fifteen players in the NBA, and two of the best five. That will be plenty to hammer the opposition during the NBA's semi-lethargic regular season. Things will get much tougher for the Three Amigos once the postseason rolls around and they will have to compete with Boston's depth and savvy, Orlando's inside dominance, the Bulls' speed and versatility, and the general burden of having every team, fan, and arena live to see them lose. Still, LeBron James is the best all-around player in hoops, and with Dwyane Wade on his wing, and Chris Bosh scoring in the post, his effectiveness will (alarmingly) skyrocket. I don't expect James' scoring numbers to dip much because he, Wade, and Bosh will do the bulk of Miami's scoring. James will have a chance though to showcase the two best elements of his game: his passing and transition basketball. With two superstars to fill up the hoop around him, James can play at absolute full speed, which is to say, about two steps ahead of everyone else. I think James is going to thrive in Miami because he has people to share the burden of the spotlight with now, and guys he can trust to make a big shot in the clutch. With Wade and James on the wing, the Heat's perimeter defense will be stifling. Bosh will be huge as, especially in the postseason, an essential offensive force in the pivot when the game takes on a half court style. Health will be a major key for the Heat. If all of the big three can stay healthy and log big-time minutes in the playoffs, they should be in the Finals. If one of the big three goes down, I don't believe the supporting cast is strong enough to make up for that lost production. Speaking of the supporting cast, I do like what the Heat were able to do with incredibly depleted resources after paying three mega-stars. Udonis Haslem is a rock defensively and on the boards. He also has a solid mid-range jump-shot, and that will be perfect for the pick and roll game with James and Wade. Zydrunas Illgauskas has good size and a nice jumper, but he is an absolute statue on the floor and has a lot of weaknesses at this point in his career. Mario Chalmers has a chance to really shine in this offense if he can accept a reduced scoring role and focus on getting the ball where it needs to be at the right times. Mike Miller is a capable scorer off the bench and will fit in nicely as a deadeye, spot up shooter. Still, the players I have thus far listed are about the extent of the Heat's depth, and while all of these players fill a role nicely, none are complete players who can log major minutes in case of an injury. My analysis of this team ultimately comes down to this: James led a talent depleted Cavaliers team to back-to-back sixty win campaigns. Those Cleveland teams were seriously weak, yet James made them elite. Let James play alongside Wade and Bosh, and that trio is better than what Jordan had with Rodman and Pippen, at least from a talent standpoint. The questions for this team will be: Can this team subvert their egos for the good of the team? Can the ball dominating tendencies of the big three meld into an efficient ball sharing offense? Can the big three stay healthy, and how much can the role players provide? James, Wade, and Bosh have the ability to make a lot of these questions null and void.
Predicted Record: 67-15
Team MVP: LeBron James
Key Player for the Heat's Championship Hopes: Mario Chalmers
2. Boston Celtics
The great thing about the Celtics is how much they believe they are the best team in basketball. You could just see that they thought they were better than the Lakers in last year's finals, and had Kendrick Perkins been healthy, they may very well have hoisted the Larry O'Brien last year. The popular depiction of this Celtics team is that they are old and slow. That is in part true, but Kevin Garnett is now two years removed from a serious knee injury, and he seems to be more agile than he has been since the championship season. I think Garnett will look a lot like his old self this year: challenging shots, running the floor, and playing at an All Star level. Ray Allen keeps himself in incredible shape, and he was the best of the big three during the regular season last year. His playoff struggles have been a bit mysterious over the past three seasons, but he is still a very positive player for Boston. Paul Pierce appears to be really slowing down, but can still score both with his back to the basket and in isolation sets. Now, the big three alone can't carry Boston to a title like they did in 2008, but with the depth on this team, they won't have to. Rajon Rondo is a top-five point guard in the NBA, and he increases the effectiveness of every other player on the roster. Rondo gives the Celtics a matchup advantage at point guard against the Miami Heat, and against most other teams as well. Another area where Boston can really exploit the Heat is down low. Yes, Bosh is a great offensive player, but he isn't bulky, and he isn't a real presence at the rim. Enter Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins, and Glen Davis, giving you by far the deepest frontcourt in the league. They can throw so many bodies at opposing bigs that they will wear down other teams. With the exception of Garnett, none of these big men has star potential; they are all viable starting players that can combine to create matchup nightmares for opponents though. The depth in the backcourt is impressive as well with the return of Nate Robinson and Marquis Daniels, plus the addition of Delonte West. This Celtics team has confident, experienced players up and down their roster, and age will be less of a factor because with their depth because no player will have to take on too large of a minutes burden. In the playoffs, the Celtics will have a ton of options against the Heat and Magic, and with their incredible defense they will frustrate any team. Nobody will take Boston out in less than six games, and I would put my money on the Green Machine in most any series. I also think Doc Rivers may be the best coach in the NBA. Talent, experience, depth, and savvy make Boston a frontline favorite for the championship. They will pace themselves during the season, but once those playoffs start, look out.
Predicted Record: 56-26
Team MVP: Rajon Rondo
Key Player: Paul Pierce
3. Orlando Magic
Orlando is a very good team, but without a true sidekick for Dwight Howard, they will never be great. As of right now they simply don't have the horses to beat Boston, the Lakers, or Miami. Howard is as dominant a force as exists in the league, and so this team will win fifty-plus games as usual, but will ultimately be limited in the playoffs. Jameer Nelson is good, not great, and Vince Carter is going to give up as many points as he scores. Rashard Lewis is a good three point shooter, but he disappears for long stretches during big games and is just not worthy of the huge contract that he has. I like the addition of Quentin Richardson, who is a good athlete and can shoot the long ball. Surrounding Howard with shooters is vital because he sucks the defense inside, making kicking the ball out for three's very effective. JJ Redick played very well towards the end of last year, and is a lights out shooter. Michael Pietrus is a solid role player, but will never be more than that. He is a good fit for what the Magic want to do, but he is not the type of player that can put this team over the top. The Magic's only hope for winning a title is if Howard can take a quantum leap in his offensive game. If he can develop a go-to move that takes him beyond being a simple dunker, he could be the best player in the league. If he could improve his free throw shooting and stop fouling so much on defense, then the Magic can beat anyone. But we have been waiting on Howard's offensive game for six years now and it hasn't come. Ultimately the Magic will be held back by Howard's lack of super friends.
Predicted Record: 55-27
Team MVP: Dwight Howard
Key Player: Jameer Nelson
4. Chicago Bulls
Derrick Rose is not ready to be the MVP like many think, but he is a top player in the league. He controls the pace of the game very well, and can get to the hoop whenever he chooses. The only thing holding him back is his lack of a jump shot. If he develops that, he can't be stopped. The addition of Carlos Boozer is huge because the Bulls' Achilles' heel last year was their ineffectiveness in the half court. They did not have a polished go-to player at any position last year, and now they can dump it into Boozer and his refined post game and very nice mid-range jumper. Boozer will be injured with a broken hand to start the year, but once he's back this team will be very tough to beat. The Bulls look a bit like Jazz East with a great young point guard and Utah defectors Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and of course Boozer. The Bulls' frontcourt should be a handful with Taj Gibson, who had a very promising rookie year, Boozer, and Joakim Noah, who is not a great player, but with the addition of Boozer, can simply rebound and block shots. The frontcourt is versatile, young, and athletic. Luol Deng and Brewer will split duties on the wing where Brewer adds tremendous defense and athleticism. Korver gives the Bulls a veritable long bomber that they lacked last year. The Bulls are going to be much better as they have seriously upgraded their talent, but I think they are still a definitive notch below Orlando, Boston, and Miami.
Predicted Record: 51-31
Team MVP: Derrick Rose
Key Player: Luol Deng
5. Milwaukee Bucks
As I look at their roster, I can't believe I'm putting them ahead of the Hawks and Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Josh Smith, but there is just something about this Bucks bunch that I really like. They are like a football team that doesn't have huge talent but just hits hard and nobody likes to play. Andrew Bogut suffered maybe the most disgusting moment in sports history last year when his arm turned practically inside out. But he has had a full off-season and then some to recover; it appears he will be back to full strength sometime in the early season. Let's hope so, because he was really starting to live up to his number one overall draft pick potential last year when he averaged sixteen points, ten rebounds, and three blocks per game. In a league that is center-deprived, those are terrific numbers that give the Bucks a matchup advantage most nights. Brandon Jennings was, at times, one of the best players in the league last year. At others, he was an inconsistent rookie. It was a great sign though that he played big in the playoffs. That's a sign of a player who just has that "it factor" that will make them special. Another special element of Jennings' game is his court vision, which is on par with that of Steve Nash and LeBron. He is the reason that mediocre teammates turned into potent scorers last season. The Bucks also went out and nabbed Corey Maggette who averaged twenty points and five rebounds last year, albeit in Don Nelson's frenzied, chuck-it-up offense. Still, Maggette is a proven scorer upon whom the Bucks can lean to create points and get his own shot. That gives them another isolation threat to add to Jennings and John Salmons. Salmons was a really big re-signing for the Bucks. He is a slasher and efficient offensive player who averaged nineteen points a game once he joined the Bucks in mid-season last year. Jennings, Salmons, Maggette, and Bogut give the Bucks an imposing foursome (all of whom will start) that teams will have to deal with. Drew Gooden was another good signing for the Bucks. He brings experience, size, and solid production. He could start alongside Bogut. Gooden has a solid mid-range game, and had averages of eleven points and eight rebounds per game last year. Carlos Delfino is a nice player off the bench who brings energy and scoring. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a scrapper, a good athlete, loves to rebound, and is slowly improving at the offensive end. Chris Douglas-Roberts could find a spot in the rotation. The nice thing for the Bucks is that they didn't think they would be able to re-sign Salmons because of cap constraints, but they not only re-signed him, they also added Maggette and Gooden. After next year, Michael Redd's gargantuan contract will come off the books, and if they can lure a big time free agent to Milwaukee, they will have the cap space to sign him and have a very nice team waiting.
Predicted Record: 47-35
Team MVP: Brandon Jennings
Key Player: Andrew Bogut
6. Washington Wizards
The Wizards may have one of the most dynamic guard trios in the NBA. John Wall is better than either of his John Calipari predecessors Tyreke Evans or Derrick Rose. That is huge praise. He might not produce like them immediately, but he will be the better player down the road. Wall is blazing fast, and has better fluidity, ball handling, and court vision than Rose. Both Rose and Wall are insane athletes, but I think Wall is more natural on the court. Gilbert Arenas is still an elite scorer, and an even more elite dumbass. But remember that he missed fifty games last year because of his behavior, not an injury. At the start of last year Arenas was coming off knee surgery, but through thirty-two games he averaged twenty-three points and seven assists per game. Throw in Kirk Hinrich, who is a superb defender, good ball handler, and solid offensive option, and the Wiz have a tremendous set of guards. In the frontcourt, look for JaVale McGee to have a breakout year. I see Wall and McGee as a lethal alley-oop combo like Chris Paul-to-Tyson Chandler from a few years back. McGee is maybe the most athletic seven footer in the league (Dwight Howard is just under seven feet). McGee has the biggest vertical of anyone that size I have ever seen, and he runs incredibly well for a big man. McGee had highlight after highlight in the summer league and pre-season; look for him to thrive with three great guards opening lanes for him. Andray Blatche is another interesting big body, who at 6' 11" could form an imposing, huge, and talented frontline with McGee. Blatche rode the bench for much of last year, but got an opportunity late, and for about the last three months of the season was averaging twenty-one points and seven rebounds a game. With Blatche lighting up the score board, and McGee's size and athleticism, this is one of the better 4-5 combinations in hoops. Yi Jianlian is another nimble and talented seven footer that can play the 3, 4, or 5 spots. With his talent and size I'm surprised he has moved so much, but this guy could be an All Star in the right system. Al Thornton is a young, athletic swing forward that can play the 3 or 4 spot. He can score, rebound, and defend, and if he is committed, can be a real impact role player for this team. Nick Young is a long, athletic, offensive-minded guard with big potential. This whole Wizards team has a lot of talent, and Young is no different. I picture him in a Jamal Crawford mold, coming off the bench looking for his shot, and to give his team a lift. Flip Saunders is a solid coach, and with the Bucks and Hawks likely his competition for this sixth spot out East, he should be able to milk this talented squad into a good position.
Predicted Record: 44-38
Team MVP: John Wall
Key Player: Andray Blatche
7. Atlanta Hawks
This may seem like a precipitous drop for last year's three seed and a team that won fifty games, but to quote Big Tom Callahan, "In auto parts you're either growing or you're dying. There ain't no third direction." Tommy Boy reference, but it rings true. The Hawks are largely the same team that has not been able to break through over the past three years, and with an aging leader in Mike Bibby and a soft superstar in Johnson, this team does not have the mental or physical makeup to be an elite team anymore. Horford has not really improved since his rookie year. He is good but not great, and that seems to be where he will stay. Smith is a transcendent athlete that puts up good numbers, but his attitude is awful and he doesn't seem to understand the nuances of the game. Marvin Williams is a pile of potential that isn't amounting to much more than twelve points per game. I really like Crawford as a player, but I'm not sure his style is a great fit for a team that already has plenty of players that fancy themselves as scorers. This team is very talented, no doubt, and if things start well for them, I may be completely wrong in my forecast. But I think if they face some early adversity, they could struggle all year. They also have a rookie coach in Larry Drew, uh-oh.
Predicted Record: 42-40
Team MVP: Joe Johnson
Key Player: Al Horford
8. New York Knicks
Yes Big Apple fans, your team is back. Sort of. With no real great candidates for the eighth spot out East (76ers, Pacers, Bobcats, Pistons) I will take the team with the best singular player of all those squads. Amare Stoudemire should elevate to superstar production as the clear and obvious focal point of the Knicks, who also employ offensive maestro Mike D'Antoni as their coach. I think averages of twenty-seven points and eleven rebounds are completely realistic if Stoudemire is healthy. He has as much offensive variety, skill, and athleticism as any player in the league. The trade of David Lee was also a great move for the Knicks. Lee was overrated and only produced big numbers because he was the best player on a really bad team. He was a good rebounder and a solid offensive player, but nowhere near the talent of Stoudemire. So if Lee could average twenty and twelve, imagine the possibilities with Stoudemire. The Lee trade brought in three talented players that can all fill a role for the Knicks, and depth and talent is just what New York needed. Anthony Randolph is oozing potential, and at 6' 10" there isn't anything he can't do. He is a good scorer, scary athlete, and possesses a guard-like skill set. He's only 21 and hasn't become a star yet, but he could be. Ronnie Turiaf was another nice pickup. He is a tall, wide, and live body that rebounds and challenges shots. Kelenna Azubuike is a veteran slasher, scorer, athlete, and long range shooter that is an ideal fit for what D'Antoni does. Raymond Felton was a coup signing as well. He has big potential and may flourish with all these athletic playmakers around him. Danilo Gallinari has star potential and averaged fifteen points per game last year as a rookie. He could join Stoudemire as a team star. Wilson Chandler will round out their rotation as a versatile and extremely athletic swing forward. This team should score a lot of points and finally has the horses to run D'Antoni's system.
Predicted Record: 41-41
Team MVP: Amare Stoudemire
Key Player: Raymond Felton
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9. New Jersey Nets
Yes, a huge rise for the lowly Nets. I don't think last year's record was indicative of their talent level. Devin Harris is an All Star-level player, and Brook Lopez could be a franchise player at center. Derrick Favors has ability for miles, but likely isn't ready to be a big time scorer as a rookie. Jordan Farmar will get a chance to log a lot more minutes than he did with the Lakers. He brings speed and winning experience to a team that needs it. Terrence Williams is a promising young forward, and Troy Murphy is a serviceable forward/center. There is a long way still to go for this team, yet their position as ninth says more about the bottom of the East than it does about the Nets' progress.
10. Philadelphia 76ers
Evan Turner reminds me a whole lot of Grant Hill, but people who were born in 1995 can't stop comparing him to Brandon Roy, even though he is a lot more like Hill. He has great vision, is a decent shooter, good ball handler, nice athlete, and a smart player. He is good at everything and has room to improve in all areas. This kid will be an All Star in two or three years. Turner will be a really nice combination with the ultra-athletic Andre Iguodala. Those two alone should keep this team in a lot of games. Thaddeus Young is another really good athlete on the wing, and Lou Williams plus Jrue Holiday makes a talented but raw combo at point guard. A key will be if Elton Brand can find a fountain of youth. If Brand stays healthy, this team could push for the eighth spot.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Larry Brown has got to be itching to ditch this declining team. Yes they made the postseason last year, but there just isn't much exciting talent here. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace are good players, but on a Championship-level squad, either of those guys would be the third or fourth-best players. DJ Augustin took a huge step back last year doing virtually nothing. Boris Diaw is a solid but unspectacular veteran forward.
12. Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger is an All Star that absolutely fills up the bucket. Darren Collison could be a top-ten point guard in this league someday and really played well for New Orleans when Paul was injured last year. Those two players should be enough to hold off the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Raptors.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
Oh poor Cleveland. They are only this high because they have some holdover talent and guys that are used to winning. Still, they have very little in the cupboard. Antawn Jamison is a good scorer, and Mo Williams is ever so slightly above average. JJ Hickson has some real ability, but he is raw. The rest of the team is composed of role players that are now going to have to be go-to players. Cleveland just doesn't have the pieces to make any kind of run.
14. Detroit Pistons
They signed Tracy McGrady; that should tell you enough. Will Bynum, Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince will keep them in some games, but not enough. Greg Monroe is a very skilled big man, but his body is not NBA ready. This team will have to do some major restructuring to turn things around.
15. Toronto Raptors
Whoa is this roster terrible. I almost cried just looking at it. You know what, let me save my breath. Look at it yourself and see how many of these guys you've ever even heard of.
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