Divisional Round Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Jets at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Ravens at Steelers	Ravens	Ravens
Packers at Falcons	Packers	Falcons
Seahawks at Bears	Bears	Bears
	Adam	Eric
Wild Card Round Record	3-1	2-2
Wild Card Round Points	10	6
Total Points	158	157
Combined Record  (Regular Season and Playoffs)	151-109	153-107

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

This is a really big spread for two good teams that are division rivals.  Of course, if Rex Ryan is correct and this game is all about himself vs. Bill Belichick, then the spread isn't nearly big enough.  It just shows how well New England has played down the stretch, and surely that 45-3 drubbing they gave the Jets still remains in the odds makers' minds.   I don't think you can take much from either of these teams' two regular season meetings with the most recent clash taking place over a month ago.  Tom Brady has been absolutely ridiculous all season long, and he usually turns it up another notch come playoff time.  The Patriots are back to the offensive system that won them three Super Bowls before Randy Moss arrived.  They are spreading the ball around, taking short and medium gains, and relying on Brady to make the right decision, which he pretty much always does.  They have also found quite a nice balance with the running of Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, a quiet 1,000 yard rusher.  Logan Mankins' return from his hold out has been huge for the Patriots' offensive line as well.  He is a physical presence that is also very sound in pass protection.  On defense the Pats are good against the run, the Jets' strength, and not as stout against the pass, the Jets weakness.  It just isn't a good matchup for New York.  The Patriots will dare Mark Sanchez to beat them, and I'm sure Belichick has a few new looks to confuse him.  Darrelle Revis is playing very well for the Jets, but he's not at last year's level.  Antonio Cromartie is good when matched up with a taller speed receiver that he can get a good jam on and run with.  He doesn't have great lateral burst, and he won't be great against the small, quick moving receivers of New England.  The Jets have lacked bite in their pass rush all year, and the Pats offensive line has been giving Brady eons in the pocket.  Giving Brady time always equals a loss, and it will again on Sunday.

ESPN Line: Patriots by 9

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Jets 17

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Over the last seventeen meetings between these two teams, they've scored the exact same number of points.  The Steelers have won nine of those contests and the Ravens have won eight.  They are probably the two most physical teams in the NFL, and the play in the same division.  They hate each other.  There are great players all over the field; Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Terrell Suggs, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, James Harrison, James Farrior, Halogti Ngata, Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, and I could certainly go on.  The Steelers are 5-3 at home this year; the Ravens are 5-3 on the road this year.  They split their two games this year, each winning by a field goal on the other teams' home field.   In other words, this is going to be a great game, and making a pick is akin to flipping a coin.  I can't say with any certainty who should win, but I have an inkling of who will win.   The major questions marks for each team are, for Baltimore, their pass coverage, and for Pittsburgh, their pass protection.  I think the Ravens' pass rush, specifically Suggs and a dash of Lewis and Ngata, are poised to give the Steelers' offensive line big time issues.  I also think that the Ravens' secondary is a different unit with Reed back healthy, and at a cold Heinz field, the passing game could be tough to get off the ground.  Both running games feature talented and versatile young backs in Rashard Mendenhall for the Steelers and Ray Rice for the Ravens.  I think the difference is the powerful and talented Ravens offensive line will be able to gain some momentum against a Steelers defensive line that is still without stalwart Aaron Smith.  Offensively the Steelers will have difficulty moving Ngata, who has been the league's best defensive lineman all year.  Lewis will of course be a monstrous factor as well, stuffing the run, spying Roethlisberger, and dropping into coverage.  There won't be any tricks in this game, no surprises whatsoever.  It's going to be two teams that are great at what they do, play the same style of football, and know each other inside and out.  This game is going to be some about luck, some about gameplan, and mostly about sheer will.  I think the Ravens are eager to show on a national stage that they can win a prime time game against their arch rivals.  The Steelers have two recent super bowls, and the Ravens feel they need to keep pace for bragging rights in the AFC North.  It's of course going to come down to a field goal, so take it away Billy Cundiff.

ESPN Line: Steelers by 3

Prediction: Ravens 16 – Steelers 13

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

What a day of football Saturday is going to be, first the slug fest in Pittsburgh and then the high wire act in Atlanta.  Green Bay brings a swarming defense to the Georgia Dome where the Falcons are nearly impossible to beat.  The Falcons certainly have the edge in the running game, and that was a big factor when these two teams battled in the regular season.  The Packers hit their stride running the ball with James Starks last week, but I'm not positive that is going to be a trend.  I think having gone to Atlanta earlier in the year provides an advantage for the Packers.  The environment won't be new or overwhelming, likely just a bit louder.  Plus playing in a dome really favors the Packers' style of play more than it does Atlanta's.  The Packers want to throw the ball forty times a game and spread the ball all over the field.  They want to put the game squarely in the hands of the best player on the field, Aaron Rodgers.  Meanwhile the Falcons aren't afraid to let Matt Ryan zing the ball around, but they prefer complement him with a smashmouth running attack.  This game will come down to whether Green Bay's front seven can slow down Michael Turner and Jason Snelling.  The Packer secondary has been good, and Clay Matthews always makes passing the ball a dicey proposition for opponents.  At times this year, teams have run at the Packers effectively, and the Falcons certainly have the capability to do just that.  BJ Raji has been playing very well lately, Cullen Jenkins is back healthy, and everyone on the defense seems to have found their groove.  I look for Rodgers to have a signature performance with the weight of winning his first playoff game lifted, and the Packers will hit big plays early in the passing-friendly dome environment.  I think if the Falcons are forced to throw the ball more than they would like, they can't win the game.  They are best when they dictate tempo with their rushing attack, and I don't think the high octane Packers will allow that to happen.

ESPN Line: Falcons by 3

Prediction: Packers 31 – Falcons 23

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

I would have laughed in your face if you told me this would be a divisional round playoff game before the season started.  But hey, it happened, and here we are.  I think the Bears being ten point favorites in this game might be a little much, but they should certainly be favored by a healthy margin.  That doesn't mean that I think Seattle can't win this game though.  If you can beat the Saints one week, you can beat anybody on any given day.  Matt Hasselbeck played really well last week, and though the defense gave up a slew of points, they won some battles against the potent Drew Brees.  The Bears have been a head scratcher of a team all year.  I still can't believe they only lost four games.  They have a turnover prone passer, a bad offensive line, and mediocre wide receivers.  The defense is good but not great, but the kick returner is incendiary.  Still, there's something to be said for knowing how to win, and I think in front of a blood thirsty home crowd, the Bears will have just enough.  I can't see the Seahawks winning twice in Chicago.   Plus, who doesn't want to see a Bears-Packers NFC Title bout?

ESPN Line: Bears by 10

Prediction: Bears 22 – Seahawks 17