Wild Card Weekend Pick-Down

Way back when we started this little Pick-Down enterprise we laid down some ground rules based on picks and scoring. They went as follows:

A correct pick in the regular season will be worth one point.  That's all well and good, but in the postseason, we'll need to up the stakes.  In the first two rounds of the playoffs, each correct pick will be worth two points, a correct pick in the Conference Championship round will be worth four points, and a correct Super Bowl pick will be worth eight.  To add a wrinkle though, if you pick an underdog (meaning lower seed in the first three rounds, then we'll go by the oddsmakers when we get to Dallas) in any playoff game and are correct, you'll double the pick's point value.  If you pick an underdog and are incorrect, you'll lose the original value of the pick.

So there you have it.  And without further ado: Our picks for the Wild Card Round.

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Jets at Colts	Jets	Colts
Ravens at Chiefs	Ravens	Ravens
Packers at Eagles	Packers	Packers
Saints at Seahawks	Saints	Saints
	Adam	Eric
Week 17 Record	10-6	10-6
Regular Season Final Standings	148-108	151-105
Points	148	151

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

The Jets are not a great passing team, but they run the ball, stop the run, and are very good against the pass.  They have the corners to matchup with what is a banged up Indy receiving corps.  Peyton Manning is a great player, and he's done a remarkable job of leading this depleted team to ten wins.  I just have a feeling however that they don't have the weapons or live bodies to make a run in the postseason.  The Colts ended the year by beating the Titans, Jags, Raiders, and Titans again by only a combined 20 points; before that they lost three in a row.  This team ended its run just scraping by.  Brad Smith is probably good for one huge special teams play for the Jets, and I think Mark Sanchez can do enough passing the ball to not mess things up.  Another element to consider is that the Jets have one of  the few offensive lines capable of blocking Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.  They will also be able to maul the soft middle of Indy's defense in the running game.  Ultimately the Jets just have too many advantages for Manning to overcome.

ESPN Line: Colts by 3

Prediction: Jets 27 – Colts 23

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has a lot of things going for them in this matchup, save for the confidence of the media and fans.  The Chiefs can run the ball, have a very efficient passing game, are good on special teams, and play pretty solid defensively.  They are also playing at home where they are 7-1 this year.  Yet, I must admit, despite all the good developments in KC, I too am a doubter.  I think the Chiefs' coaching staff has managed this team beautifully all year, won the games they should have, and gotten a lot out of a young roster.  If system quarterbacks exist, then this Chiefs team is a system team.  Their coaches put them in good positions and they're a solid team, but they have limitations.  They are third from the bottom of the league in passing yards per game–though they are first in rushing yards per game.  Matt Cassell has a great touchdown to interception ration (27 to 7) but the Chiefs want to sit back and let other teams make mistakes.  In the playoffs you have to be the aggressor, be capable of throwing a knockout punch with a quick strike.  Sustaining drives can be very tough against hungry playoff defenses, and the Chiefs are a methodical offense.  I'm not sure that bodes well against the stout Ravens.  For Baltimore offensively, they have to start with Ray Rice, stay with Ray Rice, and end with Ray Rice.  Mix in some Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason and the Ravens should be able to produce enough points to win a toughly contested game.

ESPN Line: Ravens by 3

Prediction: Ravens 19 – Chiefs 13

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

A road team in the playoffs favored by double digits?  Welcome to 2011; it's a brave new world.  Seattle finds itself in the unfortunate position of representing the NFC West in the playoffs, even though they really could use the top 10 pick a 7-9 record would usually fetch.  Qwest field is a tough place to play, but Seattle doesn't have much else going for it.   All nine of their loses this year have been by more than 15 points, not a sign of a very competitive team.  Matt Hasselbeck, who has not been great this year anyway, comes into this game really banged up.  Charlie Whitehurst could see the field.  It won't matter which quarterback plays for Seattle though with a shaky offensive line, average receivers, and the second-worst rushing attack in the league.  Not to mention, Seattle's low-ranking defense against both the run and pass now faces a prolific Saints offense.  Also, as my esteemed colleague Eric pointed out, the Saints have likely been preparing for Seattle for two weeks now.  This one will be over quick.

ESPN Line: Saints by 11

Prediction: Saints 37 – Seahawks 16

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

The game of the weekend pits maybe the two quarterbacks most difficult to prepare for in all the league.  Aaron Rodgers vs. Michael Vick is as good as it gets, plus there is plenty of other talent to watch in this game.  DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, LeSean McCoy, Donald Driver, Jeremy Maclin, Clay Matthews, Asante Samuel, Trent Cole, Charles Woodson.  There are plenty of Pro Bowlers on the field.  These are also two teams that absolutely nobody wants to see later in the postseason.  Green Bay's lack of a running game will be an issue more in this game than perhaps it would be if they advance and play in a dome environment (I'm looking at Atlanta and New Orleans).  It's gonna be cold and there's a chance of snow.  While those conditions aren't great for Green Bay's passing game, I think they effect Vick's mobility in an even more significant way.  The Minnesota Vikings showed the blueprint for beating Philadelphia, who are coming off two straight losses entering the playoffs.  The Vikings blitzed their secondary early and often.  The rushers were extremely disciplined, staying in their lanes while containing Vick.  They got a lot of hits on him; it effected his speed, his willingness to take off and run, and also threw off his rhythm passing the ball.  Jackson is tiny, McCoy is a smaller back, and Maclin is pretty slight as well.  Hit this team all game, and they aren't nearly as explosive.  The Packers have one of the best defenses in football, a great pass rushing linebacker in Matthews, and a damn good blitzing corner/ball hawk in Woodson.  They are very stout up front and should be able to create penetration against Philly's shaky offensive line.  When the Packers have the ball, Rodgers will extend the play often, but has to be ware of Cole stripping the ball or Samuel jumping routes.  I think Rodgers could hit some double moves to Jennings and Driver to punish the usually aggressive Eagles.  I think we're in for a great game with two tremendous quarterbacks, but in the end I'll take Rodgers and the Packers' defense to carry the day.

ESPN Line: Eagles by 3

Prediction: Packers 26 – Eagles 24