| Matchup | Adam's Pick | Eric's Pick |
|---|---|---|
Ravens at Patriots | Ravens | Patriots |
Giants at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
Adam | Eric | |
Divisional Round Record | 4-0 | 2-2 |
Divisional Round Points | 10 | 2 |
Total Points | 164 | 182 |
Playoff Record | 5-3 | 4-4 |
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs) | 163-101 | 184-80 |
The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
I pick the 49ers because they possess more balance as a team than the Giants do across the board. They are better on special teams, defense, and running the ball. The only advantage New York has is Eli Manning. That same rationale is why I believe the Ravens will win in chilly Foxborough. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker, the best tight end I may have ever seen in Rob Gronkowski, plus a tremendous all around threat in Aaron Hernandez. But beyond that?
Fact: New England hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. It’s true. The only teams with winning records they faced, the Steelers and the Giants, they lost to.
What shouldn’t be lost is that Pittsburgh, the Giants, and the Ravens all can get pressure rushing just four men, which allows them to throw a lot of defensive backs on the field and hurry Brady without giving him obvious spots to throw the ball. Terrell Suggs is one of the best pure pass rushers in football, and the Patriots will have to double team him if they want to stop him from wreaking havoc. Doubling Suggs will force the Patriots to single block somebody and delay the release of a tight end or running back, a disadvantage to New England’s timing-based offense.
I expect the Pats to try to establish some semblance of a running game, and I expect that to be thoroughly rejected by the likes of Haloti Ngata, Corey Redding, Terrence Cody, Ray Lewis, and Suggs and company. All of this is a way of saying I think the Ravens can make New England one-dimensional.
Tom Brady can certainly win a game by putting a team on his back, but I don’t think he can do it against Baltimore. If Suggs can pin his ears back, then Ngata will almost certainly get push up the middle, the type of pressure that most disrupts passers, and Brady will be forced off rhythm. If Brady has to throw often and force some throws, expect ballhawks Ed Reed and Ladarius Webb to pick him off once or twice. They may get burned gambling once or twice as well, but Brady scores so often that if you can force a turnover, the risk is worth the reward.
Nobody on the planet earth can physically match Gronkowski, but Baltimore has the bruising linebackers in Suggs and Lewis to at least put a lick on him at the line of scrimmage or coming across the middle.
Baltimore has a statistically elite defense to match New England’s great offense. Conversely, Baltimore’s middle-of-the-road offense will match up with a Patriot defense that is statistically one of the worst units of all-time. The Patriots were seventeenth defending the run and allowed the 2nd-most passing yards ever. Joe Flacco is not a great quarterback, but with Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Ray Rice, and some solid options at tight end, he should be quite effective against the soft Pats pass defense.
More than Flacco throwing the ball, I expect Baltimore to employ the tag team of Ray Rice and his fullback Vonta Leach often. I think Rice needs a minimum of 25 carries in this game. That will keep Brady off the field, set Flacco up for success, and help the Ravens’ defense stay fresh.
I know the Patriots offense is sexy, and the fact that they haven’t won a Super Bowl in a while makes them an alluring pick. But the fact is that Baltimore has been in the postseason six of the last seven years and hasn’t made it to the big game either. The Ravens are just as hungry, they know how to beat New England, and they know how to win in the playoffs. Football and crab cakes, that’s what Maryland does! Give me the Ravens as the more balanced attack to go on the road and, bounce New England to set up (gasp) The Harbaugh Bowl!
Prediction: Ravens 23 – Patriots 20
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
When I first started to hear all the talking heads, publications, and media types essentially guarantee that the Giants were going to roll into San Francisco, beat the 49ers, and advance to the Super Bowl, I was upset at the lack of respect for the Niners, but then I remembered that the media is a “flavor-of-the-day” type of business. Last week the Saints were the hottest team in the history of the world, and this week it’s the Giants. I also noticed that more than thinking the Giants would win, the sports media seems to be focused on the prospect of a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl rematch, which I think influences the thinking to a large degree.
People tend to look at the stat sheet from the Saints-Niners Divisional Playoff game and see that Drew Brees threw for 462 yards and think the San Fran’s defense broke down. What they don’t realize is that Brees also threw the ball 63 times because the Niners knocked Pierre Thomas out of the game and shut down a good Saints rushing attack. As a team the Saints ran the ball 14 times for 37 yards, a 2.6 per rush average. Thomas was the seventh running back the 49ers have knocked out of the game in their seventeen contests this season. Of course Brees is bound to put up video game yardage when he has to throw all day long.
People also look at the 32 points San Fran allowed as another sign of defensive breakdown, but really aside from one play where Darren Sproles broke loose, the 49ers played one of the better defensive games I’ve seen all year. The late touchdown to Jimmy Graham was kind of a fluky play where Patrick Willis and the safety covering fell down and misjudged the ball. It just as easily could have been Brees’ third interception.
The other thing people fail to realize is that the Giants beat the Packers because they are perfectly constructed to beat a team like Green Bay. New York can get tremendous pressure with their front four, allowing seven men to drop back into coverage, and all the Packers want to do is throw the ball. Eli Manning is one of the few players that can match Aaron Rodgers in an aerial show, and the Giants have great run after catch receivers in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. That, combined with the Packers’ lack of pass rush and horrendous tackling, united to make the Giants a glass slipper fit to beat the Packers.
When they face the 49ers, the Giants won’t be putting four defensive ends on the field all that often because San Francisco has no desire to throw the ball 40-50 times. The Niners would rather line up and use their 8th-ranked rushing attack to wear out the Giants 19th-ranked rush defense, and in the process beat up on the vaunted pass rushers of New York.
It should also be noted that while the Giants do get good pressure, when they don’t, it’s big trouble. New York ranks twenty-ninth in the league in passing yardage allowed per game.
The 49ers will also make the Giants one-dimensional, which is exactly what they did to the Saints and what they’ve done all season. Over the course of the year the 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, per attempt, and the least rushing touchdowns of any team in the entire league. And unlike New Orleans, the Giants do not possess five bona fide weapons (Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson) in the passing game to distract the 49ers from playing the run. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are very good players, but they are the only truly imposing threats in the passing game. Thus, instead of chasing All-Pro tight end Graham and the do-everything Sproles around all day, the 49ers linebackers (especially NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) can key on stuffing the run, reading Manning, and freelancing more to make plays. Carlos Rogers has earned every bit of his trip to the Pro Bowl this year, and he will lock down on either Cruz or Nicks while the other wideout will likely see quite a bit of double coverage.
The Giants are healthier than they were when San Francisco beat them earlier in the year, but the 49ers blew that game open only to have the Giants rally late in fourth quarter to make the score closer than it should have been. Like now, the Giants were a “hot team” coming into San Francisco at 6-2. In that game the 49ers did what they always do: played superior special teams, limited Brandon Jacobs to 55 yards on 18 carries, and won the turnover battle, intercepting Manning twice. Cruz and Nicks had a combined 8 catches for 125 yards.
Although the Giants certainly can get pressure with their front four, they don’t blitz that often, and that’s what Alex Smith likes most. He’s not good against added pass rushers, but one of his better throwing performances on the year came against New York because they only rushed four guys, which opened passing lanes and gave Smith the ability to read the coverage.
The Giants’ linebackers and secondary are not particularly talented, and Vernon Davis is a complete mismatch for them. I look for the Niners to pound the ball to set up the play-action pass, max protect Smith, and let him make throws when they are presented.
The 49ers were inexperienced in the playoffs heading in, but that game against the Saints was about as big a stage with as much pressure as any team could possibly face, and the 49ers answered the bell. They are ready for the next step, no longer with any questions about what playoff football is all about. With the best defense and special teams in the league, I expect the 49er offense to again do enough to beat the “red hot” Giants at what should be a rocking Candlestick Park. The Niners win and advance to the Super Bowl, and I wet my pants.
Prediction: 49ers 26 – Giants 17
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