Before I launch in to what is going to be the my meat of my discussion here, let me preface my subject matter by saying that a 13-3, first-round bye-earning 49ers has me about as happy as a person could be. I never expected this amount of success, and the few times they’d lost this year I had to pinch myself and remember that it was an optimistic outlook when I pegged them for eight wins going into the season.
The question though, similar though more subtle than questions about Tim Tebow in Denver, is: can Alex Smith sustain this level of play, elevate it, or at the least do enough to keep the 49er train rolling? Unlike Tebow, Smith doesn’t need to completely re-work his throwing motion, nor is he perhaps better suited to play fullback. It’s just, nobody is quite sure if he’s capable of being anything more than a pretty solid quarterback.
The debate on Smith has been ongoing but reached a pinnacle this morning when I heard Kordell Stewart argue on ESPN radio that Smith was a Pro Bowl snub and deserved to make the squad over Eli Manning. Stewart’s argument was that Smith had done exactly what his team needed and led them to a tremendous record in the process, whereas Manning, for all of his great stats, was merely 8-7 at the time.
Stewart raises an interesting point. Is Smith having a consistent but underwhelming statistical year because that is the formula for his team to win or because he is getting the maximum level of production from his limited talent reservoir? Smith, finished the year with 3,144 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. His 90.7 passer rating ranked ninth league-wide.
While those numbers are certainly solid, they are far from spectacular. And are they reflective of a quarterback that can lead his team to a Super Bowl? Perhaps, given the Niners’ outstanding defense, great special teams, and strong running attack, Smith is exactly what he needs to be.
This is the point in the Smith discussion where we point out that he’s had a different offensive system every year that he’s played in the league, save for one, and that his circumstances entering the league where less than ideal, coming to an awful 49er team. But with all of that changed, with the stability of a great coach who’s also offensive minded and a former quarterback, is Smith’s best season as a pro a sign of progress toward a higher level or simply the genius of Jim Harbaugh squeezing every last bit of production out of an average player?
You might ask, “Why does it matter?” The 49ers are 13-3, whatever Smith is doing is working, so why tinker with it? That’s a fair point, but the 49ers aspirations are no longer to win a bad division and shoot for an 8-8 record. This team wants a championship, and for that to happen the quarterback must be more than adequate. Smith is on a one-year deal right now, so these questions become even more pressing when assessing the future.
A starting quarterback at the age of 27 (Smith’s age) is going to want big-time dollars, especially after leading his team to 13 victories. Yet Smith still sails passes over wide open receivers, struggles mightily on third down and in the red zone, and fails to make many explosive plays down the field.
With another year to get comfortable and fully master Harbaugh’s offensive attack, Smith may finally hit the tier of elite play where he can be a 4,000 yard passer and take a team on his back and win games by himself. That could happen, but I just don’t see it. Usually when a player is going to breakout, we see flashes of brilliance. Aaron Rodgers looked magnificent when he had to come in and play for an injured Brett Favre against a tough Cowboys team in an ’08 game before becoming the starter in ‘09. Andy Dalton and Cam Newton have already showed us glimpses of what could be awesome careers.
Yet Smith never quite looks that way. 49er fans are just relieved when he hits a receiver in stride. The ball hardly ever fires from Smith’s hands with conviction, and he rarely makes a throw where as a fan you say, “That was a pass few players can make.”
My inclination is that Smith may get better with another year in Harbaugh’s system but will never be anything more than a B-level player. In this league, that may be good enough for a lot of wins, and with their defense, the 49ers may even be able to win a Super Bowl, but it makes their margin for error razor thin.
So what to do with Smith and his expired contract at the end of the year? If there are no other viable options, you simply have to pay him. A 13-win season is something Niner fans have been waiting for since Smith arrived, and even before that. This franchise has been god-awful for a near decade, and to change anything about a team that has had such a terrific season is going to draw extreme scrutiny from all sides. If nothing else, Smith has proven that with the right cast and good coaching, he can be a winner.
The option I like better is one that has been bandied about talk radio quite frequently, so it may have some legs or it may be pure conjecture. Many are talking about the 49ers trading for Peyton Manning, who seems to be getting healthy, and will likely be replaced with the Colts’ future number one overall pick, Andrew Luck. The thought is that Luck is ready to play right now, and the Colts would be wasting time having him sit behind Manning and should test the market to see what they could get in return for Peyton.
In the event that Manning was completely healthy, he would still be an elite player for another two-to-three years and would want to finish his career where he had a chance to win a championship. With Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Michael Crabtree, plus a stout offensive line and a great defense at his back, Manning would have the kind of cast he could lead to great heights. He could also tutor what must be regarded as the 49ers’ future at quarterback, last year’s second-round pick Colin Kaepernick.
Beyond Manning the free agent crop is pretty dry at quarterback, and drafting yet another rookie passer would just be a step in the wrong direction unless somehow the 49ers were able to attain Andrew Luck.
Smith won’t be content to play the backup role next year, nor would he sign with the 49ers for backup money, so San Francisco’s options are limited. They can either sign Smith to at minimum a 3-year deal worth likely a large sum or make a move for Manning hoping that he can be fully healthy coming off of (gulp) neck surgery and can elevate a very good team into a Super Bowl favorite.
Either way, Kaepernick won’t be ready for another year or two, and even then we cannot be sure what type of player he will be. The most likely scenario appears to be that Smith will get re-signed in San Fran, and the Faithful will have to hope that he develops further under the guru Jim Harbaugh. It’s not the best scenario in the world, but it no longer feels as though the 49ers are being held hostage by Alex Smith. If he returns as the starter next year—and for the foreseeable future—I will be hopeful about him progressing, though I never see him turning the corner to become a truly great quarterback.
--from @AdamHocking
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