| Matchup | Adam's Pick | Eric's Pick |
|---|---|---|
Bengals at Texans | Bengals | Texans |
Steelers at Broncos | Steelers | Steelers |
Lions at Saints | Saints | Saints |
Falcons at Giants | Falcons | Falcons |
Adam | Eric | |
Week 17 record | 11-5 | 13-3 |
Final Regular Season Standings | 158-98 | 180-76 |
Points | 158 | 180 |
The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.
This is a rematch of a really close game in Week 14; the Bengals lost in Houston 20-19.
TJ Yates should be ready to play in this game after sustaining a mild injury to his non-throwing shoulder, but he should be fine. I think it’s funny how media and Texans fans alike are breathing a sigh of relief as if not having Yates is akin to not having Peyton Manning. Yates is a third-string, rookie quarterback! Still, I guess the threat of Jake Delhomme weaseling his way into the game in place of Yates would frighten me as a Houston fan too.
Andre Johnson should play in this game, though with recent and lingering hamstring issues in both legs, his effectiveness is certainly in question. Johnson caught two passes for 21 yards last week, but perhaps he was just getting back into the flow of things.
If Johnson is ready to rumble, the Texans are frightening. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are as good a running combo as there is in all of football, and combined with talented tight end Owen Daniels, a potentially healthy Johnson, and a top offensive line, the Texans have a more well-rounded attack than the Bengals.
Offensively the Bengals are a little more limited, though I like Andy Dalton more than Yates. They pound the rock with Cedric Benson who grinds out 3.9 yards per attempt but is never explosive. His long run on the year is 11 yards. Seriously. AJ Green is a star, but he should be somewhat neutralized by the play of Pro Bowl Houston corner, and former Bengal, Jonathan Joseph.
I’m backed into a corner in this game as Eric and I have the same picks for the other three Wild Card matchups, and I like this as my upset special. Mainly I like Andy Dalton. I think he’s the type of guy who plays calmly and plays well in big games. AJ Green is a stud, Jerome Simpson has big play ability, and Jermaine Gresham can be a factor if targeted enough.
The Bengals will control the clock with Benson, keep the Texans’ pass rush honest, and hit enough big plays to their wide outs to spoil the Texans’ first ever playoff appearance. It will be close, and the mere presence of Arian Foster makes me really worry about this pick, but I’ll ride with the Red Rifle. Who dey?
Prediction: Bengals 24 – Texans 23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
The Steelers are certainly banged up. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t looked himself in the last few weeks, and feature back Rashard Mendenhall is lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Yet this game won’t be so much about the limitations that Pittsburgh has on offense. It will be about the fact that Tim Tebow is the worst starting passer in the NFL. Last week in a crucial game at home, Tebow went 6-22 for 60 passing yards, one of the worst stat lines you will ever see. His completion percentage on the season is 46.5%, by far the worst of any player that has seen his share of starts on the year.
Opposing Tebow will be the stingiest defense in the league both in terms of scoring and passing yards against—just what the worst passer in the league needs, the best pass defense in the league coming to town.
Denver’s bread and butter, their rushing attack, should be bottled up by Pittsburgh stacking at least eight and often nine men in the box to stop Tebow and Willis McGahee from getting on track.
The league has figured out Tebow. The Broncos have scored less than 17 points or less in five of their last seven games. That trend will continue Sunday.
Prediction: Steelers 20 – Broncos 6
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
According to ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd, Las Vegas odds makers consider this year’s New Orleans Saints to have the single greatest home field advantage in NFL history, in terms of how many points they are consistently favored by in the Superdome. In home games this year the Saints average 41 points and are a perfect 8-0.
The Lions certainly bring some pizzazz, or if you prefer, razzle-dazzle to this matchup, but they lack the depth and well roundedness of New Orleans. While the Lions are positively dynamic throwing the ball—Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards this season—they rank twenty-ninth in the league in rushing yards per game. The Saints meanwhile threw for even more yards than did Detroit and conversely rank near the top of the league, sixth, in running the ball at 133 rushing yards per contest.
The Saints are terrible at defending the pass however, ranking thirtieth, and while their run defense is respectable, I would expect the Lions to make no bones about the fact that Stafford will throw the ball all day long.
Detroit's front four has been more talk than walk this year, allowing opponents to run for 128 yards per game on them, twenty-third league-wide. Though the Lions did notch 41 sacks on the year, tenth, and at least give Drew Brees cause to lose a little bit of sleep. New Orleans counters of course by allowing the second fewest sacks in the league.
Also, Detroit is +11 in turnover ratio on the year whereas New Orleans is -3; that’s pretty significant when you think that each possession could potentially lead to points.
Ultimately I think the Saints have as much explosive potential as the Lions with a lot more ball control mixed in. Even without Mark Ingram, the Saints’ three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and Darren Sproles will be adequate behind a powerful offensive line. Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston are good possession targets, as is Sproles coming out of the backfield. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem provide the vertical threat that keeps defenses honest and opens up the entire field for Brees to dissect.
Stafford will make his plays, but expect Calvin Johnson to see two defenders focused on him all day. Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, and Nate Burleson have to be chain movers for Stafford if Detroit hopes to maintain some balance, and running back Kevin Smith could use at the very least an 18-carry, 75-yard-type rushing line.
Even so, I think home field, the mastery of Brees, and the balance of the Saints will be too much for the talented but immature Lions.
Prediction: Saints 34 – Lions 28
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
The Giants are getting healthy with Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck back at full strength to help full-fledged stud Jason Pierre-Paul create a tenacious pass rush. The Falcons counter with a good offensive line that allowed the 6th-fewest sacks this season (just 26 all year). If the Falcons can keep Matt Ryan clean, Atlanta should be able to dictate the time of possession battle. Though the run game for the Falcons is perhaps a bit overrated (just seventeenth in rushing yards per game) having a workhorse like Michael Turner is a huge factor.
While the Falcons can dominate the ball a little longer and have a host of good skill players in Ryan, Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, the Giants are a bit more of a quick strike team. Eli Manning is certainly playing at a high level, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards on the year, but the idea that Ryan will be overmatched in the quarterback battle is probably more media hype than substance. Ryan’s completion percentage this year is slightly higher than Manning’s, they threw the same amount of touchdowns with 29, and Ryan tossed 12 interceptions to Manning’s 16. Manning finished the year with a 92.9 passer rating compared to Ryan’s 92.2.
When looking for the main advantage in this game it’s easy to think at first glance that the Giants will win the aerial game and the Falcons will stick to ground and pound. In reality, the Falcons throw the ball just as efficiently as New York but run the ball at a much higher level. New York allows 4.5 yards per rushing attempt, while they muster just 3.5 yards per run when they possess the ball.
Atlanta is also better in the field goal game, and in a game that should be close, having Matt Bryant (27-29 in field goals this year) is better than having Lawrence Tynes (19-24). Looking at home field advantage isn’t very telling either. The Giants are 4-4 at home, and the Falcons 4-4 on the road.
Overall the Falcons have been the more consistent team on the season.
Atlanta will play conservatively on defense, not allowing Victor Cruz to get behind the secondary or Hakeem Nicks to carve them up either. On offense they will use their greatest asset, their balance, to keep the Giants’ pass rush honest and expose what is a weak linebacking group and secondary for New York. If you can neutralize the Giants’ front four, you beat them, and I think Atlanta will.
Prediction: Falcons 27 – Giants 24
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