| Matchup | Adam's Pick | Eric's Pick |
|---|---|---|
Broncos at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
Texans at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
Giants at Packers | Giants | Packers |
Saints at 49ers | 49ers | Saints |
Adam | Eric | |
Wild Card Round Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
Wild Card Round Points | -4 | 0 |
Total Points | 154 | 180 |
Combined Record (Regular season and playoffs) | 159-101 | 182-78 |
The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.
First two quick asides: As a huge fan of the 49ers, there is bound to be bias in my predictions going forward, but at 13-3 they have proven to be an excellent football team. Moreover, I’m really just excited to be talking about San Francisco in the context of a divisional round playoff game. It’s been a long time, and it feels fine. Second quick thought: I like the symmetry of the divisional round this year. In a season where passers like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford took statistics to new heights, we also have the likes of TJ Yates, Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, and Joe Flacco still alive. In fact, we have an equal divide of flamethrowers (Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady) and so-called “game managers” (Smith, Flacco, Yates, and Tebow). Just some food for thought, but I digress. Now, my predictions!
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
We all saw the Tebow Magic last weekend against Pittsburgh, and I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see that kind of performance coming. But I also steadfastly believe that Tim Tebow is not a starting-caliber passer in the NFL, and the reason for his success against Pittsburgh was the extent to which the Steelers stacked the box and dared Tebow to throw.
Even though New England has a horrible defense statistically, I think Bill Belichick will devise a way to allow Denver a lot of yards between the 20s and then stiffen in the red zone.
Basically for me it comes down to who is going to be better in the red zone, Denver or New England. Both teams are going to move the ball. Denver will pile up yards because the Patriot defense is atrocious, and New England will because their offense is a machine.
I think playing at home and with the pressure of two-straight postseason losses weighing on Brady and Belichick, the Patriots will respond with a great game. I think Brady might be in for a historically good performance, though to Denver’s credit, their defense has done a very good job of harassing opposing quarterbacks.
New England has to feel great having Brady against the remaining AFC field of passers: Tebow, TJ Yates, and Joe Flacco.
I’d like to pick the upset here because I need to catch Eric, but that would be a throwaway pick in my opinion.
Prediction: Patriots 34 – Broncos 26
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Stealing the thought from my compatriot Eric, I don’t think there is that wide of a gap between TJ Yates and Joe Flacco. I’d rather have Flacco going into this game, but I think Yates can be adequate with a really good rushing attack surrounding him and an increasingly healthy Andre Johnson.
I also think the front seven of the Texans which includes studs like JJ Watt, Connor Barwin, and Brian Cushing might be a younger and nearly as good version of the Ravens’ front seven. All that is a way of saying I think this game will be close, but ultimately I have to ride with the Ravens, who are 8-0 at home this year.
Both New England and Baltimore can smell a path to the Super Bowl and could not have asked for better draws in the divisional round.
The Texans have been great running the ball all year, but the Ravens stop the run as well as just about anyone thanks to Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and Terrell Suggs, who is underrated as a run-stopper. I think ultimately too much pressure will be put on TJ Yates to make plays and manufacture points, and while I really like the Texans personnel, I’m not sure Yates is equipped to handle a tenacious Baltimore team on the road.
I don’t love Flacco, but he’s been in big time games before. I think it’s a close defensive struggle, but Baltimore will stack the box and keep Ed Reed focused over the top on Andre Johnson to prevent any big plays down the field. I look for Suggs to have a couple of sacks, perhaps force a fumble, and for Reed to bait young Yates into an interception as well. Winning the turnover battle will allow Baltimore to play their bruising style of football, and let the offense rest on the broad shoulders of Vonta Leach and Ray Rice.
I like the Texans, and if Matt Schaub were in this game I would pick them, but ultimately I’m going with the more seasoned team at home.
Prediction: Baltimore 20 – Texans 13
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
I really don’t like this matchup for the Packers. They can’t run the ball, and their pass defense is statistically the worst in the NFL. That’s not good when the Giants come to town and their primary strengths are rushing the passer and Eli Manning hitting receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.
The Giants know the Packers are going to throw all day long, and they can bully the Packers’ offensive line with just four pass rushers. Marshall Newhouse, Evan Dietrich-Smith, and TJ Lang are going to be overmatched on Sunday, and while Josh Sitton and Scott Wells are very good offensive linemen, that’s just two of five adequate starters.
Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora are all healthy and firing on all cylinders. When the Giants rush those four and drop seven defenders into coverage, I’m not sure how the Packers block that front, or at least give Aaron Rodgers enough time to find receivers that will be covered down the field.
Considering the Packers’ inability to run the ball, the Giants will pin their ears back and ramp up the pass rush even more. In addition, the Packers were near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed (41 on the year).
Defensively the Packers have the personnel and talent (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, BJ Raji) to make a lot of plays, but the defense has been anything but solid this year and has missed many tackles, especially concerning with the run after catch ability of both Cruz and Nicks.
The Packers have been the best team all season long, but sometimes a team gets hot in the playoffs, and I just think it’s the Giants’ time. In New York’s last three games they’ve outscored the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons a combined 84-30. Aaron Rodgers has covered up a lot of weaknesses for Green Bay this year, but Manning can match Rodgers close enough to expose those weaknesses.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Oh my what a matchup! These teams are a combined 27-6 on the year, and the Saints boast perhaps the league’s most powerful offense, while the 49ers likely have the best defense in the game.
The 49ers want to control the ball and keep Drew Brees off the field as much as possible, while the Saints want to push tempo, spread the field, but also feature a strong, three-headed rushing attack.
When the Saints have the ball, I figure the 49ers to work from the ground up, meaning stop the run first to limit Brees’ effectiveness in the play-action game. Even though the Saints run the ball well, the 49ers are virtually impossible to run against, limiting opponents to a league-best 77 yards-per-game. I think the Saints may have a bit more success than that because the threat Brees presents will take some of the 49ers focus off the ground game, and also because the Saints can mash at the line of scrimmage behind Pro Bowl linemen Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, and Jermon Bushrod. Still, on the whole I expect the 49ers to hold New Orleans to around 100 yards, and perhaps less on the ground.
The real issue comes when the Saints spread the defense out. While the Niners are good against the pass, and particularly stingy in terms of giving up points, they can be susceptible to giving up long passing plays.
I expect pro bowl corner Carlos Rogers to lock up with the Saints’ #1 receiver, Marques Colston. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem will likely be handled by Tarrell Brown and rookie Corner Chris Culliver, respectively, though I expect safeties Donte Whitner and the Pro Bowler Dashon Goldson and to provide a lot of help on the back end. The 49ers must make the Saints earn every yard and really limit explosive plays.
Jimmy Graham, the Saints all-world tight end, and Darren Sproles, the do-everything New Orleans back, are probably the toughest matchups. Graham is so hard to defend because of his 6’7” frame, athleticism, and wonderful hands. Sproles is just the opposite: diminutive at 5’6”, but lightning quick and incredibly elusive. Fortunately for San Francisco, two of the three All-Pro inside linebackers elected by the Associated Press this year belong to the 49ers in Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman. I would expect Bowman to key on Sproles and Willis and a safety focus on Graham.
The 49ers excel at getting to the quarterback with just four rushers, but the Saints are the best offensive line they’ve faced all year. The one weak spot is right tackle Zack Strief, and I expect super rookie Aldon Smith to be lined up over Strief all day long. The Saints will likely help Strief quite a bit, but that means a tight end or back (Sproles or Graham) will have to delay their release to get a chip on Smith. It also means that All-Pro defensive end Justin Smith should see a fair share of single blockers to dominate.
When the 49ers have the ball, they are going to test their 8th-ranked rushing attack against a solid rushing defense; the Saints rank twelfth in rushing yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, the 49ers 29th-ranked passing attack will be evenly matched with the Saints 30th-ranked secondary.
I expect the Niners to be able to possess the ball, ride Frank Gore, and work Vernon Davis overtime. While Jimmy Graham may be the better player, Davis certainly isn’t facing an all-pro group of linebackers, and should have the matchup advantage.
The Saints are going to blitz constantly, which means Smith has to get rid of the ball quickly, and short routes to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis could lead to long runs through a suspect New Orleans secondary.
Essentially, I see the 49ers offense as a pretty even match with the Saints defense, and the Saints great offense will be facing perhaps an equally great defense in San Fran. The difference then will be special teams, coaching, and the turnover battle. In terms of special teams, the 49ers boast the best punter and maybe the best kicker in the league. Statistically San Francisco averaged the best starting field position of any team, and conversely pinned opponents with the worst starting field position on average. In other words, the Niners are the best special teams unit in football.
Quickly, another element is that the 49ers have had two weeks to rest and prepare for New Orleans, while the Saints played a physical Lions team last week and now must travel across the country.
In outdoor road games this year the Saints averaged 26 points per game. In home games, the 49ers scored 28. Additionally, the 49ers allow just 11 points per game at home on the season.
Finally, the 49ers led the league with a +28 turnover ratio, while the Saints where -3 on the year.
At home, with superior special teams, a defense than can match up with a great Saints offense, a tremendous coaching staff with an extra week to prepare, and an offense that scores more than people think, I like my 49ers to ride on through to the Conference title game.
Prediction: 49ers 30 – Saints 24
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