With a heavy heart this 49er fan must prognosticate the outcome of the Super Bowl thinking of what could have been. But the Giants and Patriots earned their way to the big game, and to the victors go the nauseating amount of attention.
Speaking of nauseating, is it just me, or is the idea that the Giants are the “red-hot” team kind of a misnomer? The Patriots have won ten consecutive games and are 15-3. The Giants have won five-straight and are 11-7. I think people simply can’t resist comparing this matchup and this Giants team to the one that beat up Tom Brady in the 2008 Super Bowl. That’s a mistake.
New England is a completely different team from the one that nearly captured perfection. They don’t have Randy Moss, and their offense is not at all structured around the vertical passing game. The Giants' strength, their pass rush, is most effective when teams want to go deep down the field and the quarterback has to hold the ball longer.
I think in this game you will (1) See the Pats make a concerted effort to run the ball, and (2) Use jumbo and max protect packages even when throwing the ball.
Rob Gronkowski is not going to be 100%, yet I would imagine he’ll be ready to make some plays in the first half, and then his ankle will stiffen over the elongated Super Bowl half-time. I expect New England to feed Gronk when he’s feeling good, and then switch over to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch later on.
New England has a solid offensive line, and with maximum protection and Brady dialed in, I think they carve up the Giants' suspect linebacking and secondary groups. Everyone seems to think that the Patriots can’t win unless Gronkowski has 9 catches for 150 yards and 2 scores, but they have plenty of other options.
Wes Welker had 122 catches, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Hernandez had 79 grabs for over 900 yards and 7 scores. Meanwhile, Deion Branch chipped in 51 receptions for 700 yards and 5 end zone trips. Gronkowski is important, but he is not the end-all be-all for New England.
When New York has the ball the temptation is to think Eli Manning will go up and down the field on what has statistically been an awful Patriots defense. Manning will no doubt get his yards and make his share of plays, but New England’s defense is as healthy as it’s been all year. Patrick Chung is back in the mix at safety, as is play-making linebacker Brandon Spikes. I think New England will load up to stop the run in an effort to make Manning beat them. As good as Manning has been, I think New England will take their chances in a shootout between he and Brady.
Vince Wilfork is unblockable right now. He should have a huge impact against the run and even collapse the pocket around Manning. Under pressure, Manning has a tendency for making bad decisions. He will give the defense a chance to take the ball away, and I expect New England to capitalize.
Finally, I think Brady with his mastery of the short passing game can win the time of possession battle and wear down the New York pass rush, thus neutralizing the Giants' greatest strength and keeping Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham on the bench.
The Giants are a good football team, but they lost seven games this year for a reason; they are inconsistent. I think the bye week slows their momentum, and I also think Brady and Bill Belichick just aren’t going to lose another Super Bowl to the same team. Gimme the Pats, and screw the damn Giants.
Prediction: New England 34 – New York 27
--from @AdamHocking
| Matchup | Adam's Pick | Eric's Pick |
|---|---|---|
Giants vs. Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
Adam | Eric | |
Conference Championship Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
Conference Championship Points | -8 | 8 |
Total Points | 156 | 190 |
Playoff Record | 5-5 | 5-5 |
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs) | 163-103 | 185-81 |
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