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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

October 9, 2011

Week 5 Pick-Down

MatchupAdam's Pick Eric's Pick
Eagles at Bills
Eagles
Bills
Saints at Panthers
Panthers
Saints
Chiefs at Colts
Chiefs
Colts
Raiders at Texans
Texans
Texans
Cardinals at Vikings
Vikings
Vikings
Bengals at Jaguars
Bengals
Bengals
Seahawks at Giants
Giants
Giants
Titans at Steelers
Steelers
Titans
Buccaneers at 49ers
49ers
49ers
Chargers at Broncos
Chargers
Chargers
Jets at Patriots
Patriots
Patriots
Packers at Falcons
Packers
Packers
Bears at Lions
Lions
Lions




Adam
Eric
Week 4 Record
11-5
11-5
Season Standings
44-20
42-22

Bye Weeks: Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Ravens, Redskins

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks


The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
At what point do you abandon your pre-conceived notions of what a team would be heading into the season? When do you start basing your analysis on what has actually transpired thus far on the field? Prior to Week 1 the Eagles were Super Bowl contenders and the Bills looked like another sub-.500 club. Now the Bills are 3-1 and the Eagles 1-3. Still, whose roster would you rather have? I say the clear answer is Philly's, but talent does not always equal success in the NFL, a league where chemistry is just as important as skill. In terms of how these squads matchup, both defenses have struggled. Philadelphia is terrible stopping the run, and Fred Jackson and the Bills excel at pounding the ball, but the Bills defense hasn't shown itself to be formidable against either the run or pass. The Bills are good enough to compete with anybody in the league, but ultimately I just can't see the Eagles dropping to 1-4, not with all their talent, a good head coach, and a quarterback who should be on the mend. I think we are in for a lot of points. Look for Andy Reid to find a way to protect Vick and for the ultra fast Eagles offense to outscore a pretty darn good Bills attack in a shootout.

Prediction: Eagles 34 – Bills 27

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Matt Cassel is not a great player. Right alongside Kyle Orton, Cassel exemplifies my definition of “average” in terms of talent and effectiveness for a game-managing quarterback. Not having Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki are killers for the Chiefs, but they still have Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and a quarterback that's better than either Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins. I look for this to be an ugly game that the Chiefs find a way to win. Wow, what a difference Peyton Manning's absence has made.

Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Colts 16

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
I really think Minnesota is better than their 0-4 record indicates. I'm not saying they’re a good team, but I see them finishing the year with around 6 or 7 wins. That's also how I look at the Cardinals. Kevin Kolb-to-Larry Fitzgerald should be very effective against a terrible Minnesota secondary, but I think Adrian Peterson should be equally effective against a so-so Cardinals defense. Playing at home, I just can't see a team with players like Peterson, Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and Percy Harvin falling to 0-5, so I'll ride with the Vikings.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Cardinals 20

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Tarvaris Jackson is flatout bad, and two rookies and a second-year player man his offensive line: bad news with the streaking Giants’ furious defensive front coming to town. Eli Manning has been stellar in his last few games, and even if he's just average in this contest, that should be more than enough to outscore the hapless Seahawks, a team they beat by 34 points a year ago.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Seahawks 6

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
A lot of folks are drinking the Titans Kool-Aid, but I just can't get on board yet. Maybe I'll regret it later, but I think Matt Hasselbeck will come back to earth, the defense will fall to the middle of the pack, and the absence of Kenny Britt will be sorely felt. The Steelers badly need to rebound and get back on the winning track before Baltimore starts to run away with the division. The Titans have a tremendous offensive line that should be a good match for Blitzburgh, but in the end I'll take Ben Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace to put up enough points for the Steelers’ defense to seal the deal.

Prediction: Steelers 17 – Titans 13

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Maybe I'm just infatuated with Cam Newton's great play early in the season, but I do think he has energized this Panthers team. NFC South games are always wild and close, and I think the Saints might be just a bit overrated. I'll go with a surprise pick here and take the feisty, young Panthers to win.

Prediction: Panthers 34 – Saints 31

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Normally in a battle of two middling teams you would take the home squad by default, but Andy Dalton is much more ready for primetime than is his rookie counterpart Blaine Gabbert. Plus, the Bengals’ defense is fast, physical, and legit. I'll take Dalton, AJ Green, and Cedric Benson to put up enough points for the victory.

Prediction: Bengals 20 – Jaguars 10

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
There is no longer such a thing as a trap game for the Texans. They've had too many letdown games in their history not to take every single week seriously. Yes they just beat perennial power Pittsburgh, but they should know by putting on the film that Oakland is a solid football team. In the end, I trust the Texans to score enough points that Oakland can’t keep up. In addition, the Texans’ defense is turning the page this year with the addition of tenacious rookie JJ Watt to the front seven.

Prediction: Texans 28 – Raiders 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
Shocker: I love Jim Harbaugh. He has this 49er squad believing in themselves and has Alex Smith playing very efficient football. Frank Gore finally busted out last week, Kendall Hunter has shown loads of potential when he touches the ball, Michael Crabtree appears to be at full health, Vernon Davis is a stud, and the offensive line will finally face an equally unproven opponent with the very green Buccaneer defensive line coming to town. The Bucs’ main threat is on the ground with LeGarrette Blount, yet the Niners excel at defending the run so he should be limited. San Fran should open up the offense a bit in this game, and they will frustrate Josh Freeman’s crew with their attacking 3-4 defense. I also look for Ted Ginn to make a big play in special teams as the Niners return home after a very successful road trip.

Prediction: 49ers 21 – Buccaneers 16

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Even if Philip Rivers hasn't been putting up the video game numbers were used to, he's still led San Diego to three early season wins. I'll take wins over numbers every day of the week, and I'm sure Rivers will too. San Diego is finding ways to win until their whole offense gets on track, and they might find that rhythm this week, though the Broncos do have a sensational young pass rusher in Von Miller. The Chargers’ overall talent advantage, especially Rivers-over-Kyle Orton, will be enough to carry the day.

Prediction: Chargers 28 – Broncos 20

New York Jets at New England Patriots
The Pats will be looking for revenge after last year's playoff defeat at the hands of the bitter rival Jets, and I think they'll get it. Yes, New England's defense has been horrible, but their offense has been absolutely prolific, and I see no way that Gang Green will be able to keep pace on the scoreboard with the Brady Bunch.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Jets 20

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
This would certainly be a great game to help get Atlanta back on the right track and rolling, but they have shown tremendous inconsistency this year in their offensive line, quarterback play, and overall defense. It took everything Atlanta had to eke out a win against a bad Seahawks team last week, and even though revenge will be on the mind of the Falcons, I just don't think they have the personnel to protect Matt Ryan or slow down the Aaron Rodgers express.

Prediction: Packers 38 – Falcons 24

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
A huge game for long despairing Lions fans, I believe they'll get their desired result. On Monday Night with everyone watching and a chance to move to 5-0 at home, I just have a feeling Detroit will come out firing. The Bears’ awful offensive line will get chewed up by Ndamukong Suh and company in top pick Nick Fairley’s long-awaited debut, and the Bears’ secondary—or anybody really—just has no match for Calvin Johnson, the most difficult player to matchup in the league. The Lions have to know that a 5-0 start nearly ensures a playoff appearance, and their fans know it too. Ford Field will be rocking; so will the Lions.

Prediction: Lions 34 – Bears 23

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