NFL Power Poll #3

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)

They struggled against a bad Vikings team, but on the road against a divisional opponent, a close game isn’t really the worst thing in the world.  It’s a wakeup call without taking a loss.  The defense has some issues to work out, but they have the personnel to matchup with anyone, and Dom Capers will get that sorted out before the playoffs.

So long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, this team should be favored in every single game they play.  For some perspective, in the year that the Patriots went undefeated and Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns, his passer rating was 117.  In Peyton Manning’s best statistical year, his rating was 121.  This year Rodgers’ rating is 125.7, comfortably ahead of either Manning or Brady’s best all-time level.  If he continues this type of play, we are looking at possibly the best season ever. 

2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1)

A perfect bye week for the Niners.  They get to rest, will hopefully get Braylon Edwards back to an offense that is starting to find it’s rhythm, and everyone in the NFC West lost.  The Rams sit at 0-6, the Cardinals at 1-5, and the Seahawks at 2-4.  With the way those teams are playing, Seattle is probably the only team that has a chance to even surpass five wins on the entire season, which makes San Fran the more likely to win its division than any other team.

The 49ers get Cleveland at home, then head to Washington to play a banged up and offensively inept Redskins team.  If they get to 7-1, they set themselves up for a first-round bye. 

3. New England Patriots (5-1)

The next few weeks will tell us a ton about the Patriots and also may allow the Jets and Bills to make this one hell of a race in the AFC East.  I still love New England’s offense; they’re just a point-scoring factory, but the defense is a real issue.  With games against the Steelers next week, then the Giants, Jets, and Eagles all upcoming, we should really see how good this team is and if they have the ingredients for another Super Bowl run. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

I begrudgingly put the Steelers here because they’ve won three-straight games, and Ben Roethlisberger is playing at a really high level.  This spot came down to Pittsburgh and the Saints, but I say the Steelers are a more balanced team between offense and defense, so I’ll give them the nod over New Orleans.

5. New Orleans Saints (5-2)

I don’t think destroying the Colts tells us a whole lot about the Saints that we didn’t already know.  They are great on offense, and their defense thrives when they have a sizeable lead and can attack.  Drew Brees is having his typical great year but is still throwing a few too many interceptions.  This is a team that can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime, but I’m not in love with their defense. 

6. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)

This is where things really get sticky.  A host of 4-2 and 4-3 teams really haven’t separated themselves at all.

With two-straight wins, including a road victory at Detroit, I’ll give the six spot to Atlanta more because of their ceiling than how good I really think they are at this moment.  Talent-wise they can stay on the field with anyone, but Matt Ryan has to do better than his current 9-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

7. New York Giants (4-2)

For right now we are looking at the best team in the NFC East, but they haven’t gotten their running game going, and the upcoming schedule is unbelievably brutal.  After the bye week they get a cupcake at home against the Dolphins but then travel to San Francisco, to New England, host the Eagles, go to New Orleans, host the Packers, then go to Dallas.  They might be favored in just one or two of those games and could potentially lose all of them.

8. Buffalo Bills (4-2)

A bye week was great as this team must get focused for the meat of their schedule coming up.  They have an excellent chance to put themselves in good divisional position hosting the Redskins this Sunday and welcoming the Jets the following week.  They also have the Broncos and Miami twice still on their schedule.  This team has a legitimate shot to make the playoffs.

9. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

If they had done what I thought they were going to do, crush the Jaguars, they’d probably be second in my rankings.  But the NFL is a pendulum league, and this week it swung the opposing way for the once hot Ravens.

Losing a really ugly game against Jacksonville in prime time raised a lot of questions about their preparation and if Joe Flacco can really make this team a title contender.  Flacco has to complete more than 52% of his passes.   I really think he has the ability but must be more decisive and intelligent with his throws.

10. Chicago Bears (4-3)

I don’t like it, but if Chicago continues to realize that Matt Forte is pretty damn good, this is a dangerous team.  Ideally they need to limit Jay Cutler to twenty-five throws per game and work a ton out of play-action to both minimize his turnovers and his exposure to hits, though I’m not sure Mike Martz would ever be so logical.

11. Detroit Lions (5-2)

More than losing two-straight, what concerns me is the general trend going on with this team.  They are so reliant on the big play to Calvin Johnson and don’t have really anything resembling a feature back in the running game.  Also, surprisingly, considering their deep and talented defensive line rotation, they rank twenty-eighth in stopping the run.  This is a really dangerous and talented team, but they have some obvious holes that we glossed over in the hysteria of their 5-0 start.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)

I think they’re probably too young on offense to sustain their winning ways all season, but their defense is for real.  This fast, bruising, and talented defense will keep this team in a lot of games.

--from @AdamHocking