Houston Texans
Over the last few seasons, the Houston Texans have had a 12-4 offense and a 4-12 defense, and they always finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race. Such offensive potential always had sports fans and pundits salivating and saying, “This is finally the year Houston overtakes Indy for the AFC South title.” Yet the Texans’ defensive shortcomings always proved otherwise. So when I predict the Texans take the division this season, I do so with the expectation that Houston’s new-look defense will be much better than its 2010 version.
Starting with the knowns on offense, Matt Schaub is a Pro Bowl passer that always puts up huge numbers and commands the offense very well. Arian Foster is just 24 and is coming off a league rushing title, though losing lead blocker Vonta Leach will hurt. Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the league.
Owen Daniels has made a Pro Bowl at tight end and appears to be healthy so far, but the injury bug has bitten him the past two seasons. If he stays on the field, Daniels’ contributions make this offense take the step from good to great.
While the offensive line lacks big names, their production is undeniable, last year paving the way for the league’s leading rusher and allowing Schaub the time to amass well over 4,000 yards through the air.
Houston desperately needed to improve its defense, and it did just that this offseason. Under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Texans first added number one pick JJ Watt, who brings great versatility and playmaking ability to the front line. Second-round pick Brooks Reed adds even more speed to the already stocked pass rushing cabinet of the Texans. Mario Williams will be asked to move to 3-4 outside linebacker and essentially play the Demarcus Ware role Phillips established in Dallas, a glorified pass rusher. Plenty athletic to play standing up, Super Mario could be even more effective than he was in the 4-3.
If the Texans can solidify the nose tackle position, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing round out what could be a fantastic front seven.
The Houston secondary was historically bad last year, and if it could improve to simply a little below average unit this season, it could make all the difference. Considering the improvements to the pass rush and front seven, there will be less of a burden on the back four. Adding star cornerback Jonathan Joseph was a huge coup for Houston, and a smarter move than spending twice as much on the other big free agent corner, Nnamdi Asoumgha, a player three years older than Joseph. Brandon Harris was also drafted to help at the corner spot, and Kareem Jackson is looking to rebound after an abysmal rookie season last year despite being the twentieth overall selection.
Biggest Strengths: Elite offensive firepower in Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson.
Biggest Weaknesses: An unproven secondary.
Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC South
Eric’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Some see last year’s drop from the true NFL elite as a mere aberration that will be forgotten this year as the Indianapolis Colts rise back to the top of the standings. I tend to see it more as a sign of things to come, though Indy will still be a very good team this year. Quite simply, the Colts are getting older. Peyton Manning is having some minor bumps and bruises, and the wear and tear of thirteen NFL seasons has to be getting to him on some level.
Still, Manning’s as good as it gets at his position, and with toys like Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie to play with, the offense should remain one of the league’s best.
The offensive line needed to get better than they were in 2010, and the Colts addressed that major need with two of their top picks in the draft, tackle Anthony Costanzo and guard Ben Ijalana. Costanzo should come in and be solid right away and add some physicality to a typically finesse Colts line. Jeff Saturday is a stalwart at center, but he’s 36. The guards are average. Ryan Diem is still a solid tackle and could form a sound pair of bookends with Costanzo, but this unit better gel fast if the Colts hope to protect their lotto ticket, #18.
Defensively, the Colts are still all about speed but yet again seem to be chronically undersized.
Dwight Freeney is still a superstar when healthy, and Robert Mathis has quietly averaged 10 sacks per year over the last seven years. Jerry Hughes, the second-year man from TCU, should ingratiate himself more into the pass rush this season as well.
Coming from Chicago, defensive tackle Tommie Harris brings immense talent, but his health is always in question. He’s great at shooting the gap and providing penetration but he gets banged up way to much. Defensive tackles Fili Moala and rookie Drake Nevis need to contribute as big bodies in the middle to help the Colts’ run defense improve, an area where they have historically been soft.
Gary Brackett is an incredibly smart linebacker, but his age and physical limitations are catching up with him. Compiling 88 tackles as a rookie, former Hawkeye Pat Angerer showed promise last year, and new addition Ernie Sims can help if he’s healthy.
Jeraud Powers is a nice young corner, and the safety tandem of Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea is one of the better duos in the league.
For Indianapolis, the best defense is a good offense, and it all starts with Manning. If the Colts can get a lead then they can unleash their pass rushers, but in close games teams will be able to pound the ball with the running game, keeping Manning and his offense off the field.
Biggest Strengths: Peyton Manning.
Biggest Weaknesses: The run defense is a huge question mark.
Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC South
Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC South
Tennessee Titans
Raise your hand if you have no idea what to make of the Tennessee Titans. Raise your hand if you have no idea if Matt Hasselbeck is the guy who went crazy against the Saints in last year’s Wild Card game or the guy who tossed 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions during the regular season. This is a hard team to figure, but if they get Chris Johnson signed, which I expect they will, they could be dangerous for anybody.
Hasselbeck played on a talent-depleted team last year in Seattle, and had nowhere near the running game he will have in Tennessee this year, so we may see an improvement out of him. But if things go south for the Titans, do expect to see rookie Jake Locker.
Hasselbeck thrives off of play-action, which should be a real threat considering Johnson and Tennessee’s running prowess. The Titans’ offensive line is one of the best groups in the league, and fullback Amhard Hall is a strong lead blocker.
An emerging star at receiver, Kenny Britt should be Hasselbeck’s go-to guy, and Nate Washington is a good vertical threat on the other side. Beyond Britt and Washington the receiving corps is pretty thin.
The Titans need last year’s top pick, Derrick Morgan, to bounce back from an injury-ruined rookie campaign and become the pass rusher they expected. Jason Jones is an undersized yet underrated player at defensive tackle, and the Shaun Smith adds size, if not much, else next to him.
Tackling machine Barrett Rudd was added via free agency, an excellent pick up after the departure of last year’s leading tackler Stephen Tulloch. Second-round linebacker Akeem Ayers needs to join Morgan in pressuring quarterbacks.
The strength of the defense still lies in the secondary where Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope, and Michael Griffin are all very good players.
Biggest Strengths: Running game.
Biggest Weaknesses: Uncertainty in the defensive front seven.
Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Third in AFC South
Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
Contrary to popular belief, there is still an NFL franchise in Jacksonville.
David Garrard had excellent numbers last year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he never felt like a guy who could go out and win a game by putting his team on his shoulders. Even posting a 91 passer rating, Garrard still felt like a game manager.
Maurice Jones-Drew is a superstar back that can do everything, and he’ll need to if Jacksonville wants to score some points.
Beyond Mike Thomas, who is just famous for catching last year’s Hail Mary, the Jaguars have zero wide receivers with any real ability. Marcedes Lewis really broke out last season and will likely be the top target this year, but whenever the tight end can be double-covered without much concern for other receivers, you have a problem.
After investing a lot of high picks in the offensive line the past few years, that group now looks ready to come together.
The Jags offense seems to be getting everything in place for Blaine Gabbert to take over in a year or two: promising offensive linemen, stud running back, talented tight end, and now they just need to add some receivers. That made the fact that they let Mike Sims-Walker leave for St. Louis a little puzzling as he was by far their most dangerous wideout.
Though Jacksonville majorly reached for Tyson Alualu in the draft last year, Alualu played excellently as a rookie and forms one of the better tackle tandems in the league alongside fellow youngster Terrance Knighton. Paul Posluszny was a great signing that should make the Jags very tough up the middle. Knighton and Alualu will penetrate and occupy blocks while Posluszny gobbles up tackles.
Rashean Mathis is now 30 but is still a good corner in this league. The problem is, outside of Mathis, Knighton, Alualu, and Posluszny, there isn’t a ton of talent on the defense, and the offense is certainly not going to be expolsive.
Biggest Strengths: Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny make for an exciting core of the defense.
Biggest Weaknesses: Seriously, google their group of receivers.
Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC South
Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC South
--from @AdamHocking
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