Atlanta Falcons
Since the latest division realignment, no team has ever repeated as NFC South Champion. Yet despite that fact, both Adam and I predict the unprecedented. We both call for the Atlanta Falcons to repeat and claim a hotly contested NFC South crown.
After finishing an NFC-best 13-3 in 2010, the Falcons did not want to mess with formula too much this offseason. Atlanta made some headlining moves but not sweeping changes like the formerly 11-5 Eagles. Chief among them was trading away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to move up in the draft and select Julio Jones. Though the Falcons are a talented offensive team, they lack big play threats and gain their yards methodically. Tales out of camp proclaim Jones as the real deal, perhaps just the player Atlanta needs to put them over the top.
Jones becomes a member football’s most balanced offense. Last year the Falcons’ leading rusher, Michael Turner, ran for 1371 yards while the leading receiver, Roddy White, accumulated 1389. The judicious Matt Ryan comes off his best year as a pro and looks to make up for an early playoff exit.
Ryan and his offensive mates were let down last year by an overmatched secondary versus the Packers. The Falcons did not sign anyone directly to the secondary this offseason, but they did acquire one of the most talented pass rushers available, Ray Edwards. On the other side of John Abraham, Edwards should continue to be blocked by just one man like he grew accustomed to in Minnesota, playing with Jared Allen and the Williams boys. Improving the pass rush and pressuring quarterbacks should at least partially ease the burden on the secondary.
Biggest Strengths: The Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White being joined by Julio Jones.
Biggest Weaknesses: Secondary. If getting torched by Aaron Rodgers for 366 yards and three touchdowns with an 86.1 completion percentage on your home turf isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is. You can bet the Saints watched that tape.
Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in NFC South
Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Though their regular season was no disappointment, the defending Super Bowl Champion losing a playoff game to a 7-9 team is an absolute embarrassment. The New Orleans Saints must rebound with a vengeance to put that loss behind them.
I expect nothing less out of the incomparable Drew Brees. In the perfect match of scheme to players, no one could better execute Sean Payton’s offense and spread the ball around than Brees. Brees makes it look easy, throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and the young, athletic tight end Jimmy Graham.
With Brees getting all the pub, an extremely underrated piece to the Saints’ 2010 Championship puzzle was their running game. Last season injuries decimated New Orleans’ running backs, but this year they’ve retooled and are ready to run. After already making one selection in the first round, New Orleans traded up to make a second first-round pick, with which they took Alabama running back Mark Ingram. His physicality will be a welcome change of pace from the quick Pierre Thomas. Also in the backfield, New Orleans traded away Reggie Bush this offseason but replaced with him with the same type of player, signing free agent Darren Sproles.
To better combat the bruising Falcons, the Saints made themselves much tougher up front by bringing in two monster defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. Beastly Sedrick Ellis joins those two to form the best defensive tackle rotation in the NFL. Life should be easier on the edge for the veterans Will Smith and Alex Brown and the Saints’ first first-round pick, rookie Cameron Jordan.
This season Jonathan Vilma should rack up well over 100 tackles since (A) Ellis, Franklin, and Rogers will adeptly occupy blockers in front of him, and (B) the Saints don’t have any other surefire tacklers in the linebacking corps.
My pick for the Saints’ top defensive player, Malcolm Jenkins—who did not play in the playoff loss to the Seahawks—and Tracy Porter make up one half of a very good secondary. Between last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, and a few other veterans, the Saints should be able to field a solid second half.
Biggest Strengths: Drew Brees and his toys.
Biggest Weaknesses: Other than Jonathan Vilma, the linebackers don’t blow you away.
Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC South
Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A year ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a team that beat everyone on their schedule they should have beaten but no one perhaps they shouldn’t have. It’ll take winning a few of those games in the latter category if they want to take the NFC South Title. (Their only win against an above-.500 team last year came Week 17 against the Saints, who rested many of their starters.)
The future is bright in Tampa though. The Buccaneers are a very young team with a rising star quarterback, Josh Freeman. In just his second year in the league, Freeman posted a 96 passer rating, throwing 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. He was also the second-leading rusher among NFL quarterbacks with 364 yards on the ground. At 6’6”, 250 pounds and with top-5 arm strength, the kid is already awesome and has unlimited potential to boot. Based on Freeman’s smarts, work ethic, and the situation he currently finds himself in, it’s no stretch to believe Freeman completely fulfills his potential this season.
As for weapons at Freeman’s disposal, Mike Williams had a great rookie season last year, and another 2010 rookie, Arrelious Benn, continues to ascend on the opposite side. Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock solidly round out the receiving corps. Over the middle, the Bucs have one of the league’s top tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr., who despite a reputation for being injury-prone, has played in all sixteen games both of his seasons as a Buccaneer.
Davin Joseph, Jeff Faine, and Donald Penn constitute a sound unit along the offensive line. They protected well and provided ample running room last year for rookie LeGarrette Blount. If Blount can repeat his success, the Tampa Bay offense can be very good.
In each of the past two years, Tampa Bay spent their first two draft picks on defensive linemen. Last year they acquired Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and this year nabbed Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. McCoy and Price certainly did not set the world on fire in 2010, so let’s hope those two can progress and the Bucs do a little better with their choices of Clayborn and Bowers this season.
Behind that line of high draft picks though, there’s not much discernable talent on defense. The team’s leading tackler, Barrett Ruud, departed via free agency; cornerback Ronde Barber is 300 years old; and on the other side of Barber is the talented but complete head case Aqib Talib.
Biggest Strengths: Raheem Morris rallying this young team around Josh Freeman.
Biggest Weaknesses: Inexperience across the board and an overall lack of defensive talent.
Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Third in NFC South
Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Third in NFC South
Carolina Panthers
Lights. CAM-era. Action. (Adam said I had to write that.)
By drafting Cam Newton with the first overall pick, the Carolina Panthers certainly look like they are Newton’s team. Newton has played well enough in the preseason for that to be the case as well. What the future holds for Jimmy Clausen, Hill 364’s top quarterback prospect from a year ago, remains to be seen.
The Panthers will surround their rookie signal caller with a modest amount of established players. One cannot argue with the smash and dash of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. It is up to the Panthers to utilize both runners to the best of their abilities. Carolina is still searching for the heir apparent to Steve Smith, but for now, Steve Smith will have to do. Athletic tight end Greg Olsen did not fit in Mike Martz’s offense, so Chicago traded him to Carolina, where he will be a valued safety net for a rookie quarterback learning the NFL ropes.
Defensively, Charles Johnson parlayed an 11.5-sack season out from underneath Julius Peppers’ shadow into a big payday. We’ll see if he produces at the same clip now that he flies a little less under the radar and teams prepare for him. I happen to think Jon Beason is a bit overrated as he’s by far the best player on a bad defense, but I will admit that on the Panthers he’s a tackling machine that lays the wood.
Biggest Strengths: Carolina’s offensive line featuring Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah is one of the best in football, and they love blowing open holes for the talented DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Biggest Weaknesses: A recognizable defense, they don’t have it. If the rookie Cam Newton doesn’t start, their other two options are Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson, and neither of those guys instill any confidence whatsoever.
Eric’s Prediction: 1-15, Fourth in NFC South
Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC South
--from @jeuneski
Yeah Matty Ice!
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