Recent events and trends in the NBA world may have led you to believe that the league consists of approximately eight teams: The Heat, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, Knicks, Bulls, and Thunder. Alas, these teams merely compose the league’s upper class. And much like the nation’s recession, many of the NBA’s middle and lower class teams have been struggling through mediocrity for years now. For one particularly woe begotten team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who haven’t won more than 33 games in any of the past six years, losing 60+ games three times in that span, I would like to suggest a path out of the darkness.
GM David Kahn may have finally lured Ricky Rubio state-side, and though the Spaniard is allegedly a wizard with the basketball, he may not be the magical anecdote for fixing the Wolves. Here is what Minnesota needs to do to improve their roster: fire sale.
GM David Kahn may have finally lured Ricky Rubio state-side, and though the Spaniard is allegedly a wizard with the basketball, he may not be the magical anecdote for fixing the Wolves. Here is what Minnesota needs to do to improve their roster: fire sale.
With the exception of Kevin Love and Wesley Johnson, I would put every single player on this roster on the trading block. Love gave the Wolves 20 points and 15 boards per game last year; he has to stay. Johnson is an elite athlete with offensive upside and the ability to defend the opponents’ best perimeter scorer.
Johnny Flynn had a promising rookie year averaging 14 points and 4 assists per game in 2009-2010, but he seemed to fall off the radar completely this year. Moving him while he still has value would be ideal, but may be easier said than done.
For someone to bring in, the Wolves must target Golden State guard Monta Ellis. The Warriors are clearly looking to move Ellis, but they wouldn’t want Flynn. They would like to get bigger at the guard spots and run with a more physical two guard next to the slight Stephen Curry. Minnesota could offer their second overall pick in this year’s draft along with Michael Beasley in exchange for Ellis. That might seem like a lot to give up, but this is considered a historically weak draft, and Beasley is a lazy defender and a guy who seems more interested in his stat-line than winning games, though ultimately a productive player. The Warriors would get a very high pick with which they could draft a bigger shooting guard or a true center to play alongside David Lee, plus Beasley, who has value as a scorer or as a tradable asset. With new coach Mark Jackson, the Warriors will be looking for a new identity, and this trade gives them options, flexibility, and young talent.
Ellis, Johnson, and Love would be a good trio at the 2, 3, and 4 positions and can be built around. Love is a proven All-Star in the post; Ellis gives the Wolves a legitimate top flight scorer, averaging 25 points per game over the last two years; and Johnson could continue to develop as a scorer and defender. At the point position the Wolves could play a bit of the waiting game and see who shines brighter between Rubio and Flynn next year. They may have a star between the two or they may not, but both will benefit from the presence of Ellis.
At center the Timberwolves must get a player that can defend the rim, because for all of Love’s strengths, he lacks the athleticism and length to be an impactful deterrent in the paint. Maybe the Wolves’ young Anthony Randolph could be that guy, but he’s another project player. Packaging Randolph, Flynn, and next year’s first pick for a player like Clippers center Chris Kaman would be a solid move.
The Clippers have been looking to integrate young Deandre Jordan at the center spot, so Kaman may be movable. The deal in question would mean some nice talent—Flynn and Randolph—plus a future pick provide a sound return for the Clippers. Flynn could run the point next to up-and-coming star Eric Gordon, and of course Blake Griffin will continue his ascent into the NBA’s elite. The salaries work in this deal since Randolph and Flynn come on the cheap, and Kaman’s salary is manageable for the Wolves who have cap space aplenty.
Now the Wolves would have Rubio, Ellis, Johnson, Love, and Kaman as their starting five. I admit Rubio is a mystery, but he would be surrounded by good NBA talent, and if he has ability, it will show in this lineup. Ellis is a legitimate top scorer; Love is an All-Star; and the 7-foot, 265-pound Kaman brings the size necessary to complement Love down low.
What the Wolves haven’t had since Kevin Garnett left is proven NBA talent, and this series of moves would give them two young stars to build around—Ellis and Love—along with a player I think will be pretty good in Johnson. Kaman is the perfect, no-frills center that cleans the glass and is a capable scorer.
With this group, instead of trotting out five prospects who may or may not become good players, the Wolves would have a foursome of good NBA players, plus Rubio. Martell Webster is a solid bench player for Minnesota, as is Luke Ridnour, and Minnesota would have money left over to add to their bench.
Hey, what do you know, it looks like we not only fixed the T-Wolves, but we helped out the Warriors and Clippers as well. In each case teams get what they want in these deals. The Wolves get a star and some more established talent to build a competitive team. The Clippers shed a player whose replacement looks ready to step in and surround emerging stars Gordon and Griffin with more young talent and a future pick. The Warriors move the smallish Ellis for the second overall pick this year, and a guy in Beasley who can score 20 per night or be traded again for decent value.
--from @AdamHocking
Hey Hocking, love your stuff man, I check out you're and Jeuner's blog every week. HowEVAH (as Stephen A. would say), I do disagree with a few of the ideas raised in this article, respectfully of course. For starters, the Clippers already own the T-Wolves 1st round pick in the 2012 draft, unprotected, from the Cassell-Jaric trade of 2005 (worst trade ever). So unfortunately we do not have that as a trade chip. And while Kaman is solid, he has had problems staying healthy the last few years and will turn 30 this season. Personally I would like to see the Wolves play Randolph at the other big opposite Love this season and see if playing with Rubio unlocks some of that potential. Also, Ellis is indeed a great scorer, but he is a big-time volume scorer, therefore always needing the ball in his hands. Placing him next to Rubio would be similar to what I hear FC Barcelona was doing by having Ricky play next to Juan Carlos Navarro; that is, dribble across half-court, pass it to the 2-guard, and stand in a corner to clear space. As a Wolves fan that's waited 2 years to see Rubio, I say give him the keys to the offense this year and see what he can do in the more wide-open and more athletic NBA (as compared to Euro-style ball). I personally think/hope that he will excel over here and if nothing else make the team more exciting. If I am the Wolves on Thursday, I keep the #2 pick and draft Williams (assuming Cavs take Irving #1) and let the chips fall in where they may. Creates a log jam at the forward spot but with Klay Thompson and Alec Burks being the highest-rated SG's in the draft, I say go with another year of Wes Johnson splitting time between the 2 and 3 and look to improve that position in the future. In the meantime, surround Rubio with as many athletic shooters as possible (a la Nash's Suns from earlier this decade) and see what he can do (maybe even Burks if we can get him later in the draft). With Love cleaning the glass and outletting the ball to Ricky, try to put up as many points as possible and just outscore teams.
ReplyDeleteSo the starters look like Rubio, Wes Johnson, D. Williams, Love, Randolph. The bench would consist of Beasley as the 6th man and leader/scorer of the second unit; Ridnour at back-up PG, Flynn as depth; Webster and Ellington providing the only depth at a shallow wing spot; and Anthony Tolliver, Darko, and Nicola Pekovic supplying back up minutes at the post positions. Ideally I would look to add a better slashing wing and more (athletic) depth at the center position to put along Love. I would say anybody is movable except Love, Rubio, Williams, Johnson, and Randolph. Get athletic everywhere and let Rubio run the show.
ReplyDeleteThis is Kevin Mayer btw Hocking, I meant to say that in my older post. Hope you're doing well man!
Kevin, thanks for commenting and for reading our blog in general. We love feedback so please continue to comment. That’s what sports is all about, creating a dialogue. Well that, and large men causing physical harm to each other.
ReplyDeleteIt’s good that you point out the T-Wolves don’t have next year’s first rounder, I was unaware of that. You also raise compelling points about Kaman’s injury history and Ellis being a volume scorer….HOWEVAH…
While Kaman has had his injuries, I don’t think his body is breaking down. He’s just two years removed from playing 76 games and averaging 19 points and 9 rebounds per night. If Minny could get anywhere near that production, it would be a huge win. Even without throwing in a pick, Flynn and Randolph would likely be enough to get Kaman since The Clippers seem to want to make room for Deandre Jordan anyway.
Since center is such a weak position in the NBA right now, getting Kaman would represent a matchup advantage at that spot in 85-90% of your games. Even if you didn’t want to go that route, acquiring a guy like Andris Biedrins or Tyson Chandler would be nice moves and might cost you less in return. The point is, the Wolves need size next to Love. Obviously Love is a great player, but they need somebody with length/athleticism to protect the rim and defend opposing big men.
When your whole team is under the age of 23, from Europe, or both, you don’t have somebody who was really been through the NBA wars, knows how to win, and can show the younger guys how to prepare, study, and win basketball games. Also, getting rid of Johnny Flynn now, while he still has value, would be a good idea. Your idea was to have him as “depth” at the guard spot. This guy was a high lottery pick; he has to be more than your 3rd or 4thguard, so dealing him would be smart.
We all like to live in a world of “potential” where you have a lineup of 21-year-old guys with huge talent and it blossoms into this star-laden team (believe me, I’ve done it in NBA 2k11 and it’s awesome) but that’s what the wolves have been doing since KG left, and what has it gotten them? Seasons of 60, 58, 67, and 65 loses. We’d like to think that Kevin Love will be flicking 40-foot outlet passes to Rubio, who turns into Steve Nash leading the break, and dishing off to Randolph who finally taps his potential and Derrick Williams who makes an instant impact. But in reality, that lineup is full of unproven NBA players.
Your proposed starting lineup—Rubio, Johnson, Derrick Williams, Love, and Randolph— includes only one truly established NBA player in Love. Wes Johnson will probably be good, but we don’t know for sure yet, and he’s only going to be a second year man next year. Williams is talented but is a classic tweener, and as a rookie he won’t come in and turn around a 65-loss team. Plus, as you mentioned, drafting Williams gives you three of the same guy: along with Love and Beasley, undersized power forwards. That’s why I like moving Beasley and the pick for Ellis, and hell, maybe the Warriors would throw Biedrins in with that deal, though you’d probably have to give up Darko (oh no!) to make the salaries close to matching up.
Beasley is not going to accept the 6th man role. He’s 22 years old and is coming off a year where he scored 19 points a game. He has more value as a trade piece than as a 6th man, and I also think he’s not a “winning” type of player, so moving him would be a good idea.
With my trades you undo the logjam at power forward and get what the Wolves need more than anything, some veteran established talent and pieces that fit together better.
Another mistake Wolves fans are making is hitching their whole team to a guy none of us knows much about. I’m not saying Rubio won’t be a good player; I’m just saying none of us have any idea what he will be. By the end of his time in Europe he was coming off the bench and putting up pretty sparse numbers. The NBA is a different game, and he may very well flourish, but I think we need to hold off on the Nash comparisons for now and let him play a game first.
ReplyDeleteI know Wolves fans just want something to get excited about, and Rubio is that something because he is a relative mystery and has that sexy “potential.” But with talk of contraction around the league and so many teams losing money, the Wolves need to do more than score some points and raise a few eyebrows. They need to win, sooner rather than later, and they need to get back near or in the playoffs.
Finally, yes Ellis is a volume scorer, but he is irrefutably a scorer. He’s an All-Star talent and would be the best player the Wolves have had since KG. He and Rubio might actually complement each other, especially in transition. Ellis shot 45% from the field, 36% from three, and 79% from the line. That’s not bad efficiency for a volume scorer. Kobe last year scored just about the exact same as Ellis per game, with the exact same shooting percentage from the field, and a worse percentage from three, and I think the Wolves would take Kobe-like production from their starting two guard.
Whether it’s Kaman, Biedrins, or even Samuel Dalembert, the Wolves need a center with shot blocking ability. I just like Kaman because he’s the best of those three players, but if you want to hold onto Randolph, maybe pursuing a less talented option would be smart, and then Randolph can be a bench contributor while continuing to develop.
The Wolves can continue to sit on a pile of young assets and add more and more draft picks, but eventually they need to flip those assets into established veteran talent, or they’ll continue to lose 60 games per year and continue to see attendance plummet at the Target Center. I just don’ think they can afford to play the waiting game anymore. They need a balance; it is fine to have some young prospects, but your whole team can’t be composed of them. Rubio, Wes Johnson, and Kevin Love is a nice young core, while moving Flynn, Beasley, and maybe Randolph, would be a good way to balance out the roster with some more proven guys.