Week 17 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Redskins at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Lions at Packers	Lions	Packers
Jets at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Panthers at Saints	Saints	Saints
49ers at Rams	49ers	49ers
Bears at Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Titans at Texans	Titans	Titans
Colts at Jaguars	Colts	Jaguars
Bills at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Steelers at Browns	Steelers	Steelers
Chiefs at Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs
Ravens at Bengals	Ravens	Ravens
Seahawks at Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks
Buccaneers at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Chargers at Raiders	Raiders	Chargers
Cowboys at Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys
	Adam	Eric
Week 16 Record	11-5	11-5
Season Standings	147-93	167-73

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams are out of contention, but the Eagles have a much easier time putting up points than Washington.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Redskins 16

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers 

The Packers have literally nothing to play for as they’ve secured homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Lions have a little more at stake as they jockey with Atlanta over which team secures the fifth and sixth seeds.  The goal in securing the fifth seed is not so much so down the road the Lions could host the NFC title game against Atlanta.  It has more to do with who they would play in the first round.  The 5 seed will travel to whoever wins the Giants-Cowboys clash in the first round of the playoffs, while the 6 seed will have to likely travel to New Orleans or possibly San Francisco for their wild card matchup.  Any team, given the option, should prefer to play either of those NFC East teams as opposed to the Niners or Saints.  Given that motivation, the high level of play Matthew Stafford has exhibited lately, and the fact that Green Bay will likely play a lot of backups, I’ll take the Lions in this game.

Prediction: Lions 31 – Packers 23

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

I’ll make this short and sweet.  I think the Dolphins are playing pretty good ball down the stretch, and I think the Jets are ready for this year to be over.  Even with a win the Jets need help to reach the postseason, and I don’t see Mark Sanchez doing enough against a pretty good Dolphins defense.

Prediction: Dolphins 20 – Jets 17

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints 

I love everything about Cam Newton, but the Saints need this game badly, and they look like a focused machine in their last few outings.  I expect a high-scoring affair, but the superior team with more on the line will triumph.

Prediction: Saints 41 – Panthers 28

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

Both teams have something to play for in a sense.  The Niners need to win in order to ensure a first round bye, and a Rams loss could secure them the top pick in next year’s draft.  A first-round bye would be huge for San Francisco, and there’s little chance of them overlooking the Rams since it is the last game of the year, and there’s no opponent per se to look forward to, since that is yet to be determined.  This will be a nice test for the 49ers: not playing a great team, but a game they absolutely have to win, on the road, in the division, against a team with nothing to lose.  Still, I think the 49ers with their solid formula will have enough to separate from the Rams over the course of the game.  Patrick Willis should be back as well, which will be a huge lift for San Francisco.

Prediction: 49ers 23 – Rams 10

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

A really hard game to pick, neither team has anything on the line save for draft positioning.  I don’t think the Bears will have enough without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Johnny Knox to win the game.  It could be the Joe Webb show if Christian Ponder can’t play, but whoever lines up under center will be handing to Toby Gerhart and looking for Percy Harvin early and often.  I’ll take the Vikings at home.

Prediction: Vikings 20 – Bears 16

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 

The Texans are locked into the #3 seed in the AFC, so they have little to play for, save for maybe building some rhythm for the playoffs.  The Titans meanwhile have everything to play for with slim playoff hopes still alive.  There are a number of scenarios in which Tennessee could make the playoffs, and that will be enough to spur them to victory.

Prediction: Titans 27 – Texans 20

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

After losing thirteen in a row to start the year the Colts could potentially win three-straight to finish.  Though that would likely put them out of the running for Andrew Luck, the Colts aren’t going to just mail it in.  Dan Orlovsky right now is a better player than Blaine Gabbert, and Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis should make things difficult for Jacksonville’s already anemic passing attack.  I’ll take the Colts.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Tom Brady knows how much his team needs homefield throughout the playoffs.  New England is bad defensively and doesn’t have a particularly powerful running game, so they need every advantage they can get.  That’s why I expect the Patriots to come out sharp, and while the defense will bend, it won’t break in terms of allowing points.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Bills 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 

I don’t know if Ben Roethlisberger will play, but I know that since the Ravens will be playing at the same time as the Steelers, Pittsburgh will go all out to win.  That means against the lowly Browns, no matter who starts at quarterback, the Steelers will win.

Prediction: Steelers 19 – Browns 9

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos 

Mile High will be going crazy in this game, but I refuse to drink the Tim Tebow sacramental wine.  Fight the power Kyle Orton!

Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Broncos 19

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If the Ravens win, they clinch a first-round bye, and with an added New England loss they would be the AFC’s top seed.  If the Bengals win, they assure themselves of getting into the playoffs.  The Ravens have been a bad road team, and I thought Cincy would go at least 1-3 against the AFC North big brothers of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but the more I look at this game, the more I see Baltimore coming out on top.  It’s a playoff-type atmosphere, and Baltimore is going to want homefield badly, especially if they had to play Pittsburgh again in the playoffs.  I’ll take the Ravens in what should be a great game.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Bengals 17

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals 

Give me Arizona because they’ll be at home, and Seattle is coming of an emotional letdown, an incredibly physical game against San Francisco.

Prediction: Cardinals 17 – Seahawks 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Since the Lions play three hours earlier, the Falcons will likely know whether or not they have anything to play for in terms of seeding.  I’m assuming the Lions win early, meaning the Falcons could not improve their seed, but I still think Atlanta plays this game like it’s meaningful after getting beaten like a drum last week against the Saints.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Buccaneers 13

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Because there is nothing on the line, this is exactly the type of game San Diego usually wins, but I’m going in a different direction.  The Raiders’ defense will play well, Michael Bush will grind out yards, and Sebastian Janikowski will nail a game-winning kick.

Prediction: Raiders 23 – Chargers 20

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

This is just perfect. The game got flexed to Sunday night, and it’s the biggest game of the weekend. The winner claims the NFC East.  The loser is out on its collective ass.  Normally I would take Eli Manning in a big spot over Tony Romo, especially at home, but I think Romo is ready to shed the choke artist label and will connect with Miles Austin and Jason Witten early and often while DeMarcus Ware terrorizes Manning.  I can’t believe I’m saying it, but I’ll take Dallas in a clutch spot.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Giants 24