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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

December 1, 2011

Week 13 Pick-Down

MatchupAdam's Pick Eric's Pick
Eagles at Seahawks
Eagles
Seahawks
Titans at Bills
Titans
Titans
Chiefs at Bears
Bears
Bears
Falcons at Texans
Falcons
Texans
Raiders at Dolphins
Raiders
Dolphins
Broncos at Vikings
Broncos
Broncos
Colts at Patriots
Patriots
Patriots
Bengals at Steelers
Steelers
Steelers
Panthers at Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Jets at Redskins
Jets
Jets
Ravens at Browns
Ravens
Ravens
Cowboys at Cardinals
Cowboys
Cowboys
Packers at Giants
Packers
Packers
Rams at 49ers
49ers
49ers
Lions at Saints
Saints
Saints
Chargers at Jaguars
Chargers
Chargers




Adam
Eric
Week 12 Record
8-8
13-3
Season Standings
106-70
120-56

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks


The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks in the remaining games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
This is a really tough game to pick.  The Eagles are banged up beyond belief.  Mike Vick may or may not play; same goes for Jeremy Maclin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  I also have to think the Eagles are completely deflated after the Patriots walked all over them and all but officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks stand at 4-7—just like Philly—but for a host of different reasons.  The Eagles are a talented team that has just imploded, whereas the Seahawks lack talent across the board.  I think ultimately Seattle will struggle to move the ball against the Eagles while LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson will combine for enough explosive plays to outscore Tarvaris Jackson and company.  Playing at CenturyLink Field I wouldn't be surprised to see Marshawn Lynch have a big day and keep things close, but in the end, I'll side with talent.

Prediction: Eagles 24 – Seahawks 20

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
The one good thing I've done recently in my picks is abandon the Bills.  They almost knocked off the Jets last week, but Stevie Johnson made a host of bonehead plays that probably cost them the game.  Dropping four straight games has to kill Buffalo's morale especially as New England starts to run away with the division.  The Titans keep finding ways to hover at or above .500, and with the Texans down to their third-string quarterback, Tennessee has to feel like they're in the thick of the AFC South race.  Chris Johnson's recent emergence is of huge significance as well.  I'll take the Titans as the team more mentally focused and with more to fight for.
Prediction: Titans 27 – Bills 23

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears
The “Oh Shit, We Lost Our Starting Quarterback Bowl,” recent signee Kyle Orton could potentially start for Kansas City, but with so little time to prepare I doubt he'll be much of an immediate upgrade over Tyler Palko.  I think the Bears are simply better equipped to play without their starting signal caller.  They can ride Matt Forte, a good defense, and home field advantage to the win.
Prediction: Bears 19 – Chiefs 9

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans
If Matt Schaub was healthy I would take the Texans, no doubt.  Down to TJ Yates however, I have no choice but to favor Atlanta, who seems to be slowly putting things together after a poor start to the year.  I expect a heavy dose of Michael Turner to slow down a very good Texans pass rush and for Matt Ryan to be economical with the ball.  That's all Atlanta should have to do playing against a depleted Texans squad.
Prediction: Falcons 23 – Texans 20

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Carson Palmer is playing pretty good football right now, and Michael Bush has done more than a solid job taking the reins for injured Darren McFadden.  The Dolphins play everyone tough these days, but I think Matt Moore will make a few mistakes, and the Raiders will capitalize and dominate the lines of scrimmage on the way to a hard fought win.
Prediction: Raiders 17 – Dolphins 13

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings
Tim Tebow gets a lot of the credit for Denver winning five of its last six games, but more credit is due to the Denver defense, which has played at an elite level.  All Denver wants to do is keep things close and let Tebow work some magic in the fourth quarter.  With their defense teeing off on rookie Christian Ponder all day, the game should definitely be within reach.  Adrian Peterson may or may not play, but at 2-9 I can't see the rationale behind rushing him back to action.  I think Peterson sits and the Broncos keep rolling.
Prediction: Broncos 23 – Vikings 17

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
New England is favored by 21 points.  Who am I to argue?
Prediction: Patriots 35 – Colts 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Andy Dalton and the young Bengals get another shot at redemption against their big brother in the AFC North.  I love what Cincy is doing, but I just don't think they're quite ready to go into Heinz Field and steal a victory.
Prediction: Steelers 21 – Bengals 17

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Really tough game to pick, but I think Tampa is the more complete team all the way around.  Raheem Morris won't let his team slack off.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28 – Panthers 24

New York Jets at Washington Redskins
I think the difference in this game is that the Jets have a little more firepower on offense in what should be a defensive battle.
Prediction: Jets 20 – Redskins 13

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens have shown all year that they have letdown games against inferior opponents, but with ten days to prepare for this game and a chance to really vault to the top of the AFC, I'll take Baltimore.
Prediction: Ravens 20 – Browns 10

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
The Cowboys haven't always been pretty, but they continue to win.  Against the downtrodden Cardinals, that trend should continue.
Prediction: Cowboys 28 – Cardinals 14

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
The NFC East is still within reach for the Giants, but it will be further away after this week.  The defending Super Bowl champs got an emotional win on Thanksgiving, and now Aaron Rodgers has an extra weekend to look over film on how to dissect the Giants.  I look for Green Bay to have its best performance in weeks and for the defense to really start rounding into form.
Prediction: Packers 35 – Giants 23

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
If the Niners win this game, they clinch their division for the first time in nearly a decade.  In addition, they're coming off a bitter Thanksgiving loss and have an extra few days to prepare for the hapless Rams.  Plus, they're playing at home.  I expect the defense to dominate and the offense to bounce back nicely.  Every win is at a premium for San Fran as the Saints are pressuring for the #2 seed.
Prediction: 49ers 30 – Rams 6

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Maybe the most immature team in the league will be without Ndamukong Suh and playing on the road: not a good recipe for success.  Drew Brees will carve up Detroit all day, and the Lions will end up on the losing side of a shootout.
Prediction: Saints 38 – Lions 27

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no real reason to pick San Diego ever again except for maybe the fact that they are playing a bad Jacksonville team that just axed their coach.
Prediction: Chargers 23 – Jaguars 13

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